Big Sky football week 9

[frinq]

Nice to see you lose on PSU this time, Jalmond:-) Rushing strength vs passing defense weakness? Actually, our pass defense isn't all that bad - something like 4th in the BSC. It showed it today, though our line rushing Mitchell all night played a big role -he over-threw quite a few. Our rushing strength - almost 350 yards, much of it on the ground. Over 150 yards from Kavanaugh alone. And for a change, we played very well in the second half.

[JALMOND]

Nice to see you lose on PSU this time, Jalmond:-) Rushing strength vs passing defense weakness? Actually, our pass defense isn't all that bad - something like 4th in the BSC. It showed it today, though our line rushing Mitchell all night played a big role -he over-threw quite a few. Our rushing strength - almost 350 yards, much of it on the ground. Over 150 yards from Kavanaugh alone. And for a change, we played very well in the second half.

If I can't offer justification on picking the Vikings, I won't, and after watching McGhee pick apart our secondary, I had nightmares about what Mitchell would do. I like it when I'm wrong on Viking games, though. Kavanaugh over 300 total yards (154 rushing, 147 passing). Also, good to see Griffin have a decent game. It's about time.

How about the gutsy play of giving the ball to the true freshman on 4th and goal from the 2 for the nail on the coffin? Richard is going to be good. How's that for a prediction.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Portland St. 17-34 EWU — No McCaffrey means no realistic chance for the Vikings

Well, that was a misfire. Kavanaugh was PSU's one big remaining playmaker (on paper, at least) and the Eags let him run wild anyway.  Also odd was that BLM averaged over 10 ypa even while completing less than 50% of his passes. Was he just chucking it deep every play?


All of the sudden the Big Sky playoff field could be set. UM & MSU are in (barring an unthinkable UM loss to Western Oregon), Weber's out, EWU's out, and Sac will be out if they don't rally from a narrow halftime deficit. Cal Poly's down 17-0, so SUU might be the only other western team with a shot… and they have to win in the UNI-Dome to pull it off.

[JALMOND]

Portland St. 17-34 EWU — No McCaffrey means no realistic chance for the Vikings

Well, that was a misfire. Kavanaugh was PSU's one big remaining playmaker (on paper, at least) and the Eags let him run wild anyway.  Also odd was that BLM averaged over 10 ypa even while completing less than 50% of his passes. Was he just chucking it deep every play?


All of the sudden the Big Sky playoff field could be set. UM & MSU are in (barring an unthinkable UM loss to Western Oregon), Weber's out, EWU's out, and Sac will be out if they don't rally from a narrow halftime deficit. Cal Poly's down 17-0, so SUU might be the only other western team with a shot… and they have to win in the UNI-Dome to pull it off.

Hard to imagine that, the one year we can't schedule Davis, it will come back to bite us. It would have been great to have a counter (on paper anyway) to replace either Southern Oregon or Willamette. As it is, we could possibly only have losses to Montana and Montana State and a good FBS team in nationally ranked TCU (if we win out), and we can't get to the necessary win total. Maybe someday we'll figure out how to schedule.

[Mvemjsunpx]

All of the sudden the Big Sky playoff field could be set. UM & MSU are in (barring an unthinkable UM loss to Western Oregon), Weber's out, EWU's out, and Sac will be out if they don't rally from a narrow halftime deficit. Cal Poly's down 17-0, so SUU might be the only other western team with a shot… and they have to win in the UNI-Dome to pull it off.

The Hornets lose 27-26 thanks to a missed PAT. This has been a dismally disappointing season for Sac. If any year was their year to make noise, this was it, and they opened with a PAC-12 win. They've gone 2-5 since.


Cal Poly came back to win 27-24, though, so they're still in the hunt.

[SuperHornet]

All of the sudden the Big Sky playoff field could be set. UM & MSU are in (barring an unthinkable UM loss to Western Oregon), Weber's out, EWU's out, and Sac will be out if they don't rally from a narrow halftime deficit. Cal Poly's down 17-0, so SUU might be the only other western team with a shot… and they have to win in the UNI-Dome to pull it off.

The Hornets lose 27-26 thanks to a missed PAT. This has been a dismally disappointing season for Sac. If any year was their year to make noise, this was it, and they opened with a PAC-12 win. They've gone 2-5 since.


