Donk vs Conk Nov 2d Scoring Thread

[native]

Republicans need 39 seats to win control of the House of Representatives this November. The "Real Clear Politics" website has them leading in about 31 of those seats so far, estimating 210 seats leaning Republican, 186 leaning Democrat, and 39 toss-ups.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

How many seats do you think the Republicans will end up with this November?

[93henfan]

I see a typical to slightly above typical (for the out party) first-term/mid-term election. I think the Republicans will gain around 40-50.

[GannonFan]

I think the GOP takes the House - no way do they take the Senate, but they'll make plenty of inroads there. BTW, wouldn't them taking control of the House amount to a landslide of historic proportions? How would that stack up historical-wise? Just curious.

[native]

I think the GOP takes the House - no way do they take the Senate, but they'll make plenty of inroads there. BTW, wouldn't them taking control of the House amount to a landslide of historic proportions? How would that stack up historical-wise? Just curious.

The Repubs managed a 54-seat swing in the 1994 elections.
http://www.ask.com/wiki/United_States_H ... ions,_1994" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post-WWII "wave" elections brought 55 new Republicans to the House in 1945, 75 new Democrats to the House in 1948, the 54 new Repubs in the 1994 election, and 53 new Democrats in 2006.
http://www.politicsmagazine.com/blog_po ... is-in-Play" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[travelinman67]

50 +/-3

If it's less than 50, the media will jack themselves off on-air pronouncing a Dem win, if it's greater than 50, they'll start a "U.S. Under Seige" discourse, lamenting the "fate" of America.

All Americans should examine why, when our country is in the worst economic situation since the Great Depression, the commander in chief is jetting around America slinging mud and namecalling Republicans. The Dems control the Capitol, the Hill for the past 4 years, yet the situation has exponentially spiraled downward under their policies.

Time for an "ah-ha" moment...

[native]

50 +/-3

If it's less than 50, the media will jack themselves off on-air pronouncing a Dem win, if it's greater than 50, they'll start a "U.S. Under Seige" discourse, lamenting the "fate" of America.

All Americans should examine why, when our country is in the worst economic situation since the Great Depression, the commander in chief is jetting around America slinging mud and namecalling Republicans. The Dems control the Capitol, the Hill for the past 4 years, yet the situation has exponentially spiraled downward under their policies.

Time for an "ah-ha" moment...

There are some signs that the landslide could be more than 50 seats, t-man. About 80 incumbent Dems in the House enjoy less than 50% approval in the polls. Dem kingmakers have entirely abandoned the blue dogs, Obama's poorly conceived and executed responses to the Tea Party have been off-target and ineffective, and seats in heavily Dem districts like HI-1 (Djou) and MA-04 (Frank) are surprisingly in play.

I am not (yet) predicting a 50+ landslide, but I think there is a 50/50 chance that the Repubs win somewhere between 50 and 80 seats.

[TheDancinMonarch]

Not enough! And intrepret that any way you want.

[blueballs]

50 +/-3

If it's less than 50, the media will jack themselves off on-air pronouncing a Dem win, if it's greater than 50, they'll start a "U.S. Under Seige" discourse, lamenting the "fate" of America.

All Americans should examine why, when our country is in the worst economic situation since the Great Depression, the commander in chief is jetting around America slinging mud and namecalling Republicans. The Dems control the Capitol, the Hill for the past 4 years, yet the situation has exponentially spiraled downward under their policies. Time for an "ah-ha" moment...

...yet the tea party is the "crazies," "extremists,' and are "unfit to govern."

Uh huh...

BTW, right on all accounts 67!

[travelinman67]

50 +/-3

If it's less than 50, the media will jack themselves off on-air pronouncing a Dem win, if it's greater than 50, they'll start a "U.S. Under Seige" discourse, lamenting the "fate" of America.

All Americans should examine why, when our country is in the worst economic situation since the Great Depression, the commander in chief is jetting around America slinging mud and namecalling Republicans. The Dems control the Capitol, the Hill for the past 4 years, yet the situation has exponentially spiraled downward under their policies.

Time for an "ah-ha" moment...

There are some signs that the landslide could be more than 50 seats, t-man. About 80 incumbent Dems in the House enjoy less than 50% approval in the polls. Dem kingmakers have entirely abandoned the blue dogs, Obama's poorly conceived and executed responses to the Tea Party have been off-target and ineffective, and seats in heavily Dem districts like HI-1 (Djou) and MA-04 (Frank) are surprisingly in play.

I am not (yet) predicting a 50+ landslide, but I think there is a 50/50 chance that the Repubs win somewhere between 50 and 80 seats.

I used to be a "body politic" faithful...

...then I see Californian's REPEATEDLY voting in numbskulls like Boxer, Feinstein, Waxman, Dellums, and statewide...

...Guv. Moonbeam is leading Whitman 49-44...

...and I'm having great difficulty maintaining faith.

Not Davis, Willie B., Lockyer, Roberti or the infamous Sheila Kuehl have compared to Jerry Brown's career of dishonesty, crookedness, and sheer incompetence...

...yet, 49% of Californians are supporting him?????????

Beyond words.

And I don't think the American body politic is too far behind...

...hell, just read some of the nonsense posted by the Fat Cats, Klueless, Wildcat, Mainejeff...

...and those fucknuts cancel out the vote of thoughtful Americans.

[CitadelGrad]

If the Dem leadership, including Obama, would STFU they might still have time to get out of the election with a very slight House majority. If they continue down the current path they will get toasted.

