Big Sky Playoff Teams To Get In? Part 2

weberwildcat · Post by **weberwildcat** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 2:38 pm

MSU still looks like they will get the autobid and the Griz for an at-large. Weber, EWU and Sac look like they have a chance at a post season. Could the Sky get 3 in? 4 looks unlikely until next year's expansion.

We all know 7 DI wins isn't an automatic qualifier for a post season but it is important to even be considered.

To get 7 wins
MSU 5-1 vs DI, 4 games left to get 2 wins
UM 5-2 vs DI, 3 games left to get 2 wins
Sac 3-3, had bye week so still 5 games left to get 4 wins
Weber 3-3, 5 games left to get 4 wins
EWU 3-4, 4 games left to get 4 wins
PSU is eliminated for losing to Griz. They have 4 DI games left and have 2 DI wins.

EWU can't lose another game to get 7 wins. Even if Weber loses another and get 7 wins it might not be enough to get in. If 3 teams finished 7-4 that would be lower my team's chances even more. Two teams probab will get to 8 wins this year but you never know. Weber's fate will be decided in the next 3 weeks with SUU, UM, MSU coming up.

Big Sky Standings:
MSU 4-0
UM 4-1
WSU 3-1
EWU 3-2
Sac 2-2
PSU 2-2
NAU 1-3
ISU 1-4
UNC 0-5

weberwildcat · Post by **weberwildcat** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 4:30 pm

Weber to the playoffs! Who will join us and the Bobs as the 3rd team in?

Post by **Grizalltheway** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:30 pm

weberwildcat wrote:Weber to the playoffs! Who will join us and the Bobs as the 3rd team in?

Seriously? You guys are 3-3, and still have to play both MT schools, as well as a tough PSU team on the road. Don't get your hopes up.

weberwildcat · Post by **weberwildcat** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 7:22 pm

Its ok if I do, basketball is about to start!

weberwildcat · Post by **weberwildcat** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 7:25 pm

if ewu loses to sac this week we can be the 2nd or 3rd team in with a win in Missoula which we never do.

lakesbison · Post by **lakesbison** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:02 pm

Mon/msu thats it

Northcoast · Post by **Northcoast** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:11 pm

Montana ain't getting in. Have you watched them? They can only lose one more time, and they may lose 3 more times.

lakesbison · Post by **lakesbison** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:15 pm

Nope northcoast. Then id say 1 team gets in

Post by **Grizalltheway** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:16 pm

Northcoast wrote:Montana ain't getting in. Have you watched them? They can only lose one more time, and they may lose 3 more times.

What kinda odds you giving on that?

JacksFan2011 · Post by **JacksFan2011** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:26 pm

Grizalltheway wrote:
weberwildcat wrote:Weber to the playoffs! Who will join us and the Bobs as the 3rd team in?

Seriously? You guys are 3-3, and still have to play both MT schools, as well as a tough PSU team on the road. Don't get your hopes up.

Realistically, WSU might be able to finish 2-3 at best or maybe even 1-4. You will beat NAU at home and maybe PSU, but not likely. SUU, UM, and MSU are all games in which I see losses for Weber, BUT who knows? The Big Sky is wide open/unpredictable this year

SuperHornet · Post by **SuperHornet** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:34 pm

Um, no. SUU is on a downward spiral. Weber is going to kick their shells.

JacksFan2011 · Post by **JacksFan2011** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:40 pm

SuperHornet wrote:Um, no. SUU is on a downward spiral. Weber is going to kick their shells.

I realize they are on a bit of a losing streak, especially after CP last week. UNLV may be one of the worst programs in FBS, but any FCS team that can find a way to beat an FBS team (especially 41-16) deserves a little bit of credit. It might be a close game, but I have a good feeling that Southern Utah will turn it around on the road

SuperHornet · Post by **SuperHornet** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:47 pm

JacksFan2011 wrote:
SuperHornet wrote:Um, no. SUU is on a downward spiral. Weber is going to kick their shells.
I realize they are on a bit of a losing streak, especially after CP last week. UNLV may be one of the worst programs in FBS, but any FCS team that can find a way to beat an FBS team (especially 41-16) deserves a little bit of credit. It might be a close game, but I have a good feeling that Southern Utah will turn it around on the road

If that's the case, then how come Sac's not in any poll outside of CS?

