HOW ARE THE PLAYOFF TEAMS CHOSEN?

BlackFalkin · Post by **BlackFalkin** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:30 pm

What conferences get AQ's and extra at large bids? If its down to a science then we on this site should be able to accurately predict the teams.

dal4018 · Post by **dal4018** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:04 am

BlackFalkin wrote:What conferences get AQ's and extra at large bids? If its down to a science then we on this site should be able to accurately predict the teams.

The MEAC will get a AQ.

89Hen · Post by **89Hen** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:12 am

BlackFalkin wrote:What conferences get AQ's and extra at large bids? If its down to a science then we on this site should be able to accurately predict the teams.

It's not too difficult. Most knowledgable posters will get all or all but one correct. That said, we are in uncharted territory with the number of teams. When it was 16, it was very easy, now there will be a couple of head scratchers IMO.

Post by **Ibanez** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:17 am

Here's an interesting round up. Note that the article is from September.

Big Sky: The wild card among Big Sky teams this year has long appeared to be Portland State, which finished 7-4 in coach Nigel Burton's first season in 2011 but only 3-8 last season. After dismantling Eastern Oregon to open their season, the Vikings got people's attention with a hard-fought, 37-30 loss at Cal. Their offense, fueled by quarterback Kieran McDonagh and running back D.J. Adams, leads the FCS with 612.5 yards per game. It doesn't hurt the conference that Eastern Washington (611) and Idaho State (580) rank second and third, respectively. ... The Montana-North Dakota and Northern Arizona-UC Davis matchups on Saturday do not count toward the Big Sky standings.

Big South: Presbyterian will try to keep Southern Conference member Furman in last place in the Big South. Furman has opened its season with losses to Gardner-Webb and Coastal Carolina, although Saturday's home date with Presbyterian is the easiest of the three games. ... Big South teams are 5-1 against non-conference FCS competition.

CAA Football: In a conference of terrific running backs, it's newcomer Omar Osbourne of Albany who leads the way with 331 rushing yards through two weeks of action. The Great Danes play their first CAA game by hosting Rhode Island on Saturday. ... Winnable but tricky games: New Hampshire hosting Colgate and quarterback Gavin McCarney, and Richmond, looking strong, at Gardner-Webb. And this for a Richmond program that has not suffered a non-conference FCS loss in the regular season since 2005 (17-0 since).

Ivy: The season is inching closer for Ivy teams, who will kick off on Sept. 21 and play the final 10 weekends of the season.

Independents: Old Dominion has gotten a taste of its FBS future with season- opening losses to East Carolina and Maryland - the Monarches' first-ever FBS opponents, but also the first two of five this season. Still, the Monarchs' schedule lessens in the coming weeks, beginning Saturday against Howard, and 2012 Walter Payton Award winner Taylor Heinicke figures to put up big numbers.

MEAC: Six MEAC teams are still seeking their first win. Perhaps the one that's most likely to gain it Saturday is South Carolina State, which hosts Alabama A&M in a strong matchup of historically black schools. Quarterback Richard Cue has held his own in season-opening losses to Coastal Carolina and Clemson.

Missouri Valley: With running backs Zach Zenner of South Dakota State, David Johnson of Northern Iowa and Adaris Bellamy (ankle injury) of Youngstown State, the Missouri Valley could produce the FCS rushing champion for a fifth time in six seasons. Zenner led the nation last season. ... Missouri State heads to Murray State. The last time that happened in 2011, the Bears came out on the wrong end of a 72-59 score.

Northeast: With road wins over Marist and Lafayette, Sacred Heart has been the surprise of the conference, starting 2-0 for the first time since 2008. Redshirt freshman quarterback R.J. Noel has two NEC Rookie of the Week honors to start his playing career. Up next are games against Division II Lincoln (Pa.) and Chowan, so the winning should continue for second-year coach Mark Nofri, whose team finished just 2-9 last season. ... Wagner will play in the NEC's only FCS-FBS matchup when it visits Syracuse on Saturday.

Ohio Valley: The OVC is home to some of the best non-conference matchups of the week. Eastern Kentucky will go for its second win against No. 21 Coastal Carolina. No. 9 Eastern Illinois will seek some in-state bragging rights when it hosts No. 18 Illinois State in the 102nd playing of the Mid-American Classic. UT Martin, which owns a big win over Chattanooga, will try to take down another nationally ranked team when it hosts No. 8 Central Arkansas.

