Playoff Picture as of Right Now....

[EWURanger]

Major progress made!

If I can move a Hen fan 0.1% for Nova the sky is the limit with the committtee!

[JohnStOnge]

As I wrote in other threads if you are a bubble team you've got a possible route via Sam Houston State losing at Central Arkansas. If you watched that Sam Houston State at Southeastern Louisiana on ESPN3 you saw how the Sam Houston State offense, which had around 400 yards to that point, disappeared when the starting QB got knocked out. Central Arkansas has its own injury problems but it is still not a bad team. Sam Houston State has a HUGE task on its hands this week playing a freshman quarterback.

And if they lose they're 8-4 with three of the wins being over Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, and Texas Southern. I don't know what that SRS thing might say about that but it might not be good in spite of the quality win over Eastern Washington.

[SUUTbird]

Best shot for my T-Birds is that if we win, we are in. If we lose though we still will have a solid shot of getting in as a bubble team with an 8-4 record with an FBS win.

[clenz]

SHSU had wins over 3 non counters...they are fucked if they don't win big this week...or at least should be. For some dumb shit reason they are still highly ranked

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[JohnStOnge]

SHSU had wins over 3 non counters...they are **** if they don't win big this week...or at least should be. For some dumb **** reason they are still highly ranked

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I know this is somewhat of a stretch but if you look at power rankings Northern Iowa is generally a top 24 team. The Panthers are 9th in Sagarin and 14th in Massey, for example. They are rated 20th at that College Football Ranking Composite page right now with 42 systems being considered. I don't know what that SRS thing says but another thing is that the playoff committee informal rule is now going to be 6 rather than 7 D-I wins.

There is actually a little bit of hope left for Northern Iowa to make the playoffs if that SRS thing looks like most other power rating systems do.

And I honestly do believe that if Northern Iowa does make the playoffs they're dangerous. They can beat anybody. I have no doubt that North Dakota State's coaches would agree with that statement.

[vutomcat]

If northern Iowa is being considered nova will be as well. They are ranked ahead of northern Iowa in sagarin, Dunkel, Massey and the SRS. Should be interesting to see if the committee puts in quality teams like nova and northern Iowa or just looks at wins as in previous years.

[JohnStOnge]

If northern Iowa is being considered nova will be as well. They are ranked ahead of northern Iowa in sagarin, Dunkel, Massey and the SRS. Should be interesting to see if the committee puts in quality teams like nova and northern Iowa or just looks at wins as in previous years.

My understanding is that they will be looking at that SRS thing; which I understand stands for "Simple Ranking System." The problem is I have no idea as to how things look right now in that system. And the term "Simple" kind of makes me think it's not a very good system.

[vutomcat]

http://www.footballperspective.com/non- ... h-12-weeks" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[89Hen]

http://www.footballperspective.com/non- ... h-12-weeks

3 NW Missouri St 11-0

Yeah, they are a good D2 school. But they are not #3 overall. Next.

[dal4018]

I wouldn't put Tn State in either.

Tn St is playing much better on defense the offense is dragging its feet.Talked to a TSU fan on twitter he said German should be back for playoff run!!!

[dal4018]

1. You are out of your damn mind if you think the playoff committee would take -two- Pioneer teams.

2. Jackson State doesn't play in the playoffs.

3. Georgia Southern was out as soon as the season kicked off.

4. UNH is probably out at this point.

5. MEAC is a one-bid.

The SWAC gave up its AQ status a decade ago '01.Only thing they have to look forward to is the SWAC championship.Bethune Cookman is not giving shot for playoffs!!!

[89Hen]

The SWAC gave up its AQ status a decade ago '01.Only thing they have to look forward to is the SWAC championship.Bethune Cookman is not giving shot for playoffs!!!

I think it's been longer than that Dal. 1996-97ish.

[Cap'n Cat]

UNI's eating turkey at home again this year.

[JohnStOnge]

http://www.footballperspective.com/non- ... h-12-weeks

3 NW Missouri St 11-0

Yeah, they are a good D2 school? But they are not #3 overall. Next.

Same old same old Hen. How do you know that? There have been two games between D-II and I-AA national champions in the history of the playoff systems for the two schools. The D-II champ won by three one time and the I-AA champ won by three once. Then there's that thing I often cite about D-II Valdosta State, which lost its second D-II playoff game in 2003, not only beating I-AA semifinalist Florida Atlantic that year but crushing them by 45-17. Would it have been absurd that year to see a D-II that beat a I-AA that finished in the top 5 by 45-17 rated better than all but two I-AA teams in some rating system? I sure don't think so. I kinda think they unambiguously showed they could play with and beat a top 5 I-AA team.

And I've looked at historical results of games between D-II playoff teams and I-AA/FCS teams overall as well as playoff teams over the years. Actually I'm in the process of making a database on that. But anyway when you look at those historical results you see that it's not at all "unrealistic" to say that in a given year there could be a D-II team out there that's as good as anybody in FCS is.

[JohnStOnge]

UNI's eating turkey at home again this year.

Well, you may not want to get your hopes up only to be disappointed but they could finish 7-5 with a win over a Big 12 team and wins over two playoff teams that finish in the top 15 or so in the SRS the committee is using to make decisions along with a 1 point loss on the road to #1. AND would probably be in the top 10 of that SRS thing themselves.

Since I'm not a UNI fan who's in the position of getting my hopes up only to see them dashed I would not be at all surprised to see UNI make the field if they don't choke and somehow lose to Western Illinois. And then one of the top 8 seeds might get a very unpleasant surprise in the second round. Which is why I would not be disappointed to see them NOT make it.

