Big Sky Predictions by Score Comparisons

JohnStOnge · Post by **JohnStOnge** » Sat Nov 08, 2014 6:52 am

There was a little bit of discussion about comparing scores in the Montana at Eastern Washington thread so just for fun I just took the average margins of Big Sky teams playing each other this weekend against common opponents to see what comparing scores predicts. I didn't even look at won/loss records against common opponents per se. This is "pure points." Just comparing the average margin vs. common opponents of team A to the average margin vs. common opponents of team B. We'll see how it comes out.

Weber State vs. North Dakota, North Dakota by 2

Montana at Eastern Washington, Eastern Washington by 26

UC Davis at Northern Arizona, Northern Arizona by 12

Portland State at Montana State, Montana State by 25

Cal Poly at Idaho State, Idaho State by 2

Southern Utah at Sacramento State, Southern Utah by 4

Post by **kalm** » Sat Nov 08, 2014 6:54 am

JohnStOnge wrote:There was a little bit of discussion about comparing scores in the Montana at Eastern Washington thread so just for fun I just took the average margins of Big Sky teams playing each other this weekend against common opponents to see what comparing scores predicts. We'll see how it comes out.

Weber State vs. North Dakota, North Dakota by 2

Montana at Eastern Washington, Eastern Washington by 26

UC Davis at Northern Arizona, Northern Arizona by 12

Portland State at Montana State, Montana State by 25

Cal Poly at Idaho State, Idaho State by 2

Southern Utah at Sacramento State, Southern Utah by 4

Seems reasonable.

JohnStOnge · Post by **JohnStOnge** » Sat Nov 08, 2014 6:59 am

Yeah if those were lines I'd probably pick Montana with the 26 points and Cal Poly with the 2. If betting straight up on the Montana game I'd take Eastern Washington but 26 is a lot of points. To me Cal Poly vs. Idaho State is a toss up so I'd take the underdog with the 2 points and cross my fingers.

Good for Idaho State finally having a competitive year, by the way.

Post by **EWURanger** » Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:26 am

The Eastern/Montana game SHOULD be decided by 10 points or fewer, IMO.

JohnStOnge · Post by **JohnStOnge** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 9:29 am

Ok 4-2. I think I might continue to do this and see how it turns out by the end of the season. As of just before yesterday's games 5 of the 6 match ups involved 3 common opponents each and one involved 4 common opponents.

Post by **Grizalltheway** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 10:52 am

EWURanger wrote:The Eastern/Montana game SHOULD be decided by 10 points or fewer, IMO.

Nailed it!

Post by **EWURanger** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 7:36 pm

Grizalltheway wrote:
EWURanger wrote:The Eastern/Montana game SHOULD be decided by 10 points or fewer, IMO.
Nailed it!

Boom.

JohnStOnge · Post by **JohnStOnge** » Wed Nov 12, 2014 6:37 pm

Ok. Here we go for this week:

Northern Arizona at North Dakota, Northern Arizona by 22

Northern Colorado at Weber Sate, Northern Colorado by 10

Montana at Southern Utah, Montana by 2

Idaho State at Montana State, Idaho State by 9

Portland State at Sacramento State, Sacramento State by 1

UC Davis at Cal Poly, Cal Poly by 30

What kind of amazes me is that, because of the way the Big Sky is set up now I guess, there are still only three to four common opponents per matchup.

I can see this being a tough week for the "compare scores" approach. But we'll see.

Post by **AZGrizFan** » Wed Nov 12, 2014 6:42 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:Ok. Here we go for this week:

Northern Arizona at North Dakota, Northern Arizona by 22

Northern Colorado at Weber Sate, Northern Colorado by 10

Montana at Southern Utah, Montana by 2

Idaho State at Montana State, Idaho State by 9

Portland State at Sacramento State, Sacramento State by 1

UC Davis at Cal Poly, Cal Poly by 30

What kind of amazes me is that, because of the way the Big Sky is set up now I guess, there are still only three to four common opponents per matchup.

