Colonial Athletic Association Picks for Week #10

[ODUalum11]

James Madison @ New Hampshire
Towson @ Maine
William & Mary @ Rhode Island
Richmond @ Old Dominion
Villanova @ Massachusetts

Bonus/Future CAA Pick...

Georgia State vs. St. Francis

My picks,

JMU, needs the win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Maine, give the edge to the home team.
William & Mary, the Tribe better not be looking ahead to the following week when they play ODU at home.
Massachusetts, just don't see Villanova winning a CAA game this year.
Georgia State, who the hell is St. Francis?! They sound like a D-2 team.

[TribeFanInNC]

who the hell is St. Francis?! They sound like a D-2 team.

They are in the NEC.

[BDKJMU]

Current CAA playoff situation. Assuming it takes 7 Div I wins to get in, and 7 Div I wins along with playing a I-A opponent clinches a spot:

Maine, 7-1/5-0. Clinched playoff spot. Remaining games: Towson, UMass, @ UNH.

Towson, 6-2/4-1. Needs to win 1 of last 3. Remaining games: @Maine, UNH, @ URI.

UNH 6-2/4-1. Needs to win 1 of last 3. Remaining games: JMU, @ Towson, Maine.

ODU 7-2/4-2. Likely needs to win 1 of last 2 since didn't play a I-A. Remaining games: UR, @ W&M, bye.

JMU 5-3/3-2. Needs to win 2 of last 3. Remaining games: @ UNH, URI, @ UMass.

Delaware 5-4/3-3. Eliminated, played Div II, can't get to 7 Div I wins. Remaining games: bye, UR, @ Villanova.

W&M 4-4/2-3. Eliminated, played Div II, can't get to 7 Div I wins. Remaining games: @ URI, ODU, @ Richmond.

URI 2-6/1-4. Eliminated. Remaining games: W&M, @ JMU, Towson.

UR 3-5/0-5. Eliminated. Remaining games: @ ODU, @ UD, W&M.

Villanova 1-8/0-6. Eliminated. Remaining games: @ UMass, bye, UD.

UMass 5-3/3-2. Ineligible. Remaining games: Villanova, @ Maine, JMU.

[BDKJMU]

James Madison @ New Hampshire 24-20. Get 1st non offense TD of season.
Towson @ Maine by a TD or less.
William & Mary @ Rhode Island by a TD or less
Richmond @ Old Dominion by 1-2 TDs. If Corp couldn't light up the porous UMass secondary, guess he won't light up ODU's. ODU will probably have a post JMU win letdown and not beat UR as badly as they should, but will clinch a playoff spot with this win.
Villanova @ Massachusetts by 3-4 TDs.

[∞∞∞]

who the hell is St. Francis?! They sound like a D-2 team.

They are in the NEC.

The St. Francis team GSU is playin' is actually an NAIA program hailin' from the Mid-States Football Association.

[BDKJMU]

URI 2-6/1-4. Eliminated. Remaining games: W&M, @ JMU, Towson.

UR 3-5/0-5. Eliminated. Remaining games: @ ODU, @ UD, W&M.

Villanova 1-8/0-6. Eliminated. Remaining games: @ UMass, bye, UD.

Funny thing is, every CAA team plays 8 of the other 10. The bottom 3 above all miss each other.

[ODUalum11]

James Madison @ New Hampshire 20-14. JMU OL has been decimated. We're f*cked unless the defense/special teams can finally score a non offensive TD.
Towson @ Maine by a TD or less.
William & Mary @ Rhode Island by a TD or less
Richmond @ Old Dominion by 1-2 TDs. If Corp couldn't light up the porous UMass secondary, guess he won't light up ODU's. ODU will probably have a post JMU win letdown and not beat UR as badly as they should, but will clinch a playoff spot with this win.
Villanova @ Massachusetts by 3-4 TDs.

