Author Archive | Rob Weiss

The Final Countdown 11/16

By Rob Weiss on November 16, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

What a great time to be a FCS football fan, eh?

We’re down to one final week to decide all 16 playoff spots.

Here’s a breakdown of last weekends action, as well as a look at the week ahead.

1. – Montana wrapped up the Big Sky autobid with a 38-10 win over Northern Colorado. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be coasting this week. The Griz head to Bozeman to take on in-state rival Montana State. A win should lock up a top 2 seed for the Griz.

2.- Will the Big Sky get 2 teams in? There is a fight for a possible 2nd Big Sky bid into the playoffs Montana State, Weber State, and Eastern Washington are all 5-2 in Big Sky play. Montana State beat Weber State. Weber State beat Eastern Washington, and Eastern Washington beat Montana State.

Montana State and Eastern Washington can each get to 8 wins this weekend, but all three teams can only reach 7 D-I wins. Most prognosticators lean towards Eastern Washington, but realistically any of the three could end up in the field with a win.

3.- Liberty wraps up share of the Big South autobid. Liberty can move their record to 9-2 this weekend and also win the Big South outright with a win over Stony Brook. Will it be enough to get them an at-large bid?

4.- The CAA should end up with 4 playoff bids. Delaware and Massachusetts were for all purposes eliminated this weekend. That leaves Villanova, Richmond, William and Mary, and New Hampshire.

5.- South Carolina State wrapped up the MEAC this weekend with a 37-13 win over Morgan State. By far the best team in the MEAC, but how will they compare to other playoff teams? Florida A&M removed themselves from at-large consideration when they were shut out by Hampton 25-0.

6.- In the MVFC, South Dakota State was in a close game with FBS Minnesota, but fell short, 16-13. The loss moved SDSU to 7-3 on the season. A win over Western Illinois this weekend would put the Jacks in the playoffs.

7.- Southern Illinois wrapped up the 2009 MVFC title on Saturday with a 44-24 win over Missouri State. A win over Southeast Missouri State this weekend should wrap up a top 2 seed for the Salukis.

8.- Northern Iowa kept it’s playoff hopes alive with a 34-0 win over Western Illinois. The Panthers head to Illinois State this weekend with their playoff chances on the line. A loss would eliminate the Panthers from contention.

9.- Eastern Illinois wrapped up the OVC autobid this past weekend with a 49-13 win over Tennessee-Martin. The Panthers can win the OVC outright with a win over Tennessee State on Saturday.

10.- Holy Cross secured the Patriot League’s autobid with a win over Lafayette in a 28-26 shootout. Lafayette may be an outside bubble team come Sunday.

11.- Appalachian State shut down Elon on Saturday, 27-10. The Mountaineers secured the SoCon autobid with the win. Elon fell to 8-2 and will be in the playoffs with a win this weekend over Samford. A loss would put the Phoenix on the bubble.

12.- The Southland race comes down to the final weekend. Stephen F Austin and McNeese State are deadlocked in the standings, with SFA winning the head to head matchup. Both teams will be in the playoffs with a win this weekend. A loss jumbles the situation. Especially if both teams were to lose, in which case Texas State and Southeast Louisiana could come into play.

Playoff Predictions 11/11

By Rob Weiss on November 11, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

Sorry for the lack of writing lately. Things have been pretty busy around here. Anyways, on to the predictions. If the season ended today, this is what I think would go down.

Autobids:

Big Sky: Montana – This seems obvious to me CAA: Villanova – Still have to play Delaware, and will be in the playoffs either way MEAC: South Carolina State – Not sure anyone in the MEAC can touch them this year MVFC: Southern Illinois– This one is all wrapped up OVC: Eastern Illinois – Front runners with 2 weeks left Patriot: Holy Cross – Entirely over-rated in a few polls, but I like HC to win the Patriot. Game against Lafayette on Saturday could decide it. SoCon: Appalachian State – The Mountaineers look like the championship teams again Southland: Stephen F. Austin – This could be debated, but I feel like they are still in control.

At-large bids:

New Hampshire(2nd CAA), Richmond(3rd CAA), William and Mary(4th CAA), Eastern Washington (2nd Big Sky),Elon(2nd SoCon), South Dakota State (2nd MVFC), Northern Iowa (3rd MVFC), McNeese State(2nd Southland),

Last Four In:

Elon, McNeese State, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington

Last Four out:

Massachusetts, Weber State, Northern Arizona, Delaware

Bracket:

Stephen F Austin @ (1) Southern Illinois
Eastern Washington @ McNeese State

Holy Cross @ New Hampshire
William and Mary @ (4) Appalachian State

Eastern Illinois @Northern Iowa
South Dakota State @ (2)Montana

South Carolina State @ Richmond
Elon @ (3)Villanova

Playoff Predictions: 11/2

By Rob Weiss on November 2, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

Things are really confused this week. What on earth happened in the SLC?

