Big Sky Standings 2010 Predictions?

[GrizMadman]

I don't think it has. I checked back through the last 102 pages of threads but there are 106 pages so could hav been...

There has been some discussion: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=16596" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Possible finishing order is at the end of the position lists:

"I think the only position remaining is kickers. However, based on the above, I've analyzed Rachac's rankings to produce a list, by points, of the teams with top returning players at their respective positions. I awarded 10 points for #1, on down to 1 point for #10. This is what I came up with:

"UM 70, MSU 68, EWU 53, SacSt 49, NAU 48, WSU 40, UNC 39, PSU 33, ISU 25

"Could this forecast the final BSC standings? Lots of uncertainty re: unlisted players who could well step up. Surprising is SacSt's position at #4. There's a lot of talent in the BSC & I think Rachac's rankings point this out. Of course, the kickers will add a lot & I look forward to Rachac's ranking of them."

BTW, Rachac says he's going to rank the Specialists, by which he may mean the kickers. That could change the final point standings, as kickers make a huge difference in games.

[Silenoz]

Okay, you're definitely David2

[Green Laser]

I don't think it has. I checked back through the last 102 pages of threads but there are 106 pages so could hav been...

There has been some discussion: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=16596" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Possible finishing order is at the end of the position lists:

"I think the only position remaining is kickers. However, based on the above, I've analyzed Rachac's rankings to produce a list, by points, of the teams with top returning players at their respective positions. I awarded 10 points for #1, on down to 1 point for #10. This is what I came up with:

"UM 70, MSU 68, EWU 53, SacSt 49, NAU 48, WSU 40, UNC 39, PSU 33, ISU 25

"Could this forecast the final BSC standings? Lots of uncertainty re: unlisted players who could well step up. Surprising is SacSt's position at #4. There's a lot of talent in the BSC & I think Rachac's rankings point this out. Of course, the kickers will add a lot & I look forward to Rachac's ranking of them."

BTW, Rachac says he's going to rank the Specialists, by which he may mean the kickers. That could change the final point standings, as kickers make a huge difference in games.

I don't think picking Sac State 4th is out of line, they finished 5th last season at 4-4. With another good recuiting class, some tranfers and the return of Hilliard, Deadder etc. who missed the entire 09 season they figure to be much better this season.

[Silenoz]

Griz fans can tell you a lot more about because they have seen the practices but from what I gather:

On offense - Under Hauck he liked to punish teams with the run game and grind teams down. His offensive lines were NFL size players. Their passing game I would say lacked imagination but was extremely effective because of the talent that they had at qb and wr positions. Before there were quotes on Egriz about Bobby changing pass plays to run plays. That won't happen under Pflugrad. I think the offense will have more spread formation principles with an added emphasis on passing. My guess is that they will be as explosive on offense as EWU and Weber have demonstrated in the past, but will be more effective since they are loaded with talent.


On Defense - they get their DC back that coached them in 95 championship game. His defense is based on creating pressure pressure pressure. Lots of blitzing and forcing the action. During Spring ball, the UM offense struggled to complete passes/move the ball because the blitzes were coming from everywhere. The only drawback to this type of scheme is that sometimes they give up the big play. The MSU Bobcats used somewhat a similar approach during Kramer years and it was fun to watch teams struggle for the whole game. However the occasional big play was given up.

Teams facing the Griz better have great offensive lines or you will have a nightmare. Eastern Washington and MSU probably have the best/most experienced offensive lines returning in the Big Sky. UM has had to bring in 3 new players along their line so there will be questions about them for a little while.

Good lay out bp, the only small point is that it is the defensive coordinator from the 2001 team which was probably the best defenses we've had. He was Joe Glenn's DC.

One can only imagine how his schemes would of worked in the JMU/Richmond/Nova/UMass/Wofford games

[SuperHornet]

I'm seeing the potential for Sac to finish with a 0, 1, or 2 in the loss column. If it's a 1, it's the Griz.

I'm glad you see through the rose-colored glasses of potential. Way to keep positive SH!

I don't know about rose-colored glasses, SE. But I do like looking through Rose-Colored Stained Glass Windows.



(Or is it that you're feeling jealous that I'm attributing the one loss to the Griz and NOT to the Eagles. )

[GrizMadman]

Good lay out bp, the only small point is that it is the defensive coordinator from the 2001 team which was probably the best defenses we've had. He was Joe Glenn's DC.

One can only imagine how his schemes would of worked in the JMU/Richmond/Nova/UMass/Wofford games

First, it's refreshing to hear someone say Joe Glenn did some good. Glenn was criticized because he didn't do anything during the games. I've read Don Read didn't, either. Glenn, like Read, knew enough to hire good people and step out of the way. Why Glenn failed at Wyoming is another story.

