Playoffs: Where we stand, penultimate edition (11/14)

[bench]

This is where it gets easy. Coming into this week, we were pretty sure that 15 of the 16 bids were spoken for as long as everything went as expected, and that there were still a bunch of teams with work left to do still alive for the single remaining slot. After this weekend, those locked-up bids have solidified, and the list of challengers has dwindled to a more manageable number: four.

The field, minus one (auto-bids in bold):

Big Sky: One bid — Montana
CAA: Four bids — (North) New Hampshire; (South) Villanova, Richmond, William & Mary
MEAC: One bid — South Carolina St.
MVC: Three bids — Southern Illinois, South Dakota St., Northern Iowa
OVC: One bid — Eastern Illinois
Patriot: One bid — Holy Cross
SoCon: Two bids — Appalachian St., Elon
SLC: Two bids — Stephen F. Austin, McNeese St.

The wrap on an eventful weekend:

• The Big Sky is the only conference left that can have any impact on who gets into the field the final week of the season. Montana St. has to beat Montana in the Brawl, Eastern Washington has to beat Northern Arizona, and Weber St. has to beat Cal Poly. If all of these things come to pass, it's probably a toss-up between Montana St. and EWU. The Bobcats will have the best win by beating Montana, but EWU will have a better record and is probably the better team. Weber wouldn't have MSU's signature win, and they wouldn't have EWU's record. They do have the head-to-head win over EWU, so expect much wailing and gnashing of teeth if Weber gets passed over by the committee in favor of EWU. Of course, it could turn out that none of these things happen, which means the final bid, by default, goes to...
• Liberty, provided they win at Stony Brook. Because frankly we will have run out of options at this point.
• After UMass lost to JMU and Delaware fell to Navy, the only thing left to play for in the CAA is the auto-bid and potential seeding. Villanova gets the nod with a win against UD, while the winner of the Richmond/William & Mary game also needs a 'Nova loss.
• UNI handily dispatched Western Illinois today, and the Panthers are in as long as they can avoid shitting the bed against a mediocre Illinois St. team.
• It's hard to fathom after their loss to Western Carolina, but EKU can still steal the OVC auto-bid from Eastern Illinois. However, a miracle of this magnitude might require a spate of ritualistic human sacrifice to an angry, vengeful god, since they need to beat Jacksonville St. on the road and get a EIU loss to lowly Tennessee State.
• Appalachian is now a lock after winning the SoCon auto. Elon falls to the at-large, and would probably make it in even with a loss to Samford next week, but since they can't be assured of an at-large if they finish by dropping two in a row, I can't be too confident in that happening, either. Let's just move on to the Southland before I change my mind altogether.
• Stephen F. Austin and McNeese St. punched their tickets today. All that's left is determining the auto-bid, and finishing with winless Northwestern St. gives SFA the edge.

An attempt at seeds and pairings should be coming...soonish. My dead ass is going to bed.

[Mvemjsunpx]

So who do you think gets in if disaster strikes: EWU, Weber, MSU, and Liberty all lose?

I'm guessing Lafayette, but who knows…



How the seeds look:

Montana, SIU, & Villanova should get the top-3 seeds if they take care of business (probably SIU-#1, Nova-#2, and Montana-#3 given that the Griz don't have an all-DI schedule).

If the top-3 get their wins, the #4 seed will either go to App State or the Richmond/W&M winner.

[weberwildcat]

Wouldn't MSU be automatic if they beat UM? even if EWU and WSU also win?

If MSU, EWU, WSU were all to win on Sat and all tied 6-2 in conf...

MSU would be 2-1 vs the #1 and the 3 way tied teams for 2nd (beat UM & WSU)
EWU would be 1-2 (beat MSU)
WSU would be 1-2 (beat EWU)

Big Sky Final Standings
1. UM 8-0
2. MSU 6-2
2. WSU 6-2 (already complete)
2. EWU 6-2

[SouthDakotaGrizzly]

Wouldn't MSU be automatic if they beat UM? even if EWU and WSU also win?

If MSU, EWU, WSU were all to win on Sat and all tied 6-2 in conf...

MSU would be 2-1 vs the #1 and the 3 way tied teams for 2nd (beat UM & WSU)
EWU would be 1-2 (beat MSU)
WSU would be 1-2 (beat EWU)

Big Sky Final Standings
1. UM 8-0
2. MSU 6-2
2. WSU 6-2 (already complete)
2. EWU 6-2

It would seem so, but you never know what the committee is going to decide. If EWU wins at NAU, they'd have the same conference record and a win over MSU, so the committee might give the bid to them instead. The biggest flaw in MSU's playoff plan is that they have to beat UM, which just isn't gonna happen .

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Wouldn't MSU be automatic if they beat UM? even if EWU and WSU also win?

If MSU, EWU, WSU were all to win on Sat and all tied 6-2 in conf...