Patriot: Fordham has not started a season with three straight wins since its final year in Division III in 1989, and to do so on Saturday the Rams will have to beat FBS member Temple. ... Since falling in overtime to New Hampshire early in the 2011 season, Lehigh has won nine straight games by seven points or less, including last Saturday's 51-44 overtime win over Central Connecticut State.

Pioneer: Jacksonville coach Kerwin Bell has done well to raise the Dolphins' non-conference schedule in recent years. His 0-2 team played at Delaware and Jacksonville State, which is a terrific lead-in to its league opener against Morehead State on Saturday. The Dolphins have matched up with the three FBS- bound programs - Appalachian State, Georgia Southern and Old Dominion - since the 2010 season. ... Drake junior linebacker John Hugunin is tied for the FCS high with 30 tackles in two games, including 23 solos.

Southern: The week's biggest game is No. 10 Georgia Southern at No. 16 Wofford. With a win, the host Terriers, who have won six straight home games, would take control of the early conference race because their schedule is quite back-loaded. But GSU is 8-2 all-time in Spartanburg, S.C.

Southland: Nicholls is playing with house money as it takes on a third straight FBS team to open the season, Louisiana-Lafayette. The Colonels' win at Western Michigan last Saturday snapped three losing streaks: nine games overall, 12 games versus FBS teams and 21 games versus NCAA opponents.

SWAC: In the SWAC's preseason poll, Alabama State was favored in the East Division and defending conference champion Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the West Division, but the loser of their matchup Saturday will be 0-3. ... Expect offensive fireworks when Southern hosts Prairie View A&M in a key West Division game. Prairie View is getting strong play from its two-QB system of Jerry Lovelocke and De'Auntre Smiley and, more importantly, improved defensive play, while Southern quarterback Dray Joseph, who fired 25 touchdowns last season, figures to take off in conference games.

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2013/09/1 ... elections/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

BlackFalkin · Post by **BlackFalkin** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:26 pm

89Hen wrote:
BlackFalkin wrote:What conferences get AQ's and extra at large bids? If its down to a science then we on this site should be able to accurately predict the teams.
It's not too difficult. Most knowledgable posters will get all or all but one correct. That said, we are in uncharted territory with the number of teams. When it was 16, it was very easy, now there will be a couple of head scratchers IMO.

So do "they" look at the tsn rankings when determining seeds? Bc in 2010 EWU got screwed out of the #1 seed when they were #1 ranked.. If EWU and ndsu win out maybe EWU gets the #1 seed??

Post by **93henfan** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:54 pm

From Ibanez's link:

While the expansion of the FCS playoffs by four teams this season has been met with open arms nationally, the less-publicized addition of a ratings system for the NCAA selection committee to use in picking its field has been embraced with a sense of enthusiasm, if not relief, across the FCS.

The Simple Rating System, or SRS, is similar to the RPI system used in college basketball and will quantify the strength of a team's schedule. Its use will help lead to a more concrete selection of at-large qualifiers, which will rise by three to 13 in the new 24-team field. The additional bid for the Pioneer Football League champion brings the number of conference champions to 11...

The SRS will factor in all of a team's games against FCS, FBS and Division II competition. In past years, a game against a Division II opponent did not count toward a team's resume.

But the new system will incorporate them into the equation and rightfully differentiate the levels of wins, including both home and away, which will provide a true strength of schedule tool. It will be recalculated on a weekly basis through the final regular-season games on Nov. 23 and the announcement of the playoff field the next morning.

The selection committee also will consider potential at-large teams with six wins against Division I competition, when in the past it basically considered seven to be the benchmark.

In the interest of disclosure, where can we find the formula for this SRS or a current ranking of teams based on it? It would be nice to have a look at the man behind the curtain.

BlackFalkin · Post by **BlackFalkin** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:15 pm

93henfan wrote:From Ibanez's link:

While the expansion of the FCS playoffs by four teams this season has been met with open arms nationally, the less-publicized addition of a ratings system for the NCAA selection committee to use in picking its field has been embraced with a sense of enthusiasm, if not relief, across the FCS.

The Simple Rating System, or SRS, is similar to the RPI system used in college basketball and will quantify the strength of a team's schedule. Its use will help lead to a more concrete selection of at-large qualifiers, which will rise by three to 13 in the new 24-team field. The additional bid for the Pioneer Football League champion brings the number of conference champions to 11...