Autobids:

Big Sky: Montana – This seems obvious to me CAA: Richmond – Two tough games left, but they are in control MEAC: South Carolina State – Not sure anyone in the MEAC can touch them this year MVFC: South Dakota State – Home field this weekend to decide the conference OVC: Eastern Illinois – I didn’t think they were in the Top 2 in the OVC, but it’s theirs to win Patriot: Holy Cross – A couple teams in the mix, but I like HC SoCon: Appalachian State – The Mountaineers look like the championship teams again Southland: Stephen F. Austin – This could be debated, but I feel like they are still in control

At-large bids:

New Hampshire(2nd CAA), Villanova(3rd CAA), William and Mary(4th CAA), Delaware (5th CAA)Elon(2nd SoCon), Southern Illinois(2nd MVFC), Northern Iowa (3rd MVFC), McNeese State(2nd Southland),

Last Four In:

Elon, McNeese State, Northern Iowa, Delaware

Last Four out:

Massachusetts, Weber State, Northern Arizona, Eastern Washington

Bracket:

South Carolina State @ (1)Richmond
William and Mary @ Appalachian State

Holy Cross @ Delaware
McNeese State @ (4)South Dakota State

New Hampshire @Northern Iowa
Stephen F Austin @ (2)Montana

Eastern Illinois @ Southern Illinois
Elon @ (3)Villanova

Top 25 Summary

By Rob Weiss on November 2, 2009 in FCS Update

FCS Update, Rob Weiss

What a crazy weekend around the FCS world?! I thought that we would see a lot of bubble teams fighting to keep their seasonalive, but instead we saw a lot of them losing to inferior teams.

1. Richmond Spiders at Towson Tigers

My Prediction: Richmond Spiders 49 Towson Tigers 7

Reality: Richmond Spiders 42 Towson Tigers 14

Richmond looks likely to lock up the #1 Seed, but they still have to go through Villanova and William and Mary.

2. Montana Grizzlies vs. 16. Weber State Wildcats

My Prediction: Montana Grizzlies 45 Weber State Wildcats 35

Reality: Montana Grizzlies 31 Weber State Wildcats 10

Much lower scoring and lopsided than I expected. Griz D had a big day and Montana continues their undefeated romp through the Big Sky.

3. Southern Illinois Salukis at Indiana State Sycamores

My Prediction: Southern Illinois Salukis 49 Indiana State Sycamores 10

Reality: Southern Illinois Salukis 33 Indiana State Sycamores 0

The Salukis take care of business. They head to South Dakota State on Saturday. Should be epic.

4. Villanova Wildcats

Bye Week

5. William & Mary Tribe at Rhode Island Rams

My Prediction: William & Mary Tribe 38 Rhode Island Rams 3

Reality: William & Mary Tribe 39 Rhode Island Rams 14

Business as planned for the Tribe. Still in control of their playoff destiny. Season ending match-up with Richmond should be huge.

6. Elon Phoenix at Wofford Terriers

My Prediction: Elon Phoenix 45 Wofford Terriers 17

Reality: Elon Phoenix 34 Wofford Terriers 6

Elon continues to win setting up a great game with App St in 2 weeks.

7. South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Youngstown State Penguins

My Prediction: South Dakota State Jackrabbits 27 Youngstown State Penguins 21

Reality: South Dakota State Jackrabbits 17 Youngstown State Penguins 3

Jacks have a slow day, but keep focused on the task at hand. Now they can look to SIU.

8. New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Northeastern Huskies

My prediction: New Hampshire Wildcats 35 Northeastern Huskies 7

Reality: New Hampshire Wildcats 48 Northeastern Huskies 21

Not much more intersting than predicted.

9. Appalachian State Mountaineers at Furman Paladins

My Prediction: Appalachian State Mountaineers 49 Furman Paladins 24

Reality: Appalachian State Mountaineers 52 Furman Paladins 27

Nailed the spread. App State is playing high quality football and Furman continues to struggle.

10. Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks at Texas State Bobcats

My Prediction: Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks 45 Texas State Bobcats 27

Reality: Texas State Bobcats 28 Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks 7

The Bobcats shut down the SFA offense and throw the SLC race into chaos.

11. Northern Iowa Panthers

Bye Week

12. South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Delaware State Hornets

My Prediction: South Carolina State Bulldogs 35 Delaware State Hornets 10

Reality: South Carolina State Bulldogs 52 Delaware State Hornets 10

We’re getting to the point where we know the Bulldogs are the best in the MEAC. The question now is how high should they be ranked? We won’t find any answers until Thanksgiving weekend.

13. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens vs. James Madison Dukes

My Prediction: James Madison Dukes 31 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 28

Reality: James Madison Dukes 20 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 8

James Madison finally makes me look good. Delaware is skating on thin ice.

14. Central Arkansas Bears at Southeast Louisiana Lions

My Prediction: Central Arkansas Bears 35 Southeast Louisiana Lions 14

Reality: Southeast Louisiana Lions 25 Central Arkansas Bears 21

Another game that turns the SLC upside down. Not that UCA could take the autobid, but they seemed to be a player again.

15. McNeese State Cowboys at Nicholls State Colonels

My Prediction: McNeese State Cowboys 27 Nicholls State Colonels 7

Reality: McNeese State Cowboys 38 Nicholls State Colonels 17

McNeese is the only favorite to win their game in the SLC.

16. Weber State Wildcats at 2. Montana Grizzlies

See No. 2 Montana Grizzlies

17. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Sacramento State Hornets

My Prediction: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 28 Sacramento State Hornets 10

Reality: Sacramento State Hornets 27 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 24

The Lumberjacks fell apart in the second half and opened the door for the Hornets to effectively end their playoff hopes.

18. Cal Poly Mustangs at North Dakota Fighting Sioux

My Prediction: Cal Poly Mustangs 27 North Dakota Fighting Sioux 14

Reality: North Dakota Fighting Sioux 31 Cal Poly Mustangs 17

What on earth? I haven’t been very high on Cal Poly all season. They were always higher in the poll than I had them. But even I had no idea they would lose to a team that just lost at home to a NAIA school 2 weeks ago.

19. Massachusetts Minutemen at Maine Black Bears

My Prediction: Massachusetts Minutemen 14 Maine Black Bears 13

Reality: Maine Black Bears 19 Massachusetts Minutemen 9

After getting off to a great start to the 2009 season, the middle teams in the CAA are throwing away their playoff chances.

20. Eastern Illinois Panthers at Murray State Racers

My Prediction: Eastern Illinois Panthers 24 Murray State Racers 7

Reality: Eastern Illinois Panthers 16 Murray State Racers 10

EIU keeps the OVC autobid in their corner.

21. Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Austin Peay Governors

My Prediction: Jacksonville State Gamecocks 35 Austin Peay Governors 10

Reality: Jacksonville State Gamecocks 28 Austin Peay Governors 10

About as predicted. Neither team has anything to play for.

22. Eastern Washington Eagles vs. Portland State Vikings

My Preditction: Eastern Washington Eagles 42 Portland State Vikings 24

Reality: Eastern Washington Eagles 47 Portland State Vikings 10

Blowout win for the Eagles as expected. EWU looks like the front runner for a 2nd bid from the Big Sky.

23. Holy Cross Crusaders at Fordham Rams

My Prediction: Holy Cross Crusaders 42 Fordham Rams 14

Reality: Holy Cross Crusaders 41 Fordham Rams 27

Holy Cross keeps moving towards the Patriot autobid.

24. Liberty Flames vs. Presbyterian Blue Hose

My Prediction: Liberty Flames 24 Presbyterian Blue Hose 9

Reality: Liberty Flames 55 Presbyterian Blue Hose 19

The Liberty offense goes nuts for 55 points. Still fighting for a playoff bid.

25. Albany Great Danes at Central Connecticut State

My Prediction: Central Connecticut State 35 Albany Great Danes 27

Reality: Central Connecticut State 31 Albany Great Danes 29

CCSU gets the big win, and should be ranked this week.

This week: 17-5

On the season: 58-19

Top 25 Predictions Halloween Edition

By Rob Weiss on October 30, 2009 in FCS Update

FCS Update, Rob Weiss

1. Richmond Spiders at Towson Tigers

Richmond continues their undefeated romp towards the playoffs. CAA gets 4 bids easily, maybe 5 or 6. They should win this game easily, which should lock them into the playoffs with 8 D-I wins.

Richmond Spiders 49 Towson Tigers 7

2. Montana Grizzlies vs. 16. Weber State Wildcats

Big Sky game of the week. If the Griz get through this one, they should win the Big Sky autobid. With 3 losses, Weber really needs to win out to keep their playoff hopes alive. Weber State wins in Missoula are extremely rare.

Montana Grizzlies 45 Weber State Wildcats 35

3. Southern Illinois Salukis at Indiana State Sycamores

Indiana State may have gotten their first win in forever last week, but that won’t change anything tomorrow.