Cal Poly came back to win 27-24, though, so they're still in the hunt.

[GrizFanStuckInUtah]

Weber State @ Montana- I am reserving my right to change this pick this week depending on what happens with the tasing BS

Portland State @ Eastern Washington - I think the Eags will win this one in a fairly close game. I Might have picked differently a few weeks ago though.

North Dakota @ Northern Colorado- Bear jerky will be made this weekend.

Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State- NAU won't be able to take down Sac St on the road.

Idaho State @ Montana State- The kitties will maul the tiglets.

Missed 2 of the 5; Vikes still making noise and NAU with a tough fought win on the road.

[JALMOND]

As October comes to a close and we approach the end of the season, things do seem to come together. The best teams rise up, the bad teams fall and the pretenders seem to fade away. So far I am at 36-9 for the year (not one of my best) but I can start another streak. Here are this weekend's predictions in the Big Sky. All are my opinion only and all are of course open for discussion.

ISU at MSU---If there was one game all year in an otherwise massive rebuilding year that the Bengals wanted, it is this one and they will be ready. The Bobcats are coming off a game that was tougher than expected against Northern Colorado. The Bengals will be ready, this will be their season, will they be able to pull off the upset? One thing for sure is that this may get interesting. Or not...MSU 34, ISU 10.

NAU at Sac State---Last week the Lumberjacks showed that, even though the season may not have gone the way they wanted it, they are not dead yet. The Hornets, however, had a massive blow dealt to their dreams of a great season, letting Eastern Washington steal the win. Now they have to regroup as they are still in the race, kind of. Can they snap out of it or will there still be a hangover from last week...NAU 28, Sac State 26.

PSU at EWU---In the quest for the Dam(n) Cup, both teams come in with a fair amount of injuries. For the Eagles, that is nothing new as the list reads like a Whos Who of those players from last year. Yet they still keep on winning and still keep their season alive, like last week's performance at Sacramento State. For the Vikings the injuries are not quite as many, but key personnel are getting dinged up. This week, the Vikings potent running game against the Eagles questionable run defense and the Eagles vaunted passing attack against the Vikings weak secondary. What do you expect...EWU 48, PSU 42.

North Dakota at UNC---For those who have withstood the Bears season, last week's performance may offer a glimmer of hope as they never let Montana State get comfortable in the lead. It is true that the Bears now are different than the Bears at the beginning of the year and their showing against the Bobcats was no fluke. But can they get a win somehow? This weekend may not be easy, but it may be their best shot...UNC 21, North Dakota 17.

WSU at UM---What is going on with the Wildcats? Are they a good team still in the hunt or are they just a team that seems to do good. Last week, their halftime adjustments against Southern Utah went for naught and they lost a game they thought they had. Now they have to go to unfriendly territory and play at the Grizzlies home field. The Grizzlies have had their share of an interesting week, but they should not have any problem with the Wildcats, as long as it is at their house...UM 27, WSU 14.

Another quest for perfection.

3-2 but one was my own Vikings team. I'll take the miss on that one. 39-11 for the year. Not only did I pick NAU/Sac State but I was almost right on the score.

[SDHornet]

Kicking game costs us another win. A missed FG and this time 2 blocked PAT's was the difference. That combined with 2 turnovers inside the NAU 10 ended the Hornets season. We were Fleming-less again and injuries are mounting, but the last 2 weeks still should have been wins.

[frinq]

Yeah, even if PSU wins out and Montana loses to MSU, we just don't have the record. And by the way, Weber's still in there. Still, it would make for an interesting playoff game, with our rushing focus. Not many rushing teams around out here in the West.

[cats2506]

Yeah, even if PSU wins out and Montana loses to MSU, we just don't have the record. And by the way, Weber's still in there. Still, it would make for an interesting playoff game, with our rushing focus. Not many rushing teams around out here in the West.

Weber can only get 6 DI wins if the win out

[SuperHornet]

Yeah, even if PSU wins out and Montana loses to MSU, we just don't have the record. And by the way, Weber's still in there. Still, it would make for an interesting playoff game, with our rushing focus. Not many rushing teams around out here in the West.

