NCAA Predictions for every game left in the season

[CAA Flagship]

Is it sad that I would take the 4 Big Sky wins for Davis, after what i saw in the 2nd half against San Jose St. on Saturday. Especially, if that includes a win over Sucktown.

Ditto. Poor scheduling gives us Montana State for Homecoming - not a happy thought. I think we will get a little better idea of how our season is going to end up after the next two games for UC Davis - SDSU and Cal Poly, both away.

What the heck is going on with your program? I thought the stadium upgrade was going to give you guys a boost.
What's going on?

[89Hen]

Weak compared to what? Post your picks for every game every week, then judge. No offense.

I run a pick'em game for on this site (and AGS)....Out of 2,444 submitted picks thus far this season (first two weeks of AGS top 25 poll and random games I picked) the average correct score is 75%.

I'll get you a total after the season if you would like...as well as calculating the % of correct post season participants that were submitted in August...

The knowledgable fans have ALWAYS done better than the computers.

[clenz]

Ill also add the average correct score for those whom are the most active on here and ags is closer to 85...and if i take out any game that uses fbs teams the overall averqge goes up to roughly 85 and 90 for the most active

Sent from my SCH-I500 using Tapatalk 2

[ebemiss]

I run a pick'em game for on this site (and AGS)....Out of 2,444 submitted picks thus far this season (first two weeks of AGS top 25 poll and random games I picked) the average correct score is 75%.

I'll get you a total after the season if you would like...as well as calculating the % of correct post season participants that were submitted in August...

The knowledgable fans have ALWAYS done better than the computers.

So then pick every game 89hen, like my rankings have done. You won't though because you know you wouldn't be any better than my numbers for every game for the rest of the season. You'll just pretend you'd be. You're the one who thinks it's so easy. Do it then. Wait...you won't.

It's also ridiculous to think win percentages from hand picking 30 games and people hitting 75% should be judged the same as predicting EVERY GAME like I've done. Either track the same games or don't track them at all. You can't compare win percentages with my numbers picking 60 games to users picking 30.

[Mike Johnson]

SUU has already played 3 games or only has 10 on the schedule?

SUU hosts Division II New Mexico Highlands this week. That game wasn't included in the data.

In almost every year, New Mexico Highlands would be a cream puff. But, they just went into a conference rival, Fort Lewis, and beat them 50-0. Their first game was a 42-14 win over Eastern New Mexico. I think they might have put more points on the board in two games than they do in an average years. I think SUU takes them, if only because of 60 scholarships vs. 20 or less, but I don't think they expected NMHU to suddenly appear as a quality Division II program.

[Mike Johnson]

The knowledgable fans have ALWAYS done better than the computers.

Not true, the computers generally do better than the human polls, at least in terms of (1) predicting game outcomes and (2) being able to earlier in the year identify teams that will end up highly ranked. But, neither does very well this early in the season.

[ebemiss]

SUU has already played 3 games or only has 10 on the schedule?

SUU hosts Division II New Mexico Highlands this week. That game wasn't included in the data.

I posted this about D2 schools earlier in this thread.

Any games vs D2 schools aren't likely to be on this schedule as well, that may skew your projected won/loss record.

[Seahawks08]

nova picked to lose against UD. Looks like a nova win then!

[ebemiss]

Rankings have been updated after this weekend's games.

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/ncaafprojections" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[clenz]

The picks for this week on my game raised the overall % by about a half percent. Creeping up on 76% correct by humans.


Also, if the computer program is well written, it should be far more accurate than humans (even if it doesn't include D2). It takes all games, transitive properties, spreads, etc... into account. If a human out picks the computer, the computer isn't worth much - with that said I do really enjoy the work you do. The the fact the computer has to do twice as many games should make it much more accurate....

[ebemiss]

I didn't post these projections to get in a pissing match. I posted them because most people enjoy predictions/lists/rankings and there aren't a ton of FCS rankings and predictions out there. My NFL and NCAA numbers are among the best in the country tracked every week. My numbers did great in your "pickem" games as well this week.

I'm done defending my rankings against humans or anything else. Like I said track them yourself. The predictions were all posted well before all the games start.

[89Hen]

The knowledgable fans have ALWAYS done better than the computers.

Not true, the computers generally do better than the human polls, at least in terms of (1) predicting game outcomes and (2) being able to earlier in the year identify teams that will end up highly ranked. But, neither does very well this early in the season.

Show it. I have yet to meet a computer guy who will track their results.

[89Hen]

Like I said track them yourself.

I was saying.

[ebemiss]

Like I said track them yourself.

I was saying.

