October 24 Bracket Predictions

[ToTheLeft]

AQ's:
Montana (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)
William and Mary (CAA)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
UNI (MVFC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Jax St. (OVC)
Lehigh (Patriot)
Wofford (Southern)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At-Large:
EWU (Big Sky)
Nova, Delaware, UMass (CAA)
WIU, SDSU, NDSU (MVFC)
SEMO St. (OVC)
App St., Chatty (SoCon)

What a swing from my picks last week.

Seeds:
1. Wofford
2. Jax. St.
3. SFA
4. William and Mary
5. Delaware

Noticed you flipped us with Montana from last week. Is this due to an anticipated EWU loss or, if both finish 9-2, the NCAA/money/WAGRIZ ticket sales conspiracy? Would the committee reward a seed to a Montana finished tied ( record wise ), but second in the conference to EWU and having lost the h to h?

Anticipated loss @PSU. Not sure what EWU team you'll get any given week, and while PSU is nothing amazing, they're capable of winning if the Eags play like they did in the second half against Sac.

[webfan]

Only two Big Sky teams, Cmon!

[LeadBolt]

Only two Big Sky teams, Cmon!

Just one BSC team doesn't seem right...

[webfan]

We'll never live down that beating at W&M last year I guess.

[kalm]

Noticed you flipped us with Montana from last week. Is this due to an anticipated EWU loss or, if both finish 9-2, the NCAA/money/WAGRIZ ticket sales conspiracy? Would the committee reward a seed to a Montana finished tied ( record wise ), but second in the conference to EWU and having lost the h to h?

Anticipated loss @PSU. Not sure what EWU team you'll get any given week, and while PSU is nothing amazing, they're capable of winning if the Eags play like they did in the second half against Sac.

Yeah, it could be a tough one and I keep waiting for our mistakes to catch up with us one of these weeks. That being said, I also keep waiting for us to make a statement and blow somebody out. I think we have as much talent on both sides of the ball as anyone in the league, and without the mistakes, the NAU, UNC, and Sac games could have easily been 3 TD wins. One thing going for us against the Vikes is we've already seen the pistol with Nevada, and while we gave up 48 against them, 3 of those scores were influenced by short fields via special teams mistatkes and a turnover. At least we held them to less points than Cal.

The top five teams in the conference have enough talent to run the table. Weber has the toughest road to hoe. I think 3 BSC teams in the field is a very good possibility with an outside shot at 4.

[LeadBolt]

Time heals all things, by next year no one will remember.

[UNHWildCats]

So...UNI and SFA play for the second time this season?

I don't see the playoff committee doing that, at least not in a situation where neither team has to win to get to that game.

you're right, its unlikely they would be paired in their first game.

[UNHWildCats]

Only two Big Sky teams, Cmon!

Weber State has Montana, Montana State, Northern Arizona and TExas Tech remaining. two losses and they are out... I dont see them escaping that schedule and remaining at large eligible. I have Weber losing to Montana and Texas Tech

Northern Arizona can't lose, but I think Weber beats them eliminating them.

Montana State can only lose twice and I got Montana and Weber beating them

That leaves Montana and Eastern Washington as the only eligible teams. EWU wins the auto bid and Montana gets a at large.

Of course thats just how I see things unfolding.

[webfan]

I understand your logic now. But with the expanded playoffs I still figure the BSC gets three.

[ToTheLeft]

I understand your logic now. But with the expanded playoffs I still figure the BSC gets three.

Then say how. That's the issue with a lot of playoff discussion. The CAA probably deserves 5 or 6, but won't get it since they won't have enough teams with 7 wins. It's not just "oh this conference is good so they'll get teams in", it's a matter of finding teams with enough wins.

[webfan]

An unsophisticated basis maybe but there are five BSC teams in the Sagarin top 20.

[UNHWildCats]

An unsophisticated basis maybe but there are five BSC teams in the Sagarin top 20.

Yes, they have 5 quality teams, and all 5 can end as at-large eligible, but thats unlikely.

Eastern Washington: at Portland State, Southern Utah, Idaho State

Montana: at Weber State, North Dakota, Montana State

Montana State: Montana, at Idaho State, Weber State

Northern Arizona: Sacramento State, at Northern Colorado, Weber State, Portland State

Weber State: Montana, at Montana State, at Northern Arizona, at Texas Tech


Lets work through this. Lets assume Weber State wins out beside the Texas Tech game. That gets them eligible with 7-4 record. It also eliminates Northern Arizona.

Now Montana or Montana State are out based on their head to head matchup. In this scenario three teams would be eligible.

However I will stick yo my inital forecast of Weber beating Montana State and Northern Arizona and losing to Montana and Tech. I also predict Montana beats Montana State, that leaves the Big Sky with just two eligible teams.

[webfan]

You guys will catch someone who's just wingin it. I'm going to shut up on this suject!

[kalm]

I understand your logic now. But with the expanded playoffs I still figure the BSC gets three.