[native]

...I used to be a "body politic" faithful...

...then I see Californian's REPEATEDLY voting in numbskulls like Boxer, Feinstein, Waxman, Dellums, and statewide...

...Guv. Moonbeam is leading Whitman 49-44...

...and I'm having great difficulty maintaining faith.

Not Davis, Willie B., Lockyer, Roberti or the infamous Sheila Kuehl have compared to Jerry Brown's career of dishonesty, crookedness, and sheer incompetence...

...yet, 49% of Californians are supporting him?????????...

That's one of the reasons I moved to Texas, T-man. I hope the feds let the state of California go bankrupt. It's the only way the idiots you describe have a snowball's chance of coming to their senses.

[Ivytalk]

I will predict a 46-seat GOP gain in the House and 5 in the Senate.

[native]

I will predict a 46-seat GOP gain in the House and 5 in the Senate.

OK. I'll predict 60 in the House and 10 in the Senate.

[native]

Rasmussen shows each party with 48 likely Senate seats and only four toss ups: California, Nevada, Illinois and Washington. I think the GOP will take at least two or three of the toss ups to end up with 50 or 51 Senate seats.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... e_of_power" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

When no toss ups are allowed, Real Clear Politics (RCP) predicts a 50/50 split in the Senate.

The RCP average shows 210 likely Republican House seats and 39 toss ups. I think the Repubs will take the majority of the toss ups and add a couple of steals from the "likely Dem" category, such as Charles Djou in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District, but even if the Repubs take only half of the toss ups, they will end up with a twenty seat margin over the Dems.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[native]

Dick Morris thinks that as many as 100 seats could be in play if Republicans pulled their heads out of their arses.

"...An analysis of the published polling data on eighty House races indicates that there are 54 districts now represented by Democrats in which Republicans are now ahead and another 19 where they are within five points and where the Democratic incumbent is under 50% of the vote. That’s 73 likely wins...."

http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/goal-100-house-seats/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AZGrizFan]

Dem spinsters are already spinning this election saying that if Conks don't take control of both houses it's somehow a "failure".

WAFJ.

[native]

While 39 seats remain rated as "toss ups," the RCP average has increased its lean/likely/safe Republican seats to 211 from 210. Four Republican and seventy-three Democrat seats are at risk of party switch.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[native]

While 39 seats remain rated as "toss ups," the RCP average has increased its lean/likely/safe Republican seats to 211 from 210. Four Republican and seventy-three Democrat seats are at risk of party switch.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Today (10/19) the Repubs have improved from 211 to 213 safe/likely/leaning Repub seats in the Real Clear Politics average, while the toss up seats have increased from 39 to 43.

Dems have dropped from 185 safe/likely/leaning Dem to 179. Four Republican and seventy-nine Democrat seats are at risk of party switch.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Cap'n Cat]

Republicans need 39 seats to win control of the House of Representatives this November. The "Real Clear Politics" website has them leading in about 31 of those seats so far, estimating 210 seats leaning Republican, 186 leaning Democrat, and 39 toss-ups.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

How many seats do you think the Republicans will end up with this November?

Dems maintain control and continue on the path of fixing our Conk-devastated government.

[Col Hogan]

Republicans need 39 seats to win control of the House of Representatives this November. The "Real Clear Politics" website has them leading in about 31 of those seats so far, estimating 210 seats leaning Republican, 186 leaning Democrat, and 39 toss-ups.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

How many seats do you think the Republicans will end up with this November?

Dems maintain control and continue on the path of fixing our Conk-devastated government.

Would you care to make a friendly wager on that prognostication???

[Cap'n Cat]

Dems maintain control and continue on the path of fixing our Conk-devastated government.

Would you care to make a friendly wager on that prognostication???

Hoagie,
Ultimately, I don't care, because nothing ever changes. Should the Conks take over the House, big fvcking deal. Everything happens in the Senate. The House is just a bunch of wannabes. It's like junior college for state representatives.

[89Hen]

Dem spinsters are already spinning this election saying that if Conks don't take control of both houses it's somehow a "failure".

WAFJ.

[89Hen]

Would you care to make a friendly wager on that prognostication???

Hoagie,
Ultimately, I don't care, because nothing ever changes. Should the Conks take over the House, big fvcking deal. Everything happens in the Senate. The House is just a bunch of wannabes. It's like junior college for state representatives.

Hey Z, you mean like that? ^

[Col Hogan]

Would you care to make a friendly wager on that prognostication???

Hoagie,
Ultimately, I don't care, because nothing ever changes. Should the Conks take over the House, big fvcking deal. Everything happens in the Senate. The House is just a bunch of wannabes. It's like junior college for state representatives.

Of course...you don't care....RIGHT...



Nice spin....

[GannonFan]

Would you care to make a friendly wager on that prognostication???

Hoagie,
Ultimately, I don't care, because nothing ever changes. Should the Conks take over the House, big fvcking deal. Everything happens in the Senate. The House is just a bunch of wannabes. It's like junior college for state representatives.

While I share your disdain for the House of Reps, let's not understate it's importance. Both Houses are pretty much equally important when it comes to legislation (the Senate gets a nod for Supreme Court consent) - if the Dems lose the House, it's just as damaging as it is if they would lose just the Senate. And in the House, it's simple majority rules, so you win by one seat you dominate the House. It is a pretty big deal if the Dems lose control of the House.