Projected Playoff Field

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

As of right now, based on tie-breakers, here is a list of the auto-bids as of today. SELU plays SFA and Elon plays App State in games that I firmly believe will replace the auto-bid I have listed when all is said and done. Also, keep in mind that Richmond still has Villanova and W&M to play and SIU plays SDSU. Those games could heavily impact the auto-bids but I don't think they will keep any of the teams mentioned, except for SELU, out of the playoffs as an at-large.

Auto Bids
Big Sky: Montana 8-0
CAA: Richmond 8-0
MEAC: SC State 7-1
MFC: Southern Illinois 7-1
OVC: Eastern Illinois 7-2
Patriot League: Holy Cross 7-1
SoCon: Elon 7-1
SLC: Southeastern Louisiana 5-3

Now, here is a look at who I think will ultimately land the auto-bids.

Auto Bids
Big Sky: Montana 8-0
CAA: Richmond 8-0
MEAC: SC State 7-1
MFC: Southern Illinois 7-1
OVC: Eastern Illinois 7-2
Patriot League: Holy Cross 7-1
SoCon: App State 6-2
SLC: Stephen F. Austin 6-2

At-Large
CAA Villanova 7-1
CAA New Hampshire 7-1
CAA William & Mary 7-1
MVFC South Dakota State 7-1
SoCon Elon 7-1
MVFC Northern Iowa 5-3
SLC McNeese State 6-2
MEAC Florida A&M 6-2

The reason I picked FAMU over Liberty is the fact that I believe their resume is better with losses only to SC State (# in TSN poll, FBS Miami) as opposed to the losses by Liberty (FBS WVU, unranked JMU). I also think they have two quality wins in Morgan State and Tennessee State while Liberty's only quality win at this point is Lafayette. I would say Colgate is the top rated team to not get an auto bid at this point with Liberty being 2nd. I have not listed EWU and some others that should be here now but I don't think will be considered on selection day because they will suffer another loss between now and then and are already on the bubble as it is.

Just Missed
Big South Liberty 6-2
Patriot League Lafayette 7-1
Patriot League Colgate 8-1

Albany, NAU, and a few others that I would have listed here are not listed because I think they will be out of the discussion by the time we get to selection day.
Did I miss anyone?

[mainejeff]

Central Connecticut has a better shot than Albany at this point IMO.

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

Central Connecticut has a better shot than Albany at this point IMO.

They were one of the few others that I was talking about but I felt CCSU really had no shot heading into this past weekend while Albany was a name that could possibly get talked about. I don't really see either of them getting discussed now.

[dgreco]

Central Connecticut has a better shot than Albany at this point IMO.

They were one of the few others that I was talking about but I felt CCSU really had no shot heading into this past weekend while Albany was a name that could possibly get talked about. I don't really see either of them getting discussed now.

CCSU at a chance to be 10-1 with its only loss to W&M and a SOS of of .498% as of current numbers.

Hard to overlook that, a decent SOS, 10 DI wins and a loss to a top 5 team.

[ToTheLeft]

Morgan State and Tenn. St as QUALITY wins?

Are you serious?

TSU is 3-5, with losses to Alabama A and M, Southern, Murray State, and TTU.
Morgan State with a loss to Del. State and way too close wins over Winston Salem, NCAT, and Towson...

Lafayette is clearly better than both of these teams combined, and I would say Chuck South and Coastal are both better than TSU, and probably Morgan State...and GWU and SBU are both better than either of those teams.

Liberty is in ahead of FAMU all day. At least if you compare wins.

And the losses aren't that far off, either. I mean, SCSU is ranked 10th because they haven't lost, but they haven't really beaten anyone... and JMU has beat UD, and was points away from beating UR. A win over WnM for JMU and the JMU loss is easily a "better loss" than SCSU... Also, LU's FBS loss was much, much, MUCH more respectable.

