Playoff Projections- Nov. 8

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

HOW THEY STACK UP
Here is how the auto bids would go at this point with the team ranked the highest or the current winner of the league tie-breaker getting the auto bid

AUTO BIDS
BIG SKY: Montana (6-0) 9-0
Key Wins: UC Davis; Northern Arizona; Cal Poly; Eastern Washington, Weber State
Key Losses: None.
Key Games Left: Montana State
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

CAA: Villanova (5-1) 8-1
Key Wins: Temple; William & Mary; James Madison; Richmond
Key Losses: New Hampshire
Key Games Left: Delaware
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

MEAC: SC State (6-0) 8-1
Key Wins: Grambling State; Florida A&M; Hampton
Key Losses: South Carolina
Key Games Left: Morgan State; NC A&T
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

MVFC: Southern Illinois (7-0) 8-1
Key Wins: UNI; YSU; South Dakota State
Key Losses: Marshall
Key Games Left: Missouri State
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

OVC: Eastern Illinois (5-1) 7-2
Key Wins: Jacksonville State
Key Losses: Eastern Kentucky; Penn State
Key Games Left: UT Martin; Tennessee State
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

PATRIOT LEAGUE: Holy Cross (4-0) 8-1
Key Wins: Harvard; Colgate, Fordham
Key Losses: Brown
Key Games Left: Lafayette
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

SOCON: Elon (6-0) 8-1
Key Wins: Georgia Southern; Furman; The Citadel; Chattanooga
Key Losses: Wake Forest
Key Games Left: Appalachian State
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

SOUTHLAND: Southeastern Louisiana (4-1) 6-3
Key Wins: Texas State, Central Arkansas
Key Losses: Ole Miss, South Dakota, McNeese State
Key Games Left: Stephen F. Austin
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

AT-LARGE
BIG SKY Candidates
Eastern Washington (5-2) 6-3
Key Wins: Montana State; Portland State
Key Losses: California; Weber State; Montana
Key Games Left: Southern Utah; Northern Arizona
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

Montana State (4-2) 6-3
Key Wins: Weber State; South Dakota; Portland State
Key Losses: Michigan State; Northern Arizona; Eastern Washington
Key Games Left: Montana
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

CAA Candidates
Richmond (6-1) 8-1
Key Wins: Duke; Delaware; Hofstra; James Madison; UMASS
Key Losses: Villanova
Key Games Left: William & Mary
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

New Hampshire (5-1) 8-1
Key Wins: Ball State; Villanova; Hofstra
Key Losses: UMASS
Key Games Left: William & Mary
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

William & Mary (5-1) 8-1
Key Wins: Virginia; Delaware; James Madison
Key Losses: Villanova
Key Games Left: New Hampshire; Richmond
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

Delaware (4-3) 6-3
Key Wins: UMASS; Hofstra
Key Losses: Richmond; William & Mary, James Madison
Key Games Left: Navy; Villanova
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

BIG SOUTH Candidates
Liberty: (4-0) 7-2
Key Wins: Lafayette; Coastal Carolina
Key Losses: West Virginia; James Madison
Key Games Left: Gardner-Webb; Stony Brook
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

MEAC Candidates
Florida A&M (5-1) 7-2
Key Wins: Tennessee State, Morgan State; NC A&T
Key Losses: Miami; SC State
Key Games Left: Hampton
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

MVFC Candidates
South Dakota State (6-1) 7-2
Key Wins: Georgia Southern; Missouri State; Northern Iowa; Youngstown State
Key Losses: Cal Poly; Southern Illinois
Key Games Left: Minnesota
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

Northern Iowa (4-2) 6-3
Key Wins: Missouri State; Youngstown State
Key Losses: Iowa; Southern Illinois; South Dakota State
Key Games Left: Illinois State
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

OVC Candidates
Eastern Kentucky (5-2) 5-4
Key Wins: Eastern Illinois; Tenn.-Martin
Key Losses: Indiana; Tennessee State; Austin Peay; Kentucky
Key Games Left: Jacksonville State
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

PATRIOT LEAGUE Candidates
Lafayette (4-0) 8-1
Key Wins: Penn; Yale; Harvard; Fordham; Colgate
Key Losses: Liberty
Key Games Left: Holy Cross
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