MSU would be 2-1 vs the #1 and the 3 way tied teams for 2nd (beat UM & WSU)
EWU would be 1-2 (beat MSU)
WSU would be 1-2 (beat EWU)

Big Sky Final Standings
1. UM 8-0
2. MSU 6-2
2. WSU 6-2 (already complete)
2. EWU 6-2

It would seem so, but you never know what the committee is going to decide. If EWU wins at NAU, they'd have the same conference record and a win over MSU, so the committee might give the bid to them instead. The biggest flaw in MSU's playoff plan is that they have to beat UM, which just isn't gonna happen .

Not be negative on this one but it very well could happen. The MSU defense seems to set up pretty well against our offense. I sure don't think playing MSU at their house with the team they have is gonna be an easy task. If Terran Hillesland isn't at 100% then their front four is gonna be even more of a problem than it would have been.

[SouthDakotaGrizzly]

It would seem so, but you never know what the committee is going to decide. If EWU wins at NAU, they'd have the same conference record and a win over MSU, so the committee might give the bid to them instead. The biggest flaw in MSU's playoff plan is that they have to beat UM, which just isn't gonna happen .

Not be negative on this one but it very well could happen. The MSU defense seems to set up pretty well against our offense. I sure don't think playing MSU at their house with the team they have is gonna be an easy task. If Terran Hillesland isn't at 100% then their front four is gonna be even more of a problem than it would have been.

I certainly don't think it'll be the 35-3 blowout we saw last year, but I still think the Griz pull it out. If Akpla is out for the Cats, that hurts their passing game and the Griz D has been better against the run this year. It may very well come down to the final drive, and I like Montana's odds in that situation (refer to the NAU, UC-Davis, EWU and ISU games this year).

[AppGuy04]

Elon would be out with a loss next week IMO.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Not be negative on this one but it very well could happen. The MSU defense seems to set up pretty well against our offense. I sure don't think playing MSU at their house with the team they have is gonna be an easy task. If Terran Hillesland isn't at 100% then their front four is gonna be even more of a problem than it would have been.

I certainly don't think it'll be the 35-3 blowout we saw last year, but I still think the Griz pull it out. If Akpla is out for the Cats, that hurts their passing game and the Griz D has been better against the run this year. It may very well come down to the final drive, and I like Montana's odds in that situation (refer to the NAU, UC-Davis, EWU and ISU games this year).

I hear ya there but they are built pretty well to stop/slow down what we're gonna try to do. I think we will have to have a few real good individual efforts to put up the 35 or so we will definitely need to win this thing. I hope I am totally wrong but as you said I think this one will be in doubt until the final minute.

[weberwildcat]

MSU has won 3 of the last 5 against UM in Bozeman unless I'm wrong. So I guess since its an instate game MSU should have a real chance.

If WSU is in 2nd alone when all is said and done does my team make it or would that mean 1 team from the Big Sky?

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

MSU has won 3 of the last 5 against UM in Bozeman unless I'm wrong. So I guess since its an instate game MSU should have a real chance.

If WSU is in 2nd alone when all is said and done does my team make it or would that mean 1 team from the Big Sky?

It's 2 of the last 5 in Bozeman. They won in Bozeman in 03 & 05.

I don't know what's gonna happen and can't even figure where the committee might go on this thing. If MSU wins then I think they get in. If they lose then for whatever reason I think the only other team having a shot at an at large is EWU. I definitely think that the BSC should be more than a 1 bidder this year but that may very well be the way this plays out.

[bench]

So who do you think gets in if disaster strikes: EWU, Weber, MSU, and Liberty all lose?

I'm guessing Lafayette, but who knows…



How the seeds look:

Montana, SIU, & Villanova should get the top-3 seeds if they take care of business (probably SIU-#1, Nova-#2, and Montana-#3 given that the Griz don't have an all-DI schedule).

If the top-3 get their wins, the #4 seed will either go to App State or the Richmond/W&M winner.

Even in a doomsday scenario where all four teams lose, I think Liberty would still get the bid. There wouldn't be any teams left from power conferences with 7 D-I wins, and Liberty would be a better choice than Lafayette, Florida A&M, Prairie View A&M, or Central Connecticut State.

The seeds are probably all but set. I don't think SIU or Montana can do anything next week to lose a seed, but they could lose their way to a lower seed. Villanova gets a seed if they beat Delaware, and probably even if they don't, and the winner of the Richmond/William & Mary game gets the last one. There really isn't anything App can do next week to pass the CAA teams, SIU and Montana, but I would love to be wrong about this. Seeding isn't about attendance, and it isn't about who's playing well at the end of the season. It's about who had the best body of work in the regular season, and I can't in good conscience give App the homer nod over any of the other five options.

[Appaholic]

The seeds are probably all but set. I don't think SIU or Montana can do anything next week to lose a seed, but they could lose their way to a lower seed. Villanova gets a seed if they beat Delaware, and probably even if they don't, and the winner of the Richmond/William & Mary game gets the last one. There really isn't anything App can do next week to pass the CAA teams, SIU and Montana, but I would love to be wrong about this. Seeding isn't about attendance, and it isn't about who's playing well at the end of the season. It's about who had the best body of work in the regular season, and I can't in good conscience give App the homer nod over any of the other five options.

