Sagarin ratings

[Skjellyfetti]

Not that this means anything at all. They're definitely interesting...

His computer is a big fan of the CAA. 6 of the top 7.

Computer also isn't sold on Georgia Southern's hot streak at the end of last year.


61 Villanova
74 Appalachian State
82 William & Mary
83 New Hampshire
84 Delaware
88 James Madison
89 Richmond
91 Montana
93 Eastern Washington
98 Northern Iowa
102 Massachusetts
106 Wofford
107 Georgia Southern
109 Southern Illinois
112 Elon
115 South Dakota State
120 North Dakota State
122 Furman
125 Northern Arizona
126 South Alabama
128 Weber State
129 Montana State
132 Pennsylvania
134 Jacksonville State
135 Maine
137 Cal Poly-SLO
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AZGrizFan]

Not that this means anything at all. They're definitely interesting...

His computer is a big fan of the CAA. 6 of the top 7.

Computer also isn't sold on Georgia Southern's hot streak at the end of last year.


61 Villanova
74 Appalachian State
82 William & Mary
83 New Hampshire
84 Delaware
88 James Madison
89 Richmond
91 Montana
93 Eastern Washington
98 Northern Iowa
102 Massachusetts
106 Wofford
107 Georgia Southern
109 Southern Illinois
112 Elon
115 South Dakota State
120 North Dakota State
122 Furman
125 Northern Arizona
126 South Alabama
128 Weber State
129 Montana State
132 Pennsylvania
134 Jacksonville State
135 Maine
137 Cal Poly-SLO
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Garbage in, garbage out. No WAY Montana should be that high, and no way EWU is that low. EWU has a ton returning and beat 3 of the teams ahead of them in this listing. I do like where MSU is, though. And the Bison.

[SuperHornet]

What I like:

My two teams are next to each other.
CM's crew IMMEDIATELY jumped over NMSU on joining FBS.

What I DON'T like:

My two teams are down so far.

[Thumper 76]

SUCK IT LAKES I think his head will explode when he sees SDSU AND UNI ahead of the Thundering Turd

[AZGrizFan]

SUCK IT LAKES I think his head will explode when he sees SDSU AND UNI ahead of the Thundering Turd

And SIU.

[houndawg]

SUCK IT LAKES I think his head will explode when he sees SDSU AND UNI ahead of the Thundering Turd

And SIU.

Eleven places behind, probably about how they'll finish the year...

[houndawg]

SUCK IT LAKES I think his head will explode when he sees SDSU AND UNI ahead of the Thundering Turd

And SIU.

Eleven places behind, probably about how they'll finish the year...

[Tribal]

So much for the Slumbelt & MAC. I can see what some FCS fans want their schools to go to those conferences...would probably win it in their first FBS season.

[OL FU]

Not that this means anything at all. They're definitely interesting...

His computer is a big fan of the CAA. 6 of the top 7.

Computer also isn't sold on Georgia Southern's hot streak at the end of last year.


61 Villanova
74 Appalachian State
82 William & Mary
83 New Hampshire
84 Delaware
88 James Madison
89 Richmond
91 Montana
93 Eastern Washington
98 Northern Iowa
102 Massachusetts
106 Wofford
107 Georgia Southern
109 Southern Illinois
112 Elon
115 South Dakota State
120 North Dakota State
122 Furman
125 Northern Arizona
126 South Alabama
128 Weber State
129 Montana State
132 Pennsylvania
134 Jacksonville State
135 Maine
137 Cal Poly-SLO
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I am never been a big fan of Sag but their pre-season rankings are laughable.

South Alabama - is that really possible?

[bluehenbillk]

I don't think anyone explain the term graduation or exhausted eligibility to Sagarin, how could Villanova be ranked #1 in FCS but yet the coaches & media have them 7th in the CAA??

Montana ahead of EWU is laughable too. This is why I wipe my sphincter with the GPI.

[tampajag]

Not that this means anything at all. They're definitely interesting...

His computer is a big fan of the CAA. 6 of the top 7.

Computer also isn't sold on Georgia Southern's hot streak at the end of last year.


61 Villanova
74 Appalachian State
82 William & Mary
83 New Hampshire
84 Delaware
88 James Madison
89 Richmond
91 Montana
93 Eastern Washington
98 Northern Iowa
102 Massachusetts
106 Wofford
107 Georgia Southern
109 Southern Illinois
112 Elon
115 South Dakota State
120 North Dakota State
122 Furman
125 Northern Arizona
126 South Alabama
128 Weber State
129 Montana State
132 Pennsylvania
134 Jacksonville State
135 Maine
137 Cal Poly-SLO
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I am never been a big fan of Sag but their pre-season rankings are laughable.

South Alabama - is that really possible?

I don't really know what to make of South Alabama at this point

[Dukie95]

I'm normally a big Sagarin fan, but I don't get where those numbers are coming from. It's not even like those are last year's end-of-season rankings.

It takes a few weeks into the season for it to start to make sense, but that's a very odd starting point.

[Aho Old Guy]

NC A&T -- 'King of the Hobos'

I bet Coach Broardway is sweating bullets - no where to go but up for that bunch. Hope he can turn it around for 'em.

[EWURanger]

Meh, whatever.....I just think it's funny we're one spot above Washington State.

[ewudood]

LOL thank god polls don't mean squat in the FCS.