I can see this being a tough week for the "compare scores" approach. But we'll see.

NAU doesn't beat ANYONE by 22. I think they'll win, but more likely by about 10.
Montana will beat SUU by 20, not 2.

Post by **EWURanger** » Wed Nov 12, 2014 7:16 pm

Grizalltheway wrote:
EWURanger wrote:The Eastern/Montana game SHOULD be decided by 10 points or fewer, IMO.
Nailed it!

I always go with the narrower point spread in that game. All you need to do is go back and look at the scores the past several years.

2014: 36-26 EWU (10 points)
2013: 42-37 EWU (5 points)
2012: 32-26 EWU (6 points)
2011: 17-14 UM (3 points)
2010: 36-27 EWU (9 points)
2009: 41-34 UM (7 points)
2008: 19-3 UM (16 points)

2007: 24-23 UM (1 point)
2006: 33-17 UM (16 points)
2005: 34-20 EWU (14 points)
2004: 31-28 UM (3 points)

So in the last 10 years, that game has been decided by more than 10 points only three times. Anyone predicting more than a 14 point spread in this year's game was out of their minds.

Post by **Screamin_Eagle174** » Thu Nov 13, 2014 12:15 am

AZGrizFan wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:Ok. Here we go for this week:

Northern Arizona at North Dakota, Northern Arizona by 22

Northern Colorado at Weber Sate, Northern Colorado by 10

Montana at Southern Utah, Montana by 2

Idaho State at Montana State, Idaho State by 9

Portland State at Sacramento State, Sacramento State by 1

UC Davis at Cal Poly, Cal Poly by 30

What kind of amazes me is that, because of the way the Big Sky is set up now I guess, there are still only three to four common opponents per matchup.

I can see this being a tough week for the "compare scores" approach. But we'll see.
NAU doesn't beat ANYONE by 22. I think they'll win, but more likely by about 10.
Montana will beat SUU by 20, not 2.

NAU @ UND will be a true test of the late season swoon, because UND is BAD with that freshman QB/WR they have playing right now. If NAU struggles to put them away...

Mvemjsunpx · Post by **Mvemjsunpx** » Thu Nov 13, 2014 12:54 am

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:NAU @ UND will be a true test of the late season swoon, because UND is BAD with that freshman QB/WR they have playing right now. If NAU struggles to put them away...

I know. The NoDak from 3 weeks ago probably wins this, but not the current UND team.

Post by **Screamin_Eagle174** » Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:09 pm

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:
NAU doesn't beat ANYONE by 22. I think they'll win, but more likely by about 10.
Montana will beat SUU by 20, not 2.
NAU @ UND will be a true test of the late season swoon, because UND is BAD with that freshman QB/WR they have playing right now. If NAU struggles to put them away...

The swoon is alive and well! Thanks UND!

JALMOND · Post by **JALMOND** » Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:15 pm

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:
Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:
NAU @ UND will be a true test of the late season swoon, because UND is BAD with that freshman QB/WR they have playing right now. If NAU struggles to put them away...
The swoon is alive and well! Thanks UND!

Not necessarily a swoon. NAU has shown this year to have the ability to beat anyone in conference at home, yet can also lose to anyone in conference on the road. Probably more so than anyone else in the conference this year.

Post by **EWURanger** » Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:45 pm

I had a feeling NAU would drop 1 of their last 2, I just didn't think it would be to UND. Anyway, I think the BSC gets 3 into the playoffs this year.

EWU (Auto if we beat PSU)
Cal Poly
UM/MSU winner.

After today, NAU and ISU will both be out.

Post by **AZGrizFan** » Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:57 pm

EWURanger wrote:I had a feeling NAU would drop 1 of their last 2, I just didn't think it would be to UND. Anyway, I think the BSC gets 3 into the playoffs this year.