The SRS will factor in all of a team's games against FCS, FBS and Division II competition. In past years, a game against a Division II opponent did not count toward a team's resume.

But the new system will incorporate them into the equation and rightfully differentiate the levels of wins, including both home and away, which will provide a true strength of schedule tool. It will be recalculated on a weekly basis through the final regular-season games on Nov. 23 and the announcement of the playoff field the next morning.

The selection committee also will consider potential at-large teams with six wins against Division I competition, when in the past it basically considered seven to be the benchmark.
In the interest of disclosure, where can we find the formula for this SRS or a current ranking of teams based on it? It would be nice to have a look at the man behind the curtain.

Im thinking they have some basic tie breaker formula like: a home win vs a 7-5 team is worth more than a road win vs a 6-6 team. But a road win vs a 6-6 team is better than a home win vs a 6-6 team.. Maybe the SRS formula is posted somewhere or SOMEBODY knows it.

Post by **Grizo406** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:24 pm

BlackFalkin wrote:
89Hen wrote:
It's not too difficult. Most knowledgable posters will get all or all but one correct. That said, we are in uncharted territory with the number of teams. When it was 16, it was very easy, now there will be a couple of head scratchers IMO.
So do "they" look at the tsn rankings when determining seeds? Bc in 2010 EWU got screwed out of the #1 seed when they were #1 ranked.. If EWU and ndsu win out maybe EWU gets the #1 seed??

That would be awesome if that happened!

FCS wise, the #1 thing on my "What Do I Most Want to See" list is: Griz win a National Championship. #2 on that list is that EWU beat SHSU...at least once!

Not sure which one would happen first!??!

GrizFanStuckInUtah · Post by **GrizFanStuckInUtah** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:28 pm

Grizo406 wrote:
BlackFalkin wrote:
So do "they" look at the tsn rankings when determining seeds? Bc in 2010 EWU got screwed out of the #1 seed when they were #1 ranked.. If EWU and ndsu win out maybe EWU gets the #1 seed??
That would be awesome if that happened!

FCS wise, the #1 thing on my "What Do I Most Want to See" list is: Griz win a National Championship. #2 on that list is that EWU beat SHSU...at least once!

Not sure which one would happen first!??!

DoubleNicks · Post by **DoubleNicks** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:05 pm

No, the committee doesn't care about the TSN or coaches' poll rankings, supposedly. IMO, I think they do play a part, though, when you have teams with similar resumes and at least one of the teams doesn't have as much coverage about them.

One of the posters at egriz.com has been posting a weekly spreadsheet of GPI and SRS. I'm not sure if it is something he calculated or referenced from an official source. But it's something to look at nonetheless.

http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/viewtopi ... =1&t=64524

DoubleNicks · Post by **DoubleNicks** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:10 pm

For those that don't want to open the spreadsheet the top 10 for SRS are:

1 NDSU
2 EIU
3 SELA
4 EWU
5 Nova
6 Towson
7 McNeese St
8 UNI
9 Coastal Carolina
10 Maine

BlackFalkin · Post by **BlackFalkin** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:18 pm

DoubleNicks wrote:For those that don't want to open the spreadsheet the top 10 for SRS are:

1 NDSU
2 EIU
3 SELA
4 EWU
5 Nova
6 Towson
7 McNeese St
8 UNI
9 Coastal Carolina
10 Maine

So in other words EWU isnt top two after 7 road games, defeating 6-2 BCS opponent #25 Oregon State, top 10 Montana & top 5 Montana State? Not to mention losing to FBS toledo on the road & FCS Runner up SHSU on the road. Who has EIU & Sela beat? Or NDSU for that matter?? Nobody questions them huh? Undisputed #1 team? I dont buy that... Ill be highly disappointed if the SRS is this bullshxt.

DoubleNicks · Post by **DoubleNicks** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:19 pm

UNI and Nova being in the top 10 must be a joke, though. Both don't even have winning records.

DoubleNicks · Post by **DoubleNicks** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:20 pm

BlackFalkin wrote:So in other words EWU isnt top two after 7 road games, defeating 6-2 BCS opponent #25 Oregon State, top 10 Montana & top 5 Montana State? How has EIU & Sela beat? Ill be highly dissapointed if the SRS is this bullshxt.

Yeah, I don't agree with the ratings, either. Hopefully, what I linked isn't "official".

