If you're smarter you'll vote Democrat?

[JohnStOnge]

MaineJeff inspired me to post this. My perception has been, in watching liberal talking heads as well as liberals on message boards over the years, that they think people vote Republican because they are stupid. I get the impression that they think that if you are more "enlightened" you will vote Democrat. I am going to post some exit polling results from the most recent national election (2010 House elections) below. In viewing them, bear in mind the following pretty much universally accepted beliefs about correlations between various attributes and IQ:

IQ is positively correlated with educational attainment level (higher education level, higher IQ)
IQ is positively correlated with income (higher income, higher IQ)
IQ is correlated with race, with the groups specified in the exit polling results arranged in following order (estimated average IQs in parenthesis from Hernstien and Murray's The Bell Curve, but if you Google around you're going to see that these are pretty consistent with anything you're going to get):
Asians (106)
Whites (103)
Latinos (89)
Blacks (85)
Note: Fairness dictates that among Whites, Jews are estimated in The Bell Curve to have an average IQ of 113. Jews do typically vote majority Democrat by a substantial margin. However, they are such a small percentage of the electorate (2% of those polled during exit polling in 2010) that an exit poll estimate could not be derived.

With those correlations in mind, take a look at the exit polling estimates below for the 2010 election and comment on whether or not you REALLY think the IQ distribution of those who voted Democrat was higher (the percentage of voters polled belonging to each group in parenthesis):

Exit polling results from http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#USH00p1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



EDUCATION

Did not finish high school (3%) Democrat 57%, Republican 36%
High school graduate (17%) Democrat 46%, Republican 52%
Some college (28%) Democrat 43%, Republican 53%
College graduate (30%) Democrat 40%, Republican 58%
Post graduate (21%) Democrat 53%, Republican 45%

INCOME

Under $30,000 (17%) Democrat 57%, Republican 40%
$30,000 - $50,000 (19%) Democrat 51%, Republican 46%
$50,000 - $75,000 (21%) Democrat 45%, Republican 51%
$75,000 - $100,000 (15%) Democrat 42%, Republican 56%
$100,000 - $200,000 (19%) Democrat 43%, Republican 56%
$200,000 or more (8%) Democrat 34%, Republican 64%

RACE

White (77%) Democrat 37%, Republican 60%
Black (11%) Democrat 89%, Republican 9%
Latino (8%) Democrat 60%, Republican 38%
Asian (2%) Democrat 58%, Republican 40%

[Baldy]

[DSUrocks07]

I am the 9%

Sent from my VM670 using Tapatalk 2

[blueballs]

I think there's more to it than that...

I have no statistics to back this up, but in my observation of life I've come to the opinion that those who are the least secure- generally speaking- vote democrat.

When I speak of less secure I mean the generationally poor, single women, older people who didn't plan for retirement properly, those who squandered educational opportunities and have underachieved financially, those who participate in alternative lifestyles, etc. To me that is the typical democrat voter... somebody who is for whatever reason unwilling (which causes them to be unable) to take advantage of the tremendous opportunity our society has offered us and wants the government to intervene on their behalf.

I think if you looked at the people who grasp the american dream (solid education, solid career, nuclear family, judeo-christian values) and take advantage of the tremendous opportunities we all have in general they'll overwhelmingly vote GOP or libertarian.

[BlueHen86]

IQ is positively correlated with educational attainment level (higher education level, higher IQ)IQ is positively correlated with income (higher income, higher IQ)

With those correlations in mind, take a look at the exit polling estimates below for the 2010 election and comment on whether or not you REALLY think the IQ distribution of those who voted Democrat was higher (the percentage of voters polled belonging to each group in parenthesis):


EDUCATION

Did not finish high school (3%) Democrat 57%, Republican 36%
High school graduate (17%) Democrat 46%, Republican 52%
Some college (28%) Democrat 43%, Republican 53%
College graduate (30%) Democrat 40%, Republican 58%
Post graduate (21%) Democrat 53%, Republican 45%

INCOME

Under $30,000 (17%) Democrat 57%, Republican 40%
$30,000 - $50,000 (19%) Democrat 51%, Republican 46%
$50,000 - $75,000 (21%) Democrat 45%, Republican 51%
$75,000 - $100,000 (15%) Democrat 42%, Republican 56%
$100,000 - $200,000 (19%) Democrat 43%, Republican 56%
$200,000 or more (8%) Democrat 34%, Republican 64%

By your own interpretation, yes.

