Top Rankings for Computer and Human Poll Biases - 11/07

[eastbayaggie]

Top Rankings for Computer and Human Poll Biases - Week after 11/07 Games*


Top 10 Teams Whose Rankings are Biased Towards the Computer's Favor

1 James Madison (4-5) 0.428 (Last Week's Ranking #4)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #13, #13, #14, #17, #19
Human Rankings: #33-34(Tied), #36, #Unranked

2 Northern Arizona (5-4) 0.408 (Last Week's Ranking #1)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #12, #14, #16, #16, #19
Human Rankings: #29, #31, #31

3 Delaware (6-3) 0.378 (Last Week's Ranking #2)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #11, #11, #12, #13, #13
Human Rankings: #20, #23, #23

4 Massachusetts (5-4) 0.335 (Last Week's Ranking #3)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #15, #17, #17, #18, #19
Human Rankings: #27, #30-31(Tied), #34

5 Eastern Washington (6-3) 0.249 (Last Week's Ranking #6)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #10, #11, #11, #13, #16
Human Rankings: #18, #18, #18

6 South Dakota State (7-2) 0.235 (Last Week's Ranking #10)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #7, #7, #7, #7, #8
Human Rankings: #12, #12, #12

7 Jacksonville State (6-3) 0.217 (Last Week's Ranking #7)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #10, #11, #12, #12, #12
Human Rankings: #15, #17, #17

8 Montana State (6-3) 0.178 (Last Week's Ranking #14)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #19, #20, #20, #20, #22
Human Rankings: #23, #29, #30

9 Northern Iowa (6-3) 0.178 (Last Week's Ranking #8)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #6, #6, #7, #7, #9
Human Rankings: #11, #11, #11

10 Weber State (5-4) 0.124 (Last Week's Ranking #11)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #15, #15, #15, #16, #27
Human Rankings: #19, #19, #22


Dropped Out of Top 10

Southern Utah
Cal Poly SLO


Top 10 Teams Whose Rankings Are Biased Towards the Human Poll's Favor

1 McNeese State (7-2) -0.539 (Last Week's Ranking #1)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #21, #22, #25, #26, #27
Human Rankings: #10, #10, #10

2 Holy Cross (8-1) -0.412 (Last Week's Ranking #2)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #23, #24, #31, #32, #32
Human Rankings: #13, #13, #14

3 Appalachian State (7-2) -0.270 (Last Week's Ranking #3)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #10, #10, #14, #15, #21
Human Rankings: #7, #7, #8

4 South Carolina State (8-1) -0.220 (Last Week's Ranking #10)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #13, #13, #15, #16, #18
Human Rankings: #9, #9, #9

5 SF Austin (7-2) -0.216 (Last Week's Ranking #19)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #20, #20, #21, #23, #25
Human Rankings: #14, #15, #17

6 Liberty (7-2) -0.213 (Last Week's Ranking #4)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #21, #22, #22, #22, #23
Human Rankings: #16, #16, #16

7 Prairie View (6-1) -0.194 (Last Week's Ranking #9)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #36, #39, #40, #43, #44
Human Rankings: #19, #21, #24

8 Florida A&M (7-2) -0.187 (Last Week's Ranking #8)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #29, #33, #38, #40, #41
Human Rankings: #21, #22, #22

9 Eastern Illinois (7-2) -0.122 (Last Week's Ranking #7)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #17, #18, #18, #19, #19
Human Rankings: #13, #14, #15

10 Montana (9-0) -0.101 (Last Week's Ranking #15)
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #4, #4, #5, #5, #6
Human Rankings: #1, #2, #3


Dropped Out of Top 10

Colgate
Central Arkansas


*Computer Rankings: (% of points of Massey, Sagarin, Laz Index, Keeper, Self, Ashburn, and Sauceda (-high and low rankings))/5
Human Poll: (% of points AGS + % of points SN + % of points coaches poll)/3
Bias = Computer Rankings - Human Poll


Bonus Ranking

Top 3 Teams Whose Rankings are Biased Between Human Polls

1 Prairie View 0.159** % of points of TSN poll - % of points of AGS poll
2 Delaware 0.110 *** % of points of AGS poll - % of points of FCS poll
3 Colgate 0.101 **** % of points of TSN poll - % of points of AGS poll

** Prairie View received 741 points out of 135 voters in the The Sports Network poll and only 228 points out of 90 voters in the Any Given Saturday poll.
*** Delaware received 536 points out of 90 voters in the Any Given Saturday poll and only 90 points out of 28 voters in the FCS Coaches poll.
**** Colgate received 392 points out of 135 voters in The Sports Network poll and only 35 points out of 90 voters in the Any Given Saturday poll.

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/stat ... 09gpi.html

[dbackjon]

Great analysis as always. One thing the top group mostly has in common is strength of schedule which humans dint seem to process very well

[danefan]

Its amazing to me how much larger these variances have gotten as the season has progressed. When he started this analysis, there didn't appear to be any variance over 0.1. Now we're up 0.5.

I wonder if that is due to conference play and teams losing in-conference to teams they shouldn't lose to.