Playoff Predictions 11/18

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

Not much has changed since last week. If the right teams win on Saturday, the bracket should be a pretty easy pick for the committee. The bracket will release at 3pm EST on ESPNNews if my info is correct.


Big Sky: Montana – locked up            CAA: Villanova – Still have to play Delaware, and will be in the playoffs either way         MEAC: South Carolina State – locked up       MVFC: Southern Illinois– locked up       OVC: Eastern Illinois  – locked up        Patriot: Holy Cross – locked up    SoCon: Appalachian State – locked up       Southland: Stephen F. Austin – locked up with a win over winless Northwestern State

At-large bids:

New Hampshire(2nd CAA) – at 9-2 or 8-3,     Richmond(3rd CAA) – 9-2 at worst,     William and Mary(4th CAA) – 9-2 at worst    , Eastern Washington (2nd Big Sky) in for sure with a win and a loss by Montana State     , Elon(2nd SoCon) – in with a win over Samford,     South Dakota State (2nd MVFC) in with a win over Western Illinois,      Northern Iowa (3rd MVFC) in with a win over Illinois State,  McNeese State(2nd Southland) in with a win over Central Arkansas,

Last Four In:

 Elon, McNeese State, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington

Last Four out:

Liberty, Weber State, Montana State, Delaware


Eastern Illinois @ (1) Southern Illinois 
Elon @ McNeese State

Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State     
William and Mary @ (4) Appalachian State

New Hampshire @Northern Iowa
Stephen F Austin @ (2)Montana

Richmond @ South Carolina State
Holy Cross @ (3)Villanova


Bracket Analysis:

The bracket gets harder and harder as seeds change and the balance of east to west changes.

Eastern Illinois to Southern Illinois seems like a no brainer. Has happened many times in the past 10 years. 

Elon at McNeese is a bit of a stretch. Might change before my final bracket on Sunday.

Eastern Washington at South Dakota State makes sense to me. 2nd place team from the MVFC with good attendance gets another Western team.

William and Mary to Boone looks doable.

UNH @ UNI? Why not? The two have met in the playoffs 4 out of the last 5 years. Sorry Panther and Wildcat fans.

SFA to Missoula. SLC traditionally gets sent to the Griz. Especially when Cal Poly isn’t in. McNeese would bid more money so the NCAA sticks SFA on the road.

Richmond at SC State? SC State should be at home, whether or not they are remains to be seen. Especially with their AD pushing for the Heritage Bowl.

Holy Cross to Nova should be the matchup.


If this were the bracket, my quarter predictions would be:


Elon @ (1) Southern Illinois

South Dakota State at (4) Appalachian State

New Hampshire @ (2) Montana

Richmond @ (3) Villanova



(4) Appalachian State @ (1) Southern Illinois

New Hampshire @ Richmond



Appalachian State vs. Richmond



Appalachian State


Appalachian State appears to be clicking at just the right time. I feel like Armanti Edwards is one of the few quarterbacks in FCS football that can really take over a game. There are some good quarterbacks, but Armanti may be the only one who can single handedly win games.

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31 Responses to Playoff Predictions 11/18

  1. Chet November 18, 2009 at 7:34 am #

    If ASU were to win through this bracket, I’d say they will have earned it. There are 5 or 6 legit contenders this year.

  2. Will November 18, 2009 at 9:20 am #

    Will the FCS do same thing this year to Liberty that that have done the past two years. Last year you had two four lost teams get into the field and I have no doubt that Liberty would have beat them. If Liberty wins this Sunday they would won their conference outright for the third straight year.

  3. Josh November 18, 2009 at 10:30 am #

    How does new hampshire get the second caa birth after just losing to W&M? the winner of the richmond/w&m game should be second, with the loser 3rd, UNH 4th.

    • Rob Weiss November 18, 2009 at 10:38 am #

      It’s irrelevant really. There’s no particular order to it, just stating how many bids the CAA gets. Once they’re in, it’s left up to bids and pairings.

      • Josh November 18, 2009 at 10:55 am #

        gotcha. do you think the caa will only get one first round home game? or could they be in line for more?

        • Rob Weiss November 18, 2009 at 4:14 pm #

          At least one. Still possible for the CAA to get 2 seeds. Richmond and New Hampshire should be on the road unless they get seeded.

  4. Falkin November 18, 2009 at 10:31 am #

    Historically, Eastern DOMINATES the first round. look it up. nice brackett & predictions.

  5. Michael Hancock November 18, 2009 at 12:14 pm #

    okay…..really….what has to happen for liberty to get in this. im tellin yall theyll surprise you.

