Paul Ryan - doesn't make any sense

[dbackjon]

Friday, August 24
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 46, Romney 46 Tie
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 45, Romney 46 Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 47, Romney 47 Tie
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Keating (D) Obama 48, Romney 44 Obama +4
Missouri: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 46, Obama 47 Obama +1
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine Rasmussen Reports Kaine 45, Allen 45 Tie
President Obama Job Approval CNN/Opinion Research Approve 50, Disapprove 47 Approve +3
President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 47, Disapprove 47 Tie
President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 48, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +3


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So you are just looking at the Rasmussen and hanging your hopes on a Republican-leaning poll. You betcha!

And how many of those polls are oversampling Donks between 5% and 12%?

You can cry all you want, but it has been proven that Rasmussen is the most accurate poll out there.

Really? That is news to most everyone...

[kalm]

Friday, August 24
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 46, Romney 46 Tie
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 45, Romney 46 Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 47, Romney 47 Tie
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Keating (D) Obama 48, Romney 44 Obama +4
Missouri: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 46, Obama 47 Obama +1
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine Rasmussen Reports Kaine 45, Allen 45 Tie
President Obama Job Approval CNN/Opinion Research Approve 50, Disapprove 47 Approve +3
President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 47, Disapprove 47 Tie
President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 48, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +3


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So you are just looking at the Rasmussen and hanging your hopes on a Republican-leaning poll. You betcha!

And how many of those polls are oversampling Donks between 5% and 12%?

You can cry all you want, but it has been proven that Rasmussen is the most accurate poll out there.

I heard they were really accurate during one election.

[BlueHen86]

Panicking Donks are in full smear mode.

It has nothing to do with panic, they'd be smearing him no matter what.

[BlueHen86]

Friday, August 24
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Tracking Obama 46, Romney 46 Tie
General Election: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Tracking Obama 45, Romney 46 Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 47, Romney 47 Tie
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Keating (D) Obama 48, Romney 44 Obama +4
Missouri: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 46, Obama 47 Obama +1
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine Rasmussen Reports Kaine 45, Allen 45 Tie
President Obama Job Approval CNN/Opinion Research Approve 50, Disapprove 47 Approve +3
President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 47, Disapprove 47 Tie
President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 48, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +3


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So you are just looking at the Rasmussen and hanging your hopes on a Republican-leaning poll. You betcha!

And how many of those polls are oversampling Donks between 5% and 12%?

You can cry all you want, but it has been proven that Rasmussen is the most accurate poll out there.

I'm not so sure about that, there are some legit questions about his methods. Rasmussen's prowess may be up for debate, but it has not been proven.

[Baldy]

And how many of those polls are oversampling Donks between 5% and 12%?

You can cry all you want, but it has been proven that Rasmussen is the most accurate poll out there.

Really? That is news to most everyone...

You're not "most everyone".

Slate, The Wall Street Journal, Politico, Talking Points Memo, Democratic Strategist, and many others have stated, very begrudgingly for the four leftist websites I named, that Rasmussen has been the most accurate polling firm for every election since the presidential election of 2004.

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_an ... otape.html
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB ... 71115.html
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm? ... 439331DA11
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009 ... ything.php
http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/ ... _rasmu.php

Rasmussen was the first to show that Christie would beat Corzine in New Jersey. Rasmussen was the first to show that Scott Brown was going to take Martha Coakley in Massachusetts special Senate election. Rasmussen was within 1% point in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. Through his "Generic Congressional" poll, Rasmussen saw the landslide of 2010 coming as early as 2009. Rasmussen data predicted that the Republicans would gain 62 seats in the house in 2010 (they gained 63). Rasmussen was the first to show that Obama's approval ratings were falling in the March of 2009, long before anyone else.

Time and time again the results have proven that Rasmussen is, by far, the most accurate pollster out there.