I don't know, ODU's secondary is also pretty weak. Like any other game this season our defense starts and ends with the success of our defensive line. BDK, you sould know about ODU's secondary since for a half this past saturday the Dukes looked as if they were primarily a passing team all along.

[CAA Flagship]

ODU 7-2/4-2. Likely needs to win 1 of last 2 since didn't play a I-A.

Whoa. I see what you did there, but I'm not sure why.
Are you saying that playing a 1-A (and losing) is essentially reducing your schedule to 10 games where a 7-3 record against FCS teams is better than a 7-4 record against FCS teams?

Much like the argument that UD has, if ODU loses it's last 2 games, it will be interesting to see who will beat them out for a playoff spot. It may be very difficult to find anyone.

[TribeFanInNC]

They are in the NEC.

The St. Francis team GSU is playin' is actually an NAIA program hailin' from the Mid-States Football Association.

Oops! I didn't realize that was St. Francis (IL) not St. Francis (PA).

[kdinva]

James Madison @ New Hampshire
Towson @ Maine
William & Mary @ Rhode Island
Richmond @ Old Dominion
Villanova @ Massachusetts

[mcveyrl]

ODU 7-2/4-2. Likely needs to win 1 of last 2 since didn't play a I-A.

Whoa. I see what you did there, but I'm not sure why.
Are you saying that playing a 1-A (and losing) is essentially reducing your schedule to 10 games where a 7-3 record against FCS teams is better than a 7-4 record against FCS teams?

Much like the argument that UD has, if ODU loses it's last 2 games, it will be interesting to see who will beat them out for a playoff spot. It may be very difficult to find anyone.

I think most years ODU's schedule would require them to go 8-3 to be a lock, but thebway things are playingnout, I think they are in even ifnthey lose their last two...

UD won't have an argument, they won't have 7 D-I wins. They'll be in the same boat as Montana last year.

[MadMaxMonarch]

ODU 7-2/4-2. Likely needs to win 1 of last 2 since didn't play a I-A.

Whoa. I see what you did there, but I'm not sure why.
Are you saying that playing a 1-A (and losing) is essentially reducing your schedule to 10 games where a 7-3 record against FCS teams is better than a 7-4 record against FCS teams?

Much like the argument that UD has, if ODU loses it's last 2 games, it will be interesting to see who will beat them out for a playoff spot. It may be very difficult to find anyone.

Yep. About as plausible as the infamous home court disadvantage statement.

[MadMaxMonarch]

James Madison @ New Hampshire 20-14. JMU OL has been decimated. We're f*cked unless the defense/special teams can finally score a non offensive TD.
Towson @ Maine by a TD or less.
William & Mary @ Rhode Island by a TD or less
Richmond @ Old Dominion by 1-2 TDs. If Corp couldn't light up the porous UMass secondary, guess he won't light up ODU's. ODU will probably have a post JMU win letdown and not beat UR as badly as they should, but will clinch a playoff spot with this win.
Villanova @ Massachusetts by 3-4 TDs.

I don't know, ODU's secondary is also pretty weak. Like any other game this season our defense starts and ends with the success of our defensive line. BDK, you sould know about ODU's secondary since for a half this past saturday the Dukes looked as if they were primarily a passing team all along.

ODUalum11, you are puttin' down more sandbags than a gulf coaster in hurricane season.

[TheDancinMonarch]

James Madison @ New Hampshire
Towson @ Maine
William & Mary @ Rhode Island
Richmond @ Old Dominion
Villanova @ Massachusetts

Bonus/Future CAA Pick...

Georgia State vs. St. Francis

[93henfan]

Current CAA playoff situation. Assuming it takes 7 Div I wins to get in, and 7 Div I wins along with playing a I-A opponent clinches a spot

Too many assumptions there, especially in this very weak year of FCS football. I don't see how you can say the #16 team in the country is already eliminated. This may very well be the year that a 6 Div I at-large makes the playoff field.