Post by **EWURanger** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:28 pm

I'm ok with it. If we end up winning out and can't get the #2 seed, then I'd rather get the #4 seed and be on EIU's side of the bracket anyway.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

BlackFalkin · Post by **BlackFalkin** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:40 pm

EWURanger wrote:I'm ok with it. If we end up winning out and can't get the #2 seed, then I'd rather get the #4 seed and be on EIU's side of the bracket anyway.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So #1, #3 & #5 are on the same side of the bracket and #2 & #4 are on the other side? if thats the case then I agree with you.

Post by **EWURanger** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:45 pm

BlackFalkin wrote:
EWURanger wrote:I'm ok with it. If we end up winning out and can't get the #2 seed, then I'd rather get the #4 seed and be on EIU's side of the bracket anyway.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So #1, #3 & #5 are on the same side of the bracket and #2 & #4 are on the other side? if thats the case then I agree with you.

I screwed this up. #1 and #4 are on one side, and #2 and #3 on the other.

Post by **dbackjon** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:50 pm

BlackFalkin wrote:
DoubleNicks wrote:For those that don't want to open the spreadsheet the top 10 for SRS are:

1 NDSU
2 EIU
3 SELA
4 EWU
5 Nova
6 Towson
7 McNeese St
8 UNI
9 Coastal Carolina
10 Maine
So in other words EWU isnt top two after 7 road games, defeating 6-2 BCS opponent #25 Oregon State, top 10 Montana & top 5 Montana State? Not to mention losing to FBS toledo on the road & FCS Runner up SHSU on the road. Who has EIU & Sela beat? Or NDSU for that matter?? Nobody questions them huh? Undisputed #1 team? I dont buy that... Ill be highly disappointed if the SRS is this bullshxt.

EIU - beat FBS San Diego State, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, lost to #14 FBS by 4, dominating OVC.
NDSU - beat FBS Kansas State

Post by **93henfan** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:53 pm

dbackjon wrote:
BlackFalkin wrote:
So in other words EWU isnt top two after 7 road games, defeating 6-2 BCS opponent #25 Oregon State, top 10 Montana & top 5 Montana State? Not to mention losing to FBS toledo on the road & FCS Runner up SHSU on the road. Who has EIU & Sela beat? Or NDSU for that matter?? Nobody questions them huh? Undisputed #1 team? I dont buy that... Ill be highly disappointed if the SRS is this bullshxt.

EIU - beat FBS San Diego State, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, lost to #14 FBS by 4, dominating OVC.
NDSU - beat FBS Kansas State

If that spreadsheet is even close to accurate on the SRS formula, NAU, CSU, and UD fans might be disappointed on Selection Sunday.

Post by **dbackjon** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 5:00 pm

93henfan wrote:
dbackjon wrote:

EIU - beat FBS San Diego State, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, lost to #14 FBS by 4, dominating OVC.
NDSU - beat FBS Kansas State
If that spreadsheet is even close to accurate on the SRS formula, NAU, CSU, and UD fans might be disappointed on Selection Sunday.

A formula that has 5-6 Missouri State 18 spots ahead of NAU and 35 spots ahead of Delaware is suspect.

JohnStOnge · Post by **JohnStOnge** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 5:45 pm

BlackFalkin wrote:What conferences get AQ's and extra at large bids? If its down to a science then we on this site should be able to accurately predict the teams.

It's not down to a science. Being down to a science would mean they would get rid of the selection committee and adopt some objective power rating system to pick the at large teams. And they'd chose the power rating system based on either how well it predicts future games or how well it "explains" past outcomes.

Having a playoff selection committee means subjective opinion is involved.

BlackFalkin · Post by **BlackFalkin** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 5:49 pm

dbackjon wrote:
BlackFalkin wrote:
So in other words EWU isnt top two after 7 road games, defeating 6-2 BCS opponent #25 Oregon State, top 10 Montana & top 5 Montana State? Not to mention losing to FBS toledo on the road & FCS Runner up SHSU on the road. Who has EIU & Sela beat? Or NDSU for that matter?? Nobody questions them huh? Undisputed #1 team? I dont buy that... Ill be highly disappointed if the SRS is this bullshxt.

EIU - beat FBS San Diego State, Southern Illinois, Illinois State, lost to #14 FBS by 4, dominating OVC.
NDSU - beat FBS Kansas State

EIU beat San Diego State. okay that cool
EWU beat BCS #25 Oregon State.

