Playoff Guesses - Week 7

[ToTheLeft]

AQ's:

EWU (Big Sky)
Liberty (Big South)
Delaware (CAA)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
W. Illinois (MVFC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Jacksonville St. (OVC)
Colgate (Patriot)
Wofford (Southern)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

At Larges:

-Griz, NAU (Big Sky)
(Griz win Cat/Griz play-in game, NAU loses to Griz but wins other games, only road game other than Griz is @NoCo)

-Mass, Nova, William and Mary (CAA)
(JMU only gets to 6 wins, UR/UNH don't get to 7 either)

-SC State (MEAC)
(I don't think they have a resume to deserve it, but they'll have wins, and be second in their conference, and since there's just not enough candidates...)

-None (MVFC)
(I'm sure I'll catch flack for this, but I just don't see it at this point. ISUblue, UNI, and NDSU can only lose once, and ISUblue has to play both teams. Plus NDSU has SDSU remaining on their schedule. UNI and SDSU are the most likely candidates in my opinion, but SDSU has to win out, and UNI has to play @WIU, @YSU, and @ISUblue, and can only lose once)

-SEMO St. (OVC)
(Run the table except for Jax State)

-Appalachian St., Chatty, Furman (SoCon)
(Wofford beats App, but App still makes it, Chatty keeps winning, and Furman beats GSU the last week and gets in)

Seeds:
1. Delaware
2. SFA
3. Jax St.
4. WIU
5. Wofford

Round one games:

NAU @ SC State (@ #1 UD Rd. 2)
Chatty @ B-CU (@ #2 SFA Rd. 2)
RMU @ Nova (@ #3 Jax St Rd. 2)
SEMO St. @ Montana (@ #4 WIU Rd. 2)

Round 2 games:

Colgate @ UMass
Furman @ Liberty
EWU @ App St.
William and Mary @ #5 WoCo

Last four out: Lehigh, Dayton, Sam Houston St., Hampton

Those with 6 wins that likely could have made it with 7 wins: JMU, UNI, NDSU, Richmond

[aceinthehole]

-SC State (MEAC)
(I don't think they have a resume to deserve it, but they'll have wins, and be second in their conference, and since there's just not enough candidates...)

Last four out: Lehigh, Dayton, Sam Houston St., Hampton

Those with 6 wins that likely could have made it with 7 wins: JMU, UNI, NDSU, Richmond

If CCSU were to beat RMU and win the NEC AQ, how would RMU look as a at-large candidate?

RMU would finish (8-2, 7-1 NEC) have a win over Liberty (a ranked, AQ winner from the Big South). Their loss would be week 1 to Dayton, and to CCSU for the NEC AQ.

Just wondering ...

[bluehenbillk]

NEC is a one-bid league.

[ToTheLeft]

-SC State (MEAC)
(I don't think they have a resume to deserve it, but they'll have wins, and be second in their conference, and since there's just not enough candidates...)

Last four out: Lehigh, Dayton, Sam Houston St., Hampton

Those with 6 wins that likely could have made it with 7 wins: JMU, UNI, NDSU, Richmond

If CCSU were to beat RMU and win the NEC AQ, how would RMU look as a at-large candidate?

RMU would finish (8-2, 7-1 NEC) have a win over Liberty (a ranked, AQ winner from the Big South). Their loss would be week 1 to Dayton, and to CCSU for the NEC AQ.

Just wondering ...

I dunno. depends on how things shake out. But should they end up like this, I'd say it'd be neck and neck with SCSU. SCSU's loss is better (B-CU is better than Dayton), but RMU's best win would be better (Liberty versus FAMU/Hampton).

[ToTheLeft]

I made an error in the matchups, I had UD twice and forgot App. It's fixed.

[aceinthehole]

NEC is a one-bid league.

I don't disagree, but if that is the case there can be little serious consideration of an at-large selection from the MEAC or PL.

[ToTheLeft]

NEC is a one-bid league.

I don't disagree, but if that is the case there can be little serious consideration of an at-large selection from the MEAC or PL.

Exactly, and blanket statements like "this league is a one-bid league" may have been true in a year with little parity and a 16 team playoff. But there's 4 extra playoff teams, and there's been a LOT of parity this year. We're one week away from having only 27 teams left as eligible if all the bubble teams lose. It's very possible that there's just not a big pool to choose from. Last year, if we had a 20 team playoff, MARIST would have been on the bubble due to a lack of teams to put in the 19/20 spots.

[bluehenbillk]

Agreed on the PL, don't know how the committee will look at a 9-2 SCST. They've been there a lot recently even though they never won.

[ToTheLeft]

Agreed on the PL, don't know how the committee will look at a 9-2 SCST. They've been there a lot recently even though they never won.

And if they get in because they've made the playoffs recently, and not based on current resume, that's a damn shame.

[bluehenbillk]

What you probably will see is a record number of 7-4 teams make the field.

[Willie]

It's just my opinion, but I don't think EWU is gonna hold on to the AQ. But we'll see. I think Sac and PSU will give them trouble.