I also would not be shocked to see them lose to Western Illinois with the way they've played Jekyll and Hyde this season. Surprised. But not shocked.

[89Hen]

Actually I'm in the process of making a database on that. But anyway when you look at those historical results you see that it's not at all "unrealistic" to say that in a given year there could be a D-II team out there that's as good as anybody in FCS is.

Let me know if you actually finish that database. I can help you with one of the teams. Last time West Chester beat UD was 1992. Since then they've made the D2 playoff 6 times without beating UD.

I recall a year when UC-Davis was ranked ridiculously high when they were D2. My memory aint what it used to be but I'm thinking it was 1999ish by Sagarin and they were 20 spots above any I-AA and somewhere near 30 in all of football. It was a joke... most of the computer rankings are. Not sure Davis even made the semis come playoff time. Any of you Aggie fans help?

[AZGrizFan]

SHSU had wins over 3 non counters...they are fucked if they don't win big this week...or at least should be. For some dumb shit reason they are still highly ranked

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What are you talking about? Every SHSU win is a "counter"....now, it could be argued whether or not they SHOULD count, but they do....Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, Lamar, Texas Southern, EWU, Northwestern St., SFA and Nichols...

[89Hen]

God I love the internets. Sagarin ratings are around for quite a few years. My memory wasn't too bad...

2000 Final Sagarin (AFTER PLAYOFFS)

44 UC Davis = 76.02 (12-1)
52 Georgia Southern = 73.18 (13-2)

At the end of the regular season UCD was even higher and GSU much lower.

[JohnStOnge]

[quote="89Hen"]God I love the internets. Sagarin ratings are around for quite a few years. My memory wasn't too bad...

2000 Final Sagarin (AFTER PLAYOFFS)

44 UC Davis = 76.02 (12-1)
52 Georgia Southern = 73.18 (13-2)

At the end of the regular season UCD was even higher and GSU much lower.[/quote

And why do you think that proves your point? UC Davis was Division II at the time and Georgia Southern was I-AA. There's nothing out there to contradict the ratings unless you just say that a team that was eliminated in the D-II semifinal can't be better than a team that won the I-AA national title. And I've already given an example of a team that was eliminated early on in the D-II tournament blew out a team that made it to the I-AA semifinals.

[89Hen]

And why do you think that proves your point? UC Davis was Division II at the time and Georgia Southern was I-AA. There's nothing out there to contradict the ratings unless you just say that a team that was eliminated in the D-II semifinal can't be better than a team that won the I-AA national title. And I've already given an example of a team that was eliminated early on in the D-II tournament blew out a team that made it to the I-AA semifinals.

There's nothing to substantiate these ratings. Davis sqeaked by a middle of the road Big Sky that year and that's when the Big Sky was Montana and the 7 dwarves. If you honestly believe that a D2 team could be the #30 team in the entire nation (I think that's where they were at the end of the regular season), there's no sense in even discussing this further.

[dbackjon]

SHSU had wins over 3 non counters...they are fucked if they don't win big this week...or at least should be. For some dumb shit reason they are still highly ranked

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What are you talking about? Every SHSU win is a "counter"....now, it could be argued whether or not they SHOULD count, but they do....Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, Lamar, Texas Southern, EWU, Northwestern St., SFA and Nichols...

No - Houston Baptist counts as an exhibition type (they are "unclassified" per NCAA, and UIW is D2 transitional, counts as D2

[89Hen]

Same old same old Hen. How do you know that? There have been two games between D-II and I-AA national champions in the history of the playoff systems for the two schools. The D-II champ won by three one time and the I-AA champ won by three once.

BTW, I'd like to see what you have so far. I'm having a hard time finding a game between the D2 and I-AA national champs. So far I've only found one D2 champ that played a I-AA in the year they won the championship:

1992 Jacksonville State went 12-1-1 on the way to the D2 title. The loss was to Georgia Southern who went 7-4 which also included wins over Valdosta, Savannah and Mississippi College (30-0) who was the team to tie Jacksonville State that year.

This is only one game and doesn't prove my point, but there simply isn't enough data to compare D2's to I-AA's. All we are left with is the sniff test. If Sagarin having a D2 UC-Davis as the #30 team in the nation doesn't smell funny to you, you may want to go see a doctor.

[DoubleNicks]

What are you talking about? Every SHSU win is a "counter"....now, it could be argued whether or not they SHOULD count, but they do....Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, Lamar, Texas Southern, EWU, Northwestern St., SFA and Nichols...

No - Houston Baptist counts as an exhibition type (they are "unclassified" per NCAA, and UIW is D2 transitional, counts as D2

Interesting...

In August 2012, UIW accepted an invitation to move up to Division I as a member of the Southland Conference.[8] UIW entered the NCAA Division I Southland Conference on July 1, 2013. The football team is a Division I FCS independent in 2013, beginning conference play in 2014 due to schedule commitments. UIW will be fully eligible for Division I championships starting in the 2017-18 season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University ... rnate_Word

On November 21, Houston Baptist accepted an invitation to join the Southland Conference joining July 1, 2013. The school plans to start a football program in 2013 and begin Southland play in 2014.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houston_Baptist_Huskies

If Wiki is accurate, wouldn't both count as D-I wins?

[89Hen]

Found another. 1989 Mississippi College goes 11-3 on the way to the D2 title, one of the losses to 5-6 McNeese.

[89Hen]

1987 - Troy State goes 12-1-1 winning the D2 title. Tie was to a 5-5-1 Nichols State (wins included St Cloud St, Alcorn and Southern).