Early 2011 CAA Prognostications

[bluehenbillk]

I group teams into 4 categories (no specific order within):

Title Contenders: William & Mary, Delaware, UMass

In Contention: New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Richmond, Villanova

Back in the Pack: James Madison, Old Dominion, Maine

Basement: Towson

Let's hear yours...

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Those who are in contention are contenders, are they not?

And how is Delaware a contender? They lose a LOT off their "#1 ranked" defense and of course Devlin. That hurts.

[89Hen]

My early prediction is this will be the most down year for the CAA since 2002.

I really don't see any powerhouse next year.

[dbackjon]

My early prediction is this will be the most down year for the CAA since 2002.

I really don't see any powerhouse next year.

So Towson has a chance?

[Silenoz]

My early prediction is this will be the most down year for the CAA since 2002.

I really don't see any powerhouse next year.

So Towson has a chance?

[BDKJMU]

I group teams into 4 categories (no specific order within):

Title Contenders: William & Mary, Delaware, UMass

In Contention: New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Richmond, Villanova

Back in the Pack: James Madison, Old Dominion, Maine

Basement: Towson

Let's hear yours...

Obviously you haven't paid attention to who has what coming back.

[SunCoastBlueHen]

I predict that couple of teams that didn't make the playoff last year will next season, while a couple of this past season's playoff teams will not. That's how it often seems to go...

[dbackjon]

I predict that couple of teams that didn't make the playoff last year will next season, while a couple of this past season's playoff teams will not. That's how it often seems to go...

Ironclad Predication!

[∞∞∞]

I expect a 2-6 CAA season, but does ODU have any chance whatsoever? I mean, most of our guys will be juniors, and we do have a senior quarterback with two years under his belt. Granted the competition was pretty measly, but ODU did prove it could at least play with W&M...which if I'm not mistaken did win the CAA crown last season. I'd love us to be in the playoffs, but overall we know patience needs to prevail.

[∞∞∞]

*double post*

[HenZoneNation]

Those who are in contention are contenders, are they not?

And how is Delaware a contender? They lose a LOT off their "#1 ranked" defense and of course Devlin. That hurts.

We have a strong team coming back next year. We lose Pat, Marcorelle, and our secondary. That hurts. However, we return 4/5 linemen, and ALL-American RB, our top two WR's, some super talented freshmen who red-shirted last year, and our front 7 will be stronger than it was last year. Sasek is a good young QB who had CAA starting experience. My concern is finding a pass rusher and replacing the secondary. Unless Sasek and Burns are a total bust at QB, we will have a fine year...2012 is lookin even better.

[BDKJMU]

For CAA playoff teams going by their 2 deep game notes from one of their playoff games. For other teams going from the game notes from when they played JMU (realize this will have changed some), starters returning:


Maine: -18: 10 offense, 8 defense, at QB return Smith
JMU:----18: 8 offense, 10 defense, at QB lose Dudzik
Towson-16: 9 offense, 7 defense, at QB return Hart
UR:-----15: 9 offense, 6 defense, at QB return Corp
UMass:-14: 6 offense, 8 defense, at QB lose Havens
W&M:--13: 7 offense, 6 defense, at QB return Paulus, lose Callahan
UD:-----12: 7 offense, 5 defense, at QB lose Devlin
Nova:--10: 5 offense, 5 defense, at QB lose Whitney
UNH:---10: 5 offense, 5 defense, at QB lose Toman
URI ??
ODU (I assume about everybody)

[BDKJMU]

Team that loses the most talent by far is Nova. Loses over 1/2 their starters from their 9-5/7-4 regular season, including:
-LT Ijalana: 1st team All CAA, consensus AA
-WR Szczur: would have been 1st team All CAA and consensus AA if he hadn't gotten injured
-LG Clouser: 1st team All CAA, AA
-LB Kirkland, 1st team All CAA, AA
-LB Thomas, 1st team All CAA
-QB Whitney, 2nd team All CAA
-S Maldonado, 2nd team All CAA
-RB Ball, 3rd team All CAA
-DT Weaver, 3rd team All CAA
-S Dempsey, 3rd team All CAA

[93henfan]

I don't see a huge dropoff for Delaware. We return almost the entire offense beside Devlin, and his likely replacement has already beaten JMU. Defensive backfield is certainly a concern, but I think we'll be OK. No reason not to challenge for the title again.

Did you account for convictions in the JMU totals?

Lastly, I'd like to know what URI has coming back. They seemed on the verge of being a really good team last year.

[bluehenbillk]

What teams return is always a barometer that you can use. However, you have to look at it sometimes that the returning starter wasn't very good at all & you'd rather lose him to graduation or have someone new beat him out. That's why honestly when post-season all-league teams come out I look at underclassmen on the list.

[BDKJMU]

I group teams into 4 categories (no specific order within):

Title Contenders: William & Mary, Delaware, UMass

In Contention: New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Richmond, Villanova

Back in the Pack: James Madison, Old Dominion, Maine

Basement: Towson

Let's hear yours...

I will save this thread and bump it in Nov. When JMU makes the playoffs you better have a thick skin.

[BDKJMU]

I don't see a huge dropoff for Delaware. We return almost the entire offense beside Devlin, and his likely replacement has already beaten JMU. Defensive backfield is certainly a concern, but I think we'll be OK. No reason not to challenge for the title again.

