2012 FCS teams added to simulation and Predictor

[ebemiss]

With the help of poster Keeper and his returning FCS starters list. I've adjusted last years rankings and teams and I've added 2012 FCS and FBS teams to simulation I've created. Here's a sample game

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/i ... magic=3002" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

hit play again to get a different result each time or select new teams to try a different match up.

For some reason the 100 game match up isn't loading that fast (that gives a better projection for an upcoming game) but if you go here and select ncaa football 2012, you can get a prediction for any upcoming game using my single game predictor.

http://www.edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predictor" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

These teams will continue to get updated throughout the season, I just thought people would enjoy messing around with them now.

I'd like to add every FCS game this season to my predictor calendar (link below) so if you click a date you'll get a list of every game on that day. I'm still searching for a full FCS composite schedule, by date, if anyone has a link please post it. I'd have to convert to excel to get it to work, but finding it is hard enough right now.

You'll see if you go to a Saturday in September, pick the date and hit go, you'll get all the D1 games that day. I'd like to do the same with the FCS schedule.

http://www.edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predcal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Users can still set up the full season schedule, for their team, using the sim by going here:

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/i ... &Itemid=74" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Thanks ebe, you do great work!

[ebemiss]

Thanks ebe, you do great work!

Thanks, I appreciate it.

[Brock Landers]

Montana (2012) 37 Appalachian St. (2012) 34

Woo!

[Brock Landers]

Montana (2012) 37@ Appalachian St. (2012) 34
Montana (2012) 14 @ Appalachian St. (2012) 17
Montana (2012) 25 @ Appalachian St. (2012) 16
Montana (2012) 17 @ Appalachian St. (2012) 19
Montana (2012) 34 @ Appalachian St. (2012) 39
Montana (2012) 29 @ Appalachian St. (2012) 15
Montana (2012) 16 @ Appalachian St. (2012) 18
Montana (2012) 31 @ Appalachian St. (2012) 22
Montana (2012) 24 @ Appalachian St. (2012) 26
Montana (2012) 42 @ Appalachian St. (2012) 44

[Brock Landers]

South Dakota (2012) 15 Montana (2012) 27
Montana (2012) 15 Appalachian St. (2012) 29
Liberty (2012) 23 Montana (2012) 26
Northern Arizona (2012) 23 Montana (2012) 42
Montana (2012) 22 Eastern Wash. (2012) 15

And now it appears to be timing out

[ebemiss]

Ok I now have copy of the FCS schedule in excel. Is there a way to attach it? If not and anyone wants it pm me.

Also I've uploaded that schedule to use for 2012 weekly predictions here:

http://www.edbemiss.com/index.php?option=com_predcal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you go to September 8 (Saturday) click the date then hit go...you'll see projections for all the games on that date.

The projections will get more accurate as more games and data is available. Then I'll be able to adjust each team based on 2012 results on the field.

[SuperHornet]

Liberty (2012) 23 Montana (2012) 26

The Griz extremists aren't going to like THAT score very much....

[SuperHornet]

This makes no sense....


Sacramento St. (2012) 32 @ New Mexico St. (2012) 42
Sacramento St. (2012) 20 @ Colorado (2012) 18
Northern Colorado (2012) 28 @ Sacramento St. (2012) 33
North Dakota (2012) 14 @ Sacramento St. (2012) 24
Sacramento St. (2012) 30 @ Idaho St. (2012) 16
Sacramento St. (2012) 43 @ Southern Utah (2012) 37
Weber St. (2012) 25 @ Sacramento St. (2012) 45
Sacramento St. (2012) @ 16 @ Eastern Wash. (2012) 41
Cal Poly (2012) 35 @ Sacramento St. (2012) 23
Montana St. (2012) 21 @ Sacramento St. (2012) 29
Sacramento St. (2012) 33 @ UC Davis (2012) 51

First, finishing 7-4, even if 7-win teams are accepted into the playoffs this year, it is doubtful that one going 1-3 down the stretch would go, even WITH a FBS win. Additionally, given the teams we beat early, unless there's an injury problem, I don't see 1-3 to end the season, partcularly against UCFE.

[SuperHornet]

Well, I tried the playoff thing. Just out of the air, I picked Montana, Wofford, and App as likely teams we would face at each level. I went too quickly, and failed to account for the likelihood that at 7-4, Sac would be on the road even in the first round.

Didn't matter. Montana won 17-14, so we didn't even get to Wofford or App.

[Brock Landers]

The same Davis school that has beaten you twice in a row and has the game at home?

And three other opponents you've gone 1-14 against over the last 5 meetings?