    • Rob Weiss November 18, 2009 at 4:16 pm #

      Beat James Madison? Barring a LOT of teams losing, I just don’t see Liberty in the field.

      I know you feel like they are getting screwed, but keep in mind Liberty knew their situation. They had the choices to schedule who they wanted. They could’ve have scheduled their way in, and could’ve gotten in this year with a win over James Madison. Unfortunately lesser teams sometimes have to prove themselves more than the known commodities.

      • Michael Hancock November 18, 2009 at 9:15 pm #

        I understand that and we had that game until the end we had a rough ending to that game not sure what happened. But we put up one heck of a fight against West Virginia. i mean i see what your saying. just hopin for some luck.

        • Josh November 20, 2009 at 8:54 am #

          I was at the Liberty-JMU game and I agree it was Liberty’s right up till the end. Liberty has tremendous talent and is starting to get more respect, they just need to start winning those big out-of-conference games. Big South should be getting an autobid in the near future, which I’m sure will belong to Liberty most years.

          • Rob Weiss November 20, 2009 at 10:02 am #

            Big South gets an auto bid next year.

  6. Screamin_Eagle174 November 18, 2009 at 12:25 pm #


    EWU, Weber, MSU, UNI, McNeese, and Elon would probably all have to lose for Liberty to get in.

  7. Michael Hancock November 18, 2009 at 12:32 pm #

    all of them? blah. well thats a slim chance. well 3 yrs in a row conference champions and still no1 wants to give LU the shot they deserve.

  8. Will November 18, 2009 at 1:25 pm #

    I did not know that we had mid-majors at the FCS level but apparently we do. How many times will the FCS playoffs selection committee will reward these so-called power conferences? Last year LU should have definitely been in and were not; now they face the same situation this year. Now if LU loses this Saturday than this is all of a moot point but if they win they have just cause to be upset. Their loses were to West Virginia and James Madison. Can the FCS give a little love to LU? Next year this will not matter as the Big South Champion will get a automatic bid.

  9. Terry V November 19, 2009 at 9:56 am #

    Why is it that UNI is ranked higher than SDSU? Didn’t SDSU beat them earlier this year; both lost to the number one Sulukis.

    • Rob Weiss November 24, 2009 at 11:51 am #

      A lot of it has to do with when you lose and where you start the preseason.

  10. Terry V November 19, 2009 at 11:52 am #

    And it boggles my mind to think that UN would have a home playoff game over SDSU? Can someone answer this for me

    • Rob Weiss November 24, 2009 at 11:51 am #

      Home games have nothing to do with record or ranking. It’s a bidding process.

  11. Craig November 19, 2009 at 3:12 pm #

    Montana is the team of the decade, in case you aren’t aware no team has won more games since 2000. Like them or not, they will show up in the playoffs as they have for a record 17 seasons. I can see why you east coast fans and voters have no respect for the Griz since they usually end some teams from the east season in convincing fashion.

    If they beat the bobcats this saturday and don’t earn a top two seed, this entire voting thing is 100% east coast bias. Hey voters, get a clue and pick a winner, because even if they sometimes win ugly, a win is a W and who else is standing at 10 and oh right now? I rest my case. GO GRIZ!

    • Rob Weiss November 24, 2009 at 11:52 am #

      If this is aimed at me, I am well educated on Montana. I have watched 4 games this year.

  12. Michael Hancock November 20, 2009 at 11:24 pm #


    • Rob Weiss November 21, 2009 at 3:13 am #

      Interesting write-up. Sounds like he also has Liberty just outside the field. I think the Flames need a big jump in ranking and GPI to sneak in.

  13. Michael Hancock November 21, 2009 at 3:17 am #

    there RIGHT there. just need a little push

  14. Will November 21, 2009 at 2:07 pm #

    No Playoff for Liberty this year after losing to SB.

  15. Michael Hancock November 21, 2009 at 2:08 pm #


  16. Michael Hancock November 21, 2009 at 2:20 pm #


  17. Jim Christensen November 10, 2011 at 7:33 pm #

    Am I missing something, I don’t see #1 North Dakota State listed in your brackets

    • Jim Christensen November 10, 2011 at 7:35 pm #

      Am I missing something, I don’t see #1 North Dakota State listed in your brackets

      Oops!!! OLD stuff

  18. JD Shinn November 13, 2011 at 8:46 pm #

    What if Portland State beats Weber State next weekend? Will the Vikes have a chance to get in?

  19. Gilbert November 21, 2011 at 2:57 pm #

    The Big Sky will have a lot to say again this year and next year with expansion it will be a powerhouse.

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