The road to the Big South Autobid

[ToTheLeft]

Is the consensus, then, that Liberty's homecoming game is the de facto Big South Championship Game? Or is there someone else out there who seems likely to spoil things? Like maybe Stony Brook?

I'd say it's a "Commander-in-Cheif" situation. The trophy goes to the team with the best combined record between CCU/SBU/LU.

[oceandogs]

Is the consensus, then, that Liberty's homecoming game is the de facto Big South Championship Game? Or is there someone else out there who seems likely to spoil things? Like maybe Stony Brook?

I think the de facto Big South championship game is when the winner of Liberty-Coastal comes to Long Island to play Stony Brook.

[Seawolf97]

While we play a tough one against D2 St. Anselm's I will be watching things in Virginia.

[CSUBUCDAD]

It truly would be a miracle for Chuck South to run the table in conference play and make the playoffs for the first time in history with a 6-5 record

[Knucklehead]

I think this game (CCU @LU) is in Liberty's hands. The only way CCU wins is if LU looses. This means we have to keep turnovers and penalties WAY down.

I have a feeling that homecoming, and the huge crowd will inspire the boys and LU will roll by at least 2 scores.

Now the question for the rest of FCS is, who would you rather face out of the Big south? I have a feeling that most teams in the top 10 would prefer not to see Liberty. Just MHO!

[ToTheLeft]

Now the question for the rest of FCS is, who would you rather face out of the Big south? I have a feeling that most teams in the top 10 would prefer not to see Liberty. Just MHO!

Yeah, our win over RMU is striking fear in the hearts of all top 10 teams!

[Knucklehead]

Say what you want, the reality is that this 3-3 team is 6 total points away from 5-1. IF they get it all together, this could be a scary playoff team.

[ToTheLeft]

8 points away from being 5-1.

6 points away from forcing overtime against 2 teams that had us on our heels for 60 minutes.

And that sort of stuff is for losers. "We're this many points away" should read "We're a coach who is able to get his players disciplined and ready for big games away" or "We're a few plays worth of executing the gameplan and avoiding stupid penalties that good teams don't commit away."

Liberty is not that scary of a team. Mike turns it over way too much, and we can't control the offensive or defensive line against any mid to high level opponent on the FCS level. We've been able to beat RMU, G-WU, and Kentucky Wesleyan. No one is scared of us. In a playoff game, where EVERY detail matters, we'd be shred apart. I have a feeling, however, that this weekend will show that our defense isn't up to par, and that even if we make it through this weekend, this isn't a national championship contending team, and it is probably a team that wouldn't win a home playoff game.

I'd love to be proven wrong. But I am well past playing the "we lost to a good team" and the "we almost won" game. We didn't almost beat WVU, we didn't almost beat Wake, and we didn't almost beat JMU. We're 0-5 in those games I listed. There's no "beating" anywhere, except for the beatings we take in the trenches. We're not there yet, and this was supposed to be our "best team yet" under Rocco. Your boy, Rocco! He said that!

ROCCO says this isn't a good football team right now. So, who should a top 10 team believe, a guy named Knucklehead (no further comment), or the coach of a football team who has the stats and records on his side?

[JmuSkinsfan]

So, what happens if Liberty goes 5-1, wins the conference, and emerges with just 6 DI wins on the season? I'm guessing they would still get the auto-bid correct? They would be 7-4 but one of those wins would be against a DII

[ToTheLeft]

So, what happens if Liberty goes 5-1, wins the conference, and emerges with just 6 DI wins on the season? I'm guessing they would still get the auto-bid correct? They would be 7-4 but one of those wins would be against a DII

Auto-bid is auto-bid. Coastal made it without 7 wins PERIOD, much less 7 DI wins. They finished the season 6-6 after losing to WIU.

[Knucklehead]

I love your passion TTL, but I think the team will prove you wrong. And I didn't really pose my question to you at all.

[ToTheLeft]

Yeah, because I am presenting facts and not rah-rah, of course you didn't pose it to me.

[Ibanez]

Is the consensus, then, that Liberty's homecoming game is the de facto Big South Championship Game? Or is there someone else out there who seems likely to spoil things? Like maybe Stony Brook?

I think the de facto Big South championship game is when the winner of Liberty-Coastal comes to Long Island to play Stony Brook.

Eh, Stony Brook has never had the championship all to themselves. Coastal and LIberty have. The three have always competed well. We'll see. Hopefully it's CCU. So far our only loss was to UGA.

[bjtheflamesfan]

I think I made this point in a discussion elsewhere but despite how off Liberty is this year, its going to take something that hasnt happened in quite some time for Liberty to not win the Big South (in some form), and that is they are gonna have to lose at home. Here are some "facts" culled by our resident beatwriter:

2. I went back and broke down Liberty's 12-game home Big South win streak to try to see if anybody had even come close to knocking off the Flames at Williams Stadium during that run. What we found out:

2a. The closest margin of victory during the streak was against Coastal Carolina in 2007, a 37-24 win.