Now, you're both talking about Mike Breske, Pflu's DC, once Glenn's DC. Once again, Silenoz utters another of his idiotic statements, that if Breske were BH's DC instead of Paulson, that it would have been a different story with the teams Silenoz mentioned. I hope all success to Coach Breske and do not demean anything about him in what I'm about to say.

Ok, Silenoz, the JMU game. Where in hell do you think a blitzing defense was the answer to the second half of that game? JMU went to a smash-mouth offense in the rain and mud and simply overpowered the Griz. Richmond: Please tell me where a Breske defense would have stopped that offense. Nova: Same as Richmond. How would a Breske defense have stopped the wildcat and Matt Szczur? Remember, Paulson's defense held Nova to only a 2 point advantage at game's end. UMass: Didn't see that game. Wofford: Tell me how a Breske defense can stop the triple option. My jaw dropped, as I'm sure BH's, Paulson's, and the other 20+K in WaGriz that day, as Wofford ran up hugh yardage on the Griz. Tell me, Silenoz, what will Breske bring to these situations that Paulson didn't? I don't mean to create some kind of competition, here, between past & present DC's, but there's been plenty of comparisons on this board, already.

[Silenoz]

Yeah, you're right D2. I mean it's not like the running game fucked our Paulson-led defenses up the ass each of the last 7 years in the playoffs. And the guy who's schemes shut down Louis Ivory and whose 2nd half adjustments against the greatest FCS RB of all time got us within several yards of the greatest comeback in FCS championship history would certainly have been up a creek in those situations. Lord forgive me for ever thinking that a member of Saint Hauck's staffs wasn't the greatest coach we've ever had.


Let's just look at the Nova game. You know what a coach could of done differently to help stop the run? Anything. Literally anything. Move someone up into the box ONE time.

Do you know why Sczur's career best game yardage wise was against us, and not some shitty team like Rhode Island, or Northeastern, or Towson (apologies to Towson,URI and NU fans)? Because even they at least TRIED to stop him

[kemajic]

One can only imagine how his schemes would of worked in the JMU/Richmond/Nova/UMass/Wofford games

First, it's refreshing to hear someone say Joe Glenn did some good. Glenn was criticized because he didn't do anything during the games. I've read Don Read didn't, either. Glenn, like Read, knew enough to hire good people and step out of the way. Why Glenn failed at Wyoming is another story.

Now, you're both talking about Mike Breske, Pflu's DC, once Glenn's DC. Once again, Silenoz utters another of his idiotic statements, that if Breske were BH's DC instead of Paulson, that it would have been a different story with the teams Silenoz mentioned. I hope all success to Coach Breske and do not demean anything about him in what I'm about to say.

Ok, Silenoz, the JMU game. Where in hell do you think a blitzing defense was the answer to the second half of that game? JMU went to a smash-mouth offense in the rain and mud and simply overpowered the Griz. Richmond: Please tell me where a Breske defense would have stopped that offense. Nova: Same as Richmond. How would a Breske defense have stopped the wildcat and Matt Szczur? Remember, Paulson's defense held Nova to only a 2 point advantage at game's end. UMass: Didn't see that game. Wofford: Tell me how a Breske defense can stop the triple option. My jaw dropped, as I'm sure BH's, Paulson's, and the other 20+K in WaGriz that day, as Wofford ran up hugh yardage on the Griz. Tell me, Silenoz, what will Breske bring to these situations that Paulson didn't? I don't mean to create some kind of competition, here, between past & present DC's, but there's been plenty of comparisons on this board, already.

What is so difficult to understand for you? Those offenses were one-dimentional offenses. Any good DC with decent personnel can stop a one-dimentional offense when they are willing to adjust to the strength of the offense. The Hauck/Paulson defense rarely adjusted because they were arrogant enough to believe they could dictate what the offense would be able to do. In the cases of the above examples, their "bend, don't break" schemes broke and required change. They didn't think they had to. But they did and lost. Breske will change when necessary to stop strong, but one-dimentional offenses. No DC is going to stop strong balanced offenses; you just have to outscore them.

Maybe even better examples of the change I expect to see with Breske come from games that we won with the Hauck/Paulson philosophy, but gave up huge chunks of yardage through the air. That made uneccearily close games, because of no D adjustments to the offensive strength of the opponent. NAU and UCD last year could have been forced to run the ball against us by overloading against their passing attacks. But we didn't, because in one case we bent, but didn't break, and in the other, it broke, but the offense simply outscored them. We flirted with a loss in each case against inferior overall personnel. It didn't have to happen.