[SpiderFan5]

Nahh

Central Arkansas will get in before FAMU
FAMU will lose again and their conference is not well thought about

[ToTheLeft]

They were one of the few others that I was talking about but I felt CCSU really had no shot heading into this past weekend while Albany was a name that could possibly get talked about. I don't really see either of them getting discussed now.

CCSU at a chance to be 10-1 with its only loss to W&M and a SOS of of .498% as of current numbers.

Hard to overlook that, a decent SOS, 10 DI wins and a loss to a top 5 team.

Liberty would beat that resume all day. The bottom of the NEC is just way, way too bad to merit any of them being counted as meaningful at all. Albany win is nice, but it's only worth a little bit at this point, since CCSU beating them knocked them down the rungs. And a loss to W and M being the MAIN PONT of the resume is a bit weak. Liberty's win over Lafayette is a somewhat weak main point if they don't win out, but a loss to W and M is a very, very weak main point for a resume. As is an Albany win.

[ToTheLeft]

Nahh

Central Arkansas will get in before FAMU
FAMU will lose again and their conference is not well thought about

UCA isn't eligible, and even if they were I doubt they'd make it this year... in theory they would need to get to 8 wins, which is possible, but the SLC is a mess, and it's really tough to tell who can beat who.

But welcome to the board!

[dgreco]

CCSU at a chance to be 10-1 with its only loss to W&M and a SOS of of .498% as of current numbers.

Hard to overlook that, a decent SOS, 10 DI wins and a loss to a top 5 team.

Liberty would beat that resume all day. The bottom of the NEC is just way, way too bad to merit any of them being counted as meaningful at all. Albany win is nice, but it's only worth a little bit at this point, since CCSU beating them knocked them down the rungs. And a loss to W and M being the MAIN PONT of the resume is a bit weak. Liberty's win over Lafayette is a somewhat weak main point if they don't win out, but a loss to W and M is a very, very weak main point for a resume. As is an Albany win.

I think Liberty has a stronger resume, but I was responding to him saying CCSU won't really be looked at.

[ToTheLeft]

Liberty would beat that resume all day. The bottom of the NEC is just way, way too bad to merit any of them being counted as meaningful at all. Albany win is nice, but it's only worth a little bit at this point, since CCSU beating them knocked them down the rungs. And a loss to W and M being the MAIN PONT of the resume is a bit weak. Liberty's win over Lafayette is a somewhat weak main point if they don't win out, but a loss to W and M is a very, very weak main point for a resume. As is an Albany win.

I think Liberty has a stronger resume, but I was responding to him saying CCSU won't really be looked at.

Ah, alright. if LU loses, along with MSU and NAU, I think FAMU and CCSU would be neck and neck... and CCSU might beat out FAMU.

However, apparently eveyone thinks FAMU is clearly better than LU resume wise now, so I dunno...

[danefan]

ToTheLeft
The only difference between Liberty's resume and Central Ct.'s will be a tough loss at West Virginia and a DII win.

A win over Albany is equal to, if not a better win, than Liberty's win over Lafayette.

And while the bottom of the NEC may not be great, its certainly not that much worse than the bottom of the Big South. RMU did only lose ot VMI by 1 point. And St. Francis and Prebsy are both pretty darn bad. At least St. Francis has one win.

Anyway, I'm not sure that will really matter to the Committee.

What will matter is that CCSU will have 2 more Division I wins than Liberty. The Committee places great emphasis on DI wins. CCSU will have 10. Liberty will only have 8. One extra DI win got Maine a bid over W&M last year. 2 wins could be the difference.

But I wouldn't be so quick to separate Liberty too far from CCSU.

[Chizzang]

Morgan State and Tenn. St as QUALITY wins?

Are you serious?

I spit coffee..!!! (You cheer me up)

[danefan]

At this point, just sit back and take a look at the facts and history. It is very very very unlikely that any team from a league other than the "Old Guard" is getting an at-large.

All of these arguments for inclusion are one variation or another of the "San Diego" argument. We just don't have Jim Harbaugh to get on Jim Rome and campaign for a bid.