2b. Win margins during the streak:
* 0-9 -- 0 times
* 10-19 -- 2 times (34-20 vs. CSU in 2006; 37-24 vs. CCU in 2007)
* 20-29 -- 4 times (30-10 vs. GWU in 2008; 44-20 vs. CSU in 2010; 40-14 vs. GWU in 2010; 54-28 vs. SBU in 2010)
* 30-39 -- 4 times (73-34 vs. VMI in 2007; 33-0 vs. SBU in 2008; 55-19 vs. PC in 2009; 54-14 vs. VMI in 2009)
* 40-49 -- 2 times (42-0 vs. CSU in 2008; 58-13 vs. CCU in 2009)

2c. Times that the opponent has led at halftime during the streak: 0

2d. Times that the opponent has been within 10 points of Liberty at halftime during the streak: 3 (16-6 vs. Coastal in 2009; 16-7 vs. CSU in 2010; 20-14 vs. SBU in 2010)

2e. Times that the opponent has led after three quarters during the streak: 0

2f. Times the opponent has been within 10 points of Liberty after three quarters during the streak: 2 (16-14 vs. CSU in 2010, won by 24; 37-28 vs. SBU in 2010, won by 26).

2g. In the last two seasons, or the last six games of the streak, Liberty has outscored the opponent 114-39 in the fourth quarter.

and remember also that in their last two trips to the mountain, CCU has been summarily curbstomped (37-24 in 2007 and 58-13 in 2009). Also factor in that CCU (much like Liberty) does not have much of a running game outside of Aramis Hillary and it doesnt bode well for the visitors.

[ToTheLeft]

How about our record against ranked teams?

[bjtheflamesfan]

7-35 I believe I noted in a discussion on our board TTL...this creates a "something's gotta give" scenario. If the Liberty team as noted in the scribe's research shows up on Saturday, then as I said there, we can take solace in the fact that we kicked a ranked team's *** in our own stadium (and that is more than likely what is going to happen). If the team that has not been able to get over the psychological "hump" that is facing ranked teams shows up, then it could go CCU's way

[Knucklehead]

Rankings are over rated.

[ToTheLeft]

Rankings mean more than "almost" beating someone.

At least rankings are about things that ACTUALLY happened.

[Knucklehead]

I was referring to the fact that CCU is ranked in the Coaches poll but nowhere else. Both teams have a lot to prove, Liberty more than CCU. I just believe Liberty is about to prove it!

[bjtheflamesfan]

I have to say that Im not too terribly impressed with CCU's record. Their wins are over Furman (who lost to Samford last week), Catawba and North Carolina A&T. As our scribe noted in his blog,

This will be Coastal quarterback Aramis Hillary's first significant road test in an FCS game.

Another point of note,

I detailed in yesterday's blog post Liberty's home Big South dominance in the last five years. The Flames have won their last 12 league home games, and they've never trailed at halftime or at the end of the third quarter in any of those games. And you have to go back a while to find the last time CCU won a big road game (2006 at Wofford). Sorry, North Carolina A&T, Monmouth, Gardner-Webb, Presbyterian and Chuck South don't count as big road wins.

[Knucklehead]

I agree, coastal is talented, but mostly unproven. Liberty is also unproven but against MUCH better talent.

[ToTheLeft]

I agree, coastal is talented, but mostly unproven. Liberty is also unproven but against MUCH better talent.

This is downright comical. Do you read what you're saying?

And we're not "unproven". We've proved we can't win big games. There's proof of that. I can provide it again, if you'd like.

[bjtheflamesfan]

As I said TTL, at this point to win the Big South (outright) someone is going to have to win in Lynchburg, and that is something that has not happened (and as I noted above, in most cases, it hasnt even been close) in 5 years. Ranked or not, CCU knows that they have a tall order ahead of them and also knows that this is a big game (which as I also noted a couple posts ago according to our scribe, is something they havent done away from the sunny beaches in quite some time either). Assuming that both trends continue, it could be a long afternoon for the visitors.

[ToTheLeft]

As I said TTL, at this point to win the Big South (outright) someone is going to have to win in Lynchburg, and that is something that has not happened (and as I noted above, in most cases, it hasnt even been close) in 5 years. Ranked or not, CCU knows that they have a tall order ahead of them and also knows that this is a big game (which as I also noted a couple posts ago according to our scribe, is something they havent done away from the sunny beaches in quite some time either). Assuming that both trends continue, it could be a long afternoon for the visitors.

You know what all these trends have in common?

They're in the PAST.

CCU has had a better season than us, their "do-it-all" QB has performed better than ours, and our coach has admitted we're not a good football team right now.

Like I said, if we limit turnovers we'll probably win. But just because we have beat them with Vince Redd and Rashad Jennings at Williams doesn't mean we'll beat them with Paco Varol and Aldreakis Allen at Williams.

This is going to be a long day for LU fans if we start making mistakes, tho. Hillary is going to pick us apart if we don't change up our scheme. I really don't see a way this is any kind of "long day" for CCU. They've been the better team this year!

[bjtheflamesfan]

THere is a reason that they are called trends though...and remember also all that info I posted came from our resident scribe (so I hope youre not questioning his credibility and dismissing it as "Rah Rah Rah" fanboyism). As Ive said twice already, if the Liberty team that has routinely curbstomped conference foes when they come into Williams Stadium comes out of that locker room Saturday, then of course its going to be a long day for the visitors. If the Liberty team that showed up against JMU and Lehigh shows up, then there will be some very somber Liberty fans leaving the stadium Saturday night.