Chris Lang's Playoff Projections

[Willie]

Yeah Weber didn't do well in the playoffs the year we played them.

[GannonFan]

So we should put in 4-5 MEAC teams and watch them make the semis. Last year the Big Sky got three teams in and went 0-2 vs the CAA. Next.

Yeah, I said that the CAA was deserving hen. I also said we only get the 3rd team once in a great while and when we do they are low ranked and go to the better teams place where they are likely to lose by extension.

I never said a god damn thing about the MEAC or that that anybody should put 4 or 5 of them in. You want to mix and match and be a retard drinking coffee then I'm fine with that.

I'm not gonna argue the sma old stupid bullshit with ya and the same "other than MT" semantics with you for the 100th time. In fact I wasn't trying to argue at all.

I was trying to see if there were any matchups you cared to see IF a couple of other teams were strong enough to make it there.

You fall immediately back into the silly **** and think I'm gonna do it with you?

**** it.

The MEAC point is perfect for your argument - you're basically saying that the CAA's success is due to 1)having so many teams in there, odds are you have to win some of those and 2) getting great matchups. If that's true, it should work the same for any conference. Heck, the MVC got 4 teams into the playoffs in '03 and none of them made it out of the quarters - strange considering that the CAA did so much better in a similar setup in the following year. And the CAA's got a bunch of teams that have gone the road route for victories so it can't be the favorable matchup thig either.

The number of teams you get in the playoffs does not impact how many get through. It's the quality of teams in the playoffs that do. Pulling off a fluke win is great, but flukes don't happen twice in a row, or more, in the playoffs. If you're good, you win and move on, if you're not, you don't. Having 5 teams that aren't good enough into the playoffs won't make those teams good all of a sudden. I could have 5 kids try to run faster than Usain Bolt - that doesn't mean I'll have a better chance of one of them beating him if I put 20 kids into the mix. The cream rises to the top.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Looks Hen fans. I think you'd be hard pressed to find places where I haven't said that the CAA is the top conference and has been for quite a while.

Now, knowing that why are you explaining this shit to me?

As I said I ain't here to have one of these stupid arguments. So whatever you point your making...it was not at all what I was asking in the first place.

I will say this to you GF. I was not speaking of the MEAC because there is a difference in the strength of the BSC, MVFC, CAA, & SoCon as far as the depth of talent in the top four or five teams so when you are dealing with one of those conferences have more in then you are dealing with a beeter chance that two from the same conference will meet and one will have to win and propel further into the playoffs.

You guys seem to want to argue something about a CAA/BSC thing as far as conferences. Not at all what I was asking but whateve.

[Silenoz]

You guys seem to want to argue something about a CAA/BSC thing as far as conferences. Not at all what I was asking but whateve.

Well when your team sucks, the only thing you can do that year is talk about how the other teams in your vicinity are better than the teams in some other team's vicinity*. It's like 4th-degree pride!

[Silenoz]

* the other teams in the Big Sky do suck most of the time mostly They got us there!


I will say that whenever the CAA is finally down and does shitty in the first round... oh man there is going to be a LOT of people who have fun with that

[GannonFan]

* the other teams in the Big Sky do suck most of the time mostly They got us there!


I will say that whenever the CAA is finally down and does shitty in the first round... oh man there is going to be a LOT of people who have fun with that

Sure, the CAA/Yankee/A10 was mainly shitty in the playoffs for a good two decades before recently (save for some good UD performances) - it may very well get back to that eventually. Won't happen this year, but don't worry, it will someday.

[webfan]

Yeah Weber didn't do well in the playoffs the year we played them.

Weber won big at Cal Poly then lost a close one at Montana. Thats why Weber didn't go further in the plaoffs in 2008. I wish we'd had a chance to play CAA teams that year.

[89Hen]

Yeah Weber didn't do well in the playoffs the year we played them.

I don't think you want to go down this road Willie. It's been rehashed many times and it doesn't turn out good for the Big Sky.

[GannonFan]

Yeah Weber didn't do well in the playoffs the year we played them.

Weber won big at Cal Poly then lost a close one at Montana. Thats why Weber didn't go further in the plaoffs in 2008. I wish we'd had a chance to play CAA teams that year.