Then say how. That's the issue with a lot of playoff discussion. The CAA probably deserves 5 or 6, but won't get it since they won't have enough teams with 7 wins. It's not just "oh this conference is good so they'll get teams in", it's a matter of finding teams with enough wins.

Montana wins out or loses to MSU - 9-2 or 8-3
EWU wins out or loses @ PSU, SUU (home), ISU (home) 9-2 or 8-3
MSU wins out or loses to UM - 9-2 or 8-3
NAU wins out 8-3

NAU has three out of the last 4 at home including Weber. They will be favored in all of their remaining games.

EWU has 2 out the remaining 3 at home and will be favored in all three

MSU is at ISU, home for Weber, and @ UM. They will be favored in 2 out of 3

UM is at home for two of the last three and will be favored in all three.

[kalm]

An unsophisticated basis maybe but there are five BSC teams in the Sagarin top 20.

Yes, they have 5 quality teams, and all 5 can end as at-large eligible, but thats unlikely.

Eastern Washington: at Portland State, Southern Utah, Idaho State

Montana: at Weber State, North Dakota, Montana State

Montana State: Montana, at Idaho State, Weber State

Northern Arizona: Sacramento State, at Northern Colorado, Weber State, Portland State

Weber State: Montana, at Montana State, at Northern Arizona, at Texas Tech


Lets work through this. Lets assume Weber State wins out beside the Texas Tech game. That gets them eligible with 7-4 record. It also eliminates Northern Arizona.

Now Montana or Montana State are out based on their head to head matchup. In this scenario three teams would be eligible.

However I will stick yo my inital forecast of Weber beating Montana State and Northern Arizona and losing to Montana and Tech. I also predict Montana beats Montana State, that leaves the Big Sky with just two eligible teams.

I can see the rationale for two, but three is more likely.

[AZGrizFan]

AQ's:
Montana (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)
William and Mary (CAA)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
UNI (MVFC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Jax St. (OVC)
Lehigh (Patriot)
Wofford (Southern)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At-Large:
EWU (Big Sky)
Nova, Delaware, UMass (CAA)
WIU, SDSU, NDSU (MVFC)
SEMO St. (OVC)
App St., Chatty (SoCon)

What a swing from my picks last week.

Seeds:
1. Wofford
2. Jax. St.
3. SFA
4. William and Mary
5. Delaware

You are absolutely, positively smoking CRACK if you think only TWO of UM/MSU/EWU/NAU get in, while all FOUR of UNI/WIU/SDSU/NDSU get in. There is no fucking way on this PLANET the MVC is a 4-bid league.

[AZGrizFan]

Yes, they have 5 quality teams, and all 5 can end as at-large eligible, but thats unlikely.

Eastern Washington: at Portland State (W), Southern Utah (W), Idaho State (W)

Montana: at Weber State (W), North Dakota (W), Montana State (W)

Montana State: Montana (L), at Idaho State (W), Weber State (W)

Northern Arizona: Sacramento State (W), at Northern Colorado(W), Weber State (W), Portland State (W)

Weber State: Montana(L), at Montana State (L) at Northern Arizona (L), at Texas Tech (L)


Lets work through this. Lets assume Weber State wins out beside the Texas Tech game. That gets them eligible with 7-4 record. It also eliminates Northern Arizona.

Now Montana or Montana State are out based on their head to head matchup. In this scenario three teams would be eligible.

However I will stick yo my inital forecast of Weber beating Montana State and Northern Arizona and losing to Montana and Tech. I also predict Montana beats Montana State, that leaves the Big Sky with just two eligible teams.

Travis: There's a MUCH more likely possibilty that Weber LOSES out than wins out. Here's how I see it shaking out.

EWU wins out and gets the autobid.
Montana wins out and gets an At-Large
MSU wins out all but UM game
NAU wins out

We end up with 2 9-2 teams and 2 8-3 teams (Montana & EWU 7-1 in conference, NAU & MSU 6-2). Who does the committee leave out?

[ToTheLeft]

AQ's:
Montana (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)
William and Mary (CAA)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
UNI (MVFC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Jax St. (OVC)
Lehigh (Patriot)
Wofford (Southern)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At-Large:
EWU (Big Sky)
Nova, Delaware, UMass (CAA)
WIU, SDSU, NDSU (MVFC)
SEMO St. (OVC)
App St., Chatty (SoCon)

What a swing from my picks last week.

Seeds:
1. Wofford
2. Jax. St.
3. SFA
4. William and Mary
5. Delaware

You are absolutely, positively smoking CRACK if you think only TWO of UM/MSU/EWU/NAU get in, while all FOUR of UNI/WIU/SDSU/NDSU get in. There is no fucking way on this PLANET the MVC is a 4-bid league.

Again, show me how. I can show you how I got to this conclusion. You show me how you get to yours.

SDSU wins out, NDSU wins 2 of 3, WIU beats ISUred and SIU, and UNI wins out. All have at least 7 wins.