Every prediction was posted prior to the games starting. Funny I didn't see your picks posted in this thread. Big waste of my time. You know exactly how well they did. Loser

[89Hen]

I was saying.

Every prediction was posted prior to the games starting. Funny I didn't see your picks posted in this thread. Big waste of my time. You know exactly how well they did. Loser

Week 3 are gone. As soon as the SN Top 25 comes out we will post your predictions for those games. We can then compare them to the 50+ humans who post their picks on gohens.

[clenz]

I was saying.

Every prediction was posted prior to the games starting. Funny I didn't see your picks posted in this thread. Big waste of my time. You know exactly how well they did. Loser

I've already said I completely appreciate what you do and your picks. I really do enjoy looking at them.


I'll start entering you in my contest so we can track how you do from here on out.

[ebemiss]

Every prediction was posted prior to the games starting. Funny I didn't see your picks posted in this thread. Big waste of my time. You know exactly how well they did. Loser

I've already said I completely appreciate what you do and your picks. I really do enjoy looking at them.


I'll start entering you in my contest so we can track how you do from here on out.

I said that from the beginning.Im not afraid of being wrong.89hen is the one with the big mouth but doesn't post his picks for every game to compare. My rankings aren't perfect but I'm not scared to compare them or compete with anyone

[89Hen]

I've already said I completely appreciate what you do and your picks. I really do enjoy looking at them.


I'll start entering you in my contest so we can track how you do from here on out.

I said that from the beginning.Im not afraid of being wrong.89hen is the one with the big mouth but doesn't post his picks for every game to compare. My rankings aren't perfect but I'm not scared to compare them or compete with anyone

My picks including scores for the CAA are here every week. My picks for the Top 25 I-AA teams are on gohens.net.

Week 1 = 21-2
Week 2 = missed
Week 3 = 17-3

[89Hen]

SN Top 25 are out:

North Dakota St. 47.17 - Prairie View A&M 6.16
Montana St. 38.02 - Northern Colorado 17.98
Sam Houston St. 31.3 - Central Arkansas 25.63
Northern Iowa 22.54 - Youngstown St. 21.42
Old Dominion 42.62 - New Hampshire 30.27
James Madison 25.98 - Rhode Island 13.86
Eastern Wash. 29.1- Weber St. 19.82
N.C. State 28.44 - Citadel 15.77
Georgia Southern 44.87 - Elon 18.2
Delaware 20.12 - William & Mary 19.29
Towson 45.65 - St. Francis (PA) 20.62
Montana 32.36 - Northern Arizona 18.44
Illinois St. 33.59 - Western Ill. 27.53
Lehigh 26.84 - Liberty 26.49
Chattanooga 29.47 - Appalachian St. 26.19
McNeese St. 35.47 - SE Louisiana 21.37
Stony Brook 36.61 - Colgate 22
Jacksonville St. 25.96 - Eastern Kentucky 25.53
Indiana St. 29.29 - South Dakota St. 21.71
Maine 29.28 - Albany 23.02

[ebemiss]

I said that from the beginning.Im not afraid of being wrong.89hen is the one with the big mouth but doesn't post his picks for every game to compare. My rankings aren't perfect but I'm not scared to compare them or compete with anyone

My picks including scores for the CAA are here every week. My picks for the Top 25 I-AA teams are on gohens.net.

Week 1 = 21-2
Week 2 = missed
Week 3 = 17-3

Were are they this week? Again picking select games or just one conference is a joke. Pick them all and lets compare. You seem to think you are so much better so prove it. Anyone can concentrate on 1 conference and be an "expert". Pick all the games in FCS. You've said how it's so easy, do it then. Put the all the picks in this thread and we'll compare them for the rest of the season every week. You won't because you'd rather just pretend you know more than you do.

My proof of performance is listed right here for every game, and I have last weeks numbers(below).

Here are my ratings and totals for week 3 (if a minus sign is next to a number that means a home favorite. If just the number is listed it means a road favorite)

