Early 2011 CAA Prognostications

[LUMBERJACK!]

x

[BDKJMU]

The team I'd watch out for next year is URI - they return a whole bunch and unlike JMU, they actually had some big wins this past year. Rhode Island's going to be a tough out next year.

Sure URI had some nice wins this past yr. JMU didn't have any big wins last yr? So beating a ranked I-A for only the 2nd time in history by a I-AA in 200 some games wasn't big? Beating then #1 W&M wasn't big? So those weren't big wins in your world?

[89Hen]

Order of finish:

Delaware
W&M
UMass
Richmond
UNH
Villanova
Maine
URI
ODU
Towson
JMU

Ok, I see this is similar to you naming your pre season top 10 being all CAA teams. Funny.

Why is this funny? JMU is looking at 0-8 CAA this fall.

[∞∞∞]

Why is this funny? JMU is looking at 0-8 CAA this fall.

JMU will probably beat us; a lot of teams will probably beat us.

[PenthouseClosedEnd]

I have to think W&M is front-runner going into the season, with a number of other teams a notch below.

Why are you guys so high on Umass?

[GannonFan]

The team I'd watch out for next year is URI - they return a whole bunch and unlike JMU, they actually had some big wins this past year. Rhode Island's going to be a tough out next year.

Sure URI had some nice wins this past yr. JMU didn't have any big wins last yr? So beating a ranked I-A for only the 2nd time in history by a I-AA in 200 some games wasn't big? Beating then #1 W&M wasn't big? So those weren't big wins in your world?

Both those wins were proven to be flukes - Va Tech coming off the Boise St loss with only a handful of days to play a team they certainly paid no attention to and the win against W&M was just the exposure of the fact that W&M couldn't defend against a dedicated running game (proven later when GSU ran all over them). If that's what you're hanging your hat on for the year coming up then things are even more desperate down in Harrisonburg than we realized. Again, still no offensive line and no QB - JMU ain't winning without those two areas being strengths and they aren't strengths.

[GannonFan]

I have to think W&M is front-runner going into the season, with a number of other teams a notch below.

Why are you guys so high on Umass?

I agree with that, although W&M isn't as much of a front runner coming into the year than nova was coming into this past year and look how that turned out. I do agree, not sure why UMass is so highly regarded - they lose a ton of key players from a team that wasn't much better than .500.

[PenthouseClosedEnd]

Seeing that Shoop has left W&M makes me modify my thinking a bit. The league is wide open next year.

I think Richmond can contend next year, but it will probably be 2012 before we have the pieces in place to win a Conference Title and make a deep NCAA run.

[mcveyrl]

Sure URI had some nice wins this past yr. JMU didn't have any big wins last yr? So beating a ranked I-A for only the 2nd time in history by a I-AA in 200 some games wasn't big? Beating then #1 W&M wasn't big? So those weren't big wins in your world?

Both those wins were proven to be flukes - Va Tech coming off the Boise St loss with only a handful of days to play a team they certainly paid no attention to and the win against W&M was just the exposure of the fact that W&M couldn't defend against a dedicated running game (proven later when GSU ran all over them). If that's what you're hanging your hat on for the year coming up then things are even more desperate down in Harrisonburg than we realized. Again, still no offensive line and no QB - JMU ain't winning without those two areas being strengths and they aren't strengths.

The OL I'll give you. Although I think their main issue is consistency, most will have a year under their belt and I'm optimistic there will be improvement.

On the QB front, I'm assuming our front-runner for the QB job was the Offensive Freshman of the Year last year, so I'm more than a little optimistic. But there are obvious durability concerns. Should those come to light, it's '09 all over again...blech. Having said that, Dudzik was making horrible decisions whenever he passed (and on the option reads halfway through the year), so maybe even the rsFr. (whoever it is) will be a marked improvement. Not really counting on that, though.

All that side, I think 89Hen's main point is prognostications in Jan. '11 are fun to do, but nothing to get worked up about. Hell, he might be right on with his predictions, who knows??

Scratch that, his main point was to rile those that like to get worked up about it. His secondary, implicit point was the above.

And I'm not big into prognostications even in August or before league play begins, but I agree with most that the CAA is wide open with W&M probably being the January favorite.

[mainejeff]

With Cosgrove still at the helm (not) leading the Black Bears.......you can pencil in Maine for last place for the foreseeable future.

[GannonFan]

With Cosgrove still at the helm (not) leading the Black Bears.......you can pencil in Maine for last place for the foreseeable future.

