Playoff Bracket Simulation

[ebemiss]

Here are a couple bracket simulations. I used my overall ratings to decide the play-in games. Hit play again to run the tournament again.

Bracket scores only

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/jooml ... magic=1403" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

box score and player stats (takes a couple seconds longer to load)

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/jooml ... magic=1404" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[UNHWildCats]

Interesting...

These were my first two and after this I didnt get one UNH victory at the end...

99% of the time its the CAA winning it all... The Colonial And Appalachian League

[Skjellyfetti]

Damn. This has Coastal Carolina beating App a disturbing amount of the time. Everytime I click "play again" and it shows CCU winning... I want to punch my computer.

[AZGrizFan]

Damn. This has Coastal Carolina beating App a disturbing amount of the time. Everytime I click "play again" and it shows CCU winning... I want to punch my computer.

Well then their model is horribly flawed. Appy should roll Coastal by a minimum of 24.

[UNHWildCats]

Damn. This has Coastal Carolina beating App a disturbing amount of the time. Everytime I click "play again" and it shows CCU winning... I want to punch my computer.

Well then their model is horribly flawed. Appy should roll Coastal by a minimum of 24.

ya... how about the one I posted where Coastal beats Appy, SFA and Montana State....

[Neckfansince71]

I thought Coastal Carolina had to play one of the preliminary games against Western Illinois? This game does not show up in the brackets!!!! Thanks so much for the disrespect! You have no idea what rath the Necks are capable of bringing to an opponent!!!! But heck, people are still thinking about the 1-10 season from a year ago and saying, "no team can improve that much. No team can go from 1-10 to 7-4 and be a contender." Ask Purdue who could not shake the Necks, or NDst. or UNI, as them what they think about your projections!!!!!

jc

[Screamin_Eagle174]

You'd think a Leatherneck would have tougher skin.

[UNHWildCats]

I thought Coastal Carolina had to play one of the preliminary games against Western Illinois? This game does not show up in the brackets!!!! Thanks so much for the disrespect! You have no idea what rath the Necks are capable of bringing to an opponent!!!! But heck, people are still thinking about the 1-10 season from a year ago and saying, "no team can improve that much. No team can go from 1-10 to 7-4 and be a contender." Ask Purdue who could not shake the Necks, or NDst. or UNI, as them what they think about your projections!!!!!

jc

read what the person said he picked the opening round games using his overall ratings as the setup the FCS is using probably couldnt be duplicated exactly for the program... but feel free to go to the main page and run 100 sims of WIU vs Coastal and let us know who wins 51+ of them.

[Neckfansince71]

The leatherneck really comes from the fact that the Marines when battling the Tripoli Pirates wore leather collars to stop the initial slash that the were famous for way back then. A leatherneck can actually be found in the "Old Ironsides" museum in the Boston Navy Yard.

To be honest with you, I could give a rat's fat ass whan the simulation says! I know what the Necks are capable of! Guess I love tournament time!



jc

[UNHWildCats]

I thought Coastal Carolina had to play one of the preliminary games against Western Illinois? This game does not show up in the brackets!!!! Thanks so much for the disrespect! You have no idea what rath the Necks are capable of bringing to an opponent!!!! But heck, people are still thinking about the 1-10 season from a year ago and saying, "no team can improve that much. No team can go from 1-10 to 7-4 and be a contender." Ask Purdue who could not shake the Necks, or NDst. or UNI, as them what they think about your projections!!!!!

jc

read what the person said he picked the opening round games using his overall ratings as the setup the FCS is using probably couldnt be duplicated exactly for the program... but feel free to go to the main page and run 100 sims of WIU vs Coastal and let us know who wins 51+ of them.

never mind... i just ran it Coastal won 54 of the 100 sims.

