CAA Power Rankings

[89Hen]

Whatever you guys do - please don't bring up the GPI. That thing (which poorly mimics the BCS) has been outperformed by the AGS Poll the last 4 years running.

4? Try 8... or EVERY year the AGS Poll has existed.

[GannonFan]

Whatever you guys do - please don't bring up the GPI. That thing (which poorly mimics the BCS) has been outperformed by the AGS Poll the last 4 years running.

4? Try 8... or EVERY year the AGS Poll has existed.

True dat. The GPI has never outperformed the AGS poll in terms of predicting the at larges in the NCAA tourney. All the GPI does is take the AGS poll and then make it less accurate with questionable and often out and out wrong computer models. Think of the GPI as the fuzzy, less accurate AGS poll.

[TribePride]

Yeah, Oklahoma Pan Handle State would have been a good opponent and really would have proved a lot. I'd rather be 6-5 playing real teams. Is that really a school?

Ask W&M how they felt in 2008. W&M only played 11 games, finished, 7-4, including a loss to an FBS team. Maine finished tied with W&M (they didn't play each other) in the CAA, but went 8-4 that year, with no game against an FBS team, and they played mighty Iona (weak team, but FCS nonetheless) as their extra game. Maine gets into the playoffs on the strength of that win over Iona while W&M rues not scheduling the maximum allowed number of games. nova would've beaten Iona this year and is probably ruing that they didn't schedule them as the 12th team.

We Tribe fans are not over it yet. The bile over losing the finale to Richmond in OT(with a questionable call or two thrown in) was still churning as we saw the pairings and were not included. Then, UR(our top rival) goes on and wins the national title. Perhaps it spurred us on to big heights the following season( a win over UVA, #3 ranking and painful one point loss to Nova in the national semis- Still see #4 diving for the first on the fake punt late in the game leading to the winning score). But it also was the clear indicator to schedule 12 games this year and next as admitted by our AD. If Nova and NH have not scheduled 12 yet for next year, those fans should call their AD's Monday to try and make it happen.

[bluehenbillk]

It makes no sense for Villanova to play a 12th game really unless its a FBS or guarantee game. They bleed money worse than any school in FCS, they even lose money playing at home.

[vutomcat]

Rumors getting hotter around the Main Line this week that Saturday will be Talley's last game & he's stepping down. What do you Nova guys hear?

News to me. The only time I have heard that mentioned was in the VU Sports forum by a huge B-ball fan that wants them to drop the program because of finances. He has been beating the drum for about 6 months on this. No one I know thinks this is accurate. The legendary coach would be leaving on his own terms of course so when and how would be up to him. He might be the type of guy who would do it this way since he doesn't seek the spotlight much but by this point in the season news would have leaked out. I don't give this much credence.

[vutomcat]

"The selection committee also will consider potential at-large teams with six wins against Division I competition, when in the past it basically considered seven to be the benchmark."

Nice to see the Hens fans bothered to read the article.

Nice to see you don't understand how the committee works.

89- Did you see the NCAA site on how the selection committee works? Twyxx was dead on with this post. It is no longer just a SN article that you can dismiss as bad information.

I'm hoping Montana and Maine win early so our fans (De and Nova) can pretty much know that the game will be for a bid or at least strong consideration for a bid. Need WM to lose as well if you are a Cat fan.

Once the Hen fans (93,89,Gannon, Andy,Cluck, billk) read through the NCAA site I invite your posts. This looks a lot different than the criteria used in prior years. The historical examples of teams with 7 wins being left off may not have any significance this year.

By the way, the guidelines indicate if you have as 5 or fewer you may be left off the potential list. (FIVE)

[bluehenbillk]

Rumors getting hotter around the Main Line this week that Saturday will be Talley's last game & he's stepping down. What do you Nova guys hear?

News to me. The only time I have heard that mentioned was in the VU Sports forum by a huge B-ball fan that wants them to drop the program because of finances. He has been beating the drum for about 6 months on this. No one I know thinks this is accurate. The legendary coach would be leaving on his own terms of course so when and how would be up to him. He might be the type of guy who would do it this way since he doesn't seek the spotlight much but by this point in the season news would have leaked out. I don't give this much credence.