JacksFan2011 · Post by **JacksFan2011** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:54 pm

You barely got by Oregon State which is great and then you got crushed by SUU. Not taking anything away from Sac because they are a great team, but I'm not sure how good they really are. Big wins against OSU and UM, but other than that nothing too impressive

lumberjerk · Post by **lumberjerk** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 9:07 pm

southern utah is way underrated

weberwildcat · Post by **weberwildcat** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 10:03 pm

JacksFan2011 wrote:You barely got by Oregon State which is great and then you got crushed by SUU. Not taking anything away from Sac because they are a great team, but I'm not sure how good they really are. Big wins against OSU and UM, but other than that nothing too impressive

sac has one of the best resume's so far in the big sky. who has bigger wins? they have a chance to take down ewu this week.

weberwildcat · Post by **weberwildcat** » Mon Oct 17, 2011 10:05 pm

SuperHornet wrote:Um, no. SUU is on a downward spiral. Weber is going to kick their shells.

i think weber will win. we are 14-3 against them all time but i do not think that will make a difference. we haven't played suu in 5 yrs. im glad the game is at home for us. if our Dline does not pressure Sorenson we will be in trouble like we were at EWU.

i feel good about our Dline though after last week. The Beast's first game back and the team had 8 sacks, 2 blocked punts and a safety.

Suu doenst have much left to play for. they have almost no chance to be going to the playoffs. they have 4 games left and 3 are on the road and they are 0-3, 3-4. they have to beat davis to avoid 0 conferences wins this yr.

@ weber
uc davis
@ northern iowa
@ nau

Northcoast · Post by **Northcoast** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:51 am

UM out mark it down

SuperHornet · Post by **SuperHornet** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 7:20 am

1. MSU -- Autobid.
2. UM -- Must beat EITHER Weber or MSU. Guaranteed if Griz win out.
3. WSU -- Must beat EITHER Montana or MSU. Guaranteed if Wildcats win out.
4. Sac -- Must win out. Possible with loss to EWU, but not likely.
5. EWU -- Must win out PERIOD.
6. PSU -- Scheduled out.

weberwildcat · Post by **weberwildcat** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:11 am

SuperHornet wrote:1. MSU -- Autobid.
2. UM -- Must beat EITHER Weber or MSU. Guaranteed if Griz win out.
3. WSU -- Must beat EITHER Montana or MSU. Guaranteed if Wildcats win out.
4. Sac -- Must win out. Possible with loss to EWU, but not likely.
5. EWU -- Must win out PERIOD.
6. PSU -- Scheduled out.

so it would be narrowed down to 4 schools if ewu loses at sac. other than that no change since sac technically can lose and stil be a long shot like weber. a weber loss in missoula in 2 weeks would narrow the group down to 3 teams if ewu has a loss by then. would he cool to see 3 7 win teams.

Post by **Silenoz** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:39 am

Northcoast wrote:Montana ain't getting in. Have you watched them? They can only lose one more time, and they may lose 3 more times.

Chance we go 4-0 = 20%
Chance we go 3-1 = 50%
Chance we go 2-2 = 25%
Chance we go 1-3 = 4.9%
Chance we go 0-4 = 0.1%

Post by **Silenoz** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:41 am

Chance MSU burns Monte effigies and shouts ESG GCG at non-Griz games = 100%

catbooster · Post by **catbooster** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:56 am

SuperHornet wrote:1. MSU -- Autobid.
2. UM -- Must beat EITHER Weber or MSU. Guaranteed if Griz win out.
3. WSU -- Must beat EITHER Montana or MSU. Guaranteed if Wildcats win out.
4. Sac -- Must win out. Possible with loss to EWU, but not likely.
5. EWU -- Must win out PERIOD.
6. PSU -- Scheduled out.

^^ pretty much how I see it.

If UM or WSU win out, they will take the autobid due to winning the head-to-head tie breaker. I think MSU would still be in the playoffs if they lose one of those, but would lose their seed. Right now I'm assuming winning out gives MSU a high seeding.

UM will probably be favored in 2 of their 3 remaining games, and rivalry games can be unpredictable....

I think WSU can make the playoffs with a loss to UM or MSU as the recent loss would be to a team with a high ranking in the polls. But they can't afford to be dominated. Still a bubble team, but reasonably likely with one of those losses even though they're not in the polls right now.

I think Sac makes the playoffs if they win out, but if they lose to Eastern they need a lot of help from around the country to minimize their competition for the last playoff spots with only 7 wins. If they lose to Eastern, they will be out of the top 25 and the remaining teams won't give them much of a bump.

weberwildcat · Post by **weberwildcat** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 2:29 pm

griz are in no matter what if they have 7 DI wins any give season with the expanded playoffs. they can get 20,000 to a playoff game.

cats2506 · Post by **cats2506** » Tue Oct 18, 2011 5:57 pm

Silenoz wrote:Chance MSU burns Monte effigies and shouts ESG GCG at non-Griz games = 100%

Wouldn't have it any other way.

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