Domino Effect

[SDHornet]

I know this is a FCS site, but I thought of something that ultimately might affect the FCS conferences so hear me out. Now considering only football (mainly because I don’t know enough to consider how basketball plays into all of this), I have been wondering how things will shake up when the Big East makes a move to 12 teams to obtain a very lucrative championship game for their conference. We saw a similar domino affect when the ACC raided the Big East to reach a 12 school membership. The Big East then raided Conf-USA, which raided the WAC, which raided the Sun Belt.

So here is how I am speculating it will play out (please note that the schools I am speculating will get selected are based primarily on program strength, geographic location, and occasionally, complete randomness. There is little or no evidence that these schools are actually considering the conference moves I am implicating):

The Big East will raid Conf-USA, taking Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, and Marshall to make a total of 12 teams that have football. (I’m not sure which, if any, FCS schools back east are being considered by the Big East for football so that was not taken into account.)

Conf-USA will then take on the following teams: Louisiana Tech (from WAC), Troy (from Sun Belt), TCU (from Mountain West) and for lack of any decent teams remaining, we’ll say they also take another school from the Sun Belt for its location with respect to the remaining Conf-USA teams.

The Mountain West, seeking to become a BCS conference and gain enough schools to have a championship game, will raid the WAC and take Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and another WAC school (they are all equally bad after BSU and FSU and all the schools fit geographically into the Mountain West aside from Hawaii).

This leaved the Sun Belt with 6 teams. They can take on Western Kentucky so they will have at least 7 schools. Not sure if there is any FCS schools considering moving up to FBS in the southeast that would fit geographically into the Sun Belt but that is a direction they can take to acquire more schools.

Finally we are left with a 4 school WAC Conference who will have these choices:
-Completely fold and let the remaining schools either go to the Sun Belt or Independent. I figure the WAC and Sun Belt are about the same crappiness so it doesn’t make sense for the WAC to try and raid the Sun Belt or vice versa. I highly doubt the conference chair people will be willing to give up their cush six figure jobs so I think they would hash out a way to stay alive.
-Raid the Big Sky Conference and take the teams most likely to have a fighting chance in the FBS. Let’s say the WAC takes at least 3/4 schools from the Big Sky to get to 7/8 schools.

Which schools would/could move up into the WAC or any other FBS conference? Is this scenario too unrealistic to occur and am I completely off base? How would the Big Sky or any other conference that has schools move to FBS respond? Feel free to add any additional comments as well.

[dbackjon]

Interesting scenario, and it does all start with the Big East.

I don't see TCU going BACK to C-USA, since they left there for better competition in the MWC.

WKU is a full member of the SunBelt this year. South Alabama is waiting in the wings, starting a program that will be FBS by 2013 or so.

[SDHornet]

I don't see TCU going BACK to C-USA, since they left there for better competition in the MWC.

Well I forget what I was watching or reading, but it was brought up that TCU has doesn't fit geographically into the Mountain West and there was speculation that they originally wanted into Conf-USA. The nearest MW school is New Mexico which is a whopping 625 miles away. It makes football sense for TCU to be in the MW but does it make financial sense to ship all the other MW sponsored sports around? Plus North Texas and TCU are the only FBS Texas schools not in the Big 12 or Conf-USA so I would think it would make more sense (both financial and loactionwise) to make a switch.

[dbackjon]

I don't see TCU going BACK to C-USA, since they left there for better competition in the MWC.

Well I forget what I was watching or reading, but it was brought up that TCU has doesn't fit geographically into the Mountain West and there was speculation that they originally wanted into Conf-USA. The nearest MW school is New Mexico which is a whopping 625 miles away. It makes football sense for TCU to be in the MW but does it make financial sense to ship all the other MW sponsored sports around? Plus North Texas and TCU are the only FBS Texas schools not in the Big 12 or Conf-USA so I would think it would make more sense (both financial and loactionwise) to make a switch.

TCU wants nothing to do with UNT. A more likely scenario, IMHO, would be for the MWC to add another Texas team

[dgreco]

TCU wouldn't leave the MWC. I also think the SB is actually rated infront of the WAC and CUSA now. If you look at conference RPI's.

I think you would see the Big East grab 4 teams to get to 12. And then the WAC, CUSA and SB readjust themselves to make more sense.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

I see the BEast looking at Memphis and UCF... ECU and Marshall are a different matter.

Memphis and UCF would give the Big East two larger TV markets and a great in-state rivalry with UCF-USF. Memphis-Louisville would be back... a great rivalry.

ECU would be good for getting the Carolinas in the Big East... but here's the problem I can see... nobody in NC cares about ECU and they aren't in a tv market really... they are kinda screwed.

More likely would be waiting to bring Charlotte up if they get football going.

They also will be blocked on Marshall if WVU has anything to say about it. Westie will not abide letting little brother move up to "even" with them in terms of a conference (if my understanding of WV is correct)

You could instead see Buffalo (another big market with a big stadium) move in from the MAC or Temple... but their fb program seems destined for FCS at some point.

They may also try to get one of their BB schools to add FB... think Seton Hall at the Meadowlands or get ND to come over (yeah right)

[slycat]

That would allow for Texas St and UTSA to move to the Sun Belt.

Of course CUSA could also split to Eastern and Western halves.

There is good talk of all this at the College Sports Info website.