The only thing your data clearly shows is that the more money someone makes, the more likely they are to vote republican.

[JohnStOnge]

By your own interpretation, yes.

The only thing your data clearly shows is that the more money someone makes, the more likely they are to vote republican.

No, because in my interpretation I would look at all three of the correlates and also at more than just the top educational attainment level. Remember, IQ is also positively correlated with income and there is a very clear, consistent trend towards proportion voting Republican rising as income level rose. Taken alone, showing "...he more money someone makes, the more likely they are to vote republican" leads one in the direction of thinking that those voting Republican tended to have higher IQs than those voting Democrat did.

Then there is the race thing. Asians are believed to have the highest average IQ and they did vote majority Democrat. However, the difference in averages between Asian and whites is only 3 points and only about 2% of voters were Asian while about 77% were white. And the two groups that would really tend to drag the average down, Latinos and Blacks, both voted in overwhelming majorities for Democrats.

Plus there's the fact that, with the exception of the turn at the highest educational attainment level, proportion voting Republican went up as educational attainment level went up. If one were just to take a look at the overall correlation the correlation between educational attainment level and likelihood that a randomly selected voter would be Republican would be positive (i.e., overall, higher educational attainment level means higher likelihood of voting Republcian).

Something I didn't mention is that there are those who argue that the correlation between "success" and IQ is higher than that between educational attainment and IQ. I read a book by Richard Hernstein making that case back during the 1980s. But "success" was not defined purely in terms of income.

Either way we can't know for sure. The only way we could know is if somebody included an IQ test with exit polls. You can be wrong trying to infer stuff in this way. For instance: There is a positive correlation between States voting majority Democrat and average incomes of States. In other words, States characterized by higher per capita incomes tend to be more likely to vote majority Democrat.

But if you were to conclude on that basis that likelihood of voting Democrat goes up as income goes up you would be wrong. We know that because exit polling gets directly to income and we can see that, in fact, the opposite is the case. As income goes up, likelihood of voting Democrat goes down.

Still, I think grouping people by income, educational attainment level, and race is probably more precise than grouping them by State is. And if I were to have to bet, I'd bet that the average IQ of those who voted Republican is higher but a modest majority of those above something like 120 or so voted Democrat (because of the twist at the top of the educational attainment level groupings). And a substantial majority of those below 85 or so also voted Democrat.

Overall, I'd expect the distribution of IQ scores among those who voted Republican to be higher than that of those who voted Democrat. By that I mean that if you were to go up each distribution and look at the IQ at each percentile value (1st percentile, 2nd percentile, 3rd percentile....and so on), the IQ value corresponding for each percentile would be higher for Republican voters than it would be for Democratic voters. If it ever got to the point where the IQ for Democratic voters would be higher I think it'd only be when one got to above the 90th percentile of each distribution. And I think probably above the 95th percentile. Then I don't think there would be much difference in the IQ levels either. No great advantage, if any, for those who voted Democrat.

Just a guess but a reasonable one.

[BlueHen86]

By your own interpretation, yes.

The only thing your data clearly shows is that the more money someone makes, the more likely they are to vote republican.

No, because in my interpretation I would look at all three of the correlates and also at more than just the top educational attainment level. Remember, IQ is also positively correlated with income and there is a very clear, consistent trend towards proportion voting Republican rising as income level rose. Taken alone, showing "...he more money someone makes, the more likely they are to vote republican" leads one in the direction of thinking that those voting Republican tended to have higher IQs than those voting Democrat did.