[weberwildcat]

NAU is the next best team now after EWU? MSU still only has 1 loss and blew out EWU. There is no way to predict the Big Sky right now. This is like trying to predict the Big Sky Tourney in basketball.

[93henfan]

I don't see the Hens getting through @W&M (Tribe rested off a bye), @UMass, and Villanova unscathed. In fact, losing two of those three wouldn't surprise me one bit. The CAA bloodbath never ends. Getting through it unscathed is wishful thinking on anyone's part.

[Aho Old Guy]

Top 10 NCAA Strength-of-Schedule

Villanova
Chattanooga
James Madison
William & Mary
Maine
Delaware
Cornell
Robert Morris
Appalachian St.
New Hampshire

Your seeds SoS:

Deli-where -- #6
Stephen F. Austin -- #84
Jacksonville St. -- #35
Western Ill. -- #55
Wofford -- #31

You make 3 current top 10 SoS teams ( UTC, Robert Morris & Villanova) play in the first round while giving byes to:

Liberty -- #116
Colgate -- #95
Stephen F. Austin -- #84
Western Ill. -- #55
Eastern Wash -- #37
Jacksonville St. -- #35


You suggest 3 Big Fluffy teams make the playoffs (while they have played 5 OoC FCS games to date, 7 non-D1 games and zero FBS victories), and no at-large for the MoValley (who is 6-4 OoC FCS to go with only 4 non-D1 games + an FBS win). Oh, and with the following strength-of-schedule for the Big Fluffies:

Eastern Wash -- #37
Northern Ariz -- #71
Montana -- #90
Montana St -- #97

Finally:

The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents; and
5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.

[ToTheLeft]

I didn't realize that just SOS should determine who gets a "bye" and where teams get seeded. I thought it was complete resume. My bad. When you posted the criteria, SOS wasn't mentioned. Don't post the criteria and then cherry pick with something outside the criteria

To be honest, anyone but the seeds are interchangable. That's why I didn't post them last week. I tried to regionalize the matchups, that was the main priority. Who plays in what round wasn't my main priority.

And show me a time they put a 6 win team in. This won't be the year, either. They wouldn't have put that in the selection criteria if it was a rule they "might" use. It's something they use. I'd suspect it would only come into play if the choices left were a 6 win JMU or UNI team against Hampton, Dayton, and Jacksonville.

And I don't get your point about the All D-1 schedule. Who did I omit that plays an all D-1 schedule in favor of one that doesn't?

[EWURanger]

It's just my opinion, but I don't think EWU is gonna hold on to the AQ. But we'll see. I think Sac and PSU will give them trouble.

So do I. Just like MSU and NAU are going to give the Griz trouble.

[EWURanger]

NAU is the next best team now after EWU? MSU still only has 1 loss and blew out EWU. There is no way to predict the Big Sky right now. This is like trying to predict the Big Sky Tourney in basketball.

And MSU got blown out by NAU.......who was beat by EWU. I agree, I don't think there's any way to predict what's going to happen from here on out. EWU, UM, MSU, NAU, all with 1 conference loss. You could even throw Sac in there having an outside chance if one of the top 3 slip up, which wouldn't be inconceivable.

[siuham]

Aho: Do you expect a top 5 SFA and Jax State team to not get a seed in the playoffs?

TTL's call is correct.

[freebird]

Top 10 NCAA Strength-of-Schedule

Villanova
Chattanooga
James Madison
William & Mary
Maine
Delaware
Cornell
Robert Morris
Appalachian St.
New Hampshire

Your seeds SoS:

Deli-where -- #6
Stephen F. Austin -- #84
Jacksonville St. -- #35
Western Ill. -- #55
Wofford -- #31

You make 3 current top 10 SoS teams ( UTC, Robert Morris & Villanova) play in the first round while giving byes to:

Liberty -- #116
Colgate -- #95
Stephen F. Austin -- #84
Western Ill. -- #55
Eastern Wash -- #37
Jacksonville St. -- #35


You suggest 3 Big Fluffy teams make the playoffs (while they have played 5 OoC FCS games to date, 7 non-D1 games and zero FBS victories), and no at-large for the MoValley (who is 6-4 OoC FCS to go with only 4 non-D1 games + an FBS win). Oh, and with the following strength-of-schedule for the Big Fluffies:

Eastern Wash -- #37
Northern Ariz -- #71
Montana -- #90
Montana St -- #97

Finally:

The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents; and
5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.

I'm curious as to what source you are using for SOS.
Whatever it is, it varies widely from Saragins:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/ ... titialskip" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Villanova 56.93( 154)
Chattanooga 55.28( 168)
James Madison 57.53( 149)
William & Mary 54.57( 172)
Maine 62.34( 112)
Delaware 54.65( 170)
Cornell 47.22( 203)
Robert Morris 48.57( 199)
Appalachian St. 50.42( 188)
New Hampshire 57.26( 152)

and of course the "fluffies"

Eastern Wash -- #37 65.88( 84)
Northern Ariz -- #71 66.30( 82)
Montana -- #90 62.85( 106)
Montana St -- #97 58.83( 141)

I'm not saying Saragins is the end all be all, I'm just curious as to what your source is.

