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The growing threat from Football Championship Subdivision teams
Associated Press
SEPTEMBER 21, 2010
From: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 12272.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
One of the stories of this young season is the growing threat that Football Championship Subdivision teams pose to the big schools, as evidenced by North Dakota State's upset over Kansas in week one, James Madison's stunner over Virginia Tech in week two and Massachusetts's five-point loss to Michigan on Saturday. But is this threat actually growing? Are games between the FCS and the Football Bowl Subdivision getting closer? When Big State U. takes on Diminutive Directional College, is there now something for the Goliaths to fear?
Not really. FCS upsets over FBS teams aren't on the rise. They're happening at the same rate that they have for the past 15 years. The big boys' victory margin isn't narrowing either.
This, of course, is as it should be. FBS teams, by virtue of their significantly larger followings and greater visibility, hold massive advantages over FCS schools. This is reflected in their head-to-head results, which have not deviated this year from past seasons:
FBS performance vs. FCS schools
Year Win% Record Differential
1996 .851 40-7 15.1
1997 .857 30-5 20.8
1998 .872 41-6 21.8
1999 .865 45-7 22.9
2000 .709 39-16 19.7
2001 .860 49-8 21.3
2002 .877 57-8 24.8
2003 .859 61-10 23.6
2004 .893 50-6 21.5
2005 .963 52-2 25.4
2006 .910 71-7 26.7
2007 .886 70-9 25.9
2008 .977 85-2 28.9
2009 .947 89-5 29.1
2010 .913 63-6 27.4
Total .890 842-104 24.4
Source: Stats Inc.
But there are certain schools and scheduling scenarios that name teams should be wary of. Basically, if you're a fan of a major school, the biggest threats to the 40-7 breather you're expecting are the Colonial Athletic Association and your own athletic director's foolishness.
Although the 2010 FBS winning percentage is down from 2008, it's in line with the overall winning percentage since 1996 - slightly ahead, actually. By season's end, it may wind up in the same ballpark as 2009. Likewise, the average point differential in these games isn't slipping in comparison to where it typically stands. This season's 27.4-point figure is the third-highest of this 15-year time frame.
So FCS upsets aren't on the rise. What is on the rise are assumptions that they're on the rise, since writers and TV commentators often mention this season's six upsets without providing context about whether six is an abnormally high number. Plus, of course, the 2007 Appalachian State-Michigan and 2010 James Madison-Virginia Tech upsets have created the perception that even elite FBS teams have become much more vulnerable.
FBS conferences vs. FCS schools
Conf. Record Win%
SEC 78-2 .975
Big 12 87-3 .967
WAC 74-3 .961
Pac-10 37-2 .949
Mtn West 48-3 .941
Big East 64-4 .941
Conf. USA 68-5 .932
ACC 82-7 .921
Big Ten 52-5 .912
Ind. 93-16 .853
MAC 95-27 .779
Big West* 32-10 .762
Sun Belt 32-17 .653
*-no longer plays football
Source: Stats Inc.
But while those upsets were undeniably landmark victories (they represented the first two FCS wins over ranked FBS opponents), they seem to be closer in kind to the 1982 Chaminade-over-Virginia basketball shocker than the U.S.'s sixth-place showing at the 2002 world basketball championships. That is, they're more one-offs than proof that the playing field is suddenly leveling.
Indeed, for all but the weakest FBS conferences, the odds of losing to an FCS opponent remain miniscule, as the adjacent chart shows.
Note how well even the WAC has done, and how admirably few FCS games the Pac-10 has played.
But then there's the CAA - 'Colonial Athletic Association', home to seven teams in last week's FCS top-25 coaches' poll, including UMass and James Madison. Since 2006, its average point differential in games against FBS teams is minus-15 points, a relatively competitive figure when compared to the overall average. CAA teams have 10 victories over the FBS over this span (including wins over Virginia, Virginia Tech, Northwestern and Duke twice), compared to 19 for all of the rest of the FCS. Clearly this is not a conference to be taken lightly - which is exactly what Virginia Tech did by playing James Madison after the Hokies lost to Boise State. 
. I believe Cal Poly has victories over SJSU and SDSU in the past couple years, as well as a 1-point loss to Wisconsin. Montana State beat Colorado a few years ago, then played well against Oklahoma, and should have won against Washington State this year. Weber has also played their I-A games tough recently. 
(read that as drunk, where usually I transpose scoreboard numbers.)