Well he's right on the finances. VU reports an annula $5-6M loss on football, which was one of, if not the main reason they were looking the FBS route a few years ago.

The line is out, VU is listed currently as an 11.5 point favorite.

[89Hen]

Nice to see you don't understand how the committee works.

89- Did you see the NCAA site on how the selection committee works? Twyxx was dead on with this post. It is no longer just a SN article that you can dismiss as bad information.

I'm hoping Montana and Maine win early so our fans (De and Nova) can pretty much know that the game will be for a bid or at least strong consideration for a bid. Need WM to lose as well if you are a Cat fan.

Once the Hen fans (93,89,Gannon, Andy,Cluck, billk) read through the NCAA site I invite your posts. This looks a lot different than the criteria used in prior years. The historical examples of teams with 7 wins being left off may not have any significance this year.

By the way, the guidelines indicate if you have as 5 or fewer you may be left off the potential list. (FIVE)

It boils down to the fact that you don't realize there is and always has been a TON of ambiguity written into the NCAA guidelines to give the Committee as much leeway as they need to get in the teams they want in. I know you said you have been going to nova games for a long time, but I don't know if you are just new to this whole process. We've been talking about the Committee since the days of the old AOL and eScribe message boards.

[vutomcat]

Fair enough. You're right that I have not been this involved in looking at the selection process before. The SRS thing is new though if I read the site information correctly?

[89Hen]

Fair enough. You're right that I have not been this involved in looking at the selection process before. The SRS thing is new though if I read the site information correctly?

It is, but they also don't say they are going to have the SRS pick the teams for them. They also are probably shitting themselves for having chosen the SRS because it really does look like a steaming pile this year.

[GannonFan]

Fair enough. You're right that I have not been this involved in looking at the selection process before. The SRS thing is new though if I read the site information correctly?

It is, but they also don't say they are going to have the SRS pick the teams for them. They also are probably shitting themselves for having chosen the SRS because it really does look like a steaming pile this year.

89 is right, at the end of the day, it's a committee of people who will pick whomever they think should be in the playoffs - they always have had and will continue to have various metrics at their disposal that they may or may not use, and every year it's easy to predict who will and who won't make the playoffs. There are very few suprises in this process, hence why the AGS poll has been so good at predicting it over the past several years. This is never an objective exercise so trying to painstakingly look for ways for it to be so in the vain hopes that the team you favor will somehow make the playoffs is pointless.

[bluehenbillk]

The SRS isn't picking the teams, it's one of MANY things the committee uses. Since when do they pick March Madness solely based on RPI?

[vutomcat]

The SRS isn't picking the teams, it's one of MANY things the committee uses. Since when do they pick March Madness solely based on RPI?

I think you misread some posts. Go back and read again. No one said they just use SRS. I just made the point that using the SRS as a guide was new.

[vutomcat]

GANNON " it's easy to predict who will and who won't make the playoffs. There are very few suprises in this process /quote]

Please make sure to post your 24 Saturday night or early Sunday.

[andy7171]

Once the Hen fans (93,89,Gannon, Andy,Cluck, billk) read through the NCAA site I invite your posts. This looks a lot different than the criteria used in prior years. The historical examples of teams with 7 wins being left off may not have any significance this year.

MOTHER FUCKER!!!!!! I'm a Hen fan now!?!

[GannonFan]

Once the Hen fans (93,89,Gannon, Andy,Cluck, billk) read through the NCAA site I invite your posts. This looks a lot different than the criteria used in prior years. The historical examples of teams with 7 wins being left off may not have any significance this year.

MOTHER ****!!!!!! I'm a Hen fan now!?!

Well, you did sit next to BHBK at the Towson game.

[89Hen]

The SRS isn't picking the teams, it's one of MANY things the committee uses. Since when do they pick March Madness solely based on RPI?

I think you misread some posts. Go back and read again. No one said they just use SRS. I just made the point that using the SRS as a guide was new.

You've hung your entire hope of VU getting a big on the SRS.