SOCON Candidates
Appalachian State (6-0) 7-2
Key Wins: Samford, The Citadel; Georgia Southern, Furman; Chattanooga
Key Losses: East Carolina; McNeese State
Key Games Left: Elon
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

SOUTHLAND Candidates
McNeese State (4-1) 7-2
Key Wins: Appalachian State; SE Louisiana
Key Losses: Tulane; Stephen F. Austin
Key Games Left: Texas State; Central Arkansas
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

Stephen F. Austin (4-1) 7-2
Key Wins: McNeese State; Central Arkansas
Key Losses: SMU, Texas State
Key Games Left: SE Louisiana
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

Texas State (4-1) 6-3
Key Wins: Stephen F. Austin; Central Arkansas
Key Losses: TCU; Southern Utah; SELU
Key Games Left: McNeese State
GPI:
TSN Rank:
AGS Rank:
Coaches Rank:

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

I posted the current resume of every team that looks to have a legit shot at the playoffs at this point and you can see who the auto bids would be.

For each at-large candidate here is what they must do to get in

Eastern Washington- Has tough games against Southern utah and NAU. At 6-3 they must win out but if they do they are in.

Montana State- At 6-3 they could get in if they win out but that includes beating Montana.

Richmond- At 8-1 and the defending champs the Spiders are already in. There is no way the committee says no to them. Although they can get back in the mix for a seed if they win out, including a win over W&M.

New Hampshire- At 8-1 they are pretty much in as well but winning out, including beating W&M, would put them in position to argue for a seed.

William & Mary- They are also 8-1 and pretty much in the field already but with big games against UNH and Richmond they could solidify a top 4 seed, and possibly argue for the #1 seed with their only loss being to likely #2 or #3 Villanova if Montana and Villanova were to lose late. I don't see it happening though as I think they won't get a seed.

Delaware- They already have 3 losses and most would not mention the Blue Hens but if they can beat Navy and Villanova they will get in for sure. The only problem is that it does not look like they have a shot in either game as they have lost to every current top 25 team and even JMU on the season.

Liberty- They have two tough Big South tilts with GW and SB but could have a solid argument as long as they win out.

FAMU- If they win out they will be 9-2 with losses only to top 10 SC State and FBS Miami. With just Hampton left among tough games it looks like they will win out but they would still be on the bubble.

South Dakota State- The loss to SIU hurts but they are 7-2 and only have one tough game left in Minnesota. If they split the last two they are in.

Northern Iowa- Their near win of Iowa does not look as good now but is still very impressive and with just one tough game left in Illinois State it is likely UNI will win out and that would put them in.

Eastern Kentucky- Their only way in is to win the OVC auto bid as they have four losses already.

Lafayette- Could clinch the PL auto bid with a win over Holy Cross this weekend but if they finish 9-2 is there any way they get an at-large? Not likely so they are in a must win this weekend.

Appalachian State- At 7-2 the Apps are in if they just win this weekend as their game with Elon will be for the SoCon AQ.

McNeese State- The Cowboys are in a log jam at the top of the SLC with SFA, Texas State, and SELU. If they win just one more game they are likely in though. The Texas State game is looking to be a big one.

SFA- Their big game left is SELU this weekend and if they win they are definitely in.

Texas State- They already have 3 losses so they must win out, including defeat McNeese State, to get in.

[dbackjon]

You forgot three Big Sky teams that if they win out are more deserving than Delaware, FAmu, patriot league etc.

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

As of right now based on the tie breakers here are the AQs to date:

Auto Bids
Big Sky: Montana 9-0
CAA: Villanova 8-1
MEAC: SC State 8-1
MVFC: Southern Illinois 8-1 (clinched)
OVC: Eastern Illinois 7-2
Patriot League: Holy Cross 8-1
SoCon: Elon 8-1
SLC: Southeastern Louisiana 6-3

At-Large

IN
CAA Richmond 8-1
CAA New Hampshire 8-1
CAA William & Mary 8-1

NEED JUST ONE MORE WIN
MVFC South Dakota State 7-2
SoCon Appalachian State 7-2
Southland McNeese State 7-2
Southland Stephen F. Austin 7-2

BUBBLE TEAMS
CAA Delaware 6-3 (must win out)
Big Sky Eastern Washington 6-3 (must win out)
Big South Liberty 7-2 (really needs to win out)
MEAC Florida A&M 7-2 (really needs to win out)
MVFC Northern Iowa 6-3 (must win out)
OVC Eastern Kentucky 5-4 (can only get in by winning auto bid)
Patriot League Lafayette 8-1
Southland Texas State 6-3 (must win out)

With all of that said here is who I think the 8 AQs and 8 At-Large bids will be.

