Next major shift in College Football

[rebla 49er]

This IS huge. You see -- if Texas A&M goes to the SEC, then the conference will (99% certain) add at least a 14th team. They would most likely want a team from the ACC (Clemson or Virginia Tech or Florida State), so that Texas A&M would go the SEC West, and the ACC team would go to the SEC East. The SEC will only add teams if there is conference balance in the divisions. The current members do not want to get shifted away from their existing division-mates.

If the SEC goes to 16 teams, this will very likely precipitate future changes. The Big Ten and/or the Pac-12 may look to go to 16, as well. At the very least, the ACC and Big 12 will look to pick up future teams. The Big 12 could be down to 8 teams, and the ACC could be down to 9.

[clenz]

Ultimately what I see happening will bring us right back to where we started before all of the moves...or very close too.


There will be 4 major conferences...basically a South East Conference, North East Conference, Midwest Conference, Western Conference.


Within those conferences there will be 2 divisions....

Those divisions will end up looking much like the conference land scape now...ish...by the time all is said and done.

We will end up with an "upgraded" version of what we have now.

[rebla 49er]

You see -- I'm not *totally* sold on there being 4 superconferences yet. I think Kansas State & Iowa State would be more likely to pull the top MWC and CUSA teams into the Big 12 before a complete evaporation of that league. The Big East now has TCU -- Kansas may join and get them 10 teams. The ACC may pull teams yet. All we can really say I think is that the SEC will probably be the first superconference (at this PT).

[ODUalum11]

You then have to think about the smaller conferences....I dont think conferences like the (CUSA, Big East, MWC, etc.) will just let their conferences get blown up. The power conferences will pick off teams from those conferences and then those conferences will pick off teams from smaller conferences below them. In other words, this is a ripple affect and we will IMO see changes go as low as FCS teams unexpectedly getting invitations to FBS conferences. I wouldn't be surprised in the very least. A team like JMU, Montana, or other FCS programs could get invitations sooner than expected. Heck, maybe even a school like GSU could get an invitation since they already play in an NFL stadium and have new facilities. And I will actually agree with clenz that we will just have an "upgraded" version of what we have now. Plus could this lead to an actual playoff in the FBS? There are reports starting to surface again about that being a possibility.

[∞∞∞]

Yeah I think six teams changing conferences was very little compared to what ESPN, message boards, and social media outlets made it out to be. It seemed like the whole landscape of NCAA athletics was about to shift last summer and then in the end, not much of a dent was made other than the WAC being screwed, and no one cares about the WAC anyways.

[clenz]

At this point I'm expecting the top level of the FCS to be fair game to be picked in the next two years...and even if the funding is quite there I think most of the programs will make a jump because everyone else is.

I see UD, Nova, JMU, App St., GS, UNI, SIU, ISUr (only because they will not turn down an invite from any conference), Missouri State (only because they won't turn down an invite of any kind), NDSU (because they won't turn down an invite of any kind), Montana, Montana State, and maybe a couple other schools all have some very serious options coming up in the next two years.


The BCS teams will run and do their own thing, the current top level of the FCS will join with the bottom of the FBS and create the "new FBS", the rest of the FCS will add the top D2's and form some D2/FCS hybrid.

[clenz]

Yeah I think six teams changing conferences was very little compared to what ESPN, message boards, and social media outlets made it out to be. It seemed like the whole landscape of NCAA athletics was about to shift last summer and then in the end, not much of a dent was made other than the WAC being screwed, and no one cares about the WAC anyways.

Short term last year didn't mean "much"....look at what it is doing at this point though. Because of those moves, and Texas getting their own network, there is a very real posiblity the FBS landscape could be blown up in the next 4 years or so

[∞∞∞]

Yeah I think six teams changing conferences was very little compared to what ESPN, message boards, and social media outlets made it out to be. It seemed like the whole landscape of NCAA athletics was about to shift last summer and then in the end, not much of a dent was made other than the WAC being screwed, and no one cares about the WAC anyways.

Short term last year didn't mean "much"....look at what it is doing at this point though. Because of those moves, and Texas getting their own network, there is a very real posiblity the FBS landscape could be blown up in the next 4 years or so

Like I said, I'll believe it when I see it. I'm personally done speculating.

[ODUalum11]

Short term last year didn't mean "much"....look at what it is doing at this point though. Because of those moves, and Texas getting their own network, there is a very real posiblity the FBS landscape could be blown up in the next 4 years or so

Like I said, I'll believe it when I see it. I'm personally done speculating.

Trust me, the biggest domino right now is TAMU. They get approved to move to the SEC and that will be the beginning of the end. The SEC doesn't make sense having 13 teams so they will definitely invite a 14th and then most likely over time (maybe not this year) try to move to 16 teams. To me, there was quite a bit of realignment last summer. I didn't expect all of this to happen during one summer but rather over time. In the end, the biggest hurdle right now is TAMU and their invitation to the SEC.

