Ivytalk wrote:Good chance for GOP pickup now, methinks.
Deafening silence from TwinTownOracleMan.
wow... really?
of course it's a pickup opportunity for the GOP... but since Nelson was barely a Dem anyway - and, as T-Man points out - ever so willing to fuck his party (and every taxpayer not from Nebraska) over for his own gains... good riddance. One of two things will result:
the Dems lose the seat - no surprise - and then it's a devil we know, rather than one in our own midst
or
we convince Bob Kerrey to return and take another run at it - in which case we have a chance of holding it... which would be nice.
truth is - Bob Kerrey is probably our only chance - although Scott Kleeb would also be viable (if not victorious) - but I'm not dismayed at losing a disloyal shitbird like Nelson...
While the Dems Senate majority is holding on by a thread - I think its maintainable (despite the enormous pressures that could turn it)
Long-ass analysis below (I'll put it in spoiler for the tl;dr crowd)
- Spoiler: show
- Dems have to defend 22 seats to the GOP's 11 - and the Dems hold a 53-47* majority right now... meaning a swing of 4 puts it in GOP hands (or 3 should they manage to win the White House)
Safe Dems: (10)
Cantwell (WA)
Feinstein (CA)
Klobuchar (MN)
Manchin (WV)
Cardin (MD)
Casey (PA)
Menendez (NJ)
Gillibrand (NY)
Sanders (VT)
Whitehouse (RI)
Safe GOP: (6)
Hatch (UT)
Barasso (WY)
Wicker (MS)
Lugar (IN)
Corker (TN)
Snowe (ME)
Leaning Dem:
Connecticut Open (Murphy/Shays should be close - but Murphy likely keeps this one blue)
Nelson (FL) (The top tier candidates bailed on this race - and the Florida GOP is left with Connie Mack as their best shot)
Brown (OH) (unless polling changes dramatically - Sherrod Brown is moving toward "safe" with double-digit leads already)
Stabenow (MI) (Hoekstra is a real threat, and this race could end up as a toss up... but at this point it's a leaner)
New Mexico Open (no polling suggests this seat is at risk - even with the GOP recruiting a top-tier opponent)
Hawaii Open (Case/Hirono vs. Lingle could end up a toss-up... or just as easily a 10+ point blowout)
Leaning GOP:
Texas Open (Hutchison is retiring - once the field shakes out this should move back to safe GOP)
Arizona Open (This one very likely to end up in the "toss up" column before it's over)
Toss up:
Brown (MA) - Warren may end up making this favored if the race keeps going like this
Virginia Open - Warner/Allen is the matchup politicos have been waiting a decade for...
Wisconsin Open - Thompson/Baldwin is a real donnybrook in the making
McCaskill (MO) - quality opponents and a state likely not to be a Dem battleground don't do the Dem incumbent any favors
North Dakota Open - Heidi Heitkamp is opening up a lead in the polls - and Rick Berg, while viable - faces a significant enthusiasm gap as ND Dems are fired up to keep Conrad's seat and defeat the guy who last year beat Earl Pomeroy for the state's Congressional seat
Tester (MT) - Tester/Rehberg will be a brawl
Heller (NV) - Berkley is an elite candidate and Nevada is a huge target in the Presidential race... both factors make this a tempting Dem target - polling shows it neck and neck right now
Takeover GOP:
Nebraska Open - Unless Bob Kerrey gets in - this seat is a goner
At this point - there is only one seeming lead-pipe lock for a takeover
The Dems have 5 seats in "toss-up" country - the GOP has 2
The Dems have 5 leaners to the GOP's 2
While the GOP has some reason to be excited - with a slim majority for the Dems and a target rich environment... pulling 3 over and Nebraska - without losing anything (especially Mass or NV) is a tall order.
Although the kickback got removed in the final version so he sold out America for nothing. 