Montana State, who has been really weak lately, loses to Griz and Weber. NAU has to win out, and I really don't think they can. Sac, PSU, and Weber are possible places for them to fall, take your pick. And it could go either way, it could be 4 from the Big Sky and 2 from the MVFC, it's a matter of a couple games going either way. I picked it that way this week, I picked it opposite last week. But thanks for your, again, well thought out and reasoned analysis.

[EWURanger]

I wouldn't count on anyone winning out in the Big Sky this season......yesterday's games were won by a total combined 12 points between four different games. EWU had the largest margin of victory with 4 points! It's going to be more of the same the rest of the season, just watch.

There's still a lot of football to be played, and even now, I don't see any clear favorite to win the conference. Any of the top 5 or so can beat any other team, especially at home. Home field advantage is going to be the real difference maker down the stretch.

If EWU can escape with a win in Hillsboro next weekend, then I like our chances a little more. We'll have to play alot better than we have in the past 3 games to do that; I'm not totally convinced at this point. And even with the two remaining games after that at home, SUU is no joke and even ISU will be tough the last game of the year. There's really no break games in the Big Sky this year; it's basically coming down to who makes fewer mistakes. So far the top 3 teams have found ways to win those close ones, but I'm not sure how much longer that's going to last.

[freebird]

blah, blah, blah ... I picked it opposite last week. But thanks for your, again, well thought out and reasoned analysis.

Looking forward to next weeks well thought out and reasoned analysis.

[kalm]

You are absolutely, positively smoking CRACK if you think only TWO of UM/MSU/EWU/NAU get in, while all FOUR of UNI/WIU/SDSU/NDSU get in. There is no **** way on this PLANET the MVC is a 4-bid league.

Again, show me how. I can show you how I got to this conclusion. You show me how you get to yours.

SDSU wins out, NDSU wins 2 of 3, WIU beats ISUred and SIU, and UNI wins out. All have at least 7 wins.

Montana State, who has been really weak lately, loses to Griz and Weber. NAU has to win out, and I really don't think they can. Sac, PSU, and Weber are possible places for them to fall, take your pick. And it could go either way, it could be 4 from the Big Sky and 2 from the MVFC, it's a matter of a couple games going either way. I picked it that way this week, I picked it opposite last week. But thanks for your, again, well thought out and reasoned analysis.

So you're relying upon upsets in your predictions.

MSU is beat up but has a dangerous QB. NAU lost two close games on the road. The bottom half of the BSC is improving, but so is the top half.

[catbob]

I won't argue picking MSU to miss the playoffs. Our defense is absolutely abysmal this year. Anyone with a QB and an offensive line consisting of scholarship players can shred us. Unless we get a starting DE back, and our all-conference MLB back, the only way we are going to win is if we outgun the other team in a shootout.

I don't even see us winning at ISU next week as a given. Favorites for sure, but I've lost my confidence in our defense (first time I have ever said that).

[ToTheLeft]

Again, show me how. I can show you how I got to this conclusion. You show me how you get to yours.

SDSU wins out, NDSU wins 2 of 3, WIU beats ISUred and SIU, and UNI wins out. All have at least 7 wins.

Montana State, who has been really weak lately, loses to Griz and Weber. NAU has to win out, and I really don't think they can. Sac, PSU, and Weber are possible places for them to fall, take your pick. And it could go either way, it could be 4 from the Big Sky and 2 from the MVFC, it's a matter of a couple games going either way. I picked it that way this week, I picked it opposite last week. But thanks for your, again, well thought out and reasoned analysis.

So you're relying upon upsets in your predictions.

MSU is beat up but has a dangerous QB. NAU lost two close games on the road. The bottom half of the BSC is improving, but so is the top half.

Not relying on upsets. I just don't think any of the top teams in the Big Sky are dominant enough to say "Oh, let's plan their playoff game". If I was picking UM or EWU to miss the playoffs, that's relying on upsets.

MSU, as their fans admit, has no defense. I have got to watch them (thanks Big Sky TV) and I agree. It's a dangerous game to play with a bad defense and try to outgun everyone.

[AZGrizFan]

Again, show me how. I can show you how I got to this conclusion. You show me how you get to yours.SDSU wins out, NDSU wins 2 of 3, WIU beats ISUred and SIU, and UNI wins out. All have at least 7 wins.

Montana State, who has been really weak lately, loses to Griz and Weber. NAU has to win out, and I really don't think they can. Sac, PSU, and Weber are possible places for them to fall, take your pick. And it could go either way, it could be 4 from the Big Sky and 2 from the MVFC, it's a matter of a couple games going either way. I picked it that way this week, I picked it opposite last week. But thanks for your, again, well thought out and reasoned analysis.

Travis: There's a MUCH more likely possibilty that Weber LOSES out than wins out. Here's how I see it shaking out.

EWU wins out and gets the autobid.
Montana wins out and gets an At-Large
MSU wins out all but UM game
NAU wins out

We end up with 2 9-2 teams and 2 8-3 teams (Montana & EWU 7-1 in conference, NAU & MSU 6-2). Who does the committee leave out?

I already did.

[ToTheLeft]

Gotcha. So it's a difference of opinion on a couple games, but I'm the one smoking crack. Gotcha.