SH do you ever realize how out of touch you are?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

EWU: 7-4

8/30 @ Idaho: EWU wins 20-3 ....
9/8 @ Wazzu: Cougs win 28-20 .... respectable.
9/22 @ WSU: EWU wins 42-28 .... sounds about right against Sears' D.
9/29 vs. UM: EWU wins 32-27 .... another close battle.
10/6 vs. UND: EWU wins 19-14 .... not gonna be that close.
10/13 @ MSU: MSU wins 19-17 .... should be a close match, MSU is at home.
10/20 vs. SAC: SAC wins 28-26 .... yeah, we'll see.
10/27 @ SUU: SUU wins 34-19 .... late season slide? Very atypical for EWU.
11/3 vs. CP: EWU wins 30-16 .... still playoff eligible.
11/10 vs. UCD: EWU wins 40-22 .... sounds about right.
11/17 @ PSU: EWU wins 37-27 .... and into the playoffs at 7-4.

[SuperHornet]

Uh, Brock....

1. We beat UM last year. Do you seriously think that UCFE is better than UM?

2. While I can't speak to 2010, 2011 was a matter of injuries near the end of the year. Both were within four points, anyway. We can get the job done. In addition, that's a wash because we beat them twice in a row just before that....

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 48 of 100 matchups against Idaho(2012)
Washington St.(2012) wins 97 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 63 of 100 matchups against Weber St.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 51 of 100 matchups against Montana(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 83 of 100 matchups against North Dakota(2012)
Montana St.(2012) wins 52 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 86 of 100 matchups against Sacramento St.(2012)
Southern Utah(2012) wins 59 of 100 matchups against Eastern Wash.(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 82 of 100 matchups against Cal Poly(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 80 of 100 matchups against UC Davis(2012)
Eastern Wash.(2012) wins 86 of 100 matchups against Portland St.(2012)


So I'd say between 5-6 and 10-1, with 8-3 or 7-4 most likely.

[Mvemjsunpx]

The 100-game matchups are creating a lot of blank single-game results, throwing off the averages.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

The 100-game matchups are creating a lot of blank single-game results, throwing off the averages.

Yeah, it was glitching like that on me too for a little while. I waited a bit and came back to it.

[ebemiss]

The 100-game matchups are creating a lot of blank single-game results, throwing off the averages.

Yeah, it was glitching like that on me too for a little while. I waited a bit and came back to it.

Guys, it's not running right. I've been in touch with my programmer and he's going to look at it this weekend. For a power ranking projection for an upcoming game try the predictor or calender I listed above.

[andy7171]

Sweet! 3-0 heading into LSU with a win over Kent State!

[andy7171]

ODU - 35
TU - 35

Oh shit!

[Brock Landers]

Uh, Brock....

1. We beat UM last year. Do you seriously think that UCFE is better than UM?

2. While I can't speak to 2010, 2011 was a matter of injuries near the end of the year. Both were within four points, anyway. We can get the job done. In addition, that's a wash because we beat them twice in a row just before that....

Transitive property fail. I guess Sac was better than MSU and UNI, and Humbolt State beat Davis so I guess that makes them better than Sac too

[Brock Landers]

South Dakota (2012) 15 Montana (2012) 27
Montana (2012) 15 Appalachian St. (2012) 29
Liberty (2012) 23 Montana (2012) 26
Northern Arizona (2012) 23 Montana (2012) 42
Montana (2012) 22 Eastern Wash. (2012) 15

And now it appears to be timing out

Southern Utah (2012) 21 Montana (2012) 25

Gah, timing out/not returning results again

[Brock Landers]

South Dakota (2012) 15 Montana (2012) 27
Montana (2012) 15 Appalachian St. (2012) 29
Liberty (2012) 23 Montana (2012) 26
Northern Arizona (2012) 23 Montana (2012) 42
Montana (2012) 22 Eastern Wash. (2012) 15
Montana (2012) 31 Northern Colorado (2012) 9
Southern Utah (2012) 21 Montana (2012) 25
Montana (2012) 20 North Dakota (2012) 25
Idaho St. (2012) 3 Montana (2012) 35
Montana (2012) 36 Weber St. (2012) 28
Montana St. (2012) 16 Montana (2012) 26

9-2 (7-1)

[Mvemjsunpx]

Montana 100-game prediction scores (% chance of winning in italics)


South Dakota 20-30 Montana (84%)
Montana 24-26 App. State (43%)
Liberty 24-29 Montana (69%)
NAU 20-31 Montana (87%)
Montana 26-25 EWU (58%)
Montana 40-16 Northern Colorado (100% )
Southern Utah 23-32 Montana (85%)
Montana 27-17 North Dakota (88%)
Idaho St. 13-42 Montana (100% )
Montana 28-21 Weber (80%)
Montana St. 23-29 Montana (77%)


Adding up the percentages leads to a record of approximately 9-2, but the Griz are favored in 10 out of 11 games.

[GoAgs72]

We have a greater chance beating Montana State than Sac State??? I don't think so. On the other hand we are not beating Sac State 51-33. We haven't scored 51 points in years.

[ebemiss]

100 game match up seems to be loading much faster.

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/i ... magic=3003" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;