And Clenz, thats a great point and one I didnt realize and thats this might even go as low as D2 teams being invited to FCS.

Not to sound biased, but I think ODU is another school to look at to get invitations to a FBS conference except I don't see it happening because the ODU Administration is in no rush to make a move to jeopardize the program quite yet and I think a lot of ODU fans feel the same way. Much rather being successful consistently at the FCS and then try to see where that takes us. Right now we have the facilities to make a move. We possibly have one of the nicest football practice facilities in the entire FCS, the school will actually be holding some NCAA Championships in the upcoming years (Field Hockey and Women's basketball 1st and 2nd rounds), and ODU has the donors to make a move possible as our donation numbers are actually higher than some FBS (ECU) and even some BCS teams (South Florida, Cincy). The only complication of course would be the size of Foreman Field. In other words, ODU moving to the FBS is a possibility but its just a question of when in the distant future.

[rebla 49er]

The negative for ODU is that there are several other programs in-state that are better positioned for an FBS invite:

1. Richmond
2. James Madison
3. William & Mary

There may be more. By the time, the FBS cargo has been shipped, it may be too late for ODU. I have exactly the same feeling about the 49ers football program. It's too late of a start. Everybody demands you play at a certain D-I level before they consider you worthy of an invitiation.

I think the SOCON is probably in the best position of every conference for stability. The CAA teams are all scared of being the FCS team left out of the parade.

[∞∞∞]

The negative for ODU is that there are several other programs in-state that are better positioned for an FBS invite:

1. Richmond
2. James Madison
3. William & Mary

Everybody demands you play at a certain D-I level before they consider you worthy of an invitiation.

[ODUalum11]

The negative for ODU is that there are several other programs in-state that are better positioned for an FBS invite:

1. Richmond
2. James Madison
3. William & Mary

There may be more. By the time, the FBS cargo has been shipped, it may be too late for ODU. I have exactly the same feeling about the 49ers football program. It's too late of a start. Everybody demands you play at a certain D-I level before they consider you worthy of an invitiation.

I think the SOCON is probably in the best position of every conference for stability. The CAA teams are all scared of being the FCS team left out of the parade.

Are you talking strictly on field success with those three programs? Because I don't see Richmond or WM going anywhere soon. I think WM is perfectly content with staying in the CAA as long as it stays intact. WM fans on this board can correct me if I'm wrong and I also think the same with Richmond. The way their oncampus facility is built it allows for it be expanded but I don't see them doing that anytime soon. JMU is the only school I'll agree with 100% on. Either way, it looks like the one CAA program that has the best chance of moving up right away is Villanova. However I do realize their stadium is a concern at the moment just like ODU if they eventually get the opportunity. It's going to be interesting to see just how ODU expands Foreman Field regardless if its because of an FBS conference invitation or not. With the exception of on-field success and JMU, I don't see how you think Richmond and WM are in better position right now. Correct me if I'm wrong, ODU has the bigger fan and donor base, better facilities across the board in addition to football, and an administration that is committed to seeing the school grow both academically and athletically not saying that other schools don't. In fact here is a recent Q&A with AD Wood Selig and a couple notable quotes....

… Part of our strategic plan calls for us to increase revenue 10 percent annually each of the next five years. That's going to be a challenge because football's sold out, (men's) basketball is 700 shy of selling out every game. We don't intend to raise prices and gouge people, so we're going to make sure we get the corporate community involved, make sure we expand our Old Dominion Athletic Foundation footprint and attract new donors and those who want to support some of our capital initiatives.

Number two, we need to do a 3-5 year strategic plan for athletic facilities in general. Just as we did a strategic plan for athletics overall last fall, we want to launch an in-depth analysis of all of our athletic facilities. We want a 3-5 year plan for baseball, for soccer, for Title IX, for football — S.B. Ballard Stadium, where are we going, relative to capacity? We'd like by the end of this year to have a pretty good handle on where we want our athletic facilities to be in the next 3-5 years. That being said, with many of our athletic facilities there's not a whole lot of room for improvement or a lot of need.

That last part is because a lot of our current facilities have been renovated over the last several years...obviously Foreman Field and the Powhatan Sports Complex (Home of Football, Field Hockey and Lacrosse), The Ted Center and soon to be a connected practice facility, new rowing center, new wrestling facilities next to the athletic admin building. Golf has their own on-campus golf course. Both tennis teams play in a spectacular in-door/out-door tennis facility that rivals some of the nicest on-campus college tennis facilities across the country. That leaves only Soccer and Baseball left to be improved on. Only sport I'm not sure about is sailing.

