Playoffs: Where we stand (10/31)

[bench]

The likeliest playoff contenders of the moment and expected number of bids by conference:

Big Sky: One bid — Montana
CAA: Four bids — (North) UNH; (South) UR, 'Nova AND W&M
MEAC: One bid — SC St.
MVC: Three bids — SIU AND SD St.AND UNI
OVC: One bid — EIU
Patriot: One bid — Holy Cross OR Lafayette
SoCon: Two bids — Elon AND ASU
SLC: Two bids — SFA AND McNeese

The all-but-locked-up bids at this moment — this list accounts for still-murky single-bid conference championship races, auto-bid front-runners with decent at-large resumes in case of slight disasters, likely at-large teams with softer remaining schedules, and teams that virtually cannot play themselves out of the postseason:

Montana
UNH
UR
'Nova
W&M
SC St.
SIU
SD St.
EIU
Holy Cross OR Lafayette
Elon
SFA

So after this week's casualties and promotions, there are now three teams with a realistic shot at four available at-large playoff spots: UNI, ASU, and McNeese. That is not a misprint, and I'll explain why momentarily. This week's news and teams of note:

• Ironically, the bubble is softening as more bubble teams keep losing. Teams that looked bound for 8-3 a couple weeks ago are now capable of no better than 7-4, and that brings teams who lost their shot at 8-3 a good while ago back into the mix. We've went from having more reasonable contenders than available slots to having less in just one weekend. It's now just one big hodgepodge of teams who have to win out to stay above water, and teams with few decent wins and a couple of bad losses. At this point, everyone that isn't already mathematically eliminated finds themselves still uncomfortably alive, and with the same shitty odds of making it into the field as everyone else who shares their lot.
• Those who gained ground toward cementing their bid were already presumed to be near-locks to get one anyway (ASU, McNeese), but still have yet to clinch. The last remaining threat to Montana's autobid (Weber) was dealt with summarily, and the front-runner for the league's at-large (NAU) dropped one to a team they should have beaten. Two teams with a defining win under their belts (UMass, Cal Poly) tripped over conference mates already eliminated from consideration. Another team with the toughest-remaining slate (UD) probably got caught looking ahead. UNI is breathing a little easier this week, and ASU and the eventual second-place team in the Southland now have a little more margin for error that they may not even need. All of this to say there is now one bubble spot open for the first taker at 7-4 who can finish strong and present something resembling an actual at-large resume to the selection committee.
• All four Big Sky teams fighting for a potential at-large (EWU, Montana St., NAU, and Weber) have to win out (or in NAU's case, win out against the subdivision) just to become playoff-eligible. The only team that doesn't have to play at least one of the other bubble teams is Montana State, who gets to play Montana instead. Glancing at the resumes for these teams, simply being eligible far from guarantees an invite.
• The three CAA teams vying for a fifth at-large bid are Hofstra, UMass, and Delaware. As with the Big Sky chasers, all three have to win out to have any shot at going dancing. Hofstra and UMass play each other, and UD still has Navy and 'Nova. No guarantees at 7-4 for either of the Northerners, but UD would and should be rewarded for pulling off nothing short of a miracle.
• I don't see the Valley picking up a fourth team. If Youngstown or Illinois State won out and became playoff-eligible, they would have to beat the other team and probably eliminate UNI in the process. Missouri State is still technically alive, but they too have to win out, and their major obstacle remaining is Southern Illinois.
• Furman was virtually done last week. This week they're really done, unless they can somehow beat Auburn on the Plains.
• Texas State ¡SAN MARCOS! stunned Steven F. Austin this week. Great win, and a season-defining victory. They're still alive, but just barely — they have to win out, with games left against UCA and McNeese, to be included in the playoff conversation.
• Though their schedule has been comparatively puny, Liberty does have a nice-looking record, but they have no resume to speak of. There are a metric shitload of legitimate big-name teams that are still in the hunt and don't have much to show for either one. Does the committee like their last team in to be relatively unchallenged, or demonstrably scathed?

Don't like what Magic 8-Ball tells me? As always, just wait until next week — shit will undoubtedly change.

[ToTheLeft]

[*]Though their schedule has been comparatively puny, Liberty does have a nice-looking record, but they have no resume to speak of. There are a metric shitload of legitimate big-name teams that are still in the hunt and don't have much to show for either one. Does the committee like their last team in to be relatively unchallenged, or demonstrably scathed?

This is where we have been for a couple weeks now. We can't win our way in, but other teams can lose our way in, if that makes sense. The fewer good, eligible teams there are, the better LU's chances. This weekend helped out, and if things go at this pace, LU will be right on the bubble.

[Chizzang]

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Out of the 4 Big Sky teams that need to win out (against FCS competition) to be eligible and likely to be selected into the 16, I think EWU has the best odds (@SUU, @NAU), with MSU right behind (@PSU, Sac, #2UM) and Weber in third (NAU, #?Cal Poly).

[∞∞∞]

I'm still a bit high off of today's victory, but I wanna see ODU play Montana in the playoffs THIS YEAR for some reason, even if we got destroyed!!! Wouldn't that be a nice little surprise if we made the field? I hope the committee considers us if we beat NC Central and VMI...even though I know that realistically they won't (as it should be)

[EWURanger]

I generally think the BSC will get more than one bid.....it would be ridiculous if they didn't.