[BDKJMU]

Preseason polls and rankings, be they computer or human are as worthless at tits on a bull, because all they have nothing to go off of except for last season.

As far as the Sagarin, its fucking retarded to release it before the mid point of the season because there's not enough data. Actually, for that matter, its fucking retarded to have any national poll, human or computer, before the mid point of the season.

I'll grant that Phil Steele is the least worthless of the bunch (Coaches, Sports Network, AGS, CS, various magazines, Sagarin, etc) because at least that guy has done his homework in a major way.

[GoAgs72]

In using the Sagarin ratings comparing teams and with a three point advantage for the home team, I get UC Davis as 6-5 for the season which is what I predicted early on and with the same wins and losses.

Just for fun, but here they are:

Sagarin Rating Ranking W/L Massey Rating Ranking
UC Davis 53.77 (150) 0.914 (157)
Arizona State 78.79 (34) Loss 2.142 (19)
Montana State 57.78 (129) Loss 1.049 (140)
San Diego 43.16 (201) Win 0.111 (325)
Hawaii 70.65 (63) Loss 1.744 (59)
Humboldt St NR NR (assume win) 0.579 (214)
UTSA 40.80 (213) Win -0.343 (462)
South Dakota 48.79 (176) Win 0.783 (183)
Southern Utah 53.26 (153) Loss 1.072 (137)
Cal Poly 56.08 (137) Win(very close, home field wins) 0.882 (161)
North Dakota 50.19 (165) Win 0.742 (194)
Sac State 55.51 (55.51) Loss 1.206 (157)


Sagarin: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Massey: http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[rebla 49er]

GUYS



The Sagarin Ratings, if you READ what he writes, are conjecture until the season starts, and the all teams can be mapped onto one another.

The Sagarin Ratings (the predictor) anyway includes score outcome and is used by many people in Vegas for setting game lines.

Phil Steele.....well he is mostly just making a fun magazine that hypes people for the season. He makes a few dimes off college football's passion. Nothing expertly, but nothing criminal either.

[rebla 49er]

If only that were true!!! The FCS selection committee uses a number of polls including the Coaches Poll to select at-large teams for the playoffs. Thank goodness for auto-bids. I hear the Ivy League is coming for theirs in 2015.

[Skjellyfetti]

The FCS selection committee uses a number of polls including the Coaches Poll to select at-large teams for the playoffs.

No they don't. Committee chair said in an online chat after selections that they do not use ANY poll when selecting seeds or at large team. They construct their own "poll"

[ODUalum11]

I agree with some of the posters who mentioned it above that these ratings right now dont mean much of anything until the actual season starts and Sagarin actually has some numbers to base his ratings on. I've heard these ratings are like the BCS rankings and that they dont mean squat until the actual season starts and even until we're half way through it.

[rebla 49er]

agree with some of the posters who mentioned it above that these ratings right now dont mean much of anything until the actual season starts and Sagarin actually has some numbers to base his ratings on

As far as I know, he admits his preseason index is not valid. But he needs a starting point for the early games.

Sagarin is a smart guy -- for example, he lists ELO CHESS during the year, which is a very simplistic chess rating system based upon how often you are expected to beat a certain opponent. He makes notes to his readers that it is not to be used as the most realistic representation, but that it is politically correct because it only includes wins and losses (excludes the actual score whether 77-0 or 3-2).

Sagarin's ratings are used in the BCS as one of the 5 "computer" rankings. His ratings are widely referenced; he is paid by the BCS and USA Today for publishing rights. There is no reason to place any stock in his preseason ratings, yet you see all kinds of people taking them as authoritative in the way that his Predictor is authoritative in week 14.

[BDKJMU]

agree with some of the posters who mentioned it above that these ratings right now dont mean much of anything until the actual season starts and Sagarin actually has some numbers to base his ratings on

As far as I know, he admits his preseason index is not valid. But he needs a starting point for the early games.

Sagarin is a smart guy -- for example, he lists ELO CHESS during the year, which is a very simplistic chess rating system based upon how often you are expected to beat a certain opponent. He makes notes to his readers that it is not to be used as the most realistic representation, but that it is politically correct because it only includes wins and losses (excludes the actual score whether 77-0 or 3-2).

Sagarin's ratings are used in the BCS as one of the 5 "computer" rankings. His ratings are widely referenced; he is paid by the BCS and USA Today for publishing rights. There is no reason to place any stock in his preseason ratings, yet you see all kinds of people taking them as authoritative in the way that his Predictor is authoritative in week 14.

If he was that smart he would keep his early season poll to himself. Releasing a pre season ranking with no datafor this season that he admits is invalid then tarnishes his late season rankings which, with a few exceptions, I think aren't bad.

[cats2506]

The FCS selection committee uses a number of polls including the Coaches Poll to select at-large teams for the playoffs.

No they don't. Committee chair said in an online chat after selections that they do not use ANY poll when selecting seeds or at large team. They construct their own "poll"

while they may do that, the selection rules say that the coaches poll and the tsn poll is available to them.

[alvin kayak]

If he was that smart he would keep his early season poll to himself. Releasing a pre season ranking with no datafor this season that he admits is invalid then tarnishes his late season rankings which, with a few exceptions, I think aren't bad.

You're not making any sense. Sagarin explains all this at the top of the page. You're ignoring what he has written instead of ignoring his preseason rankings like you should.