Then there is the race thing. Asians are believed to have the highest average IQ and they did vote majority Democrat. However, the difference in averages between Asian and whites is only 3 points and only about 2% of voters were Asian while about 77% were white. And the two groups that would really tend to drag the average down, Latinos and Blacks, both voted in overwhelming majorities for Democrats.

Plus there's the fact that, with the exception of the turn at the highest educational attainment level, proportion voting Republican went up as educational attainment level went up. If one were just to take a look at the overall correlation the correlation between educational attainment level and likelihood that a randomly selected voter would be Republican would be positive (i.e., overall, higher educational attainment level means higher likelihood of voting Republcian).

Something I didn't mention is that there are those who argue that the correlation between "success" and IQ is higher than that between educational attainment and IQ. I read a book by Richard Hernstein making that case back during the 1980s. But "success" was not defined purely in terms of income.

Either way we can't know for sure. The only way we could know is if somebody included an IQ test with exit polls. You can be wrong trying to infer stuff in this way. For instance: There is a positive correlation between States voting majority Democrat and average incomes of States. In other words, States characterized by higher per capita incomes tend to be more likely to vote majority Democrat.

But if you were to conclude on that basis that likelihood of voting Democrat goes up as income goes up you would be wrong. We know that because exit polling gets directly to income and we can see that, in fact, the opposite is the case. As income goes up, likelihood of voting Democrat goes down.

Still, I think grouping people by income, educational attainment level, and race is probably more precise than grouping them by State is. And if I were to have to bet, I'd bet that the average IQ of those who voted Republican is higher but a modest majority of those above something like 120 or so voted Democrat (because of the twist at the top of the educational attainment level groupings). And a substantial majority of those below 85 or so also voted Democrat.

Overall, I'd expect the distribution of IQ scores among those who voted Republican to be higher than that of those who voted Democrat. By that I mean that if you were to go up each distribution and look at the IQ at each percentile value (1st percentile, 2nd percentile, 3rd percentile....and so on), the IQ value corresponding for each percentile would be higher for Republican voters than it would be for Democratic voters. If it ever got to the point where the IQ for Democratic voters would be higher I think it'd only be when one got to above the 90th percentile of each distribution. And I think probably above the 95th percentile. Then I don't think there would be much difference in the IQ levels either. No great advantage, if any, for those who voted Democrat.

Just a guess but a reasonable one.

IQ is positively correlated with educational attainment level (higher education level, higher IQ)

With those correlations in mind, take a look at the exit polling estimates below for the 2010 election and comment on whether or not you REALLY think the IQ distribution of those who voted Democrat was higher (the percentage of voters polled belonging to each group in parenthesis):


EDUCATION

Did not finish high school (3%) Democrat 57%, Republican 36%
High school graduate (17%) Democrat 46%, Republican 52%
Some college (28%) Democrat 43%, Republican 53%
College graduate (30%) Democrat 40%, Republican 58%
Post graduate (21%) Democrat 53%, Republican 45%

Let's try this again, by your own interpretation, yes.

Maybe you should find a different study that better suits your desired results.

[Skjellyfetti]

Neither side is smarter.

There are opposing views on governing that have been with us since the founding of the country (federalists vs. anti-federalists). Neither side is smarter and neither side is wholly right and the other wrong.

It's fun to pick out the dumbasses on both sides... fat tea-partiers waving misinformed signs in the air and ignorant occupy wall streeters waving equally dumb sides in the air. But, neither political philosophy is inherently dumb and neither is inherently smarter.

[mainejeff]

Neither side is smarter.

There are opposing views on governing that have been with us since the founding of the country (federalists vs. anti-federalists). Neither side is smarter and neither side is wholly right and the other wrong.

It's fun to pick out the dumbasses on both sides... fat tea-partiers waving misinformed signs in the air and ignorant occupy wall streeters waving equally dumb sides in the air. But, neither political philosophy is inherently dumb and neither is inherently smarter.

Thanks for raining on St. Wronge's parade.......

[JohnStOnge]

Let's try this again, by your own interpretation, yes.