Agree. App shit themselves against McNeese...win that & they get the seed after losing by only 5 on the road against ECU...what a shame...place that one on Wiley's shoulders. But, we didn't have the seed in '06 either &, thanks to EWU's win (ironically over McNeese), we had homefield for playoffs....given the turbulence of this regular season nationally, don't be surprised if this scenario happens again.....or if we get bounced 2nd round (dear god no... ). Good analysis Bench....as usual...

[Skjellyfetti]

I think the committee uses some pretty subjective standards for choosing seeds. There is a vague sentence about how the seeds are awarded and no real criteria listed in the handbook:

The top four teams in the 16-team bracket for the championship will be seeded.

http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_ha ... ndbook.pdf

That's all it says on how seeds are awarded. What criteria is used to determine the "top four teams"? I have no idea.

Look at last year's playoff field... MVC champ UNI got the nod over a second CAA team in Villanova. Villanova was ranked 4 in the last GPI. UNI was ranked 8. Their losses were very comparable... UNI lost to BYU and SIU. Nova lost to West Virginia and JMU. I guess it's debatable... but, it looks to me like Villanova had the better resume.

I think UNI got the seed over Nova due to attendance/bid.

I also think the committee is very hesitant to give two seeds to the same conference.

Y'all have been following it a lot longer than I have... so, I'm very open to the fact that I could be wrong. I'm also not saying App deserves the seed over everyone else and if they aren't given a seed it will be a travesty or anything. Just saying... I think the committee uses criteria that we do not know to decide on the seeds.

[bench]

The seeds are probably all but set. I don't think SIU or Montana can do anything next week to lose a seed, but they could lose their way to a lower seed. Villanova gets a seed if they beat Delaware, and probably even if they don't, and the winner of the Richmond/William & Mary game gets the last one. There really isn't anything App can do next week to pass the CAA teams, SIU and Montana, but I would love to be wrong about this. Seeding isn't about attendance, and it isn't about who's playing well at the end of the season. It's about who had the best body of work in the regular season, and I can't in good conscience give App the homer nod over any of the other five options.

Agree. App shit themselves against McNeese...win that & they get the seed after losing by only 5 on the road against ECU...what a shame...place that one on Wiley's shoulders. But, we didn't have the seed in '06 either &, thanks to EWU's win (ironically over McNeese), we had homefield for playoffs....given the turbulence of this regular season nationally, don't be surprised if this scenario happens again.....or if we get bounced 2nd round (dear god no... ). Good analysis Bench....as usual...

Speaking of Wiley, ain't it funny how he's went from being the leading asshole in the state to a certified genius in less than a month?

Look at last year's playoff field... MVC champ UNI got the nod over a second CAA team in Villanova. Villanova was ranked 4 in the last GPI. UNI was ranked 8. Their losses were very comparable... UNI lost to BYU and SIU. Nova lost to West Virginia and JMU. I guess it's debatable... but, it looks to me like Villanova had the better resume.

I think UNI got the seed over Nova due to attendance/bid.

I also think the committee is very hesitant to give two seeds to the same conference.

Y'all have been following it a lot longer than I have... so, I'm very open to the fact that I could be wrong. I'm also not saying App deserves the seed over everyone else and if they aren't given a seed it will be a travesty or anything. Just saying... I think the committee uses criteria that we do not know to decide on the seeds.

Actually, that's a pretty good point when you look at last year's seeds. It's entirely possible App could get a seed, but it's hard to think of any objective on-the-field criteria that would put them over a second CAA team. Finishing the season by (hypothetically) winning nine in a row? Getting progressively better as the season went along? Ranking the playoff teams in the order of "who wouldn't you want to play in December?" Those are all fairly subjective.

Now, if their reasoning was something objective I haven't thought of yet that could make an already close decision more justifiable, I wouldn't have any problem with it. But if we get a seed just because we fill in that precious tick-box of "putting asses in seats" or because of conference considerations, I don't know if I would really want it. There's going to be resentment, and there's going to be more pressure on the kids to prove they deserve it.

[BlueHen86]

So who do you think gets in if disaster strikes: EWU, Weber, MSU, and Liberty all lose?

I'm guessing Lafayette, but who knows…

Even in a doomsday scenario where all four teams lose, I think Liberty would still get the bid. There wouldn't be any teams left from power conferences with 7 D-I wins, and Liberty would be a better choice than Lafayette, Florida A&M, Prairie View A&M, or Central Connecticut State.

If all four teams lose and Lafayette wins I think 9-2 Lafayette gets in over 8-3 Liberty.

If Lafayette also loses then I think 9-2 Colgate might get in. Colgate already has 9 FCS wins. I don't see Liberty getting in if they lose next week.