My 2010 UNI game by game predictions/breakdown

[clenz]

11/13/10 vs. Missouri State (Senior Day)

Series History: UNI leads 25-5
10-7-06 UNI 38 MSU 7 - game at UNI
11-1-07 UNI 38 MSU 17 - game at MSU
11-8-08 UNI 42 MSU 0 - game at UNI
9-26-09 UNI 35 NSY 7 - game at MSU

My Thoughts:
UNI hasn’t been kind to former coach, now MSU coach, Terry Allen. This isn’t just a UNI not being kind to TA though, this is UNI not being kind to MSU period. UNI has treated MSU like ISUB, outscoring them 28-15 per game over the history of the series. MSU’s most recent victories at 2005 and 1998, then you have to go to the 80’s to find a win by MSU.

Those that follow the MVFC, and even FCS message boards, get to hear year after year after year about how next year is the year MSU finally breaks out. Their fan base is like the Cubs of the FCS. I think they will be improved from last years team. However, that won’t be hard to do as UNI shut them out 35-0 until the final 10 seconds of the game. UNI played 3rd stringers the entire second half last year, and MSU’s starters played the entire game. MSU drove the field calling TO’s and running only pass plays the final minute (mind you 1’s vs 3s) to get some points on the board against UNI.

Oh, and it's senior day at UNI so I expect a heck of a performance from UNI.


My Prediction:
UNI 42
MSU 10

[clenz]

11/20/10 at Western Illinois

Series History: UNI leads 26-12
12-28-06 UNI 13 WIU 24- game at UNI
10-20-07 UNI 42 WIU 3 - game at WIU
11-1-08 UNI 30 WIU 6 - game at WIU
11-14-09 UNI 34 WIU 0 - game at UNI

My Thoughts:
This series has been so lopsided the last 3 years that it is laughable. In 2007 and 2008 WIU had one of the top, if not the top, running backs in the nation with Herb Donaldson. Unfortunately for WIU, UNI had one of the top run defenses in the nation. UNI limited what Herb was able to get, and WIU had no other source of offense. In three years they have mustered three field goals. I would think they would finally get a TD this year, but unless things changed from their dismal year last year (losing to Indiana State, and finishing last in the conference). WIU was outscored 28-14 per game last year. They won only their first game of the season, when they beat Sam Houston State.

This is the last game of the season, making it senior day at WIU. If they don’t have a win at this point in the season they will either come out trying to pull an ISUR and keep UNI out of the playoffs, making them finish at 7-4 instead of 8-3. Or they will come out and feel like they have zero to play for and pack it in.

My Prediction:
UNI 38
WIU 3


UNI finishes the season 9-2 (7-1)

[clenz]

Post season possibilities:

I see the conference finishing this way
T1. SIU
T1. UNI
T3. SDSU
T3. ISUR
T3. YSU
6. MSU
7. NDSU
8. ISUB
9. WIU

SIU gets the Auto into the playoffs. I see UNI getting an at large, and possibly SDSU depending how they perform against the top teams in the conference, and how other things play out.

SIU and UNI will both host, and SDSU if they get in will get sent out to the BSC champion.

Neither SIU or UNI get a seed. I also have a inkling that SDSU will get pared in the same bracket as UNI or SDSU causing a round of 16 match up.

[clenz]

Alright folks there it is. Sorry the games weren't posted closer together and are split up by some other posts.


Feel free to bitch, rip apart, critique, agree, or whatever you feel like.

[Thumper 76]

Alright folks there it is. Sorry the games weren't posted closer together and are split up by some other posts.


Feel free to bitch, rip apart, critique, agree, or whatever you feel like.

I'm guessing you have SDSU losing to NDSU this year for their five and three record and making the playoffs? I'm guessing the other loss is to SIU?

[houndawg]

MSU?

[Thumper 76]

MSU?

Is not worthy of being in the conference standings

[clenz]

Alright folks there it is. Sorry the games weren't posted closer together and are split up by some other posts.


Feel free to bitch, rip apart, critique, agree, or whatever you feel like.

I'm guessing you have SDSU losing to NDSU this year for their five and three record and making the playoffs? I'm guessing the other loss is to SIU?

I'm predicting SDSU's loses to be UNI, SIU, and yes NDSU. For that reason I could easily see SDSU sitting there at 6-2 with SDSU and UNI. I think NDSU plays better at the end of the year than beginning of the year this year. I also think it will be tough for SDSU to beat NDSU for the fourth straight year, and in Fargo for the second straight time.