On the bright side, Towson is still in the league so that tends to keep Maine out of the cellar.

[89Hen]

All that side, I think 89Hen's main point is prognostications in Jan. '11 are fun to do, but nothing to get worked up about. Hell, he might be right on with his predictions, who knows??

Scratch that, his main point was to rile those that like to get worked up about it. His secondary, implicit point was the above.

We need some newbies here.

[andy7171]

Chris Hart(QB) got kicked off the team with two weeks left in the '10 season. The true Freshman, Peter Athens, that started in 7 games of the '09 season was red shirted last year.
The freshman and sophomores that started all over the field last year, will be a year stronger and wiser.

I'm not saying we're playoff bound, but I'm confident we won't be going 1-10 again.

Word is Ambrose is bring in a recruiting class that includes players from Florida, Texas and California.

[GannonFan]

Word is Ambrose is bring in a recruiting class that includes players from Florida, Texas and California.

Not exactly a good indication that he's doing a better job of recruiting in VA, MD, DE, PA, and NJ - some farily fertile recruiting territory there.

But yes, I don't think Towson will be as bad as last year. But it's a real slow climb from where they are.

[andy7171]

Word is Ambrose is bring in a recruiting class that includes players from Florida, Texas and California.

Not exactly a good indication that he's doing a better job of recruiting in VA, MD, DE, PA, and NJ - some farily fertile recruiting territory there.

But yes, I don't think Towson will be as bad as last year. But it's a real slow climb from where they are.

It is an indication that there is more money being pumped into the programs though. In Gordy's last years he had to have 75% be from Maryland and could only recruit NJ, DE, NY, PA and VA. It worked in the PL years but when we moved up to the CAA and 63 schoilarships, he was left with a PL recruting budget.

[BDKJMU]

The team I'd watch out for next year is URI - they return a whole bunch and unlike JMU, they actually had some big wins this past year. Rhode Island's going to be a tough out next year.

Sure URI had some nice wins this past yr. JMU didn't have any big wins last yr? So beating a ranked I-A for only the 2nd time in history by a I-AA in 200 some games wasn't big? Beating then #1 W&M wasn't big? So those weren't big wins in your world?

Both those wins were proven to be flukes - Va Tech coming off the Boise St loss with only a handful of days to play a team they certainly paid no attention to and the win against W&M was just the exposure of the fact that W&M couldn't defend against a dedicated running game (proven later when GSU ran all over them). If that's what you're hanging your hat on for the year coming up then things are even more desperate down in Harrisonburg than we realized. Again, still no offensive line and no QB - JMU ain't winning without those two areas being strengths and they aren't strengths.

You claimed that JMU didn’t have any big wins last season, I pointed out you were wrong, and now you try to put a bunch of caveats saying VT was this when they played JMU, W&M was that, blah, blah.

1st of all W&M was ranked #1 in Nov when JMU beat them, not some BS pre season or Sept poll.

The VT win (in the state of VA simply because it was VT, and nationally because VT and Boise each won their next 11 and 10 straight and JMU kept getting mentioned about every week on ESPN, etc whenever those 2 came up all the way through the Orange Bowl) will do more for JMU than the 04’ NC did, and more than any future NC would. If you don’t think that was a big win for JMU, then you’re delusional.

Whatever happens this year for JMU is doesn’t change the fact that those were BIG wins for JMU, esp the VT win.

[BDKJMU]

Sure URI had some nice wins this past yr. JMU didn't have any big wins last yr? So beating a ranked I-A for only the 2nd time in history by a I-AA in 200 some games wasn't big? Beating then #1 W&M wasn't big? So those weren't big wins in your world?

Both those wins were proven to be flukes - Va Tech coming off the Boise St loss with only a handful of days to play a team they certainly paid no attention to and the win against W&M was just the exposure of the fact that W&M couldn't defend against a dedicated running game (proven later when GSU ran all over them). If that's what you're hanging your hat on for the year coming up then things are even more desperate down in Harrisonburg than we realized. Again, still no offensive line and no QB - JMU ain't winning without those two areas being strengths and they aren't strengths.

As far as the o-line, saying JMU "still no offensive line" because they weren't very good last year would as ridiculous as me saying this past pre season that UD "still no offensive line" because they weren't very good the previous year. And as we saw, UD's o-line went from being not very good 09', returned 4 starters, made a huge improvement, and were probably the 2nd best O-line in the CAA next to Nova.