EWU (Auto if we beat PSU)
Cal Poly
UM/MSU winner.

After today, NAU and ISU will both be out.

Yep. That's what it comes down to.

Mvemjsunpx · Post by **Mvemjsunpx** » Sat Nov 15, 2014 10:48 pm

I wouldn't count ISU out yet. SHSU got in with 6 DI wins last year—that rule isn't as set in stone as it used to be.
NAU could get in with a win & some help, perhaps.
Bobcats could be in regardless of what happens next week.
Griz seem to be a lock with a win now.

mtjack · Post by **mtjack** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 11:30 am

So...does Cal Poly still get a playoff bid after their loss to UC Davis? I think EWU and the winner of the Brawl are the only guarantees this year. Perhaps the Big Sky conference only gets two into the playoffs? I'm going with EWU and MSU earning bids and it taking a minor miracle for a third bid to happen.

NAU's season has been maddeningly inconsistent. At home...they can beat anyone. On the road....they can lose to anyone.

No disrespect meant with this comment, but would anyone in their right mind have predicted wins over EWU and Cal Poly and losses to UND and UNC? The coaches and media preseason predictions had the Jacks way down in the conference standings. NAU actually played better this season than most predicted. Still frustrating, though.

In the end, 2 good victories < 3 bad losses. No playoffs this year. UND's defense made plays and their run offense was stout today. Kudos to them for not quitting on their season.

Grizzlies1982 · Post by **Grizzlies1982** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 6:36 pm

mtjack wrote:So...does Cal Poly still get a playoff bid after their loss to UC Davis? I think EWU and the winner of the Brawl are the only guarantees this year. Perhaps the Big Sky conference only gets two into the playoffs? I'm going with EWU and MSU earning bids and it taking a minor miracle for a third bid to happen.

NAU's season has been maddeningly inconsistent. At home...they can beat anyone. On the road....they can lose to anyone. No disrespect meant with this comment, but would anyone in their right mind have predicted wins over EWU and Cal Poly and losses to UND and UNC? The coaches and media preseason predictions had the Jacks way down in the conference standings. NAU actually played better this season than most predicted. Still frustrating, though.

In the end, 2 good victories < 3 bad losses. No playoffs this year. UND's defense made plays and their run offense was stout today. Kudos to them for not quitting on their season.

Many have opinions about how the playoff committee makes their selections but one more, or less, hard and fast rule has been five losses and you are out (unless conf AQ). I believe that will keep Cal Poly home, and the Grizzlies too if they don't beat the bobcats.
Northern Arizona is probably on the wrong side of the bubble due to their three very bad losses. Though if Lumberjacks win their final one, and the pool of bubble teams shrinks enough, NAU has an ever so slim shot at getting in. Though it looks extremely doubtful.

Post by **AZGrizFan** » Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:04 am

Mvemjsunpx wrote:I wouldn't count ISU out yet. SHSU got in with 6 DI wins last year—that rule isn't as set in stone as it used to be.
NAU could get in with a win & some help, perhaps.
Bobcats could be in regardless of what happens next week.
Griz seem to be a lock with a win now.

Well I'd put NAU in before ISU. At least NAU beat EWU and Cal Poly both.

Post by **Screamin_Eagle174** » Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:36 pm

JALMOND wrote:
Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:
The swoon is alive and well! Thanks UND!
Not necessarily a swoon. NAU has shown this year to have the ability to beat anyone in conference at home, yet can also lose to anyone in conference on the road. Probably more so than anyone else in the conference this year.

Swoon confirmed.

JALMOND · Post by **JALMOND** » Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:13 pm

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:
JALMOND wrote:
Not necessarily a swoon. NAU has shown this year to have the ability to beat anyone in conference at home, yet can also lose to anyone in conference on the road. Probably more so than anyone else in the conference this year.
Swoon confirmed.

Southern Utah finally ruined someone's season.

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