[YoUDeeMan]

Hope the committee has learned something by those mistakes. Seems short sighted to me to just look at number of wins.

They are looking at wins...and 6 of them isn't enough.

Doesn't matter, 5 isn't enough either.

[Robsnotes4u]

I think you misread some posts. Go back and read again. No one said they just use SRS. I just made the point that using the SRS as a guide was new.

You've hung your entire hope of VU getting a big on the SRS.

My interpretation of reading the policies is they will use SRS as one of the many tools, and mostly when it comes down to comparing teams A, B, and C when records are close to equal, no head to head or common opponents. Then it might become a deciding factor.

Again people need to remember they discuss teams and games weekly so a lot of dissection has been done, deeper than most think.

Again just my interpretation.

I think the last thing the committee wants to do is penalize a team that lost a game when some instrumental players were missing; Fordham for example.



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[89Hen]

I think the last thing the committee wants to do is penalize a team that lost a game when some instrumental players were missing; Fordham for example.

So you agree that SRS or any other rating system is the last thing the committee would use, because there isn't a single one of them that takes things like that into account. This is why human perceptions will always beat out the computers unless they start playing 30 game schedules.

[Robsnotes4u]

I think the last thing the committee wants to do is penalize a team that lost a game when some instrumental players were missing; Fordham for example.

So you agree that SRS or any other rating system is the last thing the committee would use, because there isn't a single one of them that takes things like that into account. This is why human perceptions will always beat out the computers unless they start playing 30 game schedules.

Yes and no. Human perception can be a huge problem. It has been proven that you can take two individuals, eyewitnesses, to a crime and they can have totally different conclusions. People have different belief systems, pre-conceived notions, etc. this lead to different conscious conclusions.

Example. Cal Poly vs Montana. A Montana fan will tell you Good teams find away to win, and that is why Montana won. A Cal Poly fan will say we lost the game due to prevent defense, we screwed up. Which perception is right? A logarithm will more than likely give a better answer, as to who would win the game more if they played 10 times.

my perception, which is different than yours


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[89Hen]

So you agree that SRS or any other rating system is the last thing the committee would use, because there isn't a single one of them that takes things like that into account. This is why human perceptions will always beat out the computers unless they start playing 30 game schedules.

Yes and no. Human perception can be a huge problem. It has been proven that you can take two individuals, eyewitnesses, to a crime and they can have totally different conclusions. People have different belief systems, pre-conceived notions, etc. this lead to different conscious conclusions.

Example. Cal Poly vs Montana. A Montana fan will tell you Good teams find away to win, and that is why Montana won. A Cal Poly fan will say we lost the game due to prevent defense, we screwed up. Which perception is right? A logarithm will more than likely give a better answer, as to who would win the game more if they played 10 times.

my perception, which is different than yours

Youngstown State is #5 according to the Wilson computer ranking and #30 according to Catherwood computer ranking.

Tennessee State is #7 according to Pugh and Ashburn, but #31 to Doktor Entropy.

Northern Arizona is #9 by Dolphin and #32 in Sagarin.

I don't think you will find many humans in that much disagreement over those three teams (except Dal who thinks TSU is a top 5 team).

[Grizalltheway]

So you agree that SRS or any other rating system is the last thing the committee would use, because there isn't a single one of them that takes things like that into account. This is why human perceptions will always beat out the computers unless they start playing 30 game schedules.

Yes and no. Human perception can be a huge problem. It has been proven that you can take two individuals, eyewitnesses, to a crime and they can have totally different conclusions. People have different belief systems, pre-conceived notions, etc. this lead to different conscious conclusions.

Example. Cal Poly vs Montana. A Montana fan will tell you Good teams find away to win, and that is why Montana won. A Cal Poly fan will say we lost the game due to prevent defense, we screwed up. Which perception is right? A logarithm will more than likely give a better answer, as to who would win the game more if they played 10 times.

my perception, which is different than yours


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Might wanna see a doc about that hard-on you have for us, it's probably getting dangerous at this point.

I think the fact that we're 9-2 and heading for the playoffs while CP will probably be 6-6 is all you need to prove we're the better team.