New SH Bracketology

[SuperHornet]

After this week's games and a look at resumes, I settled on this. Let me state right from the get-go that there is a bit of homerism here as I recognize that ECB will likely keep Sac out at 7-4. But after looking at other teams, I eliminated some for having no big wins or for playing D-II, allowing me to enter Sac (even if a bit dubiously) as the only 7-4 team in the field in the last spot (just barely, BTW). I tried to regionalize it, but didn't get as good a regionalized deal as the last one. There are a LOT of teams having to cross the Mississippi in this scenario. You'll note that a LOT of teams from my previous bracket have dropped out. I emphasized my poll last time, and my evaluation of resumes this time, and some that I had up pretty high in my poll washed out. Additionally, I had to make a few guesses as to the auto-bids as a LOT of conferences look to have ties at the top, and I don't know how they plan to break the ties. Theoretically, the Big South can have a 3-way tie between Stony Brook, Coastal, and Liberty, with all three 1-1 H2H, but I'm presuming here for sake of argument that Stony Brook wins the auto-bid regardless, and that CCU and Liberty are both toast.

First Round

Sac St (7-4) @ TN-Martin (8-3)
Wagner (8-3) @ Appalachian St (8-3)
TN St (9-2) @ Lehigh (11-0)
Bethune-Cookman (9-2) @ Cal Poly (9-2)

Second Round

Sac/Martin Winner @ 1 NDSU (10-1)
SHSU (8-3) @ NAU (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2) @ 5 EWU (9-2)
Wag/App Winner @ 4 MSU

TN St/Lehigh Winner @ 3 UNH (9-2)
JMU (8-3) @ GA Southern (8-3)
Wofford (8-3) @ UCA (9-2)
BCC/CP Winner @ 2 ODU (10-1)

I still have an NDSU-ODU final with NDSU winning.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I know I'm going to regret asking because your answer will probably involve jesus and what you ate today, but how would a 9-2 UNH and a 9-1 MSU beat out 9-2 EWU for higher seeds? EWU has played much tougher schedule than both, no blowout losses, FBS win, and head to head over MSU.

[Bearkats94]

How many times has schools from the same conf. met in the national championship game? From looking at http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf Sam and UCA could IF they went all the way.

[CatBlitz22]

.

[uofmman1122]

I know I'm going to regret asking because your answer will probably involve jesus and what you ate today, but how would a 9-2 UNH and a 9-1 MSU beat out 9-2 EWU for higher seeds? EWU has played much tougher schedule than both, no blowout losses, FBS win, and head to head over MSU.

It's all about timing and momentum. Unfortunately if EWU and MSU win out, MSU will be ranked higher and more than likely rewarded a higher seed.

It's the same reason Montana got a seed over Weber State in 2008. (Thanks again, Eagles )

[SuperHornet]

1122 pretty much said it, SE. Of course, I was getting microscopic on the schedules only with the 8-3/7-4 people. MOST of the 9-2 folk were pretty much in [though I did drop 9-2 Albany for having played nobody and 9-2 TN St for having their only "big" win against BCC and two bad losses (Jax St/Murray St)].

EDIT: Assuming the five seeds (I'm not sure that applies yet), I DID grant EWU a seed. I felt that the Sky was strong enough to get two seeds, with three other teams getting bids (most will go with four Sky teams, and they'll have a pretty good argument for that).

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I know I'm going to regret asking because your answer will probably involve jesus and what you ate today, but how would a 9-2 UNH and a 9-1 MSU beat out 9-2 EWU for higher seeds? EWU has played much tougher schedule than both, no blowout losses, FBS win, and head to head over MSU.

It's all about timing and momentum. Unfortunately if EWU and MSU win out, MSU will be ranked higher and more than likely rewarded a higher seed.

It's the same reason Montana got a seed over Weber State in 2008. (Thanks again, Eagles )

EWU was ranked #1 in 2010, 7 game win streak, and yet MSU was awarded a higher seed than EWU because of the head to head, and also despite MSU losing later in the season to NAU.

[uofmman1122]

Well, keep this in mind, SE, even if MSU wins out and gets a seed and EWU has to go there, you've already won there once, and MSU is a virtual lock to get blown out in the first or second rounds. Ash can't coach for shit in the playoffs.

But don't worry. They won't win out, anyways.

In B4 2506 projectile diarrheas from his mouth overzealously all over this thread.

[CatBlitz22]

But don't worry. They won't win out, anyways.

Already won one bet with your brethren, would you like to add to my spoils?