so it reads like this for the first game... Tenn Martin -20.07 total of 61.04

SE Louisiana Tenn-Martin 61.04 -20.07 9/13/2012
Alabama Arkansas 55.55 11.56 9/15/2012
Alabama St. Grambling St. 44.46 10.07 9/15/2012
Albany Youngstown St. 53.41 -3.94 9/15/2012
AR Pine Bluff Alcorn St. 50.57 -7.17 9/15/2012
Arizona State Missouri 59.78 -6.62 9/15/2012
Arkansas State Nebraska 59.99 -20.79 9/15/2012
Austin Peay Tennessee St. 61.40 -12.89 9/15/2012
Ball St. Indiana 67.37 -7.72 9/15/2012
Bethune-Cookman Miami (FL) 56.41 -33.22 9/15/2012
Boston College Northwestern 50.05 0.57 9/15/2012
Bowling Green Toledo 59.81 -7.77 9/15/2012
Brown Holy Cross 41.92 -3.67 9/15/2012
Bucknell Delaware 37.06 -28.55 9/15/2012
Butler Dartmouth 42.77 -8.35 9/15/2012
BYU Utah 42.26 1.14 9/15/2012
Cal Poly Wyoming 55.45 -14.36 9/15/2012
California Ohio St. 53.80 -14.07 9/15/2012
Campbell Old Dominion 70.28 -38.07 9/15/2012
Central Conn. St. New Hampshire 65.04 -24.41 9/15/2012
Charleston Sou. Illinois 48.24 -47.82 9/15/2012
Citadel Appalachian St. 45.39 -2.64 9/15/2012
Colorado Fresno St. 57.56 -11.27 9/15/2012
Colorado St. San Jose St. 46.67 -10.64 9/15/2012
Connecticut Maryland 48.80 1.80 9/15/2012
Cornell Fordham 45.76 -0.78 9/15/2012
Delaware St. Cincinnati 51.96 -45.99 9/15/2012
Drake Indiana St. 53.75 -17.33 9/15/2012
Duquesne Valparaiso 49.46 36.75 9/15/2012
East Carolina Southern Miss 64.68 -5.46 9/15/2012
East. Michigan Purdue 48.24 -21.99 9/15/2012
Eastern Illinois Illinois St. 54.44 -13.93 9/15/2012
Eastern Kentucky Coastal Carolina 45.59 -4.62 9/15/2012
Florida Tennessee 45.28 2.44 9/15/2012
Florida Atlantic Georgia 47.24 -48.98 9/15/2012
Florida International UCF 51.25 -11.36 9/15/2012
Furman Clemson 65.21 -27.12 9/15/2012
Hampton Florida A&M 49.79 -3.84 9/15/2012
Houston UCLA 64.52 -11.03 9/15/2012
Howard Norfolk St. 41.64 -19.11 9/15/2012
Idaho LSU 46.59 -49.12 9/15/2012
Jackson St. Texas Southern 54.97 3.84 9/15/2012
LA Lafayette Oklahoma St. 73.42 -25.38 9/15/2012
LA Monroe Auburn 52.94 -17.76 9/15/2012
Lamar Hawaii 56.75 -28.16 9/15/2012
Liberty Montana 55.20 -7.00 9/15/2012
Maine Bryant 46.37 16.38 9/15/2012
Marist Columbia 39.39 5.54 9/15/2012
Massachusetts Michigan 49.81 -40.74 9/15/2012
McNeese St. Weber St. 48.42 -3.90 9/15/2012
Miami (OH) Boise State 47.28 -21.19 9/15/2012
Middle Tenn. St. Memphis 57.53 -2.76 9/15/2012
Miss. Valley St. Southern 51.92 -9.29 9/15/2012
Mississippi St. Troy 52.19 23.85 9/15/2012
Monmouth Wagner 41.42 10.45 9/15/2012
Morgan St. Akron 56.05 -18.56 9/15/2012
Murray St. Missouri St. 66.32 -2.72 9/15/2012
N.C. Central Duke 60.70 -41.37 9/15/2012
Navy Penn St. 45.35 -9.48 9/15/2012
New Mexico Texas Tech 64.17 -31.42 9/15/2012
New Mexico St. UTEP 56.89 -14.44 9/15/2012
Nicholls St. Tulsa 52.10 -44.89 9/15/2012
North Carolina Louisville 50.23 -1.61 9/15/2012
North Dakota San Diego St. 47.69 -21.36 9/15/2012
North Texas Kansas St. 56.86 -26.12 9/15/2012
Northern Colorado Sacramento St. 58.73 -11.94 9/15/2012
Northern Illinois Army 50.86 5.94 9/15/2012
Northern Iowa Iowa 37.08 -12.76 9/15/2012
Northwestern St. Nevada 52.06 -31.06 9/15/2012
Notre Dame Michigan St. 46.55 -3.88 9/15/2012
Ohio Marshall 58.15 7.80 9/15/2012
Pennsylvania Lafayette 48.70 2.12 9/15/2012
Portland St. Washington 64.77 -32.77 9/15/2012
Prairie View A&M Alabama A&M 45.84 -6.27 9/15/2012
Presbyterian Vanderbilt 57.81 -44.18 9/15/2012
Princeton Lehigh 57.32 -23.60 9/15/2012
Rhode Island Villanova 55.02 -7.92 9/15/2012
Rice Louisiana Tech 57.74 -23.57 9/15/2012
Richmond Virginia Military 46.09 20.48 9/15/2012
Robert Morris Dayton 45.38 1.12 9/15/2012
Rutgers South Florida 44.02 -11.54 9/15/2012
S. Carolina St. Arizona 54.94 -28.01 9/15/2012
Sacred Heart Colgate 52.98 -11.49 9/15/2012
Sam Houston St. Baylor 74.59 -14.85 9/15/2012
Samford Gardner-Webb 40.35 14.36 9/15/2012
San Diego Harvard 50.27 -21.47 9/15/2012
SE Missouri St. Southern Ill. 51.19 -17.46 9/15/2012
South Alabama N.C. State 47.89 -33.07 9/15/2012
St. Francis (PA) Morehead St. 68.44 -1.63 9/15/2012
Stephen F. Austin Montana St. 62.47 -11.01 9/15/2012
Stony Brook Syracuse 60.98 -15.38 9/15/2012
TCU Kansas 59.52 20.92 9/15/2012
Tennessee Tech Oregon 71.01 -48.56 9/15/2012
Texas Mississippi 45.54 13.29 9/15/2012
Texas A&M SMU 54.42 7.75 9/15/2012
UAB South Carolina 53.10 -41.43 9/15/2012
UC Davis South Dakota St. 51.87 -2.32 9/15/2012
USC Stanford 58.76 5.58 9/15/2012
Utah State Wisconsin 53.25 -13.63 9/15/2012
UTSA Georgia St. 49.80 6.15 9/15/2012
Virginia Georgia Tech 48.18 -13.09 9/15/2012
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 42.91 8.01 9/15/2012
W. Michigan Minnesota 58.70 -1.56 9/15/2012
Wake Forest Florida St. 48.95 -27.20 9/15/2012
Washington St. UNLV 56.34 12.33 9/15/2012
West Virginia James Madison 54.69 17.73 9/15/2012
West. Kentucky Kentucky 47.99 -4.82 9/15/2012
Western Carolina Wofford 48.55 -29.65 9/15/2012
Western Ill. Iowa St. 55.79 -29.81 9/15/2012
William & Mary Towson 53.19 -7.95 9/15/2012
Yale Georgetown 52.21 -0.94 9/15/2012