JMU's o-line returns 4 starters (3 who will be bigger and no longer so young & inexperienced) and barring something like last season (losing 2 senior starters for the season in Aug) will see a big improvement. Not saying they will be top 2 CAA, but it won't be a case of as you put it "no o-line".

As far as you put it "no QB" you may be right, or you may be wrong. No one on here or anywhere will know till Sept.

[GannonFan]

Both those wins were proven to be flukes - Va Tech coming off the Boise St loss with only a handful of days to play a team they certainly paid no attention to and the win against W&M was just the exposure of the fact that W&M couldn't defend against a dedicated running game (proven later when GSU ran all over them). If that's what you're hanging your hat on for the year coming up then things are even more desperate down in Harrisonburg than we realized. Again, still no offensive line and no QB - JMU ain't winning without those two areas being strengths and they aren't strengths.

As far as the o-line, saying JMU "still no offensive line" because they weren't very good last year would as ridiculous as me saying this past pre season that UD "still no offensive line" because they weren't very good the previous year. And as we saw, UD's o-line went from being not very good 09', returned 4 starters, made a huge improvement, and were probably the 2nd best O-line in the CAA next to Nova.

JMU's o-line returns 4 starters (3 who will be bigger and no longer so young & inexperienced) and barring something like last season (losing 2 senior starters for the season in Aug) will see a big improvement. Not saying they will be top 2 CAA, but it won't be a case of as you put it "no o-line".

As far as you put it "no QB" you may be right, or you may be wrong. No one on here or anywhere will know till Sept.

You guys lost your best OL from this past year in Sherman, and the other 4 guys coming back will be a senior, a junior, and two sophomores. UD was bringing back 5 upperclassmen who had all played together for multiple years when they made the big improvement last year. If you're really looking for a similar improvement, hey, more power to you. For the rest of us without purple blinders on, we'll still keep JMU's question marks on the OL as one of the reasons not to pick them as a contender this year.

[BDKJMU]

As far as the o-line, saying JMU "still no offensive line" because they weren't very good last year would as ridiculous as me saying this past pre season that UD "still no offensive line" because they weren't very good the previous year. And as we saw, UD's o-line went from being not very good 09', returned 4 starters, made a huge improvement, and were probably the 2nd best O-line in the CAA next to Nova.

JMU's o-line returns 4 starters (3 who will be bigger and no longer so young & inexperienced) and barring something like last season (losing 2 senior starters for the season in Aug) will see a big improvement. Not saying they will be top 2 CAA, but it won't be a case of as you put it "no o-line".

As far as you put it "no QB" you may be right, or you may be wrong. No one on here or anywhere will know till Sept.

You guys lost your best OL from this past year in Sherman, and the other 4 guys coming back will be a senior, a junior, and two sophomores. UD was bringing back 5 upperclassmen who had all played together for multiple years when they made the big improvement last year. If you're really looking for a similar improvement, hey, more power to you. For the rest of us without purple blinders on, we'll still keep JMU's question marks on the OL as one of the reasons not to pick them as a contender this year.

The biggest improvements with any multiple year starters are generally made from 1st year starting to 2nd year starting (in this case 3) and from from rFr to Soph (especially o-lineman)(in this case 2).

Expect
-improvement from the rising rSr (will be 3rd yr starting, but only 2nd yr at center)
-improvement from the rising rJr (will be 2nd yr starting)
-huge improvement from the 2 rising rSo (both 2nd yr starting)
-big drop off at the 5 position (replacing a 4 yr starting rSr with a 1st yr starter)

Varying degrees of improvement at 4 positions all playing together for their 2nd yr with a big dropoff at the 5th position is still reasonable to expect a big improvement overall *barring losing anyone in the offseason or to a season ending injury in Aug or Sept. Thats not having purple blinders on at all.

[PenthouseClosedEnd]

You guys lost your best OL from this past year in Sherman, and the other 4 guys coming back will be a senior, a junior, and two sophomores. UD was bringing back 5 upperclassmen who had all played together for multiple years when they made the big improvement last year. If you're really looking for a similar improvement, hey, more power to you. For the rest of us without purple blinders on, we'll still keep JMU's question marks on the OL as one of the reasons not to pick them as a contender this year.

The biggest improvements with any multiple year starters are generally made from 1st year starting to 2nd year starting (in this case 3) and from from rFr to Soph (especially o-lineman)(in this case 2).