[JohnStOnge]

Only one panicking are the conks who got no boost from Ryan, and now are cringing because Ryan = Akin, and are wondering if they are gettting legitimately raped, or some other Ryan-Akin definition

They probably did get a boost from Ryan. Recall that during the week before his selection there was a lot of news about Obama surging ahead in the polls. Now there's a lot of news about things changing.

Whether that matters in the end remains to be seen. But I think they did get a boost. And I say that even though I didn't expect it to happen. I thought that the fact that Ryan is willing to go after Medicare, etc., would mean a distinct downturn for Romney in the polls. But that didn't happen. Instead, it looks like there was an uptic for Romney in the polls.

[JohnStOnge]

Here is an example of what I'm talking about. Check out this article from August 10:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08 ... ort-slips/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And contrast it to these more recent articles:

http://www.examiner.com/article/fox-new ... mney-leads" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/2 ... 28855.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now, part of it is the difference between looking at registered voters and looking at likely voters. But I also think Romney's position has improved. At least for now.

[D1B]

Really? That is news to most everyone...

You're not "most everyone".

Slate, The Wall Street Journal, Politico, Talking Points Memo, Democratic Strategist, and many others have stated, very begrudgingly for the four leftist websites I named, that Rasmussen has been the most accurate polling firm for every election since the presidential election of 2004.

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_an ... otape.html
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB ... 71115.html
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm? ... 439331DA11
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009 ... ything.php
http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/ ... _rasmu.php

Rasmussen was the first to show that Christie would beat Corzine in New Jersey. Rasmussen was the first to show that Scott Brown was going to take Martha Coakley in Massachusetts special Senate election. Rasmussen was within 1% point in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. Through his "Generic Congressional" poll, Rasmussen saw the landslide of 2010 coming as early as 2009. Rasmussen data predicted that the Republicans would gain 62 seats in the house in 2010 (they gained 63). Rasmussen was the first to show that Obama's approval ratings were falling in the March of 2009, long before anyone else.

Time and time again the results have proven that Rasmussen is, by far, the most accurate pollster out there.

Baldy,

You ever get out of the house for anything? Check this out:



Conks

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

His ideas on the budget do make sense. Gov has to make some hard choices in reducing the spending on entitlements for one and in many other areas as well.

Does there need to be tax increases? Probably some IMO. Pre-Bush tax levels would be fine IMO but keep some taxes increases out like the decrease in child tax credit and inheritance taxes.

Being a conservative (fiscal), I wouldn't scream and shout if I had to pay alittle more to reduce this deficeit but the gov needs to also cut their massive spending habits. Look at our national budget now....entitlements and defense are the 2 biggest money grabs.

In fiscal year 2011 our national budget was:

Social Security: 20%
Medicaid/Medicare: 23%
Defense: 19%
Discretionary: 18%
Other Mandatory: 13%
Interest: 6%

43% of our national budget goes to SS and Medicare/Medicaid.....wow!

Hey Congress.......Make some tough choices and balance our budget and get this debt in order.

[Baldy]

Baldy,

You ever get out of the house for anything? Check this out:



Conks

Says the member with almost 8,000 more posts than I have?

[BlueHen86]

Really? That is news to most everyone...

You're not "most everyone".

Slate, The Wall Street Journal, Politico, Talking Points Memo, Democratic Strategist, and many others have stated, very begrudgingly for the four leftist websites I named, that Rasmussen has been the most accurate polling firm for every election since the presidential election of 2004.

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_an ... otape.html
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB ... 71115.html
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm? ... 439331DA11
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009 ... ything.php
http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/ ... _rasmu.php

Rasmussen was the first to show that Christie would beat Corzine in New Jersey. Rasmussen was the first to show that Scott Brown was going to take Martha Coakley in Massachusetts special Senate election. Rasmussen was within 1% point in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. Through his "Generic Congressional" poll, Rasmussen saw the landslide of 2010 coming as early as 2009. Rasmussen data predicted that the Republicans would gain 62 seats in the house in 2010 (they gained 63). Rasmussen was the first to show that Obama's approval ratings were falling in the March of 2009, long before anyone else.

