Big Sky Playoff Teams in for sure?

[weberwildcat]

a. EWU is a lock for the playoffs and share for big sky title right now. they could/should be a seed if they win out, if MSU wins out then EWU should be a lock for a seed.

b. Weber has to win out to get in. Cant lose to MSU or NAU.
5-3 record vs DI with 1 quality win in #7 UM and no bad losses and 2 are FCS losses.
@MSU
@NAU
@Texas Tech

c. Does UM have to win out to get in? Beating UND and losing to MSU would be 6 DI wins.
5-3 vs DI (3 FCS losses)
North Dakota n MSU at home remaining
no bad losses

d. MSU is 6-2 vs DI with 2 games left, WSU and @ UM. Do they just need to win one?
Like EWU, they only have one FCS loss.


I believe all 4 of these teams have 1 win against a ranked team and none have 2.

[native]

a. EWU is a lock for the playoffs and share for big sky title right now. they could/should be a seed if they win out, if MSU wins out then EWU should be a lock for a seed.

b. Weber has to win out to get in. Cant lose to MSU or NAU.
5-3 record vs DI with 1 quality win in #7 UM and no bad losses and 2 are FCS losses.
@MSU
@NAU
@Texas Tech

c. Does UM have to win out to get in? Beating UND and losing to MSU would be 6 DI wins.
5-3 vs DI (3 FCS losses)
North Dakota n MSU at home remaining
no bad losses

d. MSU is 6-2 vs DI with 2 games left, WSU and @ UM. Do they just need to win one?
Like EWU, they only have one FCS loss.


I believe all 4 of these teams have 1 win against a ranked team and none have 2.

You make a good point that is often forgotten in the frenzy of pending post-season play, wildcat; namely, that D-1 wins and losses are what count towards at-large invitations.

As of today, Eastern Washington and Montana State are both 6-2 in D-1 play, while Montana and Weber State are 5-3. Weber is the only team among the top four to have eschewed lower division opponents.

[SuperHornet]

Hypothetical question: Does Weber get in if they lose to the Kitties but pull the upset of Tech?

[cats2506]

EWU - at 7-2 with 1 DII win they still need another win to be assured a playoff spot. With 6-1 in conference they need a loss by MSU and to win over ISU to get the BSC AQ. EWU probably has the easiest path to a playoff spot and the BSC AQ with games left with SUU and ISU. A seed is possible if they win out.

MSU - Also at 7-2 with a DII win they still need a win to be assured a playoff spot. If MSU can win out they get the BSC AQ since they hold the head to head over EWU. At 5-1 in conference they have a tough schedule left, at home this week against WSU and at UM after a bye week. A seed may be possible if they win out.

UM - at 6-3 overall and 5-3 in conference, with 1 DII win on the record they need to win out to be assured a playoff spot. They need EWU to lose to ISU and a win over MSU to get a share of the BSC title.

WSU at 5-3 overall and 4-2 in conference they have the toughest road to the playoffs. they need road wins over both MSU and NAU to make the playoffs. WSU is playing an all DI schedule including 2 FBS games, they finish the regular season against Texas Tech. They also need a loss by MSU and EWU to lose to ISU for a share of the BSC title.

[cats2506]

Hypothetical question: Does Weber get in if they lose to the Kitties but pull the upset of Tech?

Actually I think they could, I didn't seriously consider that possibility in my analysis, a loss to one of the BSC teams left on the schedule and a win over TT would give them 7 DI wins and should get them in.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Hypothetical question: Does Weber get in if they lose to the Kitties but pull the upset of Tech?

Of course they would, but that scenario isn't going to happen. Dollars to doughnuts.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

EWU - at 7-2 with 1 DII win they still need another win to be assured a playoff spot. With 6-1 in conference they need a loss by MSU and to win over ISU to get the BSC AQ. EWU probably has the easiest path to a playoff spot and the BSC AQ with games left with SUU and ISU. A seed is possible if they win out.