Expect
-improvement from the rising rSr (will be 3rd yr starting, but only 2nd yr at center)
-improvement from the rising rJr (will be 2nd yr starting)
-huge improvement from the 2 rising rSo (both 2nd yr starting)
-big drop off at the 5 position (replacing a 4 yr starting rSr with a 1st yr starter)

Varying degrees of improvement at 4 positions all playing together for their 2nd yr with a big dropoff at the 5th position is still reasonable to expect a big improvement overall *barring losing anyone in the offseason or to a season ending injury in Aug or Sept. Thats not having purple blinders on at all.

How is the depth on the offensive line? Last year, a True Freshman got significant reps and players were being converted from other positions. It also doesn't appear that Offensive Line has been a big priority in the current recruiting class.

[BDKJMU]

The biggest improvements with any multiple year starters are generally made from 1st year starting to 2nd year starting (in this case 3) and from from rFr to Soph (especially o-lineman)(in this case 2).

Expect
-improvement from the rising rSr (will be 3rd yr starting, but only 2nd yr at center)
-improvement from the rising rJr (will be 2nd yr starting)
-huge improvement from the 2 rising rSo (both 2nd yr starting)
-big drop off at the 5 position (replacing a 4 yr starting rSr with a 1st yr starter)

Varying degrees of improvement at 4 positions all playing together for their 2nd yr with a big dropoff at the 5th position is still reasonable to expect a big improvement overall *barring losing anyone in the offseason or to a season ending injury in Aug or Sept. Thats not having purple blinders on at all.

How is the depth on the offensive line? Last year, a True Freshman got significant reps and players were being converted from other positions. It also doesn't appear that Offensive Line has been a big priority in the current recruiting class.

Last yr no true freshman played. There was talk of pulling the redshirt off of Matt Williams (from Cardinal O'Hara right outside of Philly, not far from Nova and where I live btw), but he kept his redshirt. I imagine it would have been pulled if a 3rd starter had been lost.

To answer your question, as far as experienced depth, there really is none. Sure if lost a couple of starters for the season early could be right back to where were last yr. But that's the case with most CAA schools- not any experience outside starting top 5.

-4 returning starters:

-4 Scholly non starters return (including a former walkon was on the 2 deep at times last season at OL, TE, and DT due to the numerous injuries and assuming is at least on a partial scholly now): 2 of them will be rFr, one rSo, and one rJr.

-2 walkons on the roster from last season (if neither has quit yet)

-4 Scholly newcomers, 3 out of HS (one of whom is listed as a 6'7", 255 DE, I'm willing to bet $ he is moved to OT) and one Transfer yet to be named- was a Rivals 2 star out of HS----- likely enrolling this fall. So no, OL recruiting looks like it has been somewhat of a priority for JMU.

I know who the transfer is, but I was informed on the condition that I not publicly divulge it. The school he was at was apparently refusing to release him from scholly, so apparently he was going somewhere else for the 2nd semester, maybe a JUCO, but that he would be enrolling and eligible in the fall. Person who informed me thinks he will be starting. We'll see.

-Probably will be 2-3 invited walkon OL. Could end up losing someone in the offseason (like one of the walkons). I suspect there will be 15-16 OL on the roster come Aug, doz on scholly."

It sounds like UR and JMU are in similar boats. Both lines lost a couple of would be starters for the season early, both graduated their best OL from last season, an All CAA, both return 4 starters and should be much improved barring early injuries.

[bluehenbillk]

Last yr no true freshman played. There was talk of pulling the redshirt off of Matt Williams (from Cardinal O'Hara right outside of Philly, not far from Nova and where I live btw), but he kept his redshirt. I imagine it would have been pulled if a 3rd starter had been lost.

Uh-oh you could be in my stomping grounds - where do u live now?

[BDKJMU]

Last yr no true freshman played. There was talk of pulling the redshirt off of Matt Williams (from Cardinal O'Hara right outside of Philly, not far from Nova and where I live btw), but he kept his redshirt. I imagine it would have been pulled if a 3rd starter had been lost.

Uh-oh you could be in my stomping grounds - where do u live now?

Glenolden

[bluehenbillk]

Uh-oh you could be in my stomping grounds - where do u live now?

Glenolden

Oh no, did you grow up there? Glenolden would make you an Interboro or Ridley guy if you went to HS there. I grew up in Media.

[89Hen]

I grew up in Media.

There was a great hockey shop in Media. Do you remember it?