EIU is "dominating" a WEAK conference
EWU is dominating a DOMINANT conference

NDSU beat Kansas State. great
EWU beat #25 Oregon state.

EWU has a MUCH TOUGHER Conference

EWU has a MUCH TOUGHER Non conference schedule

NDSU's non conf schedule AND THEY ONLY HAVE 11GAMES!
K State
Ferris State
Delaware State (Meac)

EWU's non conf schedule
Oregon State > Kansas State
Western Oregon >/= Ferris State
Sam Houston State > Delaware State
Toledo > Delaware State

EWU also beat TWO top 10 FCS teams... lets be realistic. EWU is battle tested.

JohnStOnge · Post by **JohnStOnge** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:00 pm

So in other words EWU isnt top two after 7 road games, defeating 6-2 BCS opponent #25 Oregon State, top 10 Montana & top 5 Montana State? Not to mention losing to FBS toledo on the road & FCS Runner up SHSU on the road. Who has EIU & Sela beat? Or NDSU for that matter?? Nobody questions them huh? Undisputed #1 team? I dont buy that... Ill be highly disappointed if the SRS is this bullshxt.

You've got to be kidding. One problem is that, at least at this point if you go by what's happened this season, the Big Sky is down. And it's not just the SRS thing. If you look at the composite at http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; only one of the 50 systems they have up has Eastern Washington in the top 2. It's not like the SRS thing is an outlier in that regard.

Look, beating Oregon State was very impressive. But they also got thrown around by Sam Houston State.

Southeastern Louisiana beat McNeese State 41-7. Now, I know McNeese got clubbed by Northern Iowa. But the Cowboys also beat....wait for it...Sam Houston State while holding the Bearkats to 84 rushing yards.

It's not at all outrageous for Eastern Washington to be outside of the top 2.

If Southeastern Louisiana beats Sam Houston State this weekend you will have no argument. If they lose then Eastern Washington will be ranked ahead of the Lions. It'll work out.

For the record I hope Sam Houston State wins.

Post by **EWURanger** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:19 pm

JohnStOnge wrote:
So in other words EWU isnt top two after 7 road games, defeating 6-2 BCS opponent #25 Oregon State, top 10 Montana & top 5 Montana State? Not to mention losing to FBS toledo on the road & FCS Runner up SHSU on the road. Who has EIU & Sela beat? Or NDSU for that matter?? Nobody questions them huh? Undisputed #1 team? I dont buy that... Ill be highly disappointed if the SRS is this bullshxt.
You've got to be kidding. One problem is that, at least at this point if you go by what's happened this season, the Big Sky is down. And it's not just the SRS thing. If you look at the composite at http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; only one of the 50 systems they have up has Eastern Washington in the top 2. It's not like the SRS thing is an outlier in that regard.

Look, beating Oregon State was very impressive. But they also got thrown around by Sam Houston State.

Southeastern Louisiana beat McNeese State 41-7. Now, I know McNeese got clubbed by Northern Iowa. But the Cowboys also beat....wait for it...Sam Houston State while holding the Bearkats to 84 rushing yards.

It's not at all outrageous for Eastern Washington to be outside of the top 2.

If Southeastern Louisiana beats Sam Houston State this weekend you will have no argument. If they lose then Eastern Washington will be ranked ahead of the Lions. It'll work out.

For the record I hope Sam Houston State wins.

I was ok with your post until you started getting into the transitive theory stuff. Football is about match-ups.

And for right now, EWU is probably right where they should be. Win the next two games, and everything will buff out in the playoffs.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

JohnStOnge · Post by **JohnStOnge** » Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:48 pm

I was ok with your post until you started getting into the transitive theory stuff. Football is about match-ups.

All I was saying that it's not unreasonable to have Eastern Washington rated outside of the top twol The question was who has Southeastern Louisiana beat. Well, they beat McNeese State 41-7. And if you ask who McNeese State is someone can say they're a team that beat a team that threw Eastern Washington around.

When you come right down to it there is no perfect system but all you can do is look at who people played and beat. When you come right down to it you have no choice but to compare scores and look at how everybody did against everybody else. I'm not saying a person couldn't make an argument for Eastern Washington being in the top two. But it's certainly not outrageous for them to be out of the top 2. There are legitimate arguments for, say, having Southeastern Louisiana rated above them.

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