Time and time again the results have proven that Rasmussen is, by far, the most accurate pollster out there.

Here is an article from the NYT in 2010 discussing Rasmussen's methods and results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... -strongly/

[D1B]

Baldy,

You ever get out of the house for anything? Check this out:



Conks

Says the member with almost 8,000 more posts than I have?

Well played, my friend.

I'll regroup here in Detroit and will be back, stronger, in DC.

[Baldy]

You're not "most everyone".

Slate, The Wall Street Journal, Politico, Talking Points Memo, Democratic Strategist, and many others have stated, very begrudgingly for the four leftist websites I named, that Rasmussen has been the most accurate polling firm for every election since the presidential election of 2004.

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_an ... otape.html
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB ... 71115.html
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm? ... 439331DA11
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009 ... ything.php
http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/ ... _rasmu.php

Rasmussen was the first to show that Christie would beat Corzine in New Jersey. Rasmussen was the first to show that Scott Brown was going to take Martha Coakley in Massachusetts special Senate election. Rasmussen was within 1% point in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. Through his "Generic Congressional" poll, Rasmussen saw the landslide of 2010 coming as early as 2009. Rasmussen data predicted that the Republicans would gain 62 seats in the house in 2010 (they gained 63). Rasmussen was the first to show that Obama's approval ratings were falling in the March of 2009, long before anyone else.

Time and time again the results have proven that Rasmussen is, by far, the most accurate pollster out there.

Here is an article from the NYT in 2010 discussing Rasmussen's methods and results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... -strongly/

An article? More like a blog post from a far left wing ideologue. It's not a secret that Nate Silver absolutely hates Rasmussen. It doesn't matter, the results speak for themselves.

[Baldy]

Says the member with almost 8,000 more posts than I have?

Well played, my friend.

I'll regroup here in Detroit and will be back, stronger, in DC.

I have no doubt, I'll be ready.

[BlueHen86]

Here is an article from the NYT in 2010 discussing Rasmussen's methods and results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... -strongly/

An article? More like a blog post from a far left wing ideologue. It's not a secret that Nate Silver absolutely hates Rasmussen. It doesn't matter, the results speak for themselves.

I respect Rasmussen, I just take issue with the word "proven". There are Rasmussen dissenters out there. Anytime you are dealing with statistics and how to manipulate statistics it's hard to end with the word "proven".

[Baldy]

An article? More like a blog post from a far left wing ideologue. It's not a secret that Nate Silver absolutely hates Rasmussen. It doesn't matter, the results speak for themselves.

I respect Rasmussen, I just take issue with the word "proven". There are Rasmussen dissenters out there. Anytime you are dealing with statistics and how to manipulate statistics it's hard to end with the word "proven".

I understand and I admit that "proven" was probably too strong of a word, but it is a statistical fact that Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2004 and 2008 by getting both elections right within 1% and predicting the 2010 takeover of the HOR within 1 seat.

[BlueHen86]

I respect Rasmussen, I just take issue with the word "proven". There are Rasmussen dissenters out there. Anytime you are dealing with statistics and how to manipulate statistics it's hard to end with the word "proven".

I understand and I admit that "proven" was probably too strong of a word, but it is a statistical fact that Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2004 and 2008 by getting both elections right within 1% and predicting the 2010 takeover of the HOR within 1 seat.

Agreed.

[JohnStOnge]

Here is an article from the NYT in 2010 discussing Rasmussen's methods and results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... -strongly/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This following statement from the article kind of neuters everything else that's in it:

Rasmussen’s polls — after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that year’s Presidential race — nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year.

Basically what that's saying is that Rasumssen's polls did well relative to other polls in some years but not in others. Apparently they didn't do well in 2000, did well in 2004 and 2006, and did about average in 2008.

That is what one would expect. What they're saying is that there is no consistent pattern over the years of Rasmussen polls doing poorly relative to others. They're just saying that for one year, 2010, they were on the "low" side.