Auto Bids
Big Sky: Montana 9-0
CAA: Villanova 8-1
MEAC: SC State 8-1
MVFC: Southern Illinois 8-1
OVC: Eastern Illinois 7-2
Patriot League: Holy Cross 8-1
SoCon: Appalachian State 7-2
SLC: McNeese State 7-2

At-Large
Big Sky Eastern Washington 6-3
CAA Richmond 8-1
CAA New Hampshire 8-1
CAA William & Mary 8-1
MVFC Northern Iowa 6-3
MVFC South Dakota State 7-2
SoCon Elon 8-1
Southland Stephen F. Austin 7-2

TOP TWO OUT
Big South Liberty 7-2
MEAC Florida A&M 7-2

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

You forgot three Big Sky teams that if they win out are more deserving than Delaware, FAmu, patriot league etc.

I was in the middle of adding in Montana State and just now saw your post. NAU is pretty much done with 4 losses. The only way anyone outside of Montana and EWU are getting in at this point is if Montana loses the last two games or at least loses to Montana State. I believe Montana is going to win out though and that would leave only EWU with a spot.

Before anyone says anything about Butler or any NEC team there is no way the committee even talks about those schools over someone like Montana State, FAMU, Lafayette, Liberty, etc. at this point so I left them out. A lot of teams would have to lose this weekend and have complete meltdowns here late in the year for them to come in the picture. If those melt downs happen then I will look to add those others.

[kalm]

FAMU gets to count Tennessee State, Morgan State and NC A&T as key wins but EWU only gets to count MSU? I think you should at least include Western Oregon.

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

FAMU gets to count Tennessee State, Morgan State and NC A&T as key wins but EWU only gets to count MSU? I think you should at least include Western Oregon.

With MSU and NCA&T improved this year I thought I would list them. Meant to have Portland State in there for EWU. Just corrected it.

[kalm]

FAMU gets to count Tennessee State, Morgan State and NC A&T as key wins but EWU only gets to count MSU? I think you should at least include Western Oregon.

With MSU and NCA&T improved this year I thought I would list them. Meant to have Portland State in there for EWU. Just corrected it.

Just giving you a hard time. Good job on your analysis.

I would however put Sac St. ahead of PSU.

[UNHWildCats]

You forgot three Big Sky teams that if they win out are more deserving than Delaware, FAmu, patriot league etc.

Montana
Montana State
Eastern Washington
Northern Arizona
Weber State

All mathematically alive for at-large bids. Each besides Montana will fail to get to 7 Div I wins with one more loss

Weber State and Northern Arizona play eliminating one of them.

Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington play eliminating one of them...

If Delaware is eligible they would have wins against Navy, Villanova, Massachusetts and a 1 point loss to Richmond, that would trump a possible Montana State bid with its best wins against Montana and Weber State.

If Eastern Washington qualifies, they would have wins against Northern Arizona, Southern Utah and Montana State as its best wins, again, this wouldn't stack well against Delaware's resume.

If Weber State qualifies, their resume stacks up better to a possible Delaware one, though still falls short. Wins against Northern Arizona, Cal Poly and Eastern Washington are nice and the close losses to two FBS teams may help, Delaware still has the advantage here.

If Northern Arizona wins out and qualifies, they may have the best argument. Close loss to Montana and wins vs Weber, Eastern Washington, Montana State and Southern Utah may get them in ahead of Delaware.

In the end, I see two Big Sky teams being eligible, Montana and Northern Arizona and both will get in because Delaware won't win either of its final two games so this whole argument won't matter.

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

With all of this said, here is who I project as seeds.