Southern Illinois Salukis 49 Indiana State Sycamores 10

4. Villanova Wildcats

Bye Week

5. William & Mary Tribe at Rhode Island Rams

The Tribe sits in a good spot with just a few weeks left in the season. Only loss on the road to 4. Villanova. Rhode Island’s struggles continue.

William & Mary Tribe 38 Rhode Island Rams 3

6. Elon Phoenix at Wofford Terriers

Rough year for Wofford. This game could get ugly.

Elon Phoenix 45 Wofford Terriers 17

7. South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Youngstown State Penguins

The Jacks are riding high. Undefeated in MVFC play. Something tells me I should think about the upset, but I’ve seen a few SDSU games and can’t pull the trigger.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits 27 Youngstown State Penguins 21

8. New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Northeastern Huskies

Another snoozer in the CAA. So many big games in the CAA that we tend to forget the bottom dwellers. UNH continues to roll.

New Hampshire Wildcats 35 Northeastern Huskies 7

9. Appalachian State Mountaineers at Furman Paladins

Big game in the SoCon. App State looks to stay perfect in the league, while Furman hope to stay in playoff contention. This game could be like the time the guy fell off the horse.

Appalachian State Mountaineers 49 Furman Paladins 24

10. Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks at Texas State Bobcats

Game of the Week in the Southland. SFA looks to knock another contender down while TxSU looks for their piece of the pie. The Jacks are almost there.

Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks 45 Texas State Bobcats 27

11. Northern Iowa Panthers

Bye Week

12. South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Delaware State Hornets

The Bulldogs continue their run to repeat as MEAC champs. The Hornets don’t slow them down.

South Carolina State Bulldogs 35 Delaware State Hornets 10

13. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens vs. James Madison Dukes

Based on names alone, you would normally think this would be a good game. Unfortunately JMU has gone winless in the CAA to this point. This is a game that Delaware needs to watch themselves in. JMU has burned me on a few picks, but I still feel like they have something left.

James Madison Dukes 31 Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 28

14. Central Arkansas Bears at Southeast Louisiana Lions

The Bears continue to be a program to deal with in the SLC.

Central Arkansas Bears 35 Southeast Louisiana Lions 14

15. McNeese State Cowboys at Nicholls State Colonels

Another rough year for the Colonels. Cowboys should have a nice trip home.

McNeese State Cowboys 27 Nicholls State Colonels 7

16. Weber State Wildcats at 2. Montana Grizzlies

See No. 2 Montana Grizzlies

17. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Sacramento State Hornets

The Lumberjacks are looking for an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs. One game at a time, Jacks. NAU wins easy as long as they are focused.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 28 Sacramento State Hornets 10

18. Cal Poly Mustangs at North Dakota Fighting Sioux

Cal Poly needs to win out to make the playoffs. They get the win this weekend.

Cal Poly Mustangs 27 North Dakota Fighting Sioux 14

19. Massachusetts Minutemen at Maine Black Bears

UMass needs the win to continue their playoff hopes. It’s a tossup in my mind.

Massachusetts Minutemen 14 Maine Black Bears 13

20. Eastern Illinois Panthers at Murray State Racers

Eastern Illinois is in the drivers seat to be the OVC playoff rep. They shouldn’t stumble this week.

Eastern Illinois Panthers 24 Murray State Racers 7

21. Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Austin Peay Governors

I have to admit that I didn’t see JSU losing to Eastern Illinois last week. They should have no problem getting back on track.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks 35 Austin Peay Governors 10

22. Eastern Washington Eagles vs. Portland State Vikings

Fresh off their redemption by the NCAA, EWU is now officially in the playoff hunt. Realistically, they need to win out, especially with NAU and Weber St ahead of them in the polls. Shouldn’t be a problem this week.

Eastern Washington Eagles 42 Portland State Vikings 24

23. Holy Cross Crusaders at Fordham Rams

Holy Cross continues their conquest to the 2009 Playoffs.

Holy Cross Crusaders 42 Fordham Rams 14

24. Liberty Flames vs. Presbyterian Blue Hose

Liberty isn’t really in the playoff discussion this year. Playing for pride and to get on a roll as the Big South autobid starts in 2010.

Liberty Flames 24 Presbyterian Blue Hose 9

25. Albany Great Danes at Central Connecticut State

The Battle For Who Should Be In The Bottom of the Poll. Is their a trophy for this game?

Central Connecticut State 35 Albany Great Danes 27

Playoff predictions: 10/24 weekend

By Rob Weiss on October 28, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

Just a few changes this week. also added a last four out section. A few bubble teams in and a few out. The 3 loss teams could move in and out these last few weeks.