A lot wins without any really good ones.

A 7-4 "Old Guard" team will make it first.

Which, this year, is probably the appropriate choice.

[dgreco]

At this point, just sit back and take a look at the facts and history. It is very very very unlikely that any team from a league other than the "Old Guard" is getting an at-large.

All of these arguments for inclusion are one variation or another of the "San Diego" argument. We just don't have Jim Harbaugh to get on Jim Rome and campaign for a bid.

A lot wins without any really good ones.

A 7-4 "Old Guard" team will make it first.

Which, this year, is probably the appropriate choice.

unless Liberty or Central Connecticut can bump up in the GPI and polls.

They are both have a little way to go and not a lot of weeks left, but you never know.

[GOKATS]

I'll be real surprised if a team from the Big Sky doesn't get an at large bid, very seldom does only one BSC team make the playoffs.

[JayJ79]

SIU doesn't really hold any tiebreakers (as far as the conference goes) over SDSU (but then, neither does SDSU hold any over SIU). It pretty much comes down to this week's game. Though I'm pretty sure both teams will get in either way (unless something really screwy goes on and they somehow lose all their remaining games)

[guinzone]

SDSU is my favorite to win the national title. Their athletes are nothing special, but their coaching, execution, lack of turnovers, and their heart will make them nearly impossible to beat in Brookings.

SDSU - 2009 FCS Champs

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

Morgan State and Tenn. St as QUALITY wins?

Are you serious?

TSU is 3-5, with losses to Alabama A and M, Southern, Murray State, and TTU.
Morgan State with a loss to Del. State and way too close wins over Winston Salem, NCAT, and Towson...

Lafayette is clearly better than both of these teams combined, and I would say Chuck South and Coastal are both better than TSU, and probably Morgan State...and GWU and SBU are both better than either of those teams.

Liberty is in ahead of FAMU all day. At least if you compare wins.

And the losses aren't that far off, either. I mean, SCSU is ranked 10th because they haven't lost, but they haven't really beaten anyone... and JMU has beat UD, and was points away from beating UR. A win over WnM for JMU and the JMU loss is easily a "better loss" than SCSU... Also, LU's FBS loss was much, much, MUCH more respectable.

I don't think MSU and NCAT are really key wins but they are the closest thing to key wins so that is what I have listed.

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

SDSU is my favorite to win the national title. Their athletes are nothing special, but their coaching, execution, lack of turnovers, and their heart will make them nearly impossible to beat in Brookings.

SDSU - 2009 FCS Champs

From what I have seen the last few weeks I think SDSU is solid but I don't know if they have the speed to beat some of the top teams. The one thing they have is a strong running game behind a big and good OL. They also have very good LBs and a good pair of DEs. I think SDSU is a top 5-8 team and if they beat SIU then I believe they are a definite top 5 team and a national title favorite. My top 3 favorites are going to be Richmond (if they beat Nova and W&M), App State (if they keep it up), and the winner of the SIU vs. SDSU game. SIU RB Deji Karim is the best I have seen in the FCS this year with Paschall, Minett, Ford, Moore, Jones, Smith, Sinisi, and McCarty all right behind him.

App State is looking outstanding and seems to have woken up. Nobody is going to hold them under 40 points the way they are playing offensively. They are still giving up big plays on defense but the defense is dominating for at least 2 quarters in the last couple of games and I think if their defense can shut someone out for a first half the offense is going to put up at least 20-30 and make it very tough to come back on them.

Richmond is looking oustanding up front on the OL and I really think if they can go 11-0 they have to be the favorite. If Nova or W&M beats them then I think it becomes wide open.

We can't forget Montana because they are quietly putting together a very good season and haven't had that much trouble so far. The only thing that makes me worry with picking them is that they have not been truly tested in the FCS ranks yet.

[ToTheLeft]

Morgan State and Tenn. St as QUALITY wins?

Are you serious?

