October 24 Bracket Predictions

[DJH]

ttl, you are wrong about NDSU. Your claim that conference standings don't matter is not based in reality. It would be one thing if NDSU finished 5th and the 4 teams in front of them were playoff teams. But there is no way in hell that they would be picked when there are 3 or 4 NON playoff teams that finished ahead of them in the standings.

[ToTheLeft]

That would mean that 4 MVFC teams get in. That isn't going to happen.

NDSU will not make the playoffs at 7-4. 8-3 there is an outside shot. The fact of the matter is the best they can do is 4-4 in conference. UNI, WIU, ISUR, and SDSU are pretty much all guaranteed to get to 4 conference wins. The Valley will be a one bid league this year. Either UNI wins the league and that means second place finishes with three conference losses and at least 4 overall, or WIU beats UNI to win the autobid, that means every team in the conference, other than WIU, ends up at 4 losses.


NDSU doesn't get in. They won't pick a team that finished 4th or lower in a conference, and not pick the teams a head of them.

Wow. Whodathunkit? Clenz as the MVC voice of reason?

TTL, I rest my case. Or Clenz's case, so to speak.

It's not a case. It's bullshit.

Show me in the handbook where it says anything like that. I'll wait.

[Gil Dobie]

If Montana St or NAU end up with 4 losses, their DI record will be 6-4, and if NDSU ends up with 4 losses, they will be 7-4 vs DI opponents. Who does the committee take a 6 win or 7 win team?

Montana State won't have 4 losses. They'd have to lose 2 of 3 to Weber/ISU/Montana. Not happening.
NAU must win out to have 7, you are correct. But if they DO win out (and there's a very good chance of that), I think they're in as well. So now, who do you take, an 8-3 NAU team (with 7 D-I wins and only 2 conference losses) or a 7-4 NDSU team (with 7 D-I wins, four conference losses, but a I-A win)?

You take a 7-3 team over a 7-4 team without looking at conference games.

[DJH]

Wow. Whodathunkit? Clenz as the MVC voice of reason?

TTL, I rest my case. Or Clenz's case, so to speak.

It's not a case. It's bullshit.

Show me in the handbook where it says anything like that. I'll wait.

Its called the handbook of common sense.

[AZGrizFan]

Now you're just talking out of your ass..........when was the last time the Big Sky has sent only one team to the play-offs? Has it *ever* happened in the last 20 years?

No, there will be at least 2; probably 3 from the BSC.

The past doesn't matter. At all. Not one little itty bitty bit.

If Griz lose to Weber and UND, and then beat the Cats, they're not in.

The Cats would then need to beat Weber. If they don't, they're not in.

Then NAU beats Weber, and keeps Weber out, but loses another game, and NAU is out too.

EWU could easily lose to SUU, then a slip up at PSU, and they're out.

If all of those happen, or all but one, then the BSC is a 1 bid league. I doubt the Griz will lose against UND, but I could see Weber winning against The Cats, the Cats losing to Griz, NAU beating Weber, and NAU slipping up against, say, SAC, and all those teams being out. EWU as well, I can see them struggling, especially if something happened to TJ.

So all sorts of jerking off to the history books couldn't save the Big Sky from being a 1 team league if a couple teams crap the bed. And seeing this year unfold, it could happen that way.

Would I bet on it? No. But it could happen. And no amount of history changes that.

Jesus. Are you fucking serious? It COULD happen, but I've got a better chance of winning the fucking LOTTERY than that crazy-ass scenario happening. Griz losing to Weber AND UND??? Then NAU beating Weber but losing to someone else? EWU losing to SUU AND PSU???

You should take your meds. Your bias against the BSC is really showing through.

[ToTheLeft]

ttl, you are wrong about NDSU. Your claim that conference standings don't matter is not based in reality. It would be one thing if NDSU finished 5th and the 4 teams in front of them were playoff teams. But there is no way in hell that they would be picked when there are 3 or 4 NON playoff teams that finished ahead of them in the standings.

In my projection, it would be...

1. UNI 7-1
2. SDSU 6-2
3. WIU 5-3
4. NSDU 4-4
4. SIU 4-4
6 and below. Doesn't matter...

All the teams ahead of them are in the playoffs, in my projection.

Next.

[clenz]

WIU will not get in with a 5-3 conference record. That puts them at 7-4 and boarderline...or out with a 3rd place finish in the conference.
SDSU is boarder line at best with an overall of 7-4



The Valley will not get more than 2 this year. If the Valley gets four teams in the conference I will shit my pants.

[Gil Dobie]

WIU will not get in with a 5-3 conference record.