Autobids:

Big Sky: Montana CAA: Richmond MEAC: South Carolina State MVFC: South Dakota State OVC: Eastern Illinois Patriot: Holy Cross SoCon: Elon Southland: Stephen F. Austin

At-large bids:

New Hampshire(2nd CAA), Villanova(3rd CAA), William and Mary(4th CAA), Delaware (5th CAA), Appalachian State(2nd SoCon), Southern Illinois(2nd MVFC), McNeese State(2nd Southland), Northern Arizona (2nd Big Sky)

Last Four out:

Northern Iowa, Weber State, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington

Bracket:

South Carolina State @ (1)Richmond
William and Mary @ Appalachian State

Holy Cross @ Delaware
Northern Arizona @ (4)South Dakota State

New Hampshire @ McNeese State
Stephen F austin @ (2)Montana

Eastern Illinois @ Southern Illinois
Elon @ (3)Villanova

Top 25 Summary 10/24

By Rob Weiss on October 26, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

1. Richmond Spiders vs. 12. Massachusetts Minutemen

My Prediction: Richmond Spiders 27 Massachusetts Minutemen 21

Reality: Richmond Spiders 34 Massachusetts Minutemen 12

Richmond shows up ready to play and starts putting the Minutemen to bed. Another UMass loss will seal their playoff fate. Richmond still has to face William and Mary and Villanova before claiming the #1 seed.

2. Montana Grizzlies at Sacramento State Hornets

My Prediction: Montana Grizzlies 38 Sacramento State Hornets 10

Reality: Montana Grizzlies 45 Sacramento State Hornets 30

Montana offense puts up big numbers, but the defense allowed more than I expected. Montana stays undefeated heading into a big Halloween match-up with Weber State.

3. Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Youngstown State Penguins

My Prediction: Southern Illinois Salukis 31 Youngstown State Penguins 20

Reality: Southern Illinois Salukis 27 Youngstown State Penguins 8

Salukis stay undefeated in MVFC play, but lose their starting QB for the season.

4. VillanovaWildcats vs. Rhode Island Rams

My Prediction: Villanova Wildcats 35 Rhode Island Rams 3

Reality: Villanova Wildcats 36 Rhode Island Rams 7

A good prediction score wise. Not sure anyone thought the Rams would compete. Wildcats are almost locked into a playoff spot.

5. Northern Iowa Panthers at 11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits

My Prediction: Northern Iowa Panthers 34 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 24

Reality: South Dakota State Jackrabbits 24 Northern Iowa Panthers 14

Panther offense is shut down, and the Jackrabbits get their biggest win to date. Barring a meltdown we should see the Jacks in the playoffs. UNI is now looking for a lot of help.

6. William & Mary Tribe vs. James Madison Dukes

My Prediction: William & Mary Tribe 28 James Madison Dukes 10

Reality: William & Mary Tribe 24 James Madison Dukes 3

Rough year for the Dukes. Reminds me of their 2005 season coming off of their championship. Tribe looks like they are ready for a playoff run after being left out last year.
7. Elon Phoenix at Chattanooga Mocs

My Prediction: Elon Phoenix 35 Chattanooga Mocs 14

Reality: Elon Phoenix 45 Chattanooga Mocs 10

Elon continues the march towards it’s first FCS playoff bid. Barring a meltdown, their game with App st should decide the SoCon.

8. New Hampshire Wildcats at Hofsta Pride

My Prediction: New Hampshire Wildcats 38 Hofsta Pride 7

Reality: New Hampshire Wildcats 18 Hofsta Pride 10

New Hampshire gets a little scare from Hofstra. UNH looks like they will continue their playoff streak.

9. Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles

Prediction: Appalachian State Mountaineers 38 Georgia Southern Eagles 24

Reality: Appalachian State Mountaineers 52 Georgia Southern Eagles 16

A little more lopsided than I expected. Rough year for GSU. App St-Elon for SoCon title.

10. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats

My Prediction: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 45 Sam Houston State Bearkats 21

Reality: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 42 Sam Houston State Bearkats 3

Wow. Not exactly what I predicted. SFA is looking like they are playoff bound.

11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. 5. Northern Iowa Panthers

See 5. Northern Iowa Panthers
12. Massachusetts Minutemen at 1. Richmond Spiders

See 1. Richmond Spiders
13. Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers

My Prediction: Jacksonville State Gamecocks 31 Eastern Illinois Panthers 14

Reality: Eastern Illinois Panthers 28 Jacksonville State Gamecocks 20

Eastern Illinois takes a big step towards the OVC autobid.

14. South Carolina State Bulldogs at Hampton Pirates

My Prediction: South Carolina State Bulldogs 35 Hampton Pirates 21

Reality: South Carolina State Bulldogs 21 Hampton Pirates 9

The Bulldogs win a lower scoring game than I expected. SCSU is undefeated in FCS play and may have an outside shot at a seed.

