Could be the year for two teams in one league in title game

[JohnStOnge]

This could be the year that two teams from the same conference play in the championship game. There have been 36 previous I-AA/FCS tournaments and none ever ended with teams from the same conference playing in the championship game. In the early days it could not have happened because there were only four teams. But as time went on it became possible. Yet it never happened.

Now, I think, it might be more probable than not tha that it will happen. Today was the first time I watched Illinois State this year. To me they look better than New Hampshire. A lot better. A lot more talented.

And North Dakota State will be playing a team that probably wouldn't be in the semifinals if their quarterfinal opponent hadn't played without its starting quarterback.

This is as high a chance of it happening as I've ever seen.

[Pwns]

I'm not convinced Illinois State is favored over UNH....they beat UTC and IMO they showed they were legit by running all over Indiana State.

This could also be the year UNH gets over the hump and makes it to the championship game. I don't know if any FCS team has had more good teams and failed to even get to the NC game.

[JohnStOnge]

I'm not convinced Illinois State is favored over UNH....they beat UTC and IMO they showed they were legit by running all over Indiana State.

This could also be the year UNH gets over the hump and makes it to the championship game. I don't know if any FCS team has had more good teams and failed to even get to the NC game.

I tried looking at the page of lines at http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foo ... /offshore/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and as I type they don't have lines up for the FCS semis yet. However, I expect that ISU will be a relatively narrow favorite. They're a 5 point favorite by Sagarin and a 5.5 favorite by Massey (to the nearest half point) and lines are usually pretty similar to spreads of those power ratings. The favorite by power ratings like that is the favorite by the line the overwhelming majority of the time. In fact I suspect that the people who set opening lines use power ratings to do it nowadays.

I think Illinois State looks awfully talented. Way more talented looking to me than New Hampshire. Additionally, they tied for the Missouri Valley championship. We had a thread about not talking about how tough the Missouri Valley is this year until we see how they do in the playoffs. Well, as of now that league is 5-1 against teams from other conferences in the playoffs and the one loss was by a team that finished 4-4 in Missouri Valley Conference play. You add the playoff record to the 23-1 Mvemjsunpx had in the week13 breakdown he did and that puts the MVC at 28-2 versus other FCS leagues this year.

If you go by Sagarin's conference strength ratings the Missouri Conference rating is 11.62 points above the second place conference at 62.81. That puts them way separated form the pack. The next five rated conferences are all within a 6.69 point range from 44.50 through 51.19. Consistent with the impression that, this year, the Missouri Valley Conference is at a totally different level than every other FCS league.

[JohnStOnge]

BTW for fun I used Sagarin ratings to estimate a probability that we'll have two MVC teams in the championship game and it came out at 50:50. So no guarantees. But 50:50 can very realistically happen.

[htownbearkat]

too bad the Bearkats fu$%^& it up or you would of had a really cool post.

we all know you had it pre-written caa vs caa or mvc vs mvc.

[JohnStOnge]

too bad the Bearkats fu$%^& it up or you would of had a really cool post.

we all know you had it pre-written caa vs caa or mvc vs mvc.

Actually, what happened with respect to Villanova and Sam Houston State increases the probability. Villanova was the better team but lost due to having its all world quarterback out. That increases the probability that North Dakota State will win. Nothing is certain. But it increases the probability. North Dakota State gets the benefit of having its toughest potential opponent eliminated in the quarterfinals due to a key injury.

North Dakota State would be facing a tougher opponent if it were facing Villanova with its starting QB than it's going to be facing when it faces Sam Houston State. In fact, North Dakota State is in the interesting position of facing what is probably the weakest opponent it's played so far in the playoffs in the semifinals. Both South Dakota State and Coastal Carolina were probably better teams than Sam Houston State is.

[htownbearkat]

too bad the Bearkats fu$%^& it up or you would of had a really cool post.

we all know you had it pre-written caa vs caa or mvc vs mvc.

Actually, what happened with respect to Villanova and Sam Houston State increases the probability. Villanova was the better team but lost due to having its all world quarterback out. That increases the probability that North Dakota State will win. Nothing is certain. But it increases the probability. North Dakota State gets the benefit of having its toughest potential opponent eliminated in the quarterfinals due to a key injury.

North Dakota State would be facing a tougher opponent if it were facing Villanova with its starting QB than it's going to be facing when it faces Sam Houston State. In fact, North Dakota State is in the interesting position of facing what is probably the weakest opponent it's played so far in the playoffs in the semifinals. Both South Dakota State and Coastal Carolina were probably better teams than Sam Houston State is.

Capt obvious, really? did you really need that much dribble to say that NDST was the favorite? so where do you stand on your prediction of Sam Houston's' regression to SLC mediocrity at this point?