MSU - Also at 7-2 with a DII win they still need a win to be assured a playoff spot. If MSU can win out they get the BSC AQ since they hold the head to head over EWU. At 5-1 in conference they have a tough schedule left, at home this week against WSU and at UM after a bye week. A seed may be possible if they win out.

UM - at 6-3 overall and 5-3 in conference, with 1 DII win on the record they need to win out to be assured a playoff spot. They need EWU to lose to ISU and a win over MSU to get a share of the BSC title.

WSU at 5-3 overall and 4-2 in conference they have the toughest road to the playoffs. they need road wins over both MSU and NAU to make the playoffs. WSU is playing an all DI schedule including 2 FBS games, they finish the regular season against Texas Tech. They also need a loss by MSU and EWU to lose to ISU for a share of the BSC title.

Spot on.

[weberwildcat]

Hypothetical question: Does Weber get in if they lose to the Kitties but pull the upset of Tech?

Of course they would, but that scenario isn't going to happen. Dollars to doughnuts.

now thats a bold prediction. i bet chattanooga wont be auburn this week too!

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Of course they would, but that scenario isn't going to happen. Dollars to doughnuts.

now thats a bold prediction. i bet chattanooga wont be auburn this week too!

Hey, somebody has to beat down SH's dream world.

[weberwildcat]

now thats a bold prediction. i bet chattanooga wont be auburn this week too!

Hey, somebody has to beat down SH's dream world.

I would think if WSU lost to MSU and beat NAU and TT that we still might not make it.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Hey, somebody has to beat down SH's dream world.

I would think if WSU lost to MSU and beat NAU and TT that we still might not make it.

How so? Beating an FBS, especially a Big-12 would be a statement win on your record. Still at 7 D-I wins.

[Northcoast]

I think Weber got in last year at 7-4 right?

Also I think if EWU and MSU both win out MSU would get the seed considering the same record and the head to head blowout by MSU over EWU. (Not to mention the $$ that MSU would make the NCAA as oposed to EWU.) that was for all the griz fans

[mlbowl]

UM - at 6-3 overall and 5-3 in conference, with 1 DII win on the record they need to win out to be assured a playoff spot. They need EWU to lose to ISU and a win over MSU to get a share of the BSC title.

.

...Montana has 3 conference losses?...news to me.

[SuperHornet]

UM - at 6-3 overall and 5-3 in conference, with 1 DII win on the record they need to win out to be assured a playoff spot. They need EWU to lose to ISU and a win over MSU to get a share of the BSC title.

.

...Montana has 3 conference losses?...news to me.

The poor Kitty has "conveniently" forgotten that Cow Poly in the Big Sky doesn't happen for a year or two yet.

[weberwildcat]

I think Weber got in last year at 7-4 right?

Yes.
Weber 2009, 7-4 record.
Sep 5 @ Wyoming Laramie, WY L 29-22
Sep 12 @ Colorado State Fort Collins, CO L 24-23
Sep 19 Idaho State Ogden, UT W 44-17
Sep 26 @ Portland State Portland, OR W 36-29
Oct 3 Montana State Ogden, UT L 26-21
Oct 10 @ #14 Eastern Washington Cheney, WA W 31-13
Oct 17 Sac State (Homecoming) Ogden, UT W 49-10
Oct 24 @ Northern Colorado Greeley, CO W 28-20
Oct 31 @ #2 Montana Missoula, MT L 31-10
Nov 14 Northern Arizona Ogden, UT W 27-9
Nov 21 Cal Poly Ogden, UT W 47-14

[EWURanger]

I don't think anyone's a "lock" just yet. Lose the next two games, however unlikely, and we're done. A "w' against SUU a couple Saturdays from now will make me feel a whole lot better going into the ISU game.

[cats2506]

UM - at 6-3 overall and 5-3 in conference, with 1 DII win on the record they need to win out to be assured a playoff spot. They need EWU to lose to ISU and a win over MSU to get a share of the BSC title.