[SDHornet]

[Silenoz]

Once again, Silenoz utters another of his idiotic statements

Hmm, I missed that part the first time. Pretty hilarious coming from someone that posted these two gems:
http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/viewtopi ... =1&t=43926" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/viewtopi ... 10&start=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



And sorry to everyone else for turning this thread into a typical egriz-style fight

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Kick his ass, Seabass!

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Once again, Silenoz utters another of his idiotic statements

Hmm, I missed that part the first time. Pretty hilarious coming from someone that posted these two gems:
http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/viewtopi ... =1&t=43926" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/viewtopi ... 10&start=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



And sorry to everyone else for turning this thread into a typical egriz-style fight

That second one I had seen. The first one I had not...UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE!!!

The fans are laying odds?

Jesus Christ I got nothing against you madman, but that is some crazy, crazy shit right there.

So I guess by that logic we are picking Liberty as our NC at this point?

Fuck me runnin'!

[uncbears8228]

1.Montana: New coach, but still Monatana. Has plenty of talent and depth
T2.Montana St: Defense is definitely there, but the offense is the question. The offene is good enough to get a tie for second and playoff birth.
T2.Eastern Washington: The defense should be solid and help lead the team early with a new QB. The Eagels also have a good run game to keep opponents off balance.
4. Northern Arizona: NAU probably returns the best starting QB in Michael Herrick. The defense will determine if NAU can make a run at the conference title.
T5. Sacramento St: Sac St could provide some trouble for the leaders but just not enough to contend. If the defense improves could some how sneak into the playoffs with a couple upsets.
T5. Weber St: The Wildcats lost just too much talent on the offensive side to contend for the playoffs, but will still provide a good challenge to any team
7. Northern Colorado: UNC will be led by its defense once again this year. The Bears will have a new starting QB, but new OC Greg Peterson wants to have a run first offense.
8. Idaho St: The past few seasons havent been pretty for Idaho St. But the Bengals also have been competitive including almost upsetting Montana last year. Idaho St will keep scrapping and could win a few games this year.
9. Portland St: The Jerry Glanville experiment failed big time and now new coach Nigel Burton has some rebuilding to do.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

1.Montana: New coach, but still Monatana. Has plenty of talent and depth
T2.Montana St: Defense is definitely there, but the offense is the question. The offene is good enough to get a tie for second and playoff birth.
T2.Eastern Washington: The defense should be solid and help lead the team early with a new QB. The Eagels also have a good run game to keep opponents off balance.
4. Northern Arizona: NAU probably returns the best starting QB in Michael Herrick. The defense will determine if NAU can make a run at the conference title.
T5. Sacramento St: Sac St could provide some trouble for the leaders but just not enough to contend. If the defense improves could some how sneak into the playoffs with a couple upsets.
T5. Weber St: The Wildcats lost just too much talent on the offensive side to contend for the playoffs, but will still provide a good challenge to any team
7. Northern Colorado: UNC will be led by its defense once again this year. The Bears will have a new starting QB, but new OC Greg Peterson wants to have a run first offense.
8. Idaho St: The past few seasons havent been pretty for Idaho St. But the Bengals also have been competitive including almost upsetting Montana last year. Idaho St will keep scrapping and could win a few games this year.
9. Portland St: The Jerry Glanville experiment failed big time and now new coach Nigel Burton has some rebuilding to do.

Nice work there 8228.

[catbob]

It'll be down to the 3 teams that field consistently winning teams.

#1 UM, even with questions as a new staff takes over, with a new system. Unless it is a major f*c* up, things should be fine in Missoula.
Then it comes down to MSU and EWU. I'd like to say my Cats are #2, but we won't be unless we end that losing streak to EWU. End that streak and I think MSU makes the playoffs.
NAU is the only other team I think could push for the conference title. Everyone else is either improving but not yet there (Sac, UNC), falling from grace (Weber - sorry you lost too much, but no one should write them off completely), or wallowing in their awfulness (ISU...). Then there is PSU which is trying to recover from the Glanville experiment, but I can't say how that is gonna go next season.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

It'll be down to the 3 teams that field consistently winning teams.

#1 UM, even with questions as a new staff takes over, with a new system. Unless it is a major f*c* up, things should be fine in Missoula.
Then it comes down to MSU and EWU. I'd like to say my Cats are #2, but we won't be unless we end that losing streak to EWU. End that streak and I think MSU makes the playoffs.
NAU is the only other team I think could push for the conference title. Everyone else is either improving but not yet there (Sac, UNC), falling from grace (Weber - sorry you lost too much, but no one should write them off completely), or wallowing in their awfulness (ISU...). Then there is PSU which is trying to recover from the Glanville experiment, but I can't say how that is gonna go next season.