[kalm]

I know I'm going to regret asking because your answer will probably involve jesus and what you ate today, but how would a 9-2 UNH and a 9-1 MSU beat out 9-2 EWU for higher seeds? EWU has played much tougher schedule than both, no blowout losses, FBS win, and head to head over MSU.

It's all about timing and momentum. Unfortunately if EWU and MSU win out, MSU will be ranked higher and more than likely rewarded a higher seed.

It's the same reason Montana got a seed over Weber State in 2008. (Thanks again, Eagles )

Maybe, but UM also lost on the road that year.

It would make very little sense to seed MSU ahead of it's own conference champion (assuming NAU loses to CP), who it lost to at home, and who has the superior strength of schedule with more quality wins.

[skinny_uncle]

I have a problem picturing a bracket with only one MVFC team in. I don't see that happening. No way a 7-4 Sac State gets in ahead of probably at least of couple of Valley teams with 8 wins.

[BlueHen86]

After this week's games and a look at resumes, I settled on this. Let me state right from the get-go that there is a bit of homerism here as I recognize that ECB will likely keep Sac out at 7-4.

If Sac doesn't make the playoffs it won't be because of ECB, it will be because they finished 7-4 and in 5th place in their conference.

They might make it at 7-4, especially if Cal Poly loses one more game, but don't blame a playoff omission on ECB when you lost 4 games.

[BisoNation]

After this week's games and a look at resumes, I settled on this. Let me state right from the get-go that there is a bit of homerism here as I recognize that ECB will likely keep Sac out at 7-4. But after looking at other teams, I eliminated some for having no big wins or for playing D-II, allowing me to enter Sac (even if a bit dubiously) as the only 7-4 team in the field in the last spot (just barely, BTW). I tried to regionalize it, but didn't get as good a regionalized deal as the last one. There are a LOT of teams having to cross the Mississippi in this scenario. You'll note that a LOT of teams from my previous bracket have dropped out. I emphasized my poll last time, and my evaluation of resumes this time, and some that I had up pretty high in my poll washed out. Additionally, I had to make a few guesses as to the auto-bids as a LOT of conferences look to have ties at the top, and I don't know how they plan to break the ties. Theoretically, the Big South can have a 3-way tie between Stony Brook, Coastal, and Liberty, with all three 1-1 H2H, but I'm presuming here for sake of argument that Stony Brook wins the auto-bid regardless, and that CCU and Liberty are both toast.

First Round

Sac St (7-4) @ TN-Martin (8-3)
Wagner (8-3) @ Appalachian St (8-3)
TN St (9-2) @ Lehigh (11-0)
Bethune-Cookman (9-2) @ Cal Poly (9-2)

Second Round

Sac/Martin Winner @ 1 NDSU (10-1)
SHSU (8-3) @ NAU (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2) @ 5 EWU (9-2)
Wag/App Winner @ 4 MSU

TN St/Lehigh Winner @ 3 UNH (9-2)
JMU (8-3) @ GA Southern (8-3)
Wofford (8-3) @ UCA (9-2)
BCC/CP Winner @ 2 ODU (10-1)

I still have an NDSU-ODU final with NDSU winning.

Illinois State will be in the playoffs, they have 8 wins with an FBS win. They're for sure in over Sac State, and they can still even win the MVFC auto-bid. South Dakota State will be in with 8+ wins after a for sure win against South Dakota to end the year. Valley gets 3 in for sure.

[skinny_uncle]

Illinois State will be in the playoffs, they have 8 wins with an FBS win. They're for sure in over Sac State, and they can still even win the MVFC auto-bid. South Dakota State will be in with 8+ wins after a for sure win against South Dakota to end the year. Valley gets 3 in for sure.

Indiana State would get in over SAC. 7-3 with a win over the team ranked #1 most of the year should count for something.

[BlueHen86]

I have a problem picturing a bracket with only one MVFC team in. I don't see that happening. No way a 7-4 Sac State gets in ahead of probably at least of couple of Valley teams with 8 wins.

Gotta agree here. It's hard to put a 7-4 team in over an 8-3 team from a conference as strong as the MVFC.

If you're 8-3 in the CAA, Socon, Big Sky, Southland or MVFC you're getting in ahead of almost any 7-4 team.

[BisoNation]

Illinois State will be in the playoffs, they have 8 wins with an FBS win. They're for sure in over Sac State, and they can still even win the MVFC auto-bid. South Dakota State will be in with 8+ wins after a for sure win against South Dakota to end the year. Valley gets 3 in for sure.

Indiana State would get in over SAC. 7-3 with a win over the team ranked #1 most of the year should count for something.

They would need to beat YSU first on their last game, one of those wins is D-2, so they're only at 6 D-1 wins.