[Aho Old Guy]

If John is predicting an all MVC final, I look forward to seeing UNH and SHSU in Frisco

[JohnStOnge]

Capt obvious, really? did you really need that much dribble to say that NDST was the favorite? so where do you stand on your prediction of Sam Houston's' regression to SLC mediocrity at this point?

I think that prediction became less likely to be correct for the immediate future as soon as they got KC Keeler as head coach.

But it's still the case that any reasonable, objective person who follows FCS football would believe that it's not likely that Sam Houston State would be in the semifinals right now if Villanova had not had to play the game without its now Payton Award winning quarterback. I predicted that Villanova would pound Sam Houston State. Of COURSE the likelihood of that happening changes significantly when it turns out that a quarterback who was head and shoulders above everybody else in FCS in passing efficiency this year, had 34 TDs to 3 interceptions, rushed for over a 1,000 yards, and scored 12 rushing TDs (i.e., accounted for 46 touchdowns) isn't going to play.

I don't think it should be all that hard to believe that my confidence in Villanova pounding Sam Houston State would've been a LOT lower if I'd known their dominant player at the quarterback position wasn't going to play.

[JohnStOnge]

If John is predicting an all MVC final, I look forward to seeing UNH and SHSU in Frisco

I didn't pull the trigger on a prediction but see my comments in the lead up to the Illinois State and Eastern Washington game where I said it'd be interesting because it was a team from a much tougher conference (MVC) playing at a team from a weaker conference. Also see my comments leading up to the Sam Houston State vs. Jacksonville State game about how Sam Houston State got a good draw because Jacksonville State was way overrated as a 3 seed.

In any case I didn't predict an all MVC final. I said there's a good chance. About 50:50. The reason it's interesting is that it's never happened before in all these year. Never been a championship game matching two teams from the same conference and this year there's a realistic chance of it happening. Most of the time there isn't ANY chance of it happening at this point. Most of the time you don't have two teams from the same conference with one in each semifinal. It's happened. But not that often.

This time you not only have two teams from the same conference with one each semifinal but I think both are favorites. It's got to happen sooner or later and it's interesting to see if this will be the year.

BTW: I will no longer say Illinois State is the favorite if they for some reason lose their starting quarterback prior to the game. That guy is very good. Never even heard of him before that game but that guy is a dominant player.

[htownbearkat]

If John is predicting an all MVC final, I look forward to seeing UNH and SHSU in Frisco

I didn't pull the trigger on a prediction but see my comments in the lead up to the Illinois State and Eastern Washington game where I said it'd be interesting because it was a team from a much tougher conference (MVC) playing at a team from a weaker conference. Also see my comments leading up to the Sam Houston State vs. Jacksonville State game about how Sam Houston State got a good draw because Jacksonville State was way overrated as a 3 seed.

In any case I didn't predict an all MVC final. I said there's a good chance. About 50:50. The reason it's interesting is that it's never happened before in all these year. Never been a championship game matching two teams from the same conference and this year there's a realistic chance of it happening. Most of the time there isn't ANY chance of it happening at this point. Most of the time you don't have two teams from the same conference with one in each semifinal. It's happened. But not that often.

This time you not only have two teams from the same conference with one each semifinal but I think both are favorites. It's got to happen sooner or later and it's interesting to see if this will be the year.

BTW: I will no longer say Illinois State is the favorite if they for some reason lose their starting quarterback prior to the game. That guy is very good. Never even heard of him before that game but that guy is a dominant player.

Also see his predictions about the Bearkats being a one trick pony. He was positive that once Fritz, Bell and Flanders were gone SHSU would fall back to a once every 10 year factor. An 11 win season and another trip to the semis later...

[htownbearkat]

Capt obvious, really? did you really need that much dribble to say that NDST was the favorite? so where do you stand on your prediction of Sam Houston's' regression to SLC mediocrity at this point?

I think that prediction became less likely to be correct for the immediate future as soon as they got KC Keeler as head coach.

But it's still the case that any reasonable, objective person who follows FCS football would believe that it's not likely that Sam Houston State would be in the semifinals right now if Villanova had not had to play the game without its now Payton Award winning quarterback. I predicted that Villanova would pound Sam Houston State. Of COURSE the likelihood of that happening changes significantly when it turns out that a quarterback who was head and shoulders above everybody else in FCS in passing efficiency this year, had 34 TDs to 3 interceptions, rushed for over a 1,000 yards, and scored 12 rushing TDs (i.e., accounted for 46 touchdowns) isn't going to play.

I don't think it should be all that hard to believe that my confidence in Villanova pounding Sam Houston State would've been a LOT lower if I'd known their dominant player at the quarterback position wasn't going to play.

you are a broken record? What about the NOVA Def, special team, coaching, penalties??? I guess JR makes that all better.

[htownbearkat]

Capt obvious, really? did you really need that much dribble to say that NDST was the favorite? so where do you stand on your prediction of Sam Houston's' regression to SLC mediocrity at this point?