Weber can only get 6 DI wins if the win out

Again, THEORETICALLY, 6 D-I wins CAN result in a playoff berth. It happened last year, though it was an autobid. Theoretically, it can happen with an at-large, but so far such has NEVER happened, mainly because those involved haven't had a schedule difficult enough to overcome a school with even an AVERAGE 7-4 record. We MAY eventually see one in this expandoplayoffs era, but it will likely be after we go to 24 (or even 32 teams), and the first one will probably be a CAA or SoCon team with some impressive FBS losses and NO D-II games whatsoever. In any event, while THEORETICALLY it can happen, Weber is patently NOT the team to do it (unfortunately).

[Mvemjsunpx]

Again, THEORETICALLY, 6 D-I wins CAN result in a playoff berth. It happened last year, though it was an autobid. Theoretically, it can happen with an at-large, but so far such has NEVER happened, mainly because those involved haven't had a schedule difficult enough to overcome a school with even an AVERAGE 7-4 record. We MAY eventually see one in this expandoplayoffs era, but it will likely be after we go to 24 (or even 32 teams), and the first one will probably be a CAA or SoCon team with some impressive FBS losses and NO D-II games whatsoever. In any event, while THEORETICALLY it can happen, Weber is patently NOT the team to do it (unfortunately).

Realistically it can't, though. The only way it happens is if there aren't enough 7 DI teams or the only ones left are Pioneer teams. I don't believe that's ever come close to happening.

[SuperHornet]

Again, THEORETICALLY, 6 D-I wins CAN result in a playoff berth. It happened last year, though it was an autobid. Theoretically, it can happen with an at-large, but so far such has NEVER happened, mainly because those involved haven't had a schedule difficult enough to overcome a school with even an AVERAGE 7-4 record. We MAY eventually see one in this expandoplayoffs era, but it will likely be after we go to 24 (or even 32 teams), and the first one will probably be a CAA or SoCon team with some impressive FBS losses and NO D-II games whatsoever. In any event, while THEORETICALLY it can happen, Weber is patently NOT the team to do it (unfortunately).

Realistically it can't, though. The only way it happens is if there aren't enough 7 DI teams or the only ones left are Pioneer teams. I don't believe that's ever come close to happening.

Which is why I said that the schedule plays a role. If it EVER happens, it will likely be a CAA/SoCon team that overschedules FBS to the exclusion of D-IIs. The problem with such a schedule, of course, is that you risk injuy issues that would prevent one from even getting to 6 wins. Plus, there would have to be enough spots (again the bump to 24 or 32 spots) to filter out the decent 7-win teams. And even then, your citation of potential 7-4 Pioneer teams to be snubbed would ALSO come into effect. In a high-parity year with a 24- or 32-team playoff scenario, I could see a CAA school crazy enough to schedule 3 FBS teams (not likely, but possible) and survived get in at 6-5 given the perceived difficulty of that conference, especially if one or two of those FBS teams are high-level B(C)$ schools. Definitely hard to pull off even the scheduling since FBS teams are increasingly skittish of signing FCS games, but certainly possible.

[cats2506]

Weber can only get 6 DI wins if the win out

Again, THEORETICALLY, 6 D-I wins CAN result in a playoff berth. It happened last year, though it was an autobid. Theoretically, it can happen with an at-large, but so far such has NEVER happened, mainly because those involved haven't had a schedule difficult enough to overcome a school with even an AVERAGE 7-4 record. We MAY eventually see one in this expandoplayoffs era, but it will likely be after we go to 24 (or even 32 teams), and the first one will probably be a CAA or SoCon team with some impressive FBS losses and NO D-II games whatsoever. In any event, while THEORETICALLY it can happen, Weber is patently NOT the team to do it (unfortunately).

THEORETICALLY if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle

No Weber is done

1. The can only get d DI wins, the committee showed last year that they would take a team from a weak conference with 7 DI wins rather than take one with 6 DI wins from a stronger conference.

2. to date WSU does not have a quality win really, their best win is over a bi-polar Sac St. team that cant get 7 DI wins either.

3. WSU's other 2 wins are against ISU and UNC, the 2 worst teams in the Big Sky

4. With WSU's current injury situation, it is highly doubtful that they can beat MSU, they will continue to struggle with PSU and NAU, I am not sure they will win another game this year.