Can't argue with any of that. Should be an interesting season in the Big Sky.

[SuperHornet]

1.Montana: New coach, but still Monatana. Has plenty of talent and depth
T2.Montana St: Defense is definitely there, but the offense is the question. The offene is good enough to get a tie for second and playoff birth.
T2.Eastern Washington: The defense should be solid and help lead the team early with a new QB. The Eagels also have a good run game to keep opponents off balance.
4. Northern Arizona: NAU probably returns the best starting QB in Michael Herrick. The defense will determine if NAU can make a run at the conference title.
T5. Sacramento St: Sac St could provide some trouble for the leaders but just not enough to contend. If the defense improves could some how sneak into the playoffs with a couple upsets.
T5. Weber St: The Wildcats lost just too much talent on the offensive side to contend for the playoffs, but will still provide a good challenge to any team
7. Northern Colorado: UNC will be led by its defense once again this year. The Bears will have a new starting QB, but new OC Greg Peterson wants to have a run first offense.
8. Idaho St: The past few seasons havent been pretty for Idaho St. But the Bengals also have been competitive including almost upsetting Montana last year. Idaho St will keep scrapping and could win a few games this year.
9. Portland St: The Jerry Glanville experiment failed big time and now new coach Nigel Burton has some rebuilding to do.

Like I mentioned on the Sky Board incarnation of this post, I'll say that it's generally pretty good. I have two objections (other than my usual myopic 15-0 Hornet prediction):

1. I just can't see the Kitties finishing that high.
2. There's no way my UOP teammate is going to finish dead last. I expect the Vikes to finish somewhere around 6 or 7, if not a tad higher.

[Jibjab]

1.Montana: New coach, but still Monatana. Has plenty of talent and depth
T2.Montana St: Defense is definitely there, but the offense is the question. The offene is good enough to get a tie for second and playoff birth.
T2.Eastern Washington: The defense should be solid and help lead the team early with a new QB. The Eagels also have a good run game to keep opponents off balance.
4. Northern Arizona: NAU probably returns the best starting QB in Michael Herrick. The defense will determine if NAU can make a run at the conference title.
T5. Sacramento St: Sac St could provide some trouble for the leaders but just not enough to contend. If the defense improves could some how sneak into the playoffs with a couple upsets.
T5. Weber St: The Wildcats lost just too much talent on the offensive side to contend for the playoffs, but will still provide a good challenge to any team
7. Northern Colorado: UNC will be led by its defense once again this year. The Bears will have a new starting QB, but new OC Greg Peterson wants to have a run first offense.
8. Idaho St: The past few seasons havent been pretty for Idaho St. But the Bengals also have been competitive including almost upsetting Montana last year. Idaho St will keep scrapping and could win a few games this year.
9. Portland St: The Jerry Glanville experiment failed big time and now new coach Nigel Burton has some rebuilding to do.

That's a bit generous for UNC, an unproven QB and new O coordinator, don't like the looks of this up coming season.

[Wildcat Ryan]

I think Weber will be top 4, we did lose alot but we also got alot including the #1 running back in Utah out of Davis High, a year older defense (??? marks on defensive line) And even with Toone gone, Weber still has very talented recievers.

Favorable conference Schedule, winnable homecoming game vs the Aggies, 2 KNOWN losses, Im predicting Weber to start 6-1 Anything can happen, nobody expected Weber to do what they did in 2008, who knows maybe this year to

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I think Weber will be top 4, we did lose alot but we also got alot including the #1 running back in Utah out of Davis High, a year older defense (??? marks on defensive line) And even with Toone gone, Weber still has very talented recievers.

Favorable conference Schedule, winnable homecoming game vs the Aggies, 2 KNOWN losses, Im predicting Weber to start 6-1 Anything can happen, nobody expected Weber to do what they did in 2008, who knows maybe this year to

Weber will start out 3-2 at best, with a real chance to go 2-3 or 1-4 if Higgins sucks it up more than usual. A lot more pressure on him to perform consistently this year, and we all saw how he performs under pressure last year.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

I think Weber will be top 4, we did lose alot but we also got alot including the #1 running back in Utah out of Davis High, a year older defense (??? marks on defensive line) And even with Toone gone, Weber still has very talented recievers.

