Dems pick up deep red NY-26

[TwinTownBisonFan]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43161820/ns ... itol_hill/

In a special House election carefully watched by national political strategists, Democrat Kathy Hochul won what had been a Republican seat Tuesday in upstate New York, lifting Democrats’ hopes for the 2012 campaign.

As her campaign’s centerpiece, Hochul attacked changes in the Medicare program proposed by House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan.

That's one...

[TwinTownBisonFan]

The GOP's assault on Medicare was THE issue of this campaign... this one is on Paul Ryan.

[bulldog10jw]

The GOP's assault on Medicare was THE issue of this campaign... this one is on Paul Ryan.

Sure it is. I guess we can count on him losing his own district then.

This was won by Dims doing what they do best. Scaring senior citizens. Good job.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

The GOP's assault on Medicare was THE issue of this campaign... this one is on Paul Ryan.

Sure it is. I guess we can count on him losing his own district then.

This was won by Dims doing what they do best. Scaring senior citizens. Good job.

Ryan is in a safe seat... but it's HIS plan that Hochul teed off on.

call it "scaring seniors" if you'd like - but the conks assault on Medicare cost them a seat. Unless they change course... it won't be the last.

[Grizalltheway]

The GOP's assault on Medicare was THE issue of this campaign... this one is on Paul Ryan.

Sure it is. I guess we can count on him losing his own district then.

This was won by Dims doing what they do best. Scaring senior citizens. Good job.

Yeah, as opposed to conks scaring mindless fucks into believing Dems will take away their guns and let gays annul their marriages.

[bulldog10jw]

Sure it is. I guess we can count on him losing his own district then.

This was won by Dims doing what they do best. Scaring senior citizens. Good job.

Yeah, as opposed to conks scaring mindless **** into believing Dems will take away their guns and let gays annul their marriages.

I'm proud. A reply from you to a thread without....but Bush.....but Bush....but Bush. Progress.

[bulldog10jw]

Sure it is. I guess we can count on him losing his own district then.

This was won by Dims doing what they do best. Scaring senior citizens. Good job.

Ryan is in a safe seat... but it's HIS plan that Hochul teed off on.

call it "scaring seniors" if you'd like - but the conks assault on Medicare cost them a seat. Unless they change course... it won't be the last.

Maybe. But maybe Corwin was a weak candidate. I know you're hoping, but one race proves little. Didn't the Dims win a couple of special elections in 2009, then get blown out in 2010?

[Bronco]

She doesn't live in the district so couldn't vote for herself.

legal...just need to live in the state but I thought that was interesting.

[Baldy]

The GOP's assault on Medicare was THE issue of this campaign... this one is on Paul Ryan.

...and a lifelong Donk posing as the Tea Party candidate had absolutely nothing to do with it.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

The GOP's assault on Medicare was THE issue of this campaign... this one is on Paul Ryan.

...and a lifelong Donk posing as the Tea Party candidate had absolutely nothing to do with it.

It was a safe GOP seat - if they A) had their shit together and B) hadn't been outmessaged they should have won the race in a walk... even with other candidates in the race... this shouldn't have been close - but the conks are eating significant shit for going after Medicare.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Ryan is in a safe seat... but it's HIS plan that Hochul teed off on.

call it "scaring seniors" if you'd like - but the conks assault on Medicare cost them a seat. Unless they change course... it won't be the last.

Maybe. But maybe Corwin was a weak candidate. I know you're hoping, but one race proves little. Didn't the Dims win a couple of special elections in 2009, then get blown out in 2010?

Actually, special elections are usually a good bellweather. not always... especially in safe seats... but when a safe seat flips parties (like happened in NY-26) it should cause the GOP some pause...

[Ivytalk]

...and a lifelong Donk posing as the Tea Party candidate had absolutely nothing to do with it.

It was a safe GOP seat - if they A) had their **** together and B) hadn't been outmessaged they should have won the race in a walk... even with other candidates in the race... this shouldn't have been close - but the conks are eating significant **** for going after Medicare.

OK, brainiac, why don't you come up with a coherent plan of entitlement reform?

I forgot.... the Donks don't have one!!