1) Montana- If they are undefeated and combining that with their attendance and history they are getting the #1 seed for sure.
2) Villanova- If they win out they will likely be #1 or #2 in GPI and will get the nod.
3) SIU- Very deserving of a seed as long as they win out with the big win over SDSU this weekend.
4) App State- I am projecting that they will win out and a 9-2 ASU team with their history, attendance, etc. will get two home games, possibly even vault over SIU, which would make the semis make more sense if the seeds advance to match up Nova and ASU and Montana and SIU.

The other four teams with home games all depend on who out bids each other. This is just a wild guess.

BRACKET
Northern Iowa @ (1) Montana
Stephen F. Austin @ South Dakota State

New Hampshire @ (4) Appalachian State
Elon @ Richmond

Eastern Illinois (3) Southern Illinois
South Carolina State @ William & Mary

Eastern Washington @ McNeese State
Holy Cross @ (2) Villanova

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

You forgot three Big Sky teams that if they win out are more deserving than Delaware, FAmu, patriot league etc.

Montana
Montana State
Eastern Washington
Northern Arizona
Weber State

All mathematically alive for at-large bids. Each besides Montana will fail to get to 7 Div I wins with one more loss

Weber State and Northern Arizona play eliminating one of them.

Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington play eliminating one of them...

If Delaware is eligible they would have wins against Navy, Villanova, Massachusetts and a 1 point loss to Richmond, that would trump a possible Montana State bid with its best wins against Montana and Weber State.

If Eastern Washington qualifies, they would have wins against Northern Arizona, Southern Utah and Montana State as its best wins, again, this wouldn't stack well against Delaware's resume.

If Weber State qualifies, their resume stacks up better to a possible Delaware one, though still falls short. Wins against Northern Arizona, Cal Poly and Eastern Washington are nice and the close losses to two FBS teams may help, Delaware still has the advantage here.

If Northern Arizona wins out and qualifies, they may have the best argument. Close loss to Montana and wins vs Weber, Eastern Washington, Montana State and Southern Utah may get them in ahead of Delaware.

In the end, I see two Big Sky teams being eligible, Montana and Northern Arizona and both will get in because Delaware won't win either of its final two games so this whole argument won't matter.

Yes there are a lot of BSC teams alive but I really only see 3 teams that I could possibly see getting in and I project MSU to lose to Montana thus I only see EWU and Montana with a real shot at getting in outside of an upset there.

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

With MSU and NCA&T improved this year I thought I would list them. Meant to have Portland State in there for EWU. Just corrected it.

Just giving you a hard time. Good job on your analysis.

I would however put Sac St. ahead of PSU.

PSU has been good before but I don't even remember the last time Sac State won 7 or 8 games in a season.

[grizband]

Just giving you a hard time. Good job on your analysis.

I would however put Sac St. ahead of PSU.

PSU has been good before but I don't even remember the last time Sac State won 7 or 8 games in a season.

You have you go back to 2000 to find the last season Sac State won 7 games; they also won six games last year.

[native]

Small College Fan,

You included Montana State and Eastern Washington, but not Weber State or Northern Arizona as Big Sky at-large candidates.

Why the omission? Are you counting DII wins?!??? Unlike your picks EWU and MSU, neither WSU or NAU have played a sub-DI team this season.

The Wildcats are currently second in the Big Sky, and own the head-to head victory on the road over the third place team, Eastern Washington. Moreover, Weber gets to play its last two games versus NAU and Cal Poly at home.

The Lumberjacks are sitting fourth in conference play, own the head-to-head over the fifth place team, Montana State, and get to play EWU at home.

Division I Records of the Big Sky contenders:

Weber State 5-4
Eastern Washington 5-3
Northern Arizona 5-4
Montana State 5-3

Note that the MAXIMUM number of DI victories any of these four contenders can possibly garner in the regular season is SEVEN, so the Big Sky is most likely fighting for that last at-large bid.

[native]

...
Yes there are a lot of BSC teams alive but I really only see 3 teams that I could possibly see getting in and I project MSU to lose to Montana thus I only see EWU and Montana with a real shot at getting in outside of an upset there.

Again, why are you omitting Weber, currently sitting in second place in the Big Sky and the most likely of the BSC at-large contenders to finish with 7 DI wins?