You can talk THEORETICALLY all you want but WSU is done for the year.

[Grizalltheway]

Again, THEORETICALLY, 6 D-I wins CAN result in a playoff berth. It happened last year, though it was an autobid. Theoretically, it can happen with an at-large, but so far such has NEVER happened, mainly because those involved haven't had a schedule difficult enough to overcome a school with even an AVERAGE 7-4 record. We MAY eventually see one in this expandoplayoffs era, but it will likely be after we go to 24 (or even 32 teams), and the first one will probably be a CAA or SoCon team with some impressive FBS losses and NO D-II games whatsoever. In any event, while THEORETICALLY it can happen, Weber is patently NOT the team to do it (unfortunately).

THEORETICALLY if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle

No Weber is done

1. The can only get d DI wins, the committee showed last year that they would take a team from a weak conference with 7 DI wins rather than take one with 6 DI wins from a stronger conference.

2. to date WSU does not have a quality win really, their best win is over a bi-polar Sac St. team that cant get 7 DI wins either.

3. WSU's other 2 wins are against ISU and UNC, the 2 worst teams in the Big Sky

4. With WSU's current injury situation, it is highly doubtful that they can beat MSU, they will continue to struggle with PSU and NAU, I am not sure they will win another game this year.

You can talk THEORETICALLY all you want but WSU is done for the year.

Are you talking about Robert Morris? They were and AQ, not an at-large...

[SuperHornet]

GATW: Wondering why you chose to quote 2506's refutation of my position (which only served to agree with my assessment that Weber was NOT the team to get a 6-5 at-large nod.

In any event, I was referring to not Robert Morris but Stony Brook, which was ALSO an autobid, which I fully noted in another thread. I bring it up only to establish that a 6-5 playoff berth IS possible. I don't necessarily WANT to see it as that evokes images of the 2000 Flushes Torlet Bowl in the FBS. I dread the day the selection committee has to decide whether or not to revoke a conference's autobid because their "champion" barely had 5 D-I wins....

[JALMOND]

Weber can only get 6 DI wins if the win out

Again, THEORETICALLY, 6 D-I wins CAN result in a playoff berth. It happened last year, though it was an autobid. Theoretically, it can happen with an at-large, but so far such has NEVER happened, mainly because those involved haven't had a schedule difficult enough to overcome a school with even an AVERAGE 7-4 record. We MAY eventually see one in this expandoplayoffs era, but it will likely be after we go to 24 (or even 32 teams), and the first one will probably be a CAA or SoCon team with some impressive FBS losses and NO D-II games whatsoever. In any event, while THEORETICALLY it can happen, Weber is patently NOT the team to do it (unfortunately).

Actually Portland State has a better shot than Weber of getting to 6 DI wins. Home games against Sac State and the Wildcats and a road game at Northern Colorado.

Actually, if there was a team (or teams) to go with six DI wins this year, more likely they will come from the CAA, SoCon or the Valley. I don't think PSU, EWU, WSU or Sac has the resume when compared to the rest of the nation with six or seven DI wins.

[WeberAlum02]

Weber is done, as is Sac and EWU. No debate at all. MSU and UM will get playoff bids, and PSU has an outside shot but will likely not get a bid. Looks like only two spots for the conference this year.

[Mvemjsunpx]

GATW: Wondering why you chose to quote 2506's refutation of my position (which only served to agree with my assessment that Weber was NOT the team to get a 6-5 at-large nod.

In any event, I was referring to not Robert Morris but Stony Brook, which was ALSO an autobid, which I fully noted in another thread. I bring it up only to establish that a 6-5 playoff berth IS possible. I don't necessarily WANT to see it as that evokes images of the 2000 Flushes Torlet Bowl in the FBS.

I think you mean Coastal, not Stony Brook.

I dread the day the selection committee has to decide whether or not to revoke a conference's autobid because their "champion" barely had 5 D-I wins....

Why would the selection committee do that? Whether a conference has an auto-bid has nothing to do with how good they are. It's all about having a certain number of (playoff eligible) teams & having them together for a certain period of time.