I think Coach Bohl is coaching for his job at that point, and NDSU players may rally around him. On the flip side, the players may not want him back after the last three years and him not being able to produce at the full D1 level and give up on him.

[clenz]

MSU?

Is not worthy of being in the conference standings

I have MSU added, and the rankings adjusted accordingly.

This was actually much harder to do than I thought it would be. I thought starting out I could just predict the games straight out, but I found myself looking at what the other schools had leading up to the game with UNI and the week after, where the bye weeks were, etc.. I basically had to predict every game of the season to do this. It was a lot of work, but a heck of a lot of fun and very educational with all of the teams.

[guinzone]

10/30/10 at Youngstown State
Series History: UNI leads 18-6
10-21-06 UNI 31 YSU 23 - game at YSU
10-27-07 UNI 14- YSU 13 - game at UNI
10-25-08 UNI21 YSU 20 - game at YSU
11-7-09 UNI 28 YSU 7 - game at UNI

My Thoughts:
YSU hasn’t beaten UNI since the year 2000. I believe Cap’n may still have had hair at that point. There have been some close games the past couple years. It took a 14 point 4th quarter in 2007 to beat YSU, and a freshman making a start on the road, along with some luck to beat them again in 2008. Last year things returned to normal with UNI winning by a more comfortable margine.

YSU has to win one of these games soon. The new staff at YSU seems to have the fan base as excited as they have been in a long time. The thing that worries me about this game is the time of kick off. It is a noon kick off in the Central Time zone. UNI is used to late afternoon kick offs. This seems like a minor thing, and it may be just a minor thing. However, athletes have routines. If players are used to a late afternoon kicks off and then a noon game comes up 700 miles away, and 3.5 states away, that rhythm is really messed with.

My prediction:
I hate this prediction most of all. I think YSU gets this one in a close one, only because it is at YSU

UNI 17
YSU 20


UNI 5-3 (3-2)

Haha, although UNI has dominated the series, a number of games could have gone either way. 2006-2007-2008 all by a touchdown or less. What was it in 2004 when you guys missed a game winning FG, but the refs bailed you out on a roughing the kicker and you then went on to kick the game winning FG?

I hope you are right. This is the game on the schedule Penguin fans are looking forward to the most this year.

[Thumper 76]

I'm predicting SDSU's loses to be UNI, SIU, and yes NDSU. For that reason I could easily see SDSU sitting there at 6-2 with SDSU and UNI. I think NDSU plays better at the end of the year than beginning of the year this year. I also think it will be tough for SDSU to beat NDSU for the fourth straight year, and in Fargo for the second straight time.


I think Coach Bohl is coaching for his job at that point, and NDSU players may rally around him. On the flip side, the players may not want him back after the last three years and him not being able to produce at the full D1 level and give up on him.

That's a fair assesment. I think we need to win at least one of those road games this year. Really badly, if we are going to look like a team that could do damage in the playoffs. I think we pull out one of those games, possibly two, because we now have the mojo of the rivalry, and I don't think NDSU will be back to form yet this year. They have brought in some building blocks, and will be better, but not enough to climb the hump. Also I suspect two because playing SIU is the opposite of playing at UNI, we play better there. But that is, of course, from my homer optomistic point of view.

This was actually much harder to do than I thought it would be. I thought starting out I could just predict the games straight out, but I found myself looking at what the other schools had leading up to the game with UNI and the week after, where the bye weeks were, etc.. I basically had to predict every game of the season to do this. It was a lot of work, but a heck of a lot of fun and very educational with all of the teams.

I did the same thing on SDSUfans and found the same thing, it vastly increases your knowledge of the other teams by doing this. I didn't go quite as far back or in depth in the history or stats, but did the same basic deal. Maybe if I get some gumption later I'll post mine.

[tampajag]

Sorry I got pissy bout that Just a bit touchy when people say stuff like that since we get it all the time from those jack-offs from up north and from all the Minnesota pricks last year. Good write ups by the way, putting some good work into them.

I was about ready to flip out as well, I am getting so tired of the we beat ourselves BS that every team in the country uses when they lose to us, especially from ndsu, Georgia Southern, Minnesota, some UNI fans. It's just stupid. People just can't except that we just happen to be a much better team now in FCS then we ever were in DII. People can't except that we happen to defend our home field very well. It's just getting old.

If it makes you feel better, when you beat Southern in 04, that was all you guys. Those guys on the lines dwarfed our guys.