15. McNeese State Cowboys vs Southeast Louisiana Lions

My Prediction: McNeese State Cowboys 24 Southeast Louisiana Lions 10

Reality: McNeese State Cowboys 36 Southeast Louisiana Lions 35

A 4th quarter comeback keeps the Cowboys playoff plans on track.

16. Central Arkansas Bears vs. Nicholls State Colonels

My Prediction: Central Arkansas Bears 38 Nicholls State Colonels 7

Reality: Central Arkansas Bears 42 Nicholls State Colonels 13

About as predicted. The Bears look like they will be a power to be reckoned with once they are playoff eligible.

17. Weber State Wildcats at Northern Colorado Bears

My Prediction: Weber State Wildcats 35 Northern Colorado Bears 7

Reality: Weber State Wildcats 28 Northern Colorado Bears 20

A Win is a win, but those of you who predicted a much better game out of Northern Colorado were right on. I knew UNC was improved, but didn’t think they’d make a game of it.
18. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens BYE

19. Cal Poly Mustangs vs. Dixie State (D-II)

My Prediction: Cal Poly Mustangs 28 Dixie State 7

Reality: Cal Poly Mustangs 44 Dixie State 14

Cal Poly picks up the D-II win. The Mustangs need to win out and get a lot of help in order to make the playoffs.

20. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Idaho State Bengals

My Prediction: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 45 Idaho State Bengals 10

Reality: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 40 Idaho State Bengals 12

Another game where I was almost right on. Northern Arizona’s playoff hopes look better and better each week, although they do face a tough 3 game stretch at the end of the season. They go to Ole Miss, then to Weber State, and then finish with Eastern Washington at home.

21. Colgate Raiders at Holy Cross Crusaders

My Prediction: Holy Cross Crusaders 35 Colgate Raiders 17

Reality: Holy Cross Crusaders 42 Colgate Raiders 28

Holy Cross establishes themselves as the leader for the Patriot autobid.

22. Furman Paladins at The Citadel Bulldogs

My Prediction: Furman Paladins 24 The Citadel Bulldogs 17

Reality: The Citadel Bulldogs 38 Furman Paladins 28

Furman is on the edge of elimination. It’s not looking good for the Paladins. Big win for the Bulldogs.

23. Eastern Washington Eagles vs. Montana State Bobcats

My Prediction: Eastern Washington Eagles 38 Montana State Bobcats 21

Reality: Eastern Washington Eagles 35 Montana State Bobcats 24

About as close as you can get on the predictions. Keeps EWU’s playoff hopes alive (if they can win their appeal with the NCAA). MSU looks to play spoiler to Montana and NAU.

24. Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Austin Peay Governors

My Prediction: Eastern Kentucky Colonels 35 Austin Peay Governors 7

Reality: Austin Peay Governors 24 Eastern Kentucky Colonels 20

Austin Peay pulls the upset and may have knocked EKU out of the playoffs.
25. Liberty Flames at Charleston Southern Buccaneers

My Prediction: Liberty Flames 28 Charleston Southern Buccaneers 10

Reality: Liberty Flames 20 Charleston Southern Buccaneers 13

My record this week: 18-4

On the season: 41-14

Top 25 Predictions for 10/24

By Rob Weiss on October 22, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

1. Richmond Spiders vs. 12. Massachusetts Minutemen

Richmond has played quite a few close games this season. This should be another one. Massachusetts is looking for a big win to guarantee a playoff spot. Close, but no cigar.

Richmond Spiders 27 Massachusetts Minutemen 21

2. Montana Grizzlies at Sacramento State Hornets

Montana is still undefeated on the season. No reason this should change on Saturday unless The Griz are too busy thinking about their Halloween match-up with Weber State.

Montana Grizzlies 38 Sacramento State Hornets 10
3. Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Youngstown State Penguins

Southern Illinois is riding high from last weeks’ win over UNI. The MVFC is theirs for the taking. SIU stays focused and wins without much of a scare.

Southern Illinois Salukis 31 Youngstown State Penguins 20
4. VillanovaWildcats vs. Rhode Island Rams

Villanova posted a shutout on James Madison last week. I could see a second shutout in a row this weekend.

VillanovaWildcats 35 Rhode Island Rams 3
5. Northern Iowa Panthers at 11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits

The Panthers are reeling after last weeks loss to Southern Illinois. If the Panthers play like they did last week they will lose. I think they right the ship.

Northern Iowa Panthers 34 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 24
6. William & Mary Tribe vs. James Madison Dukes

The Tribe looks to keep the season going in the right direction. The Dukes are looking for anything at this point. The season outlooked changed for James Madison very quickly. William and Mary is too much for the Dukes to handle.