[Grizalltheway]

But don't worry. They won't win out, anyways.

Already won one bet with your brethren, would you like to add to my spoils?

Speaking of bets, we need to get an avatar thing going for The Brawl. That was fun last year.

[CatBlitz22]

Already won one bet with your brethren, would you like to add to my spoils?

Speaking of bets, we need to get an avatar thing going for The Brawl. That was fun last year.

I'll do it if AZ gets me my beer.

[cats2506]

Already won one bet with your brethren, would you like to add to my spoils?

Speaking of bets, we need to get an avatar thing going for The Brawl. That was fun last year.

I am in again, I guess you guys won the last one so get to pick the matchups

[cats2506]

Speaking of bets, we need to get an avatar thing going for The Brawl. That was fun last year.

I'll do it if AZ gets me my beer.

I just had AZ go double or nothing on the Cat/fizz game

[SuperHornet]

Indiana State would get in over SAC. 7-3 with a win over the team ranked #1 most of the year should count for something.

They would need to beat YSU first on their last game, one of those wins is D-2, so they're only at 6 D-1 wins.

Which was why I eliminated IN St.

As far as IL St, that FBS win is meaningless in comparison to Sac, as Sac has a Pac-12 win with the same record as the MAC POS IL St beat.

EDIT: Additionally, two of Sac's losses are by a combined LESS THAN A FULL TOUCHDOWN to the then-#1 and then-#3 team in the country. The loss to potential 6-5 UND washes out with IL St's loss to potential 6-5 SIU. That leaves IL St with a devastating loss to potential 3-8 SW MO. Sac comes out better in the wash than IL St, IMO. I think 86 can come up with a better candidate....

[BisoNation]

They would need to beat YSU first on their last game, one of those wins is D-2, so they're only at 6 D-1 wins.

Which was why I eliminated IN St.

As far as IL St, that FBS win is meaningless in comparison to Sac, as Sac has a Pac-12 win with the same record as the MAC POS IL St beat.

EDIT: Additionally, two of Sac's losses are by a combined LESS THAN A FULL TOUCHDOWN to the then-#1 and then-#3 team in the country. The loss to potential 6-5 UND washes out with IL St's loss to potential 6-5 SIU. That leaves IL St with a devastating loss to potential 3-8 SW MO. Sac comes out better in the wash than IL St, IMO. I think 86 can come up with a better candidate....

8 win Valley team makes the playoffs, there's no debate about it. You can try to rationalize putting Sac State in but you cannot rationalize putting them in and not putting an 8 win Valley team in. And if you're trying to argue Colorado is a good FBS win, goodluck with that. Half the FCS could beat Colorado.

[SuperHornet]

Which was why I eliminated IN St.

As far as IL St, that FBS win is meaningless in comparison to Sac, as Sac has a Pac-12 win with the same record as the MAC POS IL St beat.

EDIT: Additionally, two of Sac's losses are by a combined LESS THAN A FULL TOUCHDOWN to the then-#1 and then-#3 team in the country. The loss to potential 6-5 UND washes out with IL St's loss to potential 6-5 SIU. That leaves IL St with a devastating loss to potential 3-8 SW MO. Sac comes out better in the wash than IL St, IMO. I think 86 can come up with a better candidate....

8 win Valley team makes the playoffs, there's no debate about it. You can try to rationalize putting Sac State in but you cannot rationalize putting them in and not putting an 8 win Valley team in. And if you're trying to argue Colorado is a good FBS win, goodluck with that. Half the FCS could beat Colorado.

What I'm saying is that Colorado is a better FBS win than Eastern Michigan. Not only is the Pac-12 better than the MAC, Colorado's one win (Wazzu) is better than EMU's (Army).

[BisoNation]

8 win Valley team makes the playoffs, there's no debate about it. You can try to rationalize putting Sac State in but you cannot rationalize putting them in and not putting an 8 win Valley team in. And if you're trying to argue Colorado is a good FBS win, goodluck with that. Half the FCS could beat Colorado.

What I'm saying is that Colorado is a better FBS win than Eastern Michigan. Not only is the Pac-12 better than the MAC, Colorado's one win (Wazzu) is better than EMU's (Army).

Fair enough. But it's not like Illinois State had a cake walk to getting 8 wins, and you can't say that extra win is worthless especially when they're in a power conference. Take the Sagarin ratings for what they're worth, but Ill St's schedule ranks 155, Sac St's 165. So I'd say their schedules are at the least very comparable. 8 wins > 7 wins

[SuperHornet]

The MVC may well be considered a "power conference," but it's certainly not the only one. I would also consider the CAA, the SoCon, and the Big Sky in that category as well.