Kind of wierd how according to Saragin only Main has tougher schedule than the weakest schedule of the "fluffies"

[kalm]

Top 10 NCAA Strength-of-Schedule

Villanova
Chattanooga
James Madison
William & Mary
Maine
Delaware
Cornell
Robert Morris
Appalachian St.
New Hampshire

Your seeds SoS:

Deli-where -- #6
Stephen F. Austin -- #84
Jacksonville St. -- #35
Western Ill. -- #55
Wofford -- #31

You make 3 current top 10 SoS teams ( UTC, Robert Morris & Villanova) play in the first round while giving byes to:

Liberty -- #116
Colgate -- #95
Stephen F. Austin -- #84
Western Ill. -- #55
Eastern Wash -- #37
Jacksonville St. -- #35


You suggest 3 Big Fluffy teams make the playoffs (while they have played 5 OoC FCS games to date, 7 non-D1 games and zero FBS victories), and no at-large for the MoValley (who is 6-4 OoC FCS to go with only 4 non-D1 games + an FBS win). Oh, and with the following strength-of-schedule for the Big Fluffies:

Eastern Wash -- #37
Northern Ariz -- #71
Montana -- #90
Montana St -- #97

Finally:

I'm curious as to what source you are using for SOS.
Whatever it is, it varies widely from Saragins:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/ ... titialskip" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Villanova 56.93( 154)
Chattanooga 55.28( 168)
James Madison 57.53( 149)
William & Mary 54.57( 172)
Maine 62.34( 112)
Delaware 54.65( 170)
Cornell 47.22( 203)
Robert Morris 48.57( 199)
Appalachian St. 50.42( 188)
New Hampshire 57.26( 152)

and of course the "fluffies"

Eastern Wash -- #37 65.88( 84)
Northern Ariz -- #71 66.30( 82)
Montana -- #90 62.85( 106)
Montana St -- #97 58.83( 141)

I'm not saying Saragins is the end all be all, I'm just curious as to what your source is.

Kind of wierd how according to Saragin only Main has tougher schedule than the weakest schedule of the "fluffies"

That's why Sagarin is interesting in that it doesn't give as much credit for wins against non and partial scholarship schools.

And just like invoking the name hitler or nazi, when you use the term "big fluffy" on an FCS message board, you automatically lose the argument.

[kalm]

TTL, for arguments sake, given the Sagarin rankings of the conferences, if one of the Big Sky teams makes it to 9-2 do you see them getting a seed?

[grizzaholic]

I thought the GPI would be the most reliable poll to use for this type of thing? Ralph told me so.

[kalm]

I thought the GPI would be the most reliable poll to use for this type of thing? Ralph told me so.

10/11/2010 GPI Top 25

1. Delaware (1.25)
2. Appalachian St (3.00)
3. James Madison (4.625)
4. Stephen F. Austin (4.75)
5. William & Mary (5.75)
T6. Montana St (6.625)
T6. Jacksonville St (6.625)
8. Massachusetts (7.125)
9. Eastern Washington (10.25)
10. Villanova (11.25)
T11. Wofford (13.625)
T11. Western Illinois (13.625)
13. Montana (13.75)
14. North Dakota State (14.500)
15. Cal Poly SLO (15.25)
16. Georgia Southern (19.625)
17. Northern Arizona (20.25)
18. Northern Iowa (20.375)
19. Southern Illinois (20.625)
20. Sacramento State (20.75)
T21. Southeast Missouri State (21.75)
T21. Chattanooga (21.75)
T23. Furman (23.625)
T23. South Carolina State (23.625)
25. Liberty (23.75)

[grizzaholic]

I thought the GPI would be the most reliable poll to use for this type of thing? Ralph told me so.

10/11/2010 GPI Top 25

1. Delaware (1.25)
2. Appalachian St (3.00)
3. James Madison (4.625)
4. Stephen F. Austin (4.75)
5. William & Mary (5.75)
T6. Montana St (6.625)
T6. Jacksonville St (6.625)
8. Massachusetts (7.125)
9. Eastern Washington (10.25)
10. Villanova (11.25)
T11. Wofford (13.625)
T11. Western Illinois (13.625)
13. Montana (13.75)
14. North Dakota State (14.500)
15. Cal Poly SLO (15.25)
16. Georgia Southern (19.625)
17. Northern Arizona (20.25)
18. Northern Iowa (20.375)
19. Southern Illinois (20.625)
20. Sacramento State (20.75)
T21. Southeast Missouri State (21.75)
T21. Chattanooga (21.75)
T23. Furman (23.625)
T23. South Carolina State (23.625)
25. Liberty (23.75)

The GPI is the most accurate poll out there. It is better than the Word of GOD. I learned from Syntax Error. He took a day off of doing load after load of METH and learned me how the GPI was the best.

[SuperHornet]

TTL: I'm REALLY disappointed in your list. Where are the Hornets?!?