William & Mary Tribe 28 James Madison Dukes 10

7. Elon Phoenix at Chattanooga Mocs

Elon heads to Chatty coming off of a bye week. The Mocs are much better than expected in 2009. We’ll see how improved Chattanooga is this week.

Elon Phoenix 35 Chattanooga Mocs 14
8. New Hampshire Wildcats at Hofsta Pride

New Hampshire suffered its first loss last week. Won’t be two in a row.

New Hampshire Wildcats 38 Hofsta Pride 7
9. Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles

Who knows what to expect in this rivalry?

Appalachian State Mountaineers 38 Georgia Southern Eagles 24

10. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats

Lumberjacks are coming off of a huge win at Central Arkansas. They keep their SLC streak going in this one.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 45 Sam Houston State Bearkats 21

11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. 5. Northern Iowa Panthers

See 5. Northern Iowa Panthers
12. Massachusetts Minutemen at 1. Richmond Spiders

See 1. Richmond Spiders
13. Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers

The Gamecocks aim to prove they are the best OVC team in 2009. I think they do. Unfortunately they are ineligible for the playoffs.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks 31 Eastern Illinois Panthers 14

14. South Carolina State Bulldogs at Hampton Pirates

Current MEAC leader takes on the historical MEAC leader. Should make for a decent game.

South Carolina State Bulldogs 35 Hampton Pirates 21
15. McNeese State Cowboys vs Southeast Louisiana Lions

McNeese looks to improve their resume on the way to a playoff birth.

McNeese State Cowboys 24 Southeast Louisiana Lions 10
16. Central Arkansas Bears vs. Nicholls State Colonels

Nicholls State is having a rough year. It only gets worse as Central Arkansas gets back in a groove after their close loss to SFA.

Central Arkansas Bears 38 Nicholls State Colonels 7
17. Weber State Wildcats at Northern Colorado Bears

The Bears will be lucky to keep it within 3 scores.

Weber State Wildcats 35 Northern Colorado Bears 7
18. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens BYE
19. Cal Poly Mustangs vs. Dixie State (D-II)

Cal Poly Mustangs 28 Dixie State 7
20. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Idaho State Bengals

NAU is fighting for a playoff spot. Could get ugly.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 45 Idaho State Bengals 10
21. Colgate Raiders at Holy Cross Crusaders

Patriot playoff bid on the line. Colgate is exposed.

Holy Cross Crusaders 35 Colgate Raiders 17
22. Furman Paladins at The Citadel Bulldogs

Furman needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt.

Furman Paladins 24 The Citadel Bulldogs 17
23. Eastern Washington Eagles vs. Montana State Bobcats

Should be a battle for 2nd place in the Big Sky. This game is part of the battle.

Eastern Washington Eagles 38 Montana State Bobcats 21
24. Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Austin Peay Governors

The Colonels keep fighting for the OVC autobid.

Eastern Kentucky Colonels 35 Austin Peay Governors 7
25. Liberty Flames at Charleston Southern Buccaneers

Liberty Flames 28 Charleston Southern Buccaneers10

Playoff Predictions 10/21

By Rob Weiss on October 21, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

Quite a few upsets this last weekend.

Autobids:

Big Sky: Montana CAA: Richmond MEAC: South Carolina State MVFC: Southern Illinois OVC: Eastern Kentucky Patriot: Holy Cross SoCon: Elon Southland: Stephen F. Austin

At-large bids:

New Hampshire(2nd CAA), Villanova(3rd CAA), William and Mary(4th CAA), Appalachian State(2nd SoCon), Northern Iowa(2nd MVFC), South Dakota State(3rd MVFC), McNeese State(2nd Southland), Northern Arizona (2nd Big Sky)

Bracket:

South Carolina State @ (1)Richmond
Eastern Kentucky@ Appalachian State

Northern Arizona @ Northern Iowa
Holy Cross @ (4)Southern Illinois

Stephen F. Austin @ (2)Montana
New Hampshire @ McNeese State

William and Mary @ South Dakota State
Elon @ (3)Villanova

Top 25 Summary 10/17

By Rob Weiss on October 18, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

1. Richmond Spiders at Maine Black Bears

My Prediction: Richmond 38 Maine 17

Reality: Richmond 38 Maine 21

Pretty close on this prediction. Richmond didn’t show up for the first half but put the Black Bears away in the second half. No one has had an easy time in Orono this season.

2. Northern Iowa Panthers vs. 5. Southern Illinois Salukis

My Prediction: Northern Iowa 38 Southern Illinois 35

Reality: Southern Illinois 27 Northern Iowa 20

Not the offensive shootout I was predicting. This was a typical game in this series, other than the fact that the visiting team won for the first time in 13 games. The Southern Illinois offense was clicking for most of the game and had great special teams. The Panther defense held their own (1 TD was an INT return, and another was after a special teams fumble on the UNI 7). I look for both of these teams to make the quarterfinals this year.