Here are the actual criteria, btw:

The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to
complete the bracket. Per NCAA Bylaw 31, the basic criteria used in the selection
of at-large participants are (1) won-lost record, (2) strength-of-schedule, and (3)
eligibility and availability of student-athletes for the NCAA championship;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of
schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of
not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all
Division I opponents; and
5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote
for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.
6. For those conferences that qualify for automatic qualification but do not receive it,
a guaranteed at-large position shall be awarded in any year in which its conference
champion team meets all of the following conditions:
a. Team wins a minimum of eight Division I games during the season;
b. Team wins a minimum of two non-conference games against Division I teams
representing a conference that has earned an automatic qualification in that year;
and
c. Team finishes the season ranked 20 or higher in an average of the last regularseason
media, coaches and/or computer polls (which will be determined by
the committee on an annual basis). For 2011, the media poll will be the Sports
Network Poll, the coaches poll will be the FCS Coaches poll and the computer
poll will be a variation of the Gridiron Power Index – using only the following
computer rankings: The Massey Ratings, Wolfe Rankings, Ashburn Rankings,
Self Rankings and the Laz Index.
[See Appendix B (page 43) for a map of the geographical regions.]

As you can clearly see, there is no requirement for 7 Div 1 victories to be selected. While it has been a "rule of thumb" and a tanking non-top 20 ranked Montana team didn't get in at 7-4 with 6 Div 1 wins last year, I wouldn't hang my hat on the "rule of thumb" this year for a top 15 (possibly top 10) team on a late-season three-game win streak and only 6 Div 1 wins being left out.

[mcveyrl]

Here are the actual criteria, btw:

The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to
complete the bracket. Per NCAA Bylaw 31, the basic criteria used in the selection
of at-large participants are (1) won-lost record, (2) strength-of-schedule, and (3)
eligibility and availability of student-athletes for the NCAA championship;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of
schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of
not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all
Division I opponents

I tried to pare it down to the pertinent rules. And note that criteria doesn't mention ranking.

Last year JMU played a full D-I schedule (criteria four) and had wins over the ACC Champion and the #2 seed in the playoffs. Of our five losses, three were to playoff teams (two by a one score margin) and the other two were by a score or less to teams with a winning record. We were on a two game win streak that included the win over the 2 seed.

I would imagine JMU's strength of schedule was stronger last year than UD's this year, particularly with the West Chester game on there. And JMU didn't have as bad of a loss as URI on there (although it did have more losses).

The only advantage for UD over that scenario is that it has less FCS losses than JMU did and I suppose that's a distinction the committee could hang their hat on, but we'll see. Between JMU and Montna last year, I think the committee sent a clear message that seven D-I wins is a must.

[bluehenbillk]

Since UD isn't playing here they are a day earlier than normal:

UNH 24 JMU 13 - Dukes hurting physically & mentally - not a good week to goto Durham
Maine 34 TU 20 - Black Bears roll, Tigers make it respectable late
URI 24 W&M 21 - Rams pull out another close one - faster than the Tribe
ODU 30 UR 21 - Monarchs sweat Corp & Gray but clinch a playoff spot
UMass 35 'Nova 14 - VU continues Bataan death march, another not-close defeat.

[93henfan]

Here are the actual criteria, btw:

I tried to pare it down to the pertinent rules. And note that criteria doesn't mention ranking.

Last year JMU played a full D-I schedule (criteria four) and had wins over the ACC Champion and the #2 seed in the playoffs. Of our five losses, three were to playoff teams (two by a one score margin) and the other two were by a score or less to teams with a winning record. We were on a two game win streak that included the win over the 2 seed.

I would imagine JMU's strength of schedule was stronger last year than UD's this year, particularly with the West Chester game on there. And JMU didn't have as bad of a loss as URI on there (although it did have more losses).

The only advantage for UD over that scenario is that it has less FCS losses than JMU did and I suppose that's a distinction the committee could hang their hat on, but we'll see. Between JMU and Montna last year, I think the committee sent a clear message that seven D-I wins is a must.