TSU is 3-5, with losses to Alabama A and M, Southern, Murray State, and TTU.
Morgan State with a loss to Del. State and way too close wins over Winston Salem, NCAT, and Towson...

Lafayette is clearly better than both of these teams combined, and I would say Chuck South and Coastal are both better than TSU, and probably Morgan State...and GWU and SBU are both better than either of those teams.

Liberty is in ahead of FAMU all day. At least if you compare wins.

And the losses aren't that far off, either. I mean, SCSU is ranked 10th because they haven't lost, but they haven't really beaten anyone... and JMU has beat UD, and was points away from beating UR. A win over WnM for JMU and the JMU loss is easily a "better loss" than SCSU... Also, LU's FBS loss was much, much, MUCH more respectable.

I don't think MSU and NCAT are really key wins but they are the closest thing to key wins so that is what I have listed.

They're TERRIBLE wins. LU's wins are better. LU belongs in over FAMU all day. Are you admitting that you're wrong? Or are you insisting that a second MEAC team will get in before the first Big South team (Big South is a higher rated conference...)?

[SmallCollegeFBFan]

I'll be real surprised if a team from the Big Sky doesn't get an at large bid, very seldom does only one BSC team make the playoffs.

I would usually say the same thing but looking at the Big Sky teams with a shot at an at-large bid which one do you think gets it?

NAU has to win out now with losses to Arizona, Montana, and Sac State. That Sac State loss hurts big time. With games against EWU, Weber State, and Ole Miss there is no way they are going to win out like they would need to. I think they will lose 2 of their last 3 and that would eliminate them for sure.

Montana State has just three losses but they have to win out to be eligible, including a win over Montana.

Weber State has four losses and they must win out to get the 7 D1 wins but to be honest I would take a 7-4 WSU team with their tough schedule over Liberty, or a 2nd team from the Patriot League this year. That is a tough decision though as I don't think taking a 2nd PL team would be bad but I personally would rather have WSU since 2 of their losses are to FBS teams. That loss to MSU and blowout loss to Montana doesn't look too great though. They really needed to show better against Montana.

The other shot in the Big Sky this year would be Eastern Washington sitting at 6-3 and I do think they could win the last two games but a tough road game to finish the season against NAU will ultimately decide their fate. They are my choice as the at-large, as long as they win out.

[AZGrizFan]

I'll be real surprised if a team from the Big Sky doesn't get an at large bid, very seldom does only one BSC team make the playoffs.

EWU has the best shot, but they must beat NAU in their last game of the year.

Weber scheduled themselves out of the playoffs.

Montana State would get in if they win on 11/21.

If the standings end up:

Montana 10-1, 7-1
EWU 8-3, 6-2
Montana State 8-3, 6-2

I can see 2 at-larges from the BSC. Certainly over a 10-1 Liberty or a 10-1 CCSU.

[JMU DJ]

And the losses aren't that far off, either. I mean, SCSU is ranked 10th because they haven't lost, but they haven't really beaten anyone... and JMU has beat UD, and was points away from beating UR. A win over WnM for JMU and the JMU loss is easily a "better loss" than SCSU... Also, LU's FBS loss was much, much, MUCH more respectable.

Again, this is clearly in the eye of the beholder. JMU lost to... was crushed by W&M so you argument here is futile. JMU also had a "respectable" FBS loss to a terrible UMD if you want to count that in your "almost" book. SCSU also lost to USC, a team that has played much tougher competition than WVU and was also ranked prior to a loss to a hot UT this weekend. WVU hasn't played any tough team this yet besides South Florida, we'll see how good that "respectable" loss looks after the Cinci, Pitt and Rutgers games. If you want to start ranking your loses as an argument for a playoff bid, more power to you.

[AZGrizFan]

a loss is a loss is a loss is a loss is a loss.

No such thing as a "good" loss.

[SpiderFan5]

With UCA not eligible, then i like Liberty as long as they dont lose again
9-2 is pretty strong, and i see FAMU losing again