Favorable conference Schedule, winnable homecoming game vs the Aggies, 2 KNOWN losses, Im predicting Weber to start 6-1 Anything can happen, nobody expected Weber to do what they did in 2008, who knows maybe this year to

Weber will start out 3-2 at best, with a real chance to go 2-3 or 1-4 if Higgins sucks it up more than usual. A lot more pressure on him to perform consistently this year, and we all saw how he performs under pressure last year.

Not to mention that after the Griz & W&M both showed how to dismantle Weber with pressure he is going to be seeing a lot more of it.

They could find a way around it and be challenging for the title late though. It wouldn't surprise me a bit.

[Mvemjsunpx]

My predictions:

• 1. Montana ______________8-0_____11-0____ New coach, same Big Sky results
  2. Weber State___________6-2_____7-4_____ Can Higgins cut down on the INTs?
  3. Eastern Washington__6-2_____8-3_____ Taiwan Jones needs to get more than 13.5 carries per game
  4. Northern Arizona ____5-3_____6-5_____ Where have I seen this before?
  5. Montana State _______4-4_____6-5_____ Not enough playmakers on offense
  6. Sacramento State ____3-5_____5-6 ____ Hornet D needs to improve greatly
  7. Northern Colorado___3-5_____5-6_____ The defense could be quite good
  8. Portland State________1-7_____1-10____ Brutal schedule leads to a tortuous first season for Nigel Burton
  9. Idaho State ___________0-8_____1-10____ Losing two good kickers offsets possible gains elsewhere

Same playoff teams as last year.
Weber & EWU could be forced to play Thanksgiving weekend.
Tiebreakers (head-to-head) are included.

[Mvemjsunpx]

• Best Rushing Offense - Montana
  Worst Rushing Offense - Idaho St.
  
  Best Passing Offense - Weber St.
  Worst Passing Offense - Idaho St.
  
  Best Overall Offense - Montana
  Worst Overall Offense - Idaho St.
  
  Best Run Defense - Montana St.
  Worst Run Defense - Idaho St.
  
  Best Pass Defense - Montana
  Worst Pass Defense - Portland St.
  
  Best Overall Defense - Montana
  Worst Overall Defense - Idaho St.
  
  Best Special Teams - Montana
  Worst Special Teams - Idaho St.
  
  
  
  Best Quarterback - Andrew Selle (UMT)
  Best Running Back - Taiwan Jones (EWU)
  Best Wide Receiver - Ray Fry (PSU)
  Best Tight End - Kyle Begger (MSU)
  Best WR/TE Corps - Sac State
  Best Offensive Lineman - J.C. Oram (WEB)
  Best Offensive Line - Montana St.
  
  Best Defensive Lineman - Renard Williams (EWU)
  Best Defensive Line - Montana St.
  Best Linebacker - J.C. Sherritt (EWU)
  Best LB Corps - Eastern Washington
  Best Defensive Back - Trumaine Johnson (UMT)
  Best Secondary - Montana
  
  Best Kicker - Zach Brown (PSU)
  Best Punter - Sean Wren (UMT)
  Best Ret. Specialist - Jabin Sambrano (UMT)
  Best Return Team - Montana

[Vidav]

My predictions:

• 1. Montana ______________8-0_____11-0____ New coach, same Big Sky results
  2. Weber State___________6-2_____7-4_____ Can Higgins cut down on the INTs?
  3. Eastern Washington__6-2_____8-3_____ Taiwan Jones needs to get more than 13.5 carries per game
  4. Northern Arizona ____5-3_____6-5_____ Where have I seen this before?
  5. Montana State _______4-4_____6-5_____ Not enough playmakers on offense
  6. Sacramento State ____3-5_____5-6 ____ Hornet D needs to improve greatly
  7. Northern Colorado___3-5_____5-6_____ The defense could be quite good
  8. Portland State________1-7_____1-10____ Brutal schedule leads to a tortuous first season for Nigel Burton
  9. Idaho State ___________0-8_____1-10____ Losing two good kickers offsets possible gains elsewhere

Same playoff teams as last year.
Weber & EWU could be forced to play Thanksgiving weekend.
Tiebreakers (head-to-head) are included.

I really think Weber will be below Montana State and NAU.

[SuperHornet]

Like I said on the Big Sky Board, the only beefs I have with Venus' picks are:

1. Kitties too high
2. Mr. Tiger is too low. (And a DB is NOT likely to produce a secondary last in the league.)
3. Personally, I believe Sac will be higher, but that quibble isn't big enough to outweigh the first two.
4. I'll keep my QB of the Year to myself as even my fellow Hornets will smack me for that.