3. New Hampshire Wildcats at 20. Massachusetts Minutemen

My Prediction: New Hampshire 27 Massachusetts 21

Reality: Massachusetts23 New Hampshire 17

What a crazy game?! New Hampshire drove in the last minute to the UMass 13, but couldn’t score. I expected this game to be close, but not come down to the last play. UMass is fighting their way back into playoff contention. 5 CAA teams looks like a lock at this point. 6 might be a possibility.

4. Montana Grizzlies vs. 21. Eastern Washington Eagles

My Prediction: Montana 35 Eastern Washington 28

Reality: Montana 41 Eastern Washington 34

Not too far off on this one. Montana pulls off the 7 pt win. Montana faces Weber State on Halloween. Should be a shootout.

5. Southern Illinois Salukis at 2. Northern Iowa Panthers

see 2. Northern Iowa Panthers
6. Villanova Wildcats at 19. James Madison Dukes

My Prediction: James Madison 24 Villanova 20

Reality: Villanova 27 James Madison 0

Way off on this one. Apparently James Madison forgot they had a game today. Very suprising with the way they’ve played everyone else this season. Good bounce back for Villanova.

7. William & Mary Tribe BYE

8. Elon Phoenix BYE

9. Central Arkansas Bears vs. 16. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

My Prediction: Central Arkansas 34 Stephen F. Austin 31

Reality: Stephen F. Austin 33 Central Arkansas 30

Close game as predicted, different winner. Stephen F Austin puts themselves in the driver’s seat for the SLC autobid.

10. Appalachian State Mountaineers at Wofford Terriers

My Prediction: Appalachian State 35 Wofford 10

Reality: Appalachian State 44 Wofford 34

Much closer game than predicted. App St stays undefeated in SoCon play.

11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. North Dakota State Bison

My Prediction: South Dakota State 35 North Dakota State 17

Reality: South Dakota State 28 North Dakota State 13

North Dakota State continues their slide. Jackrabbits face Northern Iowa in a game that could end the playoff hopes of the loser.

12. Jacksonville State Gamecocks BYE

13. South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. 22. Florida A&M Rattlers

My Prediction: South Carolina State 24 Florida A&M 14

Reality: South Carolina State 35 Florida A&M 20

Bulldogs are on their way to the playoffs. No one else should stand in their way.

14. Weber State Wildcats vs Sacremento State Hornets

My Prediction: Weber State 24 Sacremento State 14

Reality: Weber State 49 Sacremento State 10

The Wildcats win by a much larger margin that I predicted. Montana game is looming large in two weeks. Loss to Montana State could haunt them.

15. McNeese State Cowboys vs. Northwestern State Demons

My Prediction: McNeese 38 Northwestern State 7

Reality: McNeese 51 Northwestern State 23

Much higher scoring than I figured. McNeese stays in the playoff hunt.

16. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at 9. Central Arkansas Bears

see 9. Central Arkansas Bears

17. Cal Poly Mustangs

My Prediction: Southern Utah 24 Cal Poly 21

Reality: Cal Poly 24 Southern Utah 23

Great game, came down to the wire. Cal Poly stays on top of the Great West.
18. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens at Towson Tigers

My Prediction: Delaware 35 Towson 13

Reality: Delaware 49 Towson 21

Delaware is really clicking now. Fighting for the 5th CAA bid.
19. James Madison Dukes vs. 6. Villanova Wildcats

See 6. Villanova Wildcats

20. Massachusetts Minutemen vs. 3. New Hampshire Wildcats

See 3. New Hampshire Wildcats
21. Eastern Washington Eagles at 4. Montana Grizzlies

See 4. Montana Grizzlies
22. Florida A&M Rattlers at 13. South Carolina State Bulldogs

See 13. South Carolina State Bulldogs
23. Colgate Raiders vs. Georgetown

My Prediction: Colgate 28 Georgetown 3

Reality: Colgate 31 Georgetown 14

A little bit closer than I thought. Same result.

24. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Portland State Vikings

My Prediction: Northern Arizona 38 Portland State 14

Reality: Northern Arizona 44 Portland State 23

The Lumberjacks are in the hunt for a playoff bid. 2nd place in the Big Sky should get them there.

25. Furman Paladins vs. Samford Bulldogs

My Prediction: Samford 24 Furman 17

Reality: Furman 26 Samford 24

Furman keeps their playoff hopes alive.

My record this week: 10-6

On the season: 23-10

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