[clenz]

I will restate what I said earlier....


Well written computer programs should out do humans, and it's not even close...especially if the computer is going to take into account every single game. By doing so it allows the computer to compare every team through as many different avenues as possible.

Humans, however, have bias and what not. The fact humans ever come close to computers (not just yours, but any of them) tends to make me lean more towards humans.

At this point you are so on the defensive it will be impossible to rationalize with you, though.

[ebemiss]

I will restate what I said earlier....


Well written computer programs should out do humans, and it's not even close...especially if the computer is going to take into account every single game. By doing so it allows the computer to compare every team through as many different avenues as possible.

Humans, however, have bias and what not. The fact humans ever come close to computers (not just yours, but any of them) tends to make me lean more towards humans.

At this point you are so on the defensive it will be impossible to rationalize with you, though.

I've read what you've said, I'm not addressing you. I'm addressing the guy who knows everything, 89 hen.

[89Hen]

Shocker, another smarmy computer guy.

Trying to read these results gives one a headache. I know you missed these three:

Cal Poly Wyoming 55.45 -14.36 9/15/2012
Citadel Appalachian St. 45.39 -2.64 9/15/2012
McNeese St. Weber St. 48.42 -3.90 9/15/2012

Do you have your week one results?

[ebemiss]

Shocker, another smarmy computer guy.

Trying to read these results gives one a headache. I know you missed these three:

Cal Poly Wyoming 55.45 -14.36 9/15/2012
Citadel Appalachian St. 45.39 -2.64 9/15/2012
McNeese St. Weber St. 48.42 -3.90 9/15/2012

Do you have your week one results?

No. Last week was the first week I've posted them. I waited 2 weeks to get some data to work with.

You know what all I did was post my picks, and you've stated you can do better. So do it. Post all your picks like I've suggested. If not I'd rather not listen to anymore of your nonsense.

[ebemiss]

It's funny. Every sports book in the world had those 3 games wrong you posted. They had the same favorites as I did. I'll take that any day of the week. (The fact that my numbers are on the same side as people making lines)They are a lot better at this than I am and my numbers agreed. I'm happy with that.

I adjusted them and moved on.