I think that prediction became less likely to be correct for the immediate future as soon as they got KC Keeler as head coach.


Really?

Re: College Football Opener
by JohnStOnge » Sat Aug 16, 2014 5:04 pm

The Bearkats have been the most (and arguably the only) successful SLC team since 2000 if judged by the playoffs. Maybe not a traditional power yet, and maybe a bit inconsistent. I would wager there are many fans of teams that would of taken that mediocrity.
5 playoff appearances
3 Simi final appearances
2 Finals
10 wins I think the cowboys are next with 3.
10-4 vs BSC and 7 in a row


Yes to some of that to some extent but, again, a lot of that is that one nucleus of players under that one head coach. That one nucleus/head coach combination accounts for 3 of those playoff appearances, 2 of those semifinal appearances, and both championship game appearances. Also most of the Big Sky record.

BTW McNeese State has had more playoff appearances since 2000. If you take "since 2000" literally it's 7 (2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2006, 2009, 2013). If it means 2000 is included it's 8. Also, McNeese went 11-3 against Sam Houston State during 2000 - 2013 and 10-3 during 2001 - 2013. There is no question as to which program has been superior over the years.

It's true that Sam Houston State has had more semifinal (3 to 1) and championship game appearances (2 to 1). But that, again, has a lot to do with that one nucleus of players and the head coach that's gone now.

Another thing is that I don't think there's any way Keeler is going to have things in place to the extent that he wants to for that first game. In fact, he pretty much said as much during the Southland Conference preview show I saw the other day. He wants to go to a very high offensive play frequency tempo and he said he's not going to be able to do it at the beginning of the season.

For some reason a couple of good years put Sam Houston State on the radar and started making people talk about that program as though it's a top FCS program. At this point it hasn't been established as such. Maybe if things continue now that Keeler's there it will be. But having one really good nucleus of players that brings a program to two national title games does not make a program a consistent power. They did very well in 2011 and 2012. But even in 2013 with the head coach that got them to the title game twice still there, after having lost a substantial portion of that one nucleus of players, they finished one game over 0.500 (4-3) in the Southland Conference.

I mean, Sam Houston State never even made the playoffs during two consecutive seasons before that one nucleus of players did its thing.

[Gil Dobie]

NDSU has a tough game ahead. First time playing a FBS school at home should be fun. Reference to Sams roster being full of FBS transfers. The DII loss is not alarming, as the Bearkats have gelled as the season progressed. This game will be closer than most people think. The Bison should be able to keep up with Sam and possibly pull out a win in the end, thanks to the home field advantage.

[JohnStOnge]

Another thing is that I don't think there's any way Keeler is going to have things in place to the extent that he wants to for that first game. In fact, he pretty much said as much during the Southland Conference preview show I saw the other day. He wants to go to a very high offensive play frequency tempo and he said he's not going to be able to do it at the beginning of the season.

Underline added for emphasis.

Aside from that, I did have questions about how Keeler would do in Texas in terms of recruiting. But I always said he's a good coach. Like during the discussion of the Colorado State Pueblo game.

When we were having the discussion you quoted from it was in the context of people saying Sam Houston State is a "traditional FCS power." It wasn't at that time. At that time it was indeed a school that had a couple of good runs with a single nucleus of players. I said at the time that you have to wait and see how they do when they have turnover to start talking about them as a "traditional FCS power."

They made inroads into that this year. But that doesn't change the fact that it's very reasonable to think they would't be in the semifinals right now if Villanova hadn't had to play without its Payton award winning quarterback.

[JohnStOnge]

ou are a broken record? What about the NOVA Def, special team, coaching, penalties??? I guess JR makes that all better.

It's not that their starting quarterback makes their defense and special teams better, it's that he makes it likely that they score more points and less likely that they'll get stopped on drives.

Villanova lined up to punt 6 times in that game. The first time they lined up to punt, which ended up in a blocked punt, is an illustration of the difference he might have made. On third down Villanova had a wide open receiver who would've made a first down but the backup quarterback missed him badly. Villanova lined up to punt and it got blocked.

If you watched the Illinois State game you saw an instance in which a defense didn't necessarily have to do all that great a job in order for a dominant offense to win the game. Illinois State did not punt during the game. They gave up 42 points, but they completely controlled the game.

And I suspect if they hadn't had the quarterback they have they wouldn't have done that. I think if you asked Eastern Washington fans who watched that game if they think they'd have had a LOT better shot to win if that Illinois State quarterback wasn't playing and they'd all say "yes."

Having a quarterback like that changes everything. It changes field position. It changes the opportunities the other team has on offense. Losing somebody like that totally changes the game. And I know you really know that's true.

[JohnStOnge]

Ok this is the year. Congratulations to the Missouri Valley Football Conference.