SDSU is boarder line at best with an overall of 7-4

SDSU is in at 7-4, not if's, an's or but's, 7-3 vs FCS with expanded playoffs, not to mentiona 7 game winning streak.

[ToTheLeft]

WIU will not get in with a 5-3 conference record.

SDSU is boarder line at best with an overall of 7-4

Who gets in ahead of them then? I'm taking WIU or xDSU over the winner over Furman/GSU, and over PFL teams, or a second MEAC, or another Patriot team, or a third OVC, etc.

Have you done a playoff projection? Have you looked at the selection for the last couple teams?

But I guess I'm dead wrong about the MVFC, and I'm biased against the Big Sky, even tho I have no dog in the fight.

Gotcha guys, all makes sense now.

[clenz]

The Valley will not get more than two teams in....period.

The way it is likely to play out UNI finishes at 8-3 and wins the auto. After that it looks like it will be 3 or 4 teams at 7-4. That would mean the Valley has no top, middle, and bottom teams. It would just look like the teams are equal and no team stands out and deserves to get in.

If WIU finishes at 5-3 in conference and SDSU finishes 6-2 the best the conference can hope for is UNI and SDSU.

[EWURanger]

Now you're just talking out of your ass..........when was the last time the Big Sky has sent only one team to the play-offs? Has it *ever* happened in the last 20 years?

No, there will be at least 2; probably 3 from the BSC.

The past doesn't matter. At all. Not one little itty bitty bit.

If Griz lose to Weber and UND, and then beat the Cats, they're not in.

The Cats would then need to beat Weber. If they don't, they're not in.

Then NAU beats Weber, and keeps Weber out, but loses another game, and NAU is out too.

EWU could easily lose to SUU, then a slip up at PSU, and they're out.

If all of those happen, or all but one, then the BSC is a 1 bid league. I doubt the Griz will lose against UND, but I could see Weber winning against The Cats, the Cats losing to Griz, NAU beating Weber, and NAU slipping up against, say, SAC, and all those teams being out. EWU as well, I can see them struggling, especially if something happened to TJ.

So all sorts of jerking off to the history books couldn't save the Big Sky from being a 1 team league if a couple teams crap the bed. And seeing this year unfold, it could happen that way.

Would I bet on it? No. But it could happen. And no amount of history changes that.

I think you're grasping a little here. Sure, any of your above scenarios could play out, I'll give you that - but a combination of them happening is probably unlikely. Also, history does matter, because when the selection committe looks at at-large bids they will always select an 8-3 or 7-4 Big Sky team over a team from a weaker conference. And while all of the top 3 BSC teams will not win out, it's a stretch to think that we'll be a one bid league this year.

Also, EWU has already played without Jones in basically what equates to 2 1/2 games, maybe more. He didn't play in the second half of the MSU game (which we lost), but we beat Weber without him playing a down and NAU where he played only in the first half. While I'll admit he saved our asses in the Northern Colorado and Sac State games, we can still win even without him.

[SDHornet]

My opinion is that the BSC gets at least 3 bids. Given that the GWFC champ won't be eligible for the playoffs (SUU is guaranteed at least a share of the GWFC title and won't have 7 D-I wins) this should open up another slot for the BSC.

*Yes I know the GWFC isn't an auto-bid conference, but with the added at-large berths, I would doubt their conference champ wouldn't get an invite if they have 7 D-I wins.

[AZGrizFan]

Wow. Whodathunkit? Clenz as the MVC voice of reason?

TTL, I rest my case. Or Clenz's case, so to speak.

It's not a case. It's bullshit.

Show me in the handbook where it says anything like that. I'll wait.

Show me ANY example where the committee has delved deep into a conference's alsorans to pick a mediocre 7-4 team for the playoffs simply becuase they beat a shitty Big XII team. Go ahead...I'll wait.

[SDHornet]

It's not a case. It's bullshit.

Show me in the handbook where it says anything like that. I'll wait.

Show me ANY example where the committee has delved deep into a conference's alsorans to pick a mediocre 7-4 team for the playoffs simply becuase they beat a shitty Big XII team. Go ahead...I'll wait.

[ToTheLeft]

Did you even read my projections? The top 4 in the MVFC go, because they're all qualified.

But whatever. Keep twisting words to get a laugh and prove your own point.

And who cares how bad the Big XII team is? And they did beat GT, but let's forget that to make a point, eh? No need for facts.

[clenz]

Did you even read my projections? The top 4 in the MVFC go, because they're all qualified.

But whatever. Keep twisting words to get a laugh and prove your own point.

And who cares how bad the Big XII team is? And they did beat GT, but let's forget that to make a point, eh? No need for facts.

Yep, that Kansas team that is getting outscored 38-16 is real impressive.....