You know, it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't think with some people. First, people complain that the CAA gets some teams deep into the playoffs because they get so many teams in and sometimes play each other, thereby assuring a deep run for someone. The Big Sky gets that treatment in one year and now that's an obstacle to big runs. Which CAA team did you want to play that year - the Richmond one that beat Montana?

[89Hen]

So we should put in 4-5 MEAC teams and watch them make the semis. Last year the Big Sky got three teams in and went 0-2 vs the CAA. Next.

Yeah, I said that the CAA was deserving hen. I also said we only get the 3rd team once in a great while and when we do they are low ranked and go to the better teams place where they are likely to lose by extension.

I never said a god damn thing about the MEAC or that that anybody should put 4 or 5 of them in. You want to mix and match and be a retard drinking coffee then I'm fine with that.

I'm not gonna argue the sma old stupid bullshit with ya and the same "other than MT" semantics with you for the 100th time. In fact I wasn't trying to argue at all.

I was trying to see if there were any matchups you cared to see IF a couple of other teams were strong enough to make it there.

You fall immediately back into the silly shit and think I'm gonna do it with you?

Fuck it.

You said the reason the CAA gets teams to the semis and the Big Sky doesn't is because we get more teams in. I think you would agree that if the MEAC got more teams in, they wouldn't get more teams to the semis. What makes you think the Big Sky would?

[mlbowl]

Yeah, I said that the CAA was deserving hen. I also said we only get the 3rd team once in a great while and when we do they are low ranked and go to the better teams place where they are likely to lose by extension.

I never said a god damn thing about the MEAC or that that anybody should put 4 or 5 of them in. You want to mix and match and be a retard drinking coffee then I'm fine with that.

I'm not gonna argue the sma old stupid bullshit with ya and the same "other than MT" semantics with you for the 100th time. In fact I wasn't trying to argue at all.

I was trying to see if there were any matchups you cared to see IF a couple of other teams were strong enough to make it there.

You fall immediately back into the silly **** and think I'm gonna do it with you?

**** it.

You said the reason the CAA gets teams to the semis and the Big Sky doesn't is because we get more teams in. I think you would agree that if the MEAC got more teams in, they wouldn't get more teams to the semis. What makes you think the Big Sky would?

...because unlike the MEAC...the Big Sky has 4 teams in the top 20

[89Hen]

Weber won big at Cal Poly then lost a close one at Montana. Thats why Weber didn't go further in the plaoffs in 2008. I wish we'd had a chance to play CAA teams that year.

Um, I hate to be Captain Obvious, but didn't you play W&M last year in the first round? How did that work out for you?

There are plenty of CAA teams that wish they didn't have to face other CAA teams in the playoffs.

2009 - No Big Sky matchups, Villanova had to go through UNH and W&M. The CAA was 6-1 vs non-CAA teams last year and it was a CAA team that knocked out the other two CAA teams.

2008 - The CAA went 7-2 vs non-CAA teams and JMU knocked out Villanova on the other side of the Montana/Weber game. I'm sure Nova would have much rather played you too.

[AZGrizFan]

danefan: Just caught your post about the NCAA criteria from the handbook. In the past, so much has been done on bids alone that I sort of went away from the geographical philosophy in the projection. I'll amend next week's projection to include the handbook criteria.

Also, it's funny how much one game could change the whole projection. If I'm wrong and W&M beats Delaware Saturday, the Tribe gets to 7-4 and earns a bid in my mind. Still kind of early to do a projection, but with the team I cover off this week, I had a little more free time on my hands to get started with it.

The CAA, MVFC and Big Sky really hold the keys to the playoff selections this year. There is so much parity in those leagues this year that a team that looks good now could have two more league losses in the next two week and be out of it completely.

Should be interesting for sure.

Yep. I can see EWU crapping the bed at least once in the next three weeks (Sac State, @ PSU, SUU), especially if TJ isn't 100%. NAU still has Montana, PSU, Weber and Sac State on their schedule. That's no cakewalk this year. I still think the BSC autobid comes down to the Brawl of the Wild on 11/20.

[AZGrizFan]

Yeah, I said that the CAA was deserving hen. I also said we only get the 3rd team once in a great while and when we do they are low ranked and go to the better teams place where they are likely to lose by extension.