[AZGrizFan]

Maybe. But maybe Corwin was a weak candidate. I know you're hoping, but one race proves little. Didn't the Dims win a couple of special elections in 2009, then get blown out in 2010?

Actually, special elections are usually a good bellweather. not always... especially in safe seats... but when a safe seat flips parties (like happened in NY-26) it should cause the GOP some pause...

How did you respond when Brown won his (safe donk) seat in Massachusetts?

[89Hen]

How did you respond when Brown won his (safe donk) seat in Massachusetts?

Scared silence.

[AZGrizFan]

How did you respond when Brown won his (safe donk) seat in Massachusetts?

Scared silence.

Yeah. I went back and looked at the "Game Day" thread when Brown was elected and TTBF was nowhere to be found.

[GannonFan]

Maybe. But maybe Corwin was a weak candidate. I know you're hoping, but one race proves little. Didn't the Dims win a couple of special elections in 2009, then get blown out in 2010?

Actually, special elections are usually a good bellweather. not always... especially in safe seats... but when a safe seat flips parties (like happened in NY-26) it should cause the GOP some pause...

Special elections that are more statewide are good bellweathers - sometimes - but it's pretty hard to state that a special election in a single Congressional districy is a bellweather. Being a partisan, of course it will seem to be a bellweather, but in reality it's just one of many, many races with plenty of individuality about it.

[GSUAlumniEagle]

This isn't something to be totally ignored, but it's not that big of a deal. It's an isolated special election for crying out loud. The GOPer in the race wasn't that strong of a candidate, either.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... more-10715" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[D1B]

Scared silence.

Yeah. I went back and looked at the "Game Day" thread when Brown was elected and TTBF was nowhere to be found.

Jesus Z, get a life. You went back!?

[Ivytalk]

This isn't something to be totally ignored, but it's not that big of a deal. It's an isolated special election for crying out loud. The GOPer in the race wasn't that strong of a candidate, either.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... more-10715" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And there was the typical New York State GOP fratricide to boot. This election is a harbinger of precisely nothing.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Actually, special elections are usually a good bellweather. not always... especially in safe seats... but when a safe seat flips parties (like happened in NY-26) it should cause the GOP some pause...

How did you respond when Brown won his (safe donk) seat in Massachusetts?

I don't think i was posting at the time actually...

and I do recall what I was saying at the time - Mass. Dems got what they deserved in picking a TERRIBLE candidate and assuming the seat was owed to them.

[AZGrizFan]

How did you respond when Brown won his (safe donk) seat in Massachusetts?

I don't think i was posting at the time actually...

and I do recall what I was saying at the time - Mass. Dems got what they deserved in picking a TERRIBLE candidate and assuming the seat was owed to them.

And you don't think that just MIGHT be posssible here? And not some mandate by conservative NY voters?

[AZGrizFan]

Yeah. I went back and looked at the "Game Day" thread when Brown was elected and TTBF was nowhere to be found.

Jesus Z, get a life. You went back!?

Says the guy who goes back and finds/posts everything I ever said about Palin about 3 x a week.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

This isn't something to be totally ignored, but it's not that big of a deal. It's an isolated special election for crying out loud. The GOPer in the race wasn't that strong of a candidate, either.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... more-10715" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And there was the typical New York State GOP fratricide to boot. This election is a harbinger of precisely nothing.

In an R+6, even if you combine the two conk candidates, their percentage would be 5 points BELOW typical GOP performance... THAT is not a good indicator for the GOP... losing the seat in and of itself is only part of the story.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

I don't think i was posting at the time actually...

and I do recall what I was saying at the time - Mass. Dems got what they deserved in picking a TERRIBLE candidate and assuming the seat was owed to them.

And you don't think that just MIGHT be posssible here? And not some mandate by conservative NY voters?

The problem for the conks is that their overall turnout was 5% below RPI (Republican Performance Index) THAT is what should be worrying them.

[bulldog10jw]

The problem for the conks is that their overall turnout was 5% below RPI (Republican Performance Index) THAT is what should be worrying them.

Turnout is not likely to be a problem in 2012 with a chance to boot the Incompetant-In-Chief