Did you account for convictions in the JMU totals?

Lastly, I'd like to know what URI has coming back. They seemed on the verge of being a really good team last year.

As of now there is one defensive starter facing charges. The court casse for that Dec incident has been continued to Feb 15 I think. Of course if anyone is found guilty of a felony they are likely kicked off the team, schollie revoked, maybe expelled from school. IF he or any other starter in the current incident is found guilty of a misdemeanor they are likely to face up to multi game suspensions in Sept. Sept JMU looks like will be opening at home with another lesser I-AA in lieu of UNC, followed by CCSU at home and @ Liberty. We'll see what happens.

[BDKJMU]

What teams return is always a barometer that you can use. However, you have to look at it sometimes that the returning starter wasn't very good at all & you'd rather lose him to graduation or have someone new beat him out. That's why honestly when post-season all-league teams come out I look at underclassmen on the list.

Not if they were 1st year starters, esp rFr, esp on the o-line. A yr of starting experience and another year in the weight room there is usually a big improvement. From a 1st yr starting rFr o-lineman to a 2nd yr starting rSo o-lineman there is usually a huge improvement. JMU had 2 1st yr starting rFr and a 1st yr starting rSo last season on the o-line last season.

[bluehenbillk]

Save the thread and your flash in the plan program that got to what 1 title game ever. Wins in the postseason are what teams play for...

[BDKJMU]

Save the thread and your flash in the plan program that got to what 1 title game ever. Wins in the postseason are what teams play for...

Quit trying to obfuscate & change the goalpost from your prediction that started this thread that JMU is going to finish in the bottom 1/3rd of the CAA to now talking about postseason wins.

[bluehenbillk]

Quit trying to obfuscate & change the goalpost from your prediction that started this thread that JMU is going to finish in the bottom 1/3rd of the CAA to now talking about postseason wins.

It's January, but no ducking at all - ask me today & I see JMU finishing no better than 8th this year & I've stated my reasons for it - simply put - outside of Towson & Maine, worst offense in the CAA.

[BDKJMU]

Quit trying to obfuscate & change the goalpost from your prediction that started this thread that JMU is going to finish in the bottom 1/3rd of the CAA to now talking about postseason wins.

It's January, but no ducking at all - ask me today & I see JMU finishing no better than 8th this year & I've stated my reasons for it - simply put - outside of Towson & Maine, worst offense in the CAA.

Uh, no, that would actually be outside of UR and Towson. Maine was 5th in Total Offense last season. CAA offenses last season:
TOTAL OFFENSE G Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Yds/G
----------------------------------------------------------------
1. Delaware............ 8 1226 2006 570 3232 5.7 26 404.0
2. Massachusetts....... 8 1216 1922 563 3138 5.6 24 392.2
3. Villanova........... 8 1448 1462 546 2910 5.3 30 363.8
4. William and Mary.... 8 1107 1706 536 2813 5.2 22 351.6
5. Maine............... 8 1015 1653 506 2668 5.3 18 333.5
6. New Hampshire....... 8 879 1760 558 2639 4.7 20 329.9
7. Rhode Island........ 8 1213 1320 546 2533 4.6 15 316.6
8. James Madison....... 8 1299 928 480 2227 4.6 14 278.4
9. Towson.............. 8 934 1230 516 2164 4.2 10 270.5
10.Richmond............ 8 960 969 478 1929 4.0 10 241.1
http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/St ... nfonly.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And it is possible to make a big improvement offensively from one season to the next- From 08' to 09' ring a bell for you? Like I said, we'll be revisting this post in Nov.

[89Hen]

Order of finish:

Delaware
W&M
UMass
Richmond
UNH
Villanova
Maine
URI
ODU
Towson
JMU

[GannonFan]

I don't see a huge dropoff for Delaware. We return almost the entire offense beside Devlin, and his likely replacement has already beaten JMU. Defensive backfield is certainly a concern, but I think we'll be OK. No reason not to challenge for the title again.

Did you account for convictions in the JMU totals?

Lastly, I'd like to know what URI has coming back. They seemed on the verge of being a really good team last year.

As of now there is one defensive starter facing charges. The court casse for that Dec incident has been continued to Feb 15 I think. Of course if anyone is found guilty of a felony they are likely kicked off the team, schollie revoked, maybe expelled from school. IF he or any other starter in the current incident is found guilty of a misdemeanor they are likely to face up to multi game suspensions in Sept. Sept JMU looks like will be opening at home with another lesser I-AA in lieu of UNC, followed by CCSU at home and @ Liberty. We'll see what happens.

And this is what JMU is reduced to - being glad that misdemeanor convictions won't hurt the team because the suspensions can happen over games that are easy wins anyway. What a great time to be a Duke!

But I agree with BHBK's post - JMU is miles away offensively from being a top notch CAA team next year. Still have issues at QB and still have a less than dominating OL. Without those two, JMU won't be a top 5 team in the CAA.

The team I'd watch out for next year is URI - they return a whole bunch and unlike JMU, they actually had some big wins this past year. Rhode Island's going to be a tough out next year.

[BDKJMU]

Order of finish:

Delaware
W&M
UMass
Richmond
UNH
Villanova
Maine
URI
ODU
Towson
JMU

Ok, I see this is similar to you naming your pre season top 10 being all CAA teams. Funny.