I never said a god damn thing about the MEAC or that that anybody should put 4 or 5 of them in. You want to mix and match and be a retard drinking coffee then I'm fine with that.

I'm not gonna argue the sma old stupid bullshit with ya and the same "other than MT" semantics with you for the 100th time. In fact I wasn't trying to argue at all.

I was trying to see if there were any matchups you cared to see IF a couple of other teams were strong enough to make it there.

You fall immediately back into the silly shit and think I'm gonna do it with you?

Fuck it.

You said the reason the CAA gets teams to the semis and the Big Sky doesn't is because we get more teams in. I think you would agree that if the MEAC got more teams in, they wouldn't get more teams to the semis. What makes you think the Big Sky would?

You're forgetting the part where the CAA teams are either playing each other, or a PL, Big South, MEAC or Patriot League team in the 1st round, guaranteeing them entry to the field of 8.

[Aho Old Guy]

...

You're forgetting the part where the CAA teams are either playing each other, or a PL, Big South, MEAC or Patriot League team in the 1st round, guaranteeing them entry to the field of 8.

You might want to ask JMU about some of their SoCon encounters in the first round.

Just don't mention a game in Boone

[throwbackone033]

Good read.

[DirtyDukes]

THE BRACKET
First round
James Madison (7-4) at Georgia Southern (7-4)

This would be so awesome, I'm from Savannah and grew up rooting for the Eagles and my brother is a GSU alum, MAN CAN THIS HAPPEN PLEASE.

[JayJ79]

2008 - The CAA went 7-2 vs non-CAA teams and JMU knocked out Villanova on the other side of the Montana/Weber game. I'm sure Nova would have much rather played you too.

7-3 vs. non-CAA teams by my count. UNI beat Maine and UNH, and Montana beat JMU.

[webfan]

Weber won big at Cal Poly then lost a close one at Montana. Thats why Weber didn't go further in the plaoffs in 2008. I wish we'd had a chance to play CAA teams that year.

Um, I hate to be Captain Obvious, but didn't you play W&M last year in the first round? How did that work out for you?

There are plenty of CAA teams that wish they didn't have to face other CAA teams in the playoffs.

2009 - No Big Sky matchups, Villanova had to go through UNH and W&M. The CAA was 6-1 vs non-CAA teams last year and it was a CAA team that knocked out the other two CAA teams.

2008 - The CAA went 7-2 vs non-CAA teams and JMU knocked out Villanova on the other side of the Montana/Weber game. I'm sure Nova would have much rather played you too.

I specified 2008. It was a different, better, team than 2009 when W&M crushed us.

[89Hen]

I still think the BSC autobid comes down to the Brawl of the Wild on 11/20.

As you and I called it after week two.

[89Hen]

You're forgetting the part where the CAA teams are either playing each other, or a PL, Big South, MEAC or Patriot League team in the 1st round, guaranteeing them entry to the field of 8.

It's so funny to see you Big Sky fans step on your dicks over and over again.

2009 = W&M > Weber and SIU to get to the semis

2008 = JMU > Wofford and Richmond > AppSt to get to the semis

2007 = UD > UNI and SIU on the way to the finals and Richmond > Wofford (the WC that beat Montana the week before) to get to the semis

2006 = UMass > Montana to get to the finals

Don't let actual results get in the way of a good discussion.

[mcveyrl]

...

You're forgetting the part where the CAA teams are either playing each other, or a PL, Big South, MEAC or Patriot League team in the 1st round, guaranteeing them entry to the field of 8.

You might want to ask JMU about some of their Boone encounters in the first round.

FIFY. Other than them (and Marshall) we've got a 100% winning percentage against the SoCon in the playoffs lately (last 20 years)

[89Hen]

I specified 2008. It was a different, better, team than 2009 when W&M crushed us.

The only CAA team you would have rather faced in 2008 was Maine, but even us CAA fans said they didn't deserve to be in the playoffs.

[webfan]

It's like a**holes, opinions, everyone has one.

[89Hen]

It's like a**holes, opinions, everyone has one.

Yes and no. Big Sky teams force you to rely on opinions because they don't provide good, hard wins to back up the claims.