No, because my interpretation includes consideration of things other than educational attainment level. I am also looking at the income and racial demographics. All three suggest a higher average IQ among Republican voters. The educational attainment level twist at the top, taken on its own, suggests that more in the highest IQ group vote Democrat. But the income group categorizations suggests otherwise.

There's also the matter of what is meant by "higher distribution." All three of the categorizations strongly suggest that the lowest end IQ voters voted disproportionately Democrat. WAY disproportionately Democrat. Even if there is a twist at the very top towards a modest advantage for Democrats as suggested by the educational attainment category, the totality of the information suggests a generally higher IQ distribution among Republican voters. Again, with "suggest" being just that. As I said, we'd have to get them to just measure IQ among voters during exit polling to know.

Anyway, to conclude that the twist at the top of in the educational attainment category means those who voted Democrat likely had a higher IQ distribution is picking one piece of the information provided while ignoring everything else that suggests the opposite. And most of the information does suggest the opposite.

[mainejeff]

Let's try this again, by your own interpretation, yes.

No, because my interpretation includes consideration of things other than educational attainment level. I am also looking at the income and racial demographics. All three suggest a higher average IQ among Republican voters. The educational attainment level twist at the top, taken on its own, suggests that more in the highest IQ group vote Democrat. But the income group categorizations suggests otherwise.

There's also the matter of what is meant by "higher distribution." All three of the categorizations strongly suggest that the lowest end IQ voters voted disproportionately Democrat. WAY disproportionately Democrat. Even if there is a twist at the very top towards a modest advantage for Democrats as suggested by the educational attainment category, the totality of the information suggests a generally higher IQ distribution among Republican voters. Again, with "suggest" being just that. As I said, we'd have to get them to just measure IQ among voters during exit polling to know.

Anyway, to conclude that the twist at the top of in the educational attainment category means those who voted Democrat likely had a higher IQ distribution is picking one piece of the information provided while ignoring everything else that suggests the opposite. And most of the information does suggest the opposite.

The huge % of Republicans that believe in the super natural and the resulting effect of that on humanity cancels out any "book education" advantage that they might have.

[BlueHen86]

Let's try this again, by your own interpretation, yes.

Blah, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah, blah blah blah blah, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Blah's blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah "blah blah." Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. BLAH blah blah. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Blah, blah "blah" blah blah Blah. Blah blah blah, blah'd blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Blah, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

FIFY.

[BlueHen86]

Neither side is smarter.

There are opposing views on governing that have been with us since the founding of the country (federalists vs. anti-federalists). Neither side is smarter and neither side is wholly right and the other wrong.

It's fun to pick out the dumbasses on both sides... fat tea-partiers waving misinformed signs in the air and ignorant occupy wall streeters waving equally dumb sides in the air. But, neither political philosophy is inherently dumb and neither is inherently smarter.

Of course you are right, but JSO votes republican and he thinks he's smarter than every one else. He so smart that when he finds numbers that don't match up with view on how things are, he ignores the inconvenient part and runs with it anyway.

[Ivytalk]

Neither side is smarter.

There are opposing views on governing that have been with us since the founding of the country (federalists vs. anti-federalists). Neither side is smarter and neither side is wholly right and the other wrong.

It's fun to pick out the dumbasses on both sides... fat tea-partiers waving misinformed signs in the air and ignorant occupy wall streeters waving equally dumb sides in the air. But, neither political philosophy is inherently dumb and neither is inherently smarter.

A rare burst of candor from JellyBelly!

[Chizzang]

What happens to the numbers when you remove the huge disenfranchised under educated under performing Black Population from this poll..? The abandon droves change the education numbers dramatically


Go here:
CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF RACE & EQUITY IN EDUCATION

-In 2010 only 46% of black males graduated from High School
-In 2010 4% of college students were Black Males
-Of that 4% some 75% are on Athletic Scholarship
-Leaving approximately 1% of the college population as a black male non-athlete

And I'm not even talking about our Hispanic Male population - which has similar numbers
http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/p20-560.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[D1B]

I think there's more to it than that...

