BDKJMU wrote:
HIGHLY unlikely any conference is going to get 5 teams in. The Big Sky has the best shot at 4.
MVFC will get 2-3, 1-2 at Large (NDSU, YSU, and maybe IL State or SDSU)
So-Con will likely get 3, 2 at large (Wofford, GSU, and either ASU or Samford)
CAA will get 3-4: 2-3 at large (ODU, JMU, UNH, maybe TU)
Big Sky will likely get 4, 3 At Large
Between the Southland and the OVC, they'll get 1-2 At Large
Thats 9-12 At Large, and there's only 10 At Large spots. 4 I-AA losses (if Montana loses another) likely isn't going to cut it...
If there ends up being 5 truly deserving teams from the Big Sky, why shouldn't they all get in? The precedent is certainly there with the CAA.
If the 5th team from the Big Sky is more deserving for the 10th At Large than whatever other teams that are being considered for that last spot, then they'll get in. Things would have to break right in the BSC and the other conferences to see that happen.
Remember, there are 6 weeks left, and with the Big Sky/CAA/So-Con/MVFC your going to have a # of bottom half of the conference teams upset top half of the conference teams.
I shouldn't get sucked into these playoff speulatin threads till Week 10/early Nov ..
JMU Football:
4 Years FBS: 40-11 (.784). Highest winning percentage & least losses of all of G5 2022-2025.
Sun Belt East Champions: 2022, 2023, 2025
Sun Belt Champions: 2025
Top 25 ranked: 2022, 2023, 2025
CFP: 2025
Grizalltheway wrote:
If there ends up being 5 truly deserving teams from the Big Sky, why shouldn't they all get in? The precedent is certainly there with the CAA.
If the 5th team from the Big Sky is more deserving for the 10th At Large than whatever other teams that are being considered for that last spot, then they'll get in. Things would have to break right in the BSC and the other conferences to see that happen.
Remember, there are 6 weeks left, and with the Big Sky/CAA/So-Con/MVFC your going to have a # of bottom half of the conference teams upset top half of the conference teams.
I shouldn't get sucked into these playoff speulatin threads till Week 10/early Nov ..
It's not unreasonable to see:
MSU 11-0 or 10-1 or 9-2 (losses to EWU and/or Griz or no one)
EWU 10-1 or 9-2 or 8-3 (Loss to CP and/or MSU)
CP 10-1 or 9-2 (Loss to EWU and/or NAU)
NAU 10-1 (Loss to CP)
UM 8-3 (Runs the table)
That's how the top 5 teams face each other the rest of the season. You could throw Sac in the midst but they still have to play EWU, CP, and MSU so I think they have a much more unlikely path than the Griz.
But yes, the odds of one of those five being upset by a lower division team are good.
Sagarin's ratings are now "connected" and "unbiased." Of course the conference strength ratings are kind of an "average." You can see what Sagarin means by "central mean" in the discussion above the ratings. But it's very close to just the simple average. So that means very weak teams in a conference count (I think they should but others think they shouldn't). Anyway, at this point the ratings are based strictly on what has happened on the field. Who beat who and by how much. And here they are:
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star? Deep Purple: No One Came
MSU 11-0 or 10-1 or 9-2 (losses to EWU and/or Griz or no one)
EWU 10-1 or 9-2 or 8-3 (Loss to CP and/or MSU)
CP 10-1 or 9-2 (Loss to EWU and/or NAU)
NAU 10-1 (Loss to CP)
UM 8-3 (Runs the table)
That's how the top 5 teams face each other the rest of the season. You could throw Sac in the midst but they still have to play EWU, CP, and MSU so I think they have a much more unlikely path than the Griz.
But yes, the odds of one of those five being upset by a lower division team are good.
Not unreasonable, but I think unlikely. Throwing Sac in would be unreasonable.
I inadvertently cropped Sagarin off the right side
"But the damned and the guiltiest among you are the men who had the capacity to know, yet chose to blank out reality, the men who were willing to sell their intelligence into cynical servitude..."
- John Galt
I have not seen the rules for this year, but Massey has been cited in previous years rules as a reference to examine and rank at-large teams that were not otherwise qualified via auto-bids. It also incorporated specific elements from within Massey (Wolfe, GPI, Laz -- Hinkle wasn't one, nor was Sagarin, if I recall correctly) to determine a general standard of at-large rankings.
I trying to do you a favor being that this is a thread about the greatness of the Big Sky (noting there are more CAA teams in the top 40!).
"But the damned and the guiltiest among you are the men who had the capacity to know, yet chose to blank out reality, the men who were willing to sell their intelligence into cynical servitude..."
- John Galt
Aho Old Guy wrote:I have not seen the rules for this year, but Massey has been cited in previous years rules as a reference to examine and rank at-large teams that were not otherwise qualified for auto-bids. It also incorporated specific elements from within Massey (Wolfe, GPI, Laz -- Hinkle wasn't one, nor was Sagarin, if I recall correctly) to determine a general standard of at-large rankings.
I trying to do you a favor being that this is a thread about the greatness of the Big Sky (noting there are more CAA teams in the top 40!).
I don't care if Massey has CAA teams ranked 1-10, it's a crap product. We rehashed this over and over at AGS throughout the years. You can either look it up or take my word for it, the GPI and Massey were both worse predictors of the at-large field than the AGS Poll. That's a fact.
If AGS and CS had a unified poll, I think it would be even better. A lot of the more knowledgable and less homer posters came over here and stopped voting in the AGS poll.
uofmman1122 wrote:If AGS and CS had a unified poll, I think it would be even better. A lot of the more knowledgable and less homer posters came over here and stopped voting in the AGS poll.
Some dickwad over there had Lehigh in the top 5, and NDSU not even in the top 10. It was probably TheFan under a new name.
We don't need no stinkin polls! That's what we have the playoffs for.
JMU Football:
4 Years FBS: 40-11 (.784). Highest winning percentage & least losses of all of G5 2022-2025.
Sun Belt East Champions: 2022, 2023, 2025
Sun Belt Champions: 2025
Top 25 ranked: 2022, 2023, 2025
CFP: 2025
89Hen wrote:OK, this is the earliest I've ever done this, but I'm not really predicting, just listing which teams are most likely going to get to 8-3 or better (and be legit). The biggest mess IMO is the SoCon. El Cid really effed things up by beating GSU and AppSt and then losing to Chatty. The GSU/AppSt game will most likely be for one of them to get to 8-3, the other ends 7-4.
That leaves 22 teams already with an auto or 8-3+ record and as many as 24 with a potential claim:
Big Sky: MSU, CP, NAU, EWU
CAA: ODU, TU, JMU, UNH, UD
MVFC: NDSU, ISU, YSU, SDSU
SoCon: Wofford, El Cid, AppSt/GSU
Southland: one team will be 8-3 or better
OVC: EKU, TSU*
Patriot: LU/LC winner*
MEAC: auto only
Big South: auto only
NEC: auto only
*Spoilers: Tennessee State loses to EKU but goes 10-1, Lehigh loses to Lafayette but goes 10-1
It will take quite a bit for a 7-4 team to make the field this year.
JohnStOnge wrote:Sagarin's ratings are now "connected" and "unbiased." Of course the conference strength ratings are kind of an "average." You can see what Sagarin means by "central mean" in the discussion above the ratings. But it's very close to just the simple average. So that means very weak teams in a conference count (I think they should but others think they shouldn't). Anyway, at this point the ratings are based strictly on what has happened on the field. Who beat who and by how much. And here they are:
The GSU/AppSt game will most likely be for one of them to get to 8-3, the other ends 7-4.