I suppose that win is more impressive than the Ball State win...

[ToTheLeft]

Did you even read my projections? The top 4 in the MVFC go, because they're all qualified.

But whatever. Keep twisting words to get a laugh and prove your own point.

And who cares how bad the Big XII team is? And they did beat GT, but let's forget that to make a point, eh? No need for facts.

Yep, that Kansas team that is getting outscored 38-16 is real impressive.....

I suppose that win is more impressive than the Ball State win...

And more proof that you're ignoring facts, resorting to attacking my team.

Thanks guys, productive discussion.

[clenz]

Facts..ok

Kansas is ranked 132 in the Sagarin rankings...or behind 32 FCS teams...yep, Kansas wouldn't be a top 25 FCS teams in the computer rankings. Southern Utah and Missouri States are more impressive wins at this point going off of Sagarin...hell, Florida International is ahead of Kansas.

And, in case you were wondering Ball State is 159, just behind Murray State and Dayton

[SDHornet]

Facts..ok

Kansas is ranked 132 in the Sagarin rankings...or behind 32 FCS teams...yep, Kansas wouldn't be a top 25 FCS teams in the computer rankings. Southern Utah and Missouri States are more impressive wins at this point going off of Sagarin...hell, Florida International is ahead of Kansas.

And, in case you were wondering Ball State is 159, just behind Murray State and Dayton

[ToTheLeft]

Facts..ok

Kansas is ranked 132 in the Sagarin rankings...or behind 32 FCS teams...yep, Kansas wouldn't be a top 25 FCS teams in the computer rankings. Southern Utah and Missouri States are more impressive wins at this point going off of Sagarin...hell, Florida International is ahead of Kansas.

And, in case you were wondering Ball State is 159, just behind Murray State and Dayton

But the selection criteria for the playoffs specifically mentions FBS teams. Unless I'm sorely mistaken.

And using your same Sagarin, NDSU is 24th overall and would be squarely in the playoff discussion, especially since there are 6 teams ahead of them that are likely going to not get 7 DI wins or are named South Alabama.

[clenz]

NDSU isn't getting in if they finish 7-4....period.


8-3 there is an outside shot

[kalm]

TTL, let me help you out here for a moment.

The argument you really want to make is that Weber State is too good of a team to end the season with four straight losses. UM and MSU face each other and NAU cannot afford another loss. So if Weber picks off either of the Montanas and/or NAU then you've eliminated one team and possibly two.

But you also still have wild cards in NAU crapping its pants against Sac St. in Flagstaff and/or EWU crapping the pants in two of it's remaining three.

But a reminder to you is that both SAC and NAU haven't exactly crapped their pants when facing the three front runners of the conference and they are collectively 1-5.

So to sum it up, the conference might really be quite good overall, the top 4 might be playoff caliber good, and you are placing too much faith in pants crapping.

[ToTheLeft]

TTL, let me help you out here for a moment.

The argument you really want to make is that Weber State is too good of a team to end the season with four straight losses. UM and MSU face each other and NAU cannot afford another loss. So if Weber picks off either of the Montanas and/or NAU then you've eliminated one team and possibly two.

But you also still have wild cards in NAU crapping its pants against Sac St. in Flagstaff and/or EWU crapping the pants in two of it's remaining three.

But a reminder to you is that both SAC and NAU haven't exactly crapped their pants when facing the three front runners of the conference and they are collectively 1-5.

So to sum it up, the conference might really be quite good overall, the top 4 might be playoff caliber good, and you are placing too much faith in pants crapping.

Correct on Weber.

and I just couldn't bring myself to put MSU in. I was looking at their schedule and just couldn't do it, I didn't have faith that they'd win the games they need to win. NAU I'm not sold on by extension, since they're only win that really makes a statement is against the same MSU team I'm gunshy on.

If MSU comes out and wins their next game by a few scores on the road at ISU, then that will ease my mind on them and probably have 2 teams in my Big Sky at-large group, possibly 3 depending on other results. It all swings on every game.

[Gil Dobie]

It's not a case. It's bullshit.

Show me in the handbook where it says anything like that. I'll wait.

Show me ANY example where the committee has delved deep into a conference's alsorans to pick a mediocre 7-4 team for the playoffs simply becuase they beat a shitty Big XII team. Go ahead...I'll wait.

How many FCS schools have even beaten a shitty Big XII team?

[clenz]

Show me ANY example where the committee has delved deep into a conference's alsorans to pick a mediocre 7-4 team for the playoffs simply becuase they beat a shitty Big XII team. Go ahead...I'll wait.

How many FCS schools have even beaten a shitty Big XII team?

2007

UNI 24
Iowa State 13