I have no statistics to back this up, but in my observation of life I've come to the opinion that those who are the least secure- generally speaking- vote democrat.

When I speak of less secure I mean the generationally poor, single women, older people who didn't plan for retirement properly, those who squandered educational opportunities and have underachieved financially, those who participate in alternative lifestyles, etc. To me that is the typical democrat voter... somebody who is for whatever reason unwilling (which causes them to be unable) to take advantage of the tremendous opportunity our society has offered us and wants the government to intervene on their behalf.

I think if you looked at the people who grasp the american dream (solid education, solid career, nuclear family, judeo-christian values) and take advantage of the tremendous opportunities we all have in general they'll overwhelmingly vote GOP or libertarian.

There's no more secure people than the republican voter base - poor, uneducated, racist white automatons who will will gladly do (vote) whatever some slick businesman or preacher tells them. They're comically unhealthy, smoke a carton of Basic Menthols a day, dream about killing niggers and spend all of their disposable income on velvet Elvis paintings, chicken fried steak, Meth, booze and lottery tickets. They rant on about about niggers on welfare, yet every single member of their family is on SSI disability for diabetes or emphysema, or some fraud of an injury they faked at the local widget plant.These ex KKKlan members spend their unemployed lives stumping for fellow racist shitbags like Ryan or Romney or Baldy in Teabagger rallies predominantly staged in the South, otherwise known as the Asshole of the World.

[JohnStOnge]

He so smart that when he finds numbers that don't match up with view on how things are, he ignores the inconvenient part and runs with it anyway.

That's called including all of the information seen as relevant instead of cherry picking to include only information that supports the proposition. I did not "ignore" the information. I interpreted in the context of other information. And I did not rule out the possibility that if you were to look just at some reasonable categorization of something like the top 5% of IQ people you might find that a modest majority among that group voted for Democrats.

With all due respect, you are the one who ignored information by suggesting that one piece...the fact that a modest majority of those who had post grad education voted Democrat...is the entire picture.

The distributions of IQs among voters who voted for each party include a whole lot more elements than just the top 5%. They also include the bottom 5%, the bottom 10%, and so on.

I'll put it this way: The exit polling results suggest that, if you were to randomly select a person who voted Democrat in that election and a person who voted Republican in it, the odds are that the randomly selected Republican voter would have a higher IQ. To put it bluntly: The results suggest that the party that has the advantage among "stupid people" is the Democratic party.

[Ivytalk]

I think there's more to it than that...

I have no statistics to back this up, but in my observation of life I've come to the opinion that those who are the least secure- generally speaking- vote democrat.

When I speak of less secure I mean the generationally poor, single women, older people who didn't plan for retirement properly, those who squandered educational opportunities and have underachieved financially, those who participate in alternative lifestyles, etc. To me that is the typical democrat voter... somebody who is for whatever reason unwilling (which causes them to be unable) to take advantage of the tremendous opportunity our society has offered us and wants the government to intervene on their behalf.

I think if you looked at the people who grasp the american dream (solid education, solid career, nuclear family, judeo-christian values) and take advantage of the tremendous opportunities we all have in general they'll overwhelmingly vote GOP or libertarian.[/
There's no more secure people than the republican voter base - poor, uneducated, racist white automatons who will will gladly do (vote) whatever some slick businesman or preacher tells them. They're comically unhealthy, smoke a carton of Basic Menthols a day, dream about killing niggers and spend all of their disposable income on velvet Elvis paintings, chicken fried steak, Meth, booze and lottery tickets. They rant on about about niggers on welfare, yet every single member of their family is on SSI disability for diabetes or emphysema, or some fraud of an injury they faked at the local widget plant.These ex KKKlan members spend their unemployed lives stumping for fellow racist shitbags like
Ryan or Romney or Baldy in Teabagger rallies predominantly staged in the South, otherwise known as the Asshole of the World.