Selig: Number one, we've just started fund-raising for the basketball practice facility, and we want to move forward with that. … It's an $8 million facility, and our initial fund-raising efforts have gone very well. When you think about top-25 programs in men's and women's basketball, they all have one thing in common: a really nice practice facility.

http://www.dailypress.com/sports/dp-spt ... feedburner" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Everybody demands you play at a certain D-1 level before they consider you worthy? Tell that to UTSA. Haven't played a down yet and their already invited to a FBS conference.

[rebla 49er]

My previous post was very poorly-worded. First of all, I meant to say "there MIGHT be other in-state" schools in a better position to receive an FBS invite. In other words, I don't think it's a clear cut case that they are the top FCS program in the state of Virginia from an FBS marketing standpoint. Second, I meant to say "they require you play a certain number of years before joining". Even that was poorly-stated as I meant more broadly that the relative newness of the program likely would count against it.

But....you guys know that if ODU moves up, you'll have to find a new message board, right?

[rebla 49er]

There will be 4 major conferences...basically a South East Conference, North East Conference, Midwest Conference, Western Conference.

If that happens, they may leave the NCAA entirely for football and start playoffs. That's one rumor, anyway. They wouldn't have to give a dime to the NCAA for advertising. Just think about how much money a 32-team or 16-team FBS playoff would bring in. Holy cow.

[ODUalum11]

My previous post was very poorly-worded. First of all, I meant to say "there MIGHT be other in-state" schools in a better position to receive an FBS invite. In other words, I don't think it's a clear cut case that they are the top FCS program in the state of Virginia from an FBS marketing standpoint. Second, I meant to say "they require you play a certain number of years before joining". Even that was poorly-stated as I meant more broadly that the relative newness of the program likely would count against it.

But....you guys know that if ODU moves up, you'll have to find a new message board, right?

Oh okay, well there have been thoughts that if either JMU or ODU did get invited niether one would leave without taking the other. Not sure where people have come up with that but it does make sense somewhat because it would provide whatever conference with geographic stability as well as another conference rivalry. I think ODU-JMU rivalry is inevitable for football as well. ODU-JMU is already pretty heated in other sports such as Women's basketball and Field Hockey and when JMU men's basketball was a consistent contender in the CAA I heard JMU-ODU was a great rivalry in men's basketball as well. Also I think ODU is the perfect case in regards to the marketing standpoint. Unlike Charlotte for example there is no professional team or other major college or university to deal with and Hampton Roads is home to millions of people. Thats part of why ODU has had 14 consecutive sellouts in its first two years of football and will only increase.

Lastly, I think you are right about the x number of playing years but thats in regards to the CAA. I think the CAA will require both ODU and GSU to be in the conference for at least 5 years before considering any sort of conference change. I think if ODU wanted to go straight to FBS there would be no problem doing that since thats what UTSA is doing and even possibly Charlotte correct?

As for moving up and this message board, I'd still post here frequently.

[SuperHornet]

Ultimately what I see happening will bring us right back to where we started before all of the moves...or very close too.


There will be 4 major conferences...basically a South East Conference, North East Conference, Midwest Conference, Western Conference.


Within those conferences there will be 2 divisions....

Those divisions will end up looking much like the conference land scape now...ish...by the time all is said and done.

We will end up with an "upgraded" version of what we have now.

While I agree with rebla that I'm not sold on the four regional conference concept, in the event, I'm not sure it'll work out quite like you imagine. Superconferences split into two divisions will be too unwieldy because the divisions will be too big. I think it would be much more likely that they'll look like the NFL did back in the '60s: the overall organization will be known as a "league," divided into two conferences, each of which will be divided into two divisions. They'll probably have to figure out some sort of playoff schedule to make it work. And the only way I can see to make that work is to do something we've all figured on happening anyway: the B(C)$ schools break from the NCAA.

Perhaps I'm a bit cynical, but that's the logical end of the superconference concept, at least in my mind. And I don't like it one little bit.

[clenz]

How would a 16 team conference split into 2 divisions be too big to work?

Each division plays their 7 other teams, and the two division winners play for the conference title...you know just like the B12, SEC, ACC has done for a while, and how the PAC12 and B1G will do now...

[T-Dog]

Liberty is more ready for an FBS move than W&M or Richmond and would be up there with JMU and ODU if not for the fact that an FBS conferences would be weary of them due to the stigma. Their best bet would be the apply for a waiver to move up as an indy in football.

[clenz]

Liberty is more ready for an FBS move than W&M or Richmond and would be up there with JMU and ODU if not for the fact that an FBS conferences would be weary of them due to the stigma. Their best bet would be the apply for a waiver to move up as an indy in football.

Good luck.

