2 of the biggest factors going into the price of oil are current supply and demand and the anticipated future supply vs demand.
Current domestic oil output is up largely because individual states such as North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Texas allow drilling on nonfederal lands to get oil and gas locked in shale formations such as the Bakken (ND), Marcellus (Mid Atlantic), and Eagle Ford (TX), and because of increased permitting on fed lands & waters under Bush.
As far as the future offshore and on federal lands, things don't look so rosy.
Federal lands:
Shortly after Obama entered office he cancelled 77 oil & natural gas exploratory leases that Bush had sold in Utah.
"...The Obama administration recently rescinded 77 oil and gas leases in Utah and stalled oil shale research and development in Utah, Colorado and Wyoming, where the federal government owns most of the world's oil shale reserves.
Out West, we may have a "Persia on the Plains." A Rand Corp. study says the Green River Formation, which covers parts of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, has the largest known oil shale deposits in the world, holding from 1.5 trillion to 1.8 trillion barrels of crude — most of it locked up by federal edict.
Under President Obama, the American Petroleum Institute notes, leases on federal lands in the West are down 44%, while permits and new well drilling are both down 39% compared to 2007 levels...."
Of course there was the recent denial of Keystone...
Off both coasts:
Bush opened up exploration off of both coasts before he left office. Obama rescinded that shortly after he got into office.
"...Only 2.2% of federal offshore land is currently being leased for production...."
Gulf of Mexico:
"....After the BP oil spill, President Obama shut down most Gulf of Mexico drilling and there's been a 57% drop in monthly deepwater permits since 2008, according to the Greater New Orleans Gulf Permit Index...."
Article doesn't even mention his 7 year moratorium on exploration in the Eastern Gulf.
Alaska Onshore
He still won't open up ANWR:
".....Then there are the 10 billion barrels locked up in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, which would require drilling in just 2,000 acres out of 19 million....."
Alaska Offshore
"....The federal government estimates there are 26.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 130 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Arctic Ocean's Outer Continental Shelf but repeated safety reviews and designation of much of the region as critical polar bear habitat has slowed development to a crawl....."
In 2010 he canceled 5 leases sales set for 2011 and 2012 in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas in Alaska. They have since granted up to 15 lease sales in the Chukchi and Beaufort, but now they won't take place till 2015 and 2016.
http://news.investors.com/article/60206 ... es.htm?p=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Refining capacity need to increase, as even though have had numerous refineries expand current capacity, haven't had a new one built since '08, and haven't had a major, complex one built since '77.
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=29&t=6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Elk poin, SD, is the location of the 1st new, major refinery to be opened in the US since 77'. Permit was applied for in 07' construction not slated to start till 2013- TOO MUCH RED TAPE. Not Obama's fault here, but he hasn't done anything to help matters.
http://articles.aberdeennews.com/2012-0 ... nvironment" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Because of opposition & stonewalling from Obama, that is having a great effect on the futures market, and therefore the increase in the CURRENT price of gas, because it takes announcements & plans NOW to increase supply 5-10 years down the road.
If Obama announced:
-He was immediately reversing his rescinding of the rest of the 77 leases out West.
-Immediately approving Keystone (it was studied for over 3 years)
-Immediately reversing his rescinding of opening up both coasts for exploration as Bush did.
-Immediately fast tracking Gulf of Mexico permits.
-Ending his 7 yr moratorium in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
-Asking Congress to open a tiny spec of ANWR for exploration (which is mostly barren, frozen tundra).
-Fast tracking the Alaskan offshore permits in the Chukchi and Beaufort
-Submitting a plan to fast track approval of new refineries
NONE of this would mean an increased supply of oil & natural gas this yr. Most wouldn't begin to take place for several years. But it would have an IMMEDIATE impact on the futures market, with a significant drop in the price of crude, both Brent and West Texas, which would have an IMMEDIATE impact at the pump. People say there is no quick fixes. BALONEY.
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