Lines for Round 2

[jcfrancis]

http://www.sportbet.com/lines/football_college" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NDSU is a 29.5 point favorite. Like that EIU is a 22.5 point favorite and that EWU is only a 6 point and Montana a 6.5 favorite. Even Vegas thinks EIU is better than 95% of this board.

[Gil Dobie]

http://www.sportbet.com/lines/football_college

NDSU is a 29.5 point favorite. Like that EIU is a 22.5 point favorite and that EWU is only a 6 point and Montana a 6.5 favorite. Even Vegas thinks EIU is better than 95% of this board.

EIU beat Tenn St by 18 on the road, so Vegas is giving them a little better than a 3 point addition at home.

[jcfrancis]

True. But all the talk about CC going up to Montana, everyone is had been calling for a blowout. Vegas thinks it will be closer.

And TSU, a top 5 FCS defense now, was not at full strength back in October.

[UNI88]

http://www.sportbet.com/lines/football_college

NDSU is a 29.5 point favorite. Like that EIU is a 22.5 point favorite and that EWU is only a 6 point and Montana a 6.5 favorite. Even Vegas thinks EIU is better than 95% of this board.

I don't think you can read that much into it. Is EIU being a 22.5 point favorite and EWU a 6 point favorite more of a reflection on EIU vs. EWU or Tenn St. vs. SDSU?

I agree that EIU is better than people are giving them credit for but they aren't going to face a real test until the 3rd round.

[slulionsfan]

http://www.sportbet.com/lines/football_college

NDSU is a 29.5 point favorite. Like that EIU is a 22.5 point favorite and that EWU is only a 6 point and Montana a 6.5 favorite. Even Vegas thinks EIU is better than 95% of this board.

Vegas doesn't "think" anything ... oddsmakers set lines based on the betting public's perception and how best to even out the money.

[JohnStOnge]

Vegas doesn't "think" anything ... oddsmakers set lines based on the betting public's perception and how best to even out the money.

Not the initial line. They set one then move it depending on how people are betting. And I'm pretty sure they use power rating systems to set it to start with. In fact on Baton Rouge sports talk radio Jimmy Ott often refers to this "Gold Sheet" power rating thing that people use to set initial lines. He thinks it's better than Sagarin and stuff like that but it's not. But I will say that I'd bet they do pay attention to how well their power rating system predicts. This year in FBS the intial line has been correct with respect to who would win 78% of the time while the Sagarin ratings have been right 79% of the time. Essentially equivalent. The final line, BTW, is also at 79%.

That's an interesting thing I've watched over the years. The line as it is adjusted in response to people betting does tend to be slightly better at predicting who will win than the opening line is.

[JohnStOnge]

http://www.sportbet.com/lines/football_college

NDSU is a 29.5 point favorite. Like that EIU is a 22.5 point favorite and that EWU is only a 6 point and Montana a 6.5 favorite. Even Vegas thinks EIU is better than 95% of this board.

As others have noted Tennessee State being the opponent is a factor in that.

However, I will say that I think the oddsmakers would make EIU playing at home the favorite against anybody in the field except possibly North Dakota State. That one would could go either way in terms of who they'd make the favorite. I say that because I'm pretty sure oddsmakers use power ratings to set initial lines and that's what you'd get from power ratings. Power ratings pretty much have EIU at #2 behind North Dakota State and the only question is whether or not home field advantage would be enough to put them over the top against the Bison. In Sagarin's system it would. In Sagarin's system EIU playing at home would be favored by 0.74 points. I guess oddsmakers would probably break that down to either 1 or 1/2.

[LDopaPDX]

http://www.sportbet.com/lines/football_college

NDSU is a 29.5 point favorite. Like that EIU is a 22.5 point favorite and that EWU is only a 6 point and Montana a 6.5 favorite. Even Vegas thinks EIU is better than 95% of this board.

I don't think you can read that much into it. Is EIU being a 22.5 point favorite and EWU a 6 point favorite more of a reflection on EIU vs. EWU or Tenn St. vs. SDSU?

I agree that EIU is better than people are giving them credit for but they aren't going to face a real test until the 3rd round.

Perhaps the question you pose is rhetorical, because the answer is obvious. Eastern (Washington, the real "Eastern") plays a legit opponent in South Dakota State. The other Eastern plays an outmatched opponent they've already doubled up once before.