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

Small College Fan,

You included Montana State and Eastern Washington, but not Weber State or Northern Arizona as Big Sky at-large candidates.

Why the omission? Are you counting DII wins?!??? Unlike your picks EWU and MSU, neither WSU or NAU have played a sub-DI team this season.

The Wildcats are currently second in the Big Sky, and own the head-to head victory on the road over the third place team, Eastern Washington. Moreover, Weber gets to play its last two games versus NAU and Cal Poly at home.

The Lumberjacks are sitting fourth in conference play, own the head-to-head over the fifth place team, Montana State, and get to play EWU at home.

Division I Records of the Big Sky contenders:

Weber State 5-4
Eastern Washington 5-3
Northern Arizona 5-4
Montana State 5-3

Note that the MAXIMUM number of DI victories any of these four contenders can possibly garner in the regular season is SEVEN, so the Big Sky is most likely fighting for that last at-large bid.

The reason I am leaving those two out right now is the fact that they both have 4 losses. Montana is going to win the auto bid for sure if they win this weekend and I believe they will. Just like with someone from the NEC or even a second Patriot League team I am only going to bring them up if it looks like it will or likely could happen. If you notice I left Delaware out of the just missed category but they could vault into the top 10 of the national rankings and probably be the 3rd or 4th at-large team taken if they win their last two, but I don't see it happening. If WSU and NAU both win this weekend then I will add them in but I am trying to only list those that I think are going to get in or have a great shot right now. If Montana wins out then the only other team in the BSC with a shot at getting in is EWU and thus I listed them. MSU will get eliminated if they lose to Montana like I believe they will.

[native]

Small College Fan,

You included Montana State and Eastern Washington, but not Weber State or Northern Arizona as Big Sky at-large candidates.

Why the omission? Are you counting DII wins?!??? Unlike your picks EWU and MSU, neither WSU or NAU have played a sub-DI team this season.

The Wildcats are currently second in the Big Sky, and own the head-to head victory on the road over the third place team, Eastern Washington. Moreover, Weber gets to play its last two games versus NAU and Cal Poly at home.

The Lumberjacks are sitting fourth in conference play, own the head-to-head over the fifth place team, Montana State, and get to play EWU at home.

Division I Records of the Big Sky contenders:

Weber State 5-4
Eastern Washington 5-3
Northern Arizona 5-4
Montana State 5-3

Note that the MAXIMUM number of DI victories any of these four contenders can possibly garner in the regular season is SEVEN, so the Big Sky is most likely fighting for that last at-large bid.

The reason I am leaving those two out right now is the fact that they both have 4 losses. Montana is going to win the auto bid for sure if they win this weekend and I believe they will. Just like with someone from the NEC or even a second Patriot League team I am only going to bring them up if it looks like it will or likely could happen. If you notice I left Delaware out of the just missed category but they could vault into the top 10 of the national rankings and probably be the 3rd or 4th at-large team taken if they win their last two, but I don't see it happening. If WSU and NAU both win this weekend then I will add them in but I am trying to only list those that I think are going to get in or have a great shot right now. If Montana wins out then the only other team in the BSC with a shot at getting in is EWU and thus I listed them. MSU will get eliminated if they lose to Montana like I believe they will.

You think in the minds of the selection committee that a 7-3 (DI) EWU has a better shot than a 7-4 WSU with the head-to-head win on the road against the Eagles? You think that EWU's DII win counts for something in the minds of the selection committee?

[ToTheLeft]

All this talk of 7 DI win teams makes me think LU has a better shot than you all give them credit for. Sure the schedule is weaker, but just like Maine last year, if LU wins out, they'll have 8 DI wins, 1 FCS loss, and be on a win streak of 6 DI games. Maine got in over W and M because of an extra DI win... and LU doesn't have a Presby loss this year (yet).

[native]

All this talk of 7 DI win teams makes me think LU has a better shot than you all give them credit for. Sure the schedule is weaker, but just like Maine last year, if LU wins out, they'll have 8 DI wins, 1 FCS loss, and be on a win streak of 6 DI games. Maine got in over W and M because of an extra DI win... and LU doesn't have a Presby loss this year (yet).

Could be. The Flame are high enough in my poll.