BYU has had issues with conference accepting their views...and Falwell was more out there than BYU was.

[SuperHornet]

How would a 16 team conference split into 2 divisions be too big to work?

Each division plays their 7 other teams, and the two division winners play for the conference title...you know just like the B12, SEC, ACC has done for a while, and how the PAC12 and B1G will do now...

For such a schedule to be believeable, a team would have to play at least a COUPLE of schools in the other division. That would make at least nine conference games, thereby leaving only two or three OOC games (depending on a 11- or 12-game schedule). Most schools won't go for that. It would be much better (IMO) to have four divisions. The idea is more applicable for hoops than football given the home-and-home concept. For football, I'd like to see three intra-division games, two cross-conference, and two cross-league games, which would still allow for four or five OOC games.

[alvin kayak]

The conferences are going to retain their usual divisional play. I don't know how the exact schedule is gonna work or even if there'll be a conference title game. I believe that some playoff is a logical next stop. Plus one or plus six.

[clenz]

How would a 16 team conference split into 2 divisions be too big to work?

Each division plays their 7 other teams, and the two division winners play for the conference title...you know just like the B12, SEC, ACC has done for a while, and how the PAC12 and B1G will do now...

For such a schedule to be believeable, a team would have to play at least a COUPLE of schools in the other division. That would make at least nine conference games, thereby leaving only two or three OOC games (depending on a 11- or 12-game schedule). Most schools won't go for that. It would be much better (IMO) to have four divisions. The idea is more applicable for hoops than football given the home-and-home concept. For football, I'd like to see three intra-division games, two cross-conference, and two cross-league games, which would still allow for four or five OOC games.

Is that not how it works now?

Iowa State played Texas last season...ISU was North and Texas was South. Florida played LSU, Michigan will play Ohio State, etc...

Play 8 conference games with 3 or 4 OOC games...thats the way it runs now.

[tampajag]

As the Big 12 pushed to keep Texas A&M, the Southeastern Conference presidents were set to talk about bringing the Aggies on board.

Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe and the conference's Board of Directors discussed the future of the conference and Texas A&M's possible departure during a teleconference Saturday.

"The board strongly conveyed to Texas A&M its unanimous desire that it remain a Big 12 member, and acknowledged its value to the conference," the Big 12 said in a statement released late Saturday night. "The other nine members reaffirmed their long term, unconditional and unequivocal commitments made to each other and the conference last summer."

http://www.ajc.com/sports/uga/big-12-tr ... 06816.html

[ODUalum11]

As the Big 12 pushed to keep Texas A&M, the Southeastern Conference presidents were set to talk about bringing the Aggies on board.

Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe and the conference's Board of Directors discussed the future of the conference and Texas A&M's possible departure during a teleconference Saturday.

"The board strongly conveyed to Texas A&M its unanimous desire that it remain a Big 12 member, and acknowledged its value to the conference," the Big 12 said in a statement released late Saturday night. "The other nine members reaffirmed their long term, unconditional and unequivocal commitments made to each other and the conference last summer."

http://www.ajc.com/sports/uga/big-12-tr ... 06816.html

TAMU's relationship with UTexas must be really soar if that is the main reason they are leaving the Big 12 for the SEC. Part of me can't blame them though because when the Longhorns launch their network it will pretty suffocate every other FBS school in the state. No body will be able to compete with that and will give the Longhorns a huge edge in numerous areas. However, good luck to TAMU. They were barely competitive in the Big 12 against additional schools like Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, etc. Good luck in the SEC if this is passed. They are throwing themselves to the wolves of college football.

[tampajag]

As the Big 12 pushed to keep Texas A&M, the Southeastern Conference presidents were set to talk about bringing the Aggies on board.

Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe and the conference's Board of Directors discussed the future of the conference and Texas A&M's possible departure during a teleconference Saturday.

"The board strongly conveyed to Texas A&M its unanimous desire that it remain a Big 12 member, and acknowledged its value to the conference," the Big 12 said in a statement released late Saturday night. "The other nine members reaffirmed their long term, unconditional and unequivocal commitments made to each other and the conference last summer."

http://www.ajc.com/sports/uga/big-12-tr ... 06816.html

TAMU's relationship with UTexas must be really soar if that is the main reason they are leaving the Big 12 for the SEC. Part of me can't blame them though because when the Longhorns launch their network it will pretty suffocate every other FBS school in the state. No body will be able to compete with that and will give the Longhorns a huge edge in numerous areas. However, good luck to TAMU. They were barely competitive in the Big 12 against additional schools like Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, etc. Good luck in the SEC if this is passed. They are throwing themselves to the wolves of college football.

they really just seem like a jilted lover looking for attention. They took two losses to the SEC West last season. I wish em luck. I have a sweet spot in my heart for the Aggies.