.

...Montana has 3 conference losses?...news to me.

just counting the game on the 20th a little early I guess

yeah, they are 6-3, 5-2 and still have to win out for any real consideration.

[Grizalltheway]

...Montana has 3 conference losses?...news to me.

just counting the game on the 20th a little early I guess

yeah, they are 6-3, 5-2 and still have to win out for any real consideration.

I don't think either fan base should be doing that at this point in our respective seasons.

[cats2506]

just counting the game on the 20th a little early I guess

yeah, they are 6-3, 5-2 and still have to win out for any real consideration.

I don't think either fan base should be doing that at this point in our respective seasons.

Obviously it wasn't intentional, but possibly subliminal

[putter]

I think Weber got in last year at 7-4 right?

Yes.
Weber 2009, 7-4 record.
Sep 5 @ Wyoming Laramie, WY L 29-22
Sep 12 @ Colorado State Fort Collins, CO L 24-23
Sep 19 Idaho State Ogden, UT W 44-17
Sep 26 @ Portland State Portland, OR W 36-29
Oct 3 Montana State Ogden, UT L 26-21
Oct 10 @ #14 Eastern Washington Cheney, WA W 31-13
Oct 17 Sac State (Homecoming) Ogden, UT W 49-10
Oct 24 @ Northern Colorado Greeley, CO W 28-20
Oct 31 @ #2 Montana Missoula, MT L 31-10
Nov 14 Northern Arizona Ogden, UT W 27-9
Nov 21 Cal Poly Ogden, UT W 47-14

I wonder if their poor showing against Bill and Mar last year would somehow count against them?

[SuperHornet]

I wonder if their poor showing against Bill and Mar last year would somehow count against them?

Officially, no way. Unconsciously or "under the table?" Perhaps....

[weberwildcat]

I wonder if their poor showing against Bill and Mar last year would somehow count against them?

Officially, no way. Unconsciously or "under the table?" Perhaps....

Well we have no reason to trust the committee do we? no. I think it could hurt WSU so then all you can say was you had a shot at the auto bid and pissed it away against EWU but beating both MSU and NAU might be too much for WSU or any other team.

[cats2506]

UPDATED

MSU - at 8-2 with a DII win they are the first BSC team to reach the needed 7 DI wins and have a playoff spot likely locked up. MSU also holds the head to head over EWU. At 6-1 in conference they can get the BSC AQ and a possible seed by beating UM in missoula in 2 weeks. MSU has a bye this week.

EWU - at 7-2 with 1 DII win they still need another win to be assured a playoff spot. With 6-1 in conference they need a loss by MSU at UM and to win over ISU to get the BSC AQ. EWU has a good path to a playoff spot and the BSC AQ with games left with SUU and ISU. A seed is possible if they win out.

UM - at 6-3 overall and 5-2 in conference, with 1 DII win on the record they need to win out to be assured a playoff spot. They need EWU to lose to ISU and a win over MSU to get a share of the BSC title.

WSU at 5-4 overall and 4-3 in conference they have win over FBS Tx Tech to get to 7 DI wins. WSU has played an all DI schedule

[putter]

I will be very interested to see what the committee does if this plays out:

1) EWU beats ISU (scenario below) get the AQ...they are in plus great shot for a seed

2) UM beast UND and MSU...with money talking they should get in and host, maybe have to play first round.

3) MSU loses to UM but has the resume and team to take an at-large from a CAA team --this is my wild card...will this happen and the committee lets MSU in over an eastern team?

[cats2506]

3) MSU loses to UM but has the resume and team to take an at-large from a CAA team --this is my wild card...will this happen and the committee lets MSU in over an eastern team?

Big IF's there but IF that all happens the Cats will still be in, the committee would have to pull a team with only 6 DI wins into the playoffs over MSU that would have 7 DI wins and only 2 FCS losses.

Sorry to burst you dream, but um cant knock us out of the playoffs.