Mister Progressive D1B drops the N- bomb twice in one post, and no one will call the hypocritical quim-swilling cockbreath on it.

[D1B]

Mister Progressive D1B shows his respect for African Americans by dropping the N-bomb twice in one post. But he can do it because he's an unenlightened liberal and no one will call the cockbreath on it.
Talk about double standards.
There's no more secure people than the republican voter base - poor, uneducated, racist white automatons who will will gladly do (vote) whatever some slick businesman or preacher tells them. They're comically unhealthy, smoke a carton of Basic Menthols a day, dream about killing niggers and spend all of their disposable income on velvet Elvis paintings, chicken fried steak, Meth, booze and lottery tickets. They rant on about about niggers on welfare, yet every single member of their family is on SSI disability for diabetes or emphysema, or some fraud of an injury they faked at the local widget plant.These ex KKKlan members spend their unemployed lives stumping for fellow racist shitbags like Ryan or Romney or Baldy in Teabagger rallies predominantly staged in the South, otherwise known as the Asshole of the World.

Fix your post, cockbreath. Black folk say nigger all the fucking time. Pwople like you do not refer to black people as "black people", YOU refer to them as niggers. I use your terminology, you piece of shit elitist racist fuck wad.

[Ivytalk]

Fix your post, cockbreath. Black folk say nigger all the **** time. When people like you do not refer to black people as "black people", YOU refer to them as niggers. I use your terminology, you piece of **** elitist racist **** wad.

Fuck you and the ex-wife who dumped you, you pathetic narcissist.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I think there's more to it than that...

I have no statistics to back this up, but in my observation of life I've come to the opinion that those who are the least secure- generally speaking- vote democrat.

When I speak of less secure I mean the generationally poor, single women, older people who didn't plan for retirement properly, those who squandered educational opportunities and have underachieved financially, those who participate in alternative lifestyles, etc. To me that is the typical democrat voter... somebody who is for whatever reason unwilling (which causes them to be unable) to take advantage of the tremendous opportunity our society has offered us and wants the government to intervene on their behalf.

I think if you looked at the people who grasp the american dream (solid education, solid career, nuclear family, judeo-christian values) and take advantage of the tremendous opportunities we all have in general they'll overwhelmingly vote GOP or libertarian.

There's no more secure people than the republican voter base - poor, uneducated, racist white automatons who will will gladly do (vote) whatever some slick businesman or preacher tells them. They're comically unhealthy, smoke a carton of Basic Menthols a day, dream about killing niggers and spend all of their disposable income on velvet Elvis paintings, chicken fried steak, Meth, booze and lottery tickets. They rant on about about niggers on welfare, yet every single member of their family is on SSI disability for diabetes or emphysema, or some fraud of an injury they faked at the local widget plant.These ex KKKlan members spend their unemployed lives stumping for fellow racist shitbags like Ryan or Romney or Baldy in Teabagger rallies predominantly staged in the South, otherwise known as the Asshole of the World.

You actually believe this stuff?

[mainejeff]

Fix your post, cockbreath. Black folk say nigger all the **** time. When people like you do not refer to black people as "black people", YOU refer to them as niggers. I use your terminology, you piece of **** elitist racist **** wad.

**** you and the ex-wife who dumped you, you pathetic narcissist.

That's not very nice.

[D1B]

Fix your post, cockbreath. Black folk say nigger all the **** time. When people like you do not refer to black people as "black people", YOU refer to them as niggers. I use your terminology, you piece of **** elitist racist **** wad.

Fuck you and the ex-wife who dumped you, you pathetic narcissist.

No one dumped me you elitest, racist homophobe lame fuck with no game who never gets any action. You and your enlarged prostate and bad fucking breath can go fuck yourselves.

[Grizalltheway]

[Ivytalk]

**** you and the ex-wife who dumped you, you pathetic narcissist.

No one dumped me you elitest, racist homophobe lame **** with no game who never gets any action. You and your enlarged prostate and bad **** breath can go **** yourselves.

At least I have a prostate, you scum-sucking licker of other people's grundles.