An 8-2 (DI) Liberty would have no wins against a top 30 GPI team. A 7-4 (DI) Weber would have 2-3 wins against teams in the GPI top 30.

[native]

...If WSU and NAU both win this weekend then I will add them in but I am trying to only list those that I think are going to get in or have a great shot right now. If Montana wins out then the only other team in the BSC with a shot at getting in is EWU and thus I listed them.

You are trying to juggle too many tasks and not paying attention to details, SCFF! WSU and NAU cannot both win out this week, because the Lumberjacks are traveling to Ogden to play Weber.

AGAIN, why would EWU with 7 DI wins have a better shot than Weber with 7 DI wins, including the head-to-head victory over the Eagles in Cheney?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

The reason I am leaving those two out right now is the fact that they both have 4 losses. Montana is going to win the auto bid for sure if they win this weekend and I believe they will. Just like with someone from the NEC or even a second Patriot League team I am only going to bring them up if it looks like it will or likely could happen. If you notice I left Delaware out of the just missed category but they could vault into the top 10 of the national rankings and probably be the 3rd or 4th at-large team taken if they win their last two, but I don't see it happening. If WSU and NAU both win this weekend then I will add them in but I am trying to only list those that I think are going to get in or have a great shot right now. If Montana wins out then the only other team in the BSC with a shot at getting in is EWU and thus I listed them. MSU will get eliminated if they lose to Montana like I believe they will.

You think in the minds of the selection committee that a 7-3 (DI) EWU has a better shot than a 7-4 WSU with the head-to-head win on the road against the Eagles? You think that EWU's DII win counts for something in the minds of the selection committee?

Head to head counts in determining the AQ if there's a tie within the conference. The selection committee will select the best available teams from the remaining field. Included in that is record, signature wins, but also performance against other playoff contender teams. WSU got crushed by Montana and beat at home by MSU. EWU got beat at home by WSU, but beat MSU, and played a very close game with Montana. I'm not the committee, but I'd say EWU's performance warrants an at large over Weber.

[Col Hogan]

...If WSU and NAU both win this weekend then I will add them in but I am trying to only list those that I think are going to get in or have a great shot right now. If Montana wins out then the only other team in the BSC with a shot at getting in is EWU and thus I listed them.

You are trying to juggle too many tasks and not paying attention to details, SCFF! WSU and NAU cannot both win out this week, because the Lumberjacks are traveling to Ogden to play Weber.

AGAIN, why would EWU with 7 DI wins have a better shot than Weber with 7 DI wins, including the head-to-head victory over the Eagles in Cheney?

Why would a 7 - 3 EWU or a 7 - 4 Weber have a better shot than a 7 - 4 UMass with a quality win over a current top 10 FCS team???

[ToTheLeft]

All this talk of 7 DI win teams makes me think LU has a better shot than you all give them credit for. Sure the schedule is weaker, but just like Maine last year, if LU wins out, they'll have 8 DI wins, 1 FCS loss, and be on a win streak of 6 DI games. Maine got in over W and M because of an extra DI win... and LU doesn't have a Presby loss this year (yet).

Could be. The Flame are high enough in my poll.

An 8-2 (DI) Liberty would have no wins against a top 30 GPI team. A 7-4 (DI) Weber would have 2-3 wins against teams in the GPI top 30.

Both JMU (only FCS loss) and Lafayette (win) were in last weeks top 30, and will stay there as long as they win. Plus,the win over Lafayette will wind up being a win over a playoff team should they win out.

[93henfan]

You forgot three Big Sky teams that if they win out are more deserving than Delaware, FAmu, patriot league etc.

If Delaware beats Navy and Nova (they won't, but for the sake of argument), there would be no Big Sky team other than Montana with a better resume.

[native]

You are trying to juggle too many tasks and not paying attention to details, SCFF! WSU and NAU cannot both win out this week, because the Lumberjacks are traveling to Ogden to play Weber.

AGAIN, why would EWU with 7 DI wins have a better shot than Weber with 7 DI wins, including the head-to-head victory over the Eagles in Cheney?

Why would a 7 - 3 EWU or a 7 - 4 Weber have a better shot than a 7 - 4 UMass with a quality win over a current top 10 FCS team???

Coin toss.