[frinq]

I agree that PSU has an outside chance - they could easily win out against Sac St., UNC and Weber. But even so their schedule makes it very unlikely they'll pick up a playoff spot. PSU has gone through some weird schedules over the last ten years; one year 3 FBCs, then mostly 2 FBCs, then this year when we schedule of all things an NCCAII and NCAAIII. OK, I'll accept that Burton came in to find a dead team; some easy games were necessary to build confidence. But no more! Next year will certainly be scheduled more strongly now that we've proved we can play with the big boys.

[SuperHornet]

I agree that PSU has an outside chance - they could easily win out against Sac St., UNC and Weber. But even so their schedule makes it very unlikely they'll pick up a playoff spot. PSU has gone through some weird schedules over the last ten years; one year 3 FBCs, then mostly 2 FBCs, then this year when we schedule of all things an NCCAII and NCAAIII. OK, I'll accept that Burton came in to find a dead team; some easy games were necessary to build confidence. But no more! Next year will certainly be scheduled more strongly now that we've proved we can play with the big boys.

A lot of that will depend on what the AD has already done. Schools often schedule OOC games years in advance, and when there's a coaching change, the incoming coach has no say in the schedule for several years to come. John Volek never got the FBS game he wanted while he was at Sac (and we'll probably NEVER get that game, and as much as I love the man, that's probably a good thing). I wouldn't blame Mr. Tiger if there's another bad schedule next year unless he has enough influence with the AD to get the bad games bought out and replaced with better ones.

[SuperHornet]

GATW: Wondering why you chose to quote 2506's refutation of my position (which only served to agree with my assessment that Weber was NOT the team to get a 6-5 at-large nod.

In any event, I was referring to not Robert Morris but Stony Brook, which was ALSO an autobid, which I fully noted in another thread. I bring it up only to establish that a 6-5 playoff berth IS possible. I don't necessarily WANT to see it as that evokes images of the 2000 Flushes Torlet Bowl in the FBS.

I think you mean Coastal, not Stony Brook.

You are correct. One would think I'd remember that given that I have a friend attending that fine aquatic school.

I dread the day the selection committee has to decide whether or not to revoke a conference's autobid because their "champion" barely had 5 D-I wins....

Why would the selection committee do that? Whether a conference has an auto-bid has nothing to do with how good they are. It's all about having a certain number of (playoff eligible) teams & having them together for a certain period of time.

Perhaps I should have phrased that as "suspension" of the autobid. I wouldn't think the NCAA could/would permanently remove a league's autobid for having one crappy season when they otherwise meet the requirements. I'm not sure there's a minimum record required for the hoops tournament, so when a crappy team with a losing record makes it by getting hot during the conference tournament, it's a novelty, but one wonders if they truly belong. The same thing would apply for a 5-6/5-7 (depending on the year) team that somehow won an autobid. They would probably be slaughtered in the first round a la the 13-20 team in the NCAAs. Is there any leeway in the football playoff rules to bypass that?

[Mvemjsunpx]

Perhaps I should have phrased that as "suspension" of the autobid. I wouldn't think the NCAA could/would permanently remove a league's autobid for having one crappy season when they otherwise meet the requirements. I'm not sure there's a minimum record required for the hoops tournament, so when a crappy team with a losing record makes it by getting hot during the conference tournament, it's a novelty, but one wonders if they truly belong. The same thing would apply for a 5-6/5-7 (depending on the year) team that somehow won an autobid. They would probably be slaughtered in the first round a la the 13-20 team in the NCAAs. Is there any leeway in the football playoff rules to bypass that?

The NCAA couldn't "suspend" an auto-bid unless the rules were changed beforehand. An auto-bid is just that: automatic. A 5-6 team can make the playoffs as long as the conference is small enough for 5 (or fewer) conference wins to realistically win it.

The winning record rule only applies to bowl games as far as I know; bowl games aren't run by the NCAA. However, if a team wins their conference, they would likely get a waiver to let them play in the bowl anyway just like North Texas when they won the Sun Belt with a 5-6 record 10 years ago.

[SuperHornet]

Wow. I didn't know about that situation with North Texas. There are teams making crappy bowls all the time (mainly midlevel B(C)$ programs like Cal) who sneak in at 6-6. Do they have to get waivers, too, or is the 6 wins enough?