Illinois State is probably playing the best of the remaining 4 teams right now. Their road credentials were questionable, but that all went away with a convincing win on the red field in Cheney. New Hampshire will have to play this whole game like they played the second half against Chattanooga to win this. If they sleepwalk through the first half again, a late surge probably won't be enough.
Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:
Yes New Hampshire did a much better job of slowing down Illinois State's offense than I though they would; though I do think that Illinois State left maybe 10 to 14 points on the field. Two penetrations inside the 5 yard line yielded only 3 points. Part of that was UNH playing good defense but part of it was ISU screwing up. Like the quarterback doing that think I hate to see players do and trying to stick the ball over the goal line then getting it knocked loose.
One thing I'm really glad about is that UNH did not go on to score after that receiver clearly fumbled and for some reason the booth didn't review it. What were they doing up there? It's not like UNH hurried up and ran another play. They had plenty of time to stop the game and review the play. If UNH would've gone on to score on that drive and win the game we'd know Illinois State got robbed by virtue of that being called an incomplete pass and the booth not reviewing it.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star? Deep Purple: No One Came
I said it after the playoff field was announced. NDSU should have been the #1 seed and UNH #2.
NDSU 11-1/7-1, thumped a bad Big-12, 3-1 vs playoff teams (played 3 of 4 MVFC playoffs teams, ironically only dnp Il St, beat Montana OOC).
UNH 10-1/8-0, got thumped by a MAC team, 1-0 vs playoff teams (beat UR, the 2 CAA teams they missed were Villanova and JMU).
If the committee had seeded like they should have, would have been semis #5 ILSU @ #1 NDSU and SHSU @ #2 UNH (with a John Roberston concussion away from VU @ UNH).
Ironically NDSU being the #2 seed had the much less difficult semi final game than UNH, and unlike some seasons, you could say the 2 best teams are in the NC game.
JMU Football:
4 Years FBS: 40-11 (.784). Highest winning percentage & least losses of all of G5 2022-2025.
Sun Belt East Champions: 2022, 2023, 2025
Sun Belt Champions: 2025
Top 25 ranked: 2022, 2023, 2025
CFP: 2025
I did think it strange that UNH was seeded #1 when they lost to Toledo while NDSU beat Iowa State. If you'd gone by power ratings NDSU would've been the #1 seed. Of course all four top seeds might've been MVFC teams if you'd have gone by power ratings, depending on which power ratings you used.
And when you look at how interconference play went this year that really doesn't seem absurdly unrealistic. Pretty much the only FCS teams to beat Missouri Valley teams this year were other Missouri Valley teams. Just two exceptions.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star? Deep Purple: No One Came