[Neckfansince71]

Hey,

Sorry I did not read the fine print! And thanks for running the sim for me! Pretty sophisticated when you are almost 58 years old like I am. I will call down to Macomb and tell them to forget it, don't waste the money to fly down to South Carolina! The sim Necks says you do not even exist! NH, just for the record, I am not that sensitive! Just enjoying the chance to play on in the FCS Championship! WIU has been there before just like New Hampshire! It has truly been a great year for WIU after last year's struggles!



jc

[clenz]

I wish UNI would have shown up yesterday...

[Neckfansince71]

I think they were flat! Just did not have it early on. That is the way WIU played against SIU. the hit on your qb was something! Don't know how to explain it except the game is played by kids for the pleasure of us old people and things like this are bond to happen.

[clenz]

I think they were flat! Just did not have it early on. That is the way WIU played against SIU. the hit on your qb was something! Don't know how to explain it except the game is played by kids for the pleasure of us old people and things like this are bond to happen.

Agreed.


I can say with 100% certainty that was not the same team I've watched from weeks 4-11. It's like the coaches wanted it, but the players didn't...especially when WIU came out like they did, it just looked like we packed it in.

Nothing taken from WIU though. They came out with a heck of a game plan and worked it very well.

The tailgating and everything in WIU was awesome, too!

[Neckfansince71]

The fans I met from UNI were nothing but class! Even though Hanson Field gets a thumbs down from some as being archiac it still is a great place for college football, surrounded by campus buildings and fall leaves. Its time for a make over! Good luck to the Panthers! Fans outside the MVC have no idea how competitive it is until the playoffs! Go kick some butt!



jc

[clenz]

The fans I met from UNI were nothing but class! Even though Hanson Field gets a thumbs down from some as being archiac it still is a great place for college football, surrounded by campus buildings and fall leaves. Its time for a make over! Good luck to the Panthers! Fans outside the MVC have no idea how competitive it is until the playoffs! Go kick some butt!



jc

stlawson was telling me you are getting new turf and scoreboard next year? That will be a HUGE improvement. I think, from an outsider whose first trip to Macomb was yesterday, your big problem is...Macomb in general.

Random question, was the bulldog statue vandalized recently and not been cleaned up...or is that by design?

[Neckfansince71]

Unfortunately they let different groups decorate throughout the year! I saw it and wondered what the heck it all meant! Yes turf, a new score board, and new goal posts are on the way! The westside renovation has been drawn and is part of the capital campaign of 60 million, 65% of which they have raised without making it public. Macomb is Macomb! To be honest, I enjoyed going to school in the middle of no where, but wife really was looking for a trip to the burbs basically because she was raised outside of Peoria so that is exactly where we ended up! A happy wife is makes me happy for life!

jc

[Neckfansince71]

Unfortunately they let different groups decorate throughout the year! I saw it and wondered what the heck it all meant! Yes turf, a new score board, and new goal posts are on the way! The westside renovation has been drawn and is part of the capital campaign of 60 million, 65% of which they have raised without making it public. Macomb is Macomb! To be honest, I enjoyed going to school in the middle of no where, but wife really was looking for a trip to the burbs basically because she was raised outside of Peoria so that is exactly where we ended up! A happy wife is makes me happy for life!

jc

[Wincaps]

I filled out a bracket myself and even though I am a App State fan I have App State and Delaware in the title game.

[ebemiss]

Damn. This has Coastal Carolina beating App a disturbing amount of the time. Everytime I click "play again" and it shows CCU winning... I want to punch my computer.

I think if you run it multple times you'll see Coastal Carolina is most likely done after the 1st game and possibly in the first game. The numbers are so close between CCU and WIllinios it's truly a toss up. Here's a set of 25 tournaments someone ran on another site.
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I ran it 25 times. I had played with it before the final selections and had liked the outcome. Similar results. I would assume more trials would give more probability of higher repeatibility.
Of course there is no way of knowing if the inputs reflect what will happen. Final wins: W&M 9, App.St. 7, VU 4, Del 3, EW 2.
Semis appearance: W&M 15, App.St. 11, VU 9, Del 5, EW 3, NH 3, Woff 2, SFA 1, CCU 1.
Should run with other first round winners in the set of 16 to be more fair.
Interesting exercise.