So what happens if there aren't 20 teams (including autos) that have 7 D-I wins in three weeks? This is a very weak FCS this year.

[mcveyrl]

I tried to pare it down to the pertinent rules. And note that criteria doesn't mention ranking.

Last year JMU played a full D-I schedule (criteria four) and had wins over the ACC Champion and the #2 seed in the playoffs. Of our five losses, three were to playoff teams (two by a one score margin) and the other two were by a score or less to teams with a winning record. We were on a two game win streak that included the win over the 2 seed.

I would imagine JMU's strength of schedule was stronger last year than UD's this year, particularly with the West Chester game on there. And JMU didn't have as bad of a loss as URI on there (although it did have more losses).

The only advantage for UD over that scenario is that it has less FCS losses than JMU did and I suppose that's a distinction the committee could hang their hat on, but we'll see. Between JMU and Montna last year, I think the committee sent a clear message that seven D-I wins is a must.

So what happens if there aren't 20 teams (including autos) that have 7 D-I wins in three weeks? This is a very weak FCS this year.

Your guess is as good as mine, but I think danefan's analysis of how the field will be filled in the other thread is probably accurate. There'll be 20 teams with seven D-I wins, they just might not be from the conferences we're used to seeing in terms of at-larges.

[93henfan]

It would very interesting to see if the committee would leave out a top 10 team, regardless of all the other rules of thumb. Of course, that team is just as likely to go 0-2 as it is to go 2-0 with the inconsistency this year, so the point may be moot.

[mcveyrl]

It would very interesting to see if the committee would leave out a top 10 team, regardless of all the other rules of thumb. Of course, that team is just as likely to go 0-2 as it is to go 2-0 with the inconsistency this year, so the point may be moot.

Here's a question: is it more likely that a 6 win UD or a 6 win JMU gets in? Assuming that UD wins out and JMU only wins the URI game (big assumptions all the way around), both have 6 wins, both are 4-3 against common opponents and JMU has the tougher strength of schedule, but more losses....

This is probably a question for the other thread, but we've done an adequate job of crashing this one, so why not keep it up.

[93henfan]

It would very interesting to see if the committee would leave out a top 10 team, regardless of all the other rules of thumb. Of course, that team is just as likely to go 0-2 as it is to go 2-0 with the inconsistency this year, so the point may be moot.

Here's a question: is it more likely that a 6 win UD or a 6 win JMU gets in? Assuming that UD wins out and JMU only wins the URI game (big assumptions all the way around), both have 6 wins, both are 4-3 against common opponents and JMU has the tougher strength of schedule, but more losses....

This is probably a question for the other thread, but we've done an adequate job of crashing this one, so why not keep it up.

I'd think the committee would see a bigger opening round draw in Harrisonburg and lean your way as the tiebreaker in that scenario.

[DJnVa]

James Madison 14 New Hampshire 24
Towson 24 Maine 30
William & Mary 20 Rhode Island 14
Richmond 22 Old Dominion 38
Villanova 13 Massachusetts 22

Bonus/Future CAA Pick...

Georgia State 0 St. Francis 598257843975

[MadMaxMonarch]

Here's a question: is it more likely that a 6 win UD or a 6 win JMU gets in? Assuming that UD wins out and JMU only wins the URI game (big assumptions all the way around), both have 6 wins, both are 4-3 against common opponents and JMU has the tougher strength of schedule, but more losses....

This is probably a question for the other thread, but we've done an adequate job of crashing this one, so why not keep it up.

I'd think the committee would see a bigger opening round draw in Harrisonburg and lean your way as the tiebreaker in that scenario.

The committee would look at potential crowd size and would come to the conclusion that although Delaware has a large and loyal fan base JMU would trumpet.

[93henfan]

I'd think the committee would see a bigger opening round draw in Harrisonburg and lean your way as the tiebreaker in that scenario.

The committee would look at potential crowd size and would come to the conclusion that although Delaware has a large and loyal fan base JMU would trumpet.