[ToTheLeft]

I generally think the BSC will get more than one bid.....it would be ridiculous if they didn't.

Good thing it's not about what conference you're from, but who you beat and who you lose to.

[slulionsfan]

I guess we're not in the conversation?

[T-Dog]

I guess we're not in the conversation?

SELA has to win out and get some help to get the auto-bid. I don't think your getting an at-large.

[CatMom]

I guess we're not in the conversation?

slulionsfan,
I think this is more about the at-large bids. SELA, even winning out, wouldn't qualify...as you wouldn't have 7 DI wins. SELA would qualify if they win conference, as the conference champion is an auto-bid.

[bench]

I guess we're not in the conversation?

slulionsfan,
I think this is more about the at-large bids. SELA, even winning out, wouldn't qualify...as you wouldn't have 7 DI wins. SELA would qualify if they win conference, as the conference champion is an auto-bid.

And to win the SLC autobid, Southeastern Louisiana would have to beat SFA, finish with an equal or better league record than SFA, and finish a full game ahead of McNeese, since the Cowboys have the head-to-head tiebreaker over SELA.

The D-II games to start the season really hurt the Lions' postseason chances. The Ole Miss game and the loss to South Dakota didn't help matters much. This looks to be a much better team now than they were in week four, but it's going to take a pretty wild confluence of events to get Southeastern into the field.

[slulionsfan]

slulionsfan,
I think this is more about the at-large bids. SELA, even winning out, wouldn't qualify...as you wouldn't have 7 DI wins. SELA would qualify if they win conference, as the conference champion is an auto-bid.

And to win the SLC autobid, Southeastern Louisiana would have to beat SFA, finish with an equal or better league record than SFA, and finish a full game ahead of McNeese, since the Cowboys have the head-to-head tiebreaker over SELA.

The D-II games to start the season really hurt the Lions' postseason chances. The Ole Miss game and the loss to South Dakota didn't help matters much. This looks to be a much better team now than they were in week four, but it's going to take a pretty wild confluence of events to get Southeastern into the field.

Didn't see anywhere in the thread where this is just about "at-large" bids...secondly, I don't see it as a "wild confluence of events" at all...we play two of the last three at home, including SFA and McNeese still has to play Texas State and UCA...they could easily lose one of those...and we match up very well with SFA...not making a prediction one way or the other, we still have to play NW State on the road next week, but we're still very much in the mix.

[houndawg]

Of the stragglers, I think the ones that the rest of the field would least like to see get in would be UD and UNI.

[CatMom]

So after this week's casualties and promotions, there are now three teams with a realistic shot at four available at-large playoff spots: UNI, ASU, and McNeese. That is not a misprint, and I'll explain why momentarily. This week's news and teams of note:

SELA can ONLY get an auot-bid by winning out and the other 3 teams not winning out. 4 teams are 3-1 and have beaten each other in a round robin sort of way. If MSU wins out, SELA is out. If SFA wins out, SELA is out, if TXST wins out they could get either one depending on what the others do.

So, for autobid
if SFA won out and TXST won out TXST gets the auto, by virtue of tie-breaker
SELA wins out, TXST wins out SELA gets the auto , by vitue of tie-breaker
MSU wins out, SELA wins out, MSU gets the auto, by virtue of tie-breaker
SFA wins out, MSU wins out, SFA gets auto, by virtue of tie-breaker

The only way SELA gets in is an auto-bid and that entails for them to win out and one of the others to falter (MSU/TXST), otherwise an at-large is out of reach. It is a confluence of events. It was last year also. Finally having a good team is not always good enough. You have to step back and look at the big picture. TXST has to win out to go anywhere also. If TXST does not, they wouldn't get an at-large because the resume isn't there this year, as opposed to MSU or SFA.

[danefan]

Jesus H Christ Bench.............................spot on.


I know what is for sure - at least one undeserving team is going to get an at-large this year. I hope its a team from a power conference and not a team with a patsy schedule.

[kalm]

I generally think the BSC will get more than one bid.....it would be ridiculous if they didn't.

Good thing it's not about what conference you're from, but who you beat and who you lose to.

75% of who who you beat and who you lose to is dictated by what conference you're.

Look at conference GPI and consider that you'd have a 11-0 or 10-1 Montana sitting at the top. Forget about 2 bids, right now the BSC would deserve a third bid before the MVC, Southern, or Southland.

Either EWU or MSU at 8-3 are locks. If they're both 8-3 I think there's a strong chance for 3 bids. There's less of a chance but still a possibility that NAU or Weber at 7-4 would join an 8-3 team with the third bid.

If the second place team is 7-4 than there's a chance of only the AQ.

[Gil Dobie]

Of the stragglers, I think the ones that the rest of the field would least like to see get in would be UD and UNI.

IMO, the MVFC has 3 teams locked in already, unless a unexpected upset happens. 4 losses for UD and UMass vs at worst a 3 loss MVFC team at the worst.

[houndawg]

Of the stragglers, I think the ones that the rest of the field would least like to see get in would be UD and UNI.

IMO, the MVFC has 3 teams locked in already, unless a unexpected upset happens. 4 losses for UD and UMass vs at worst a 3 loss MVFC team at the worst.

In the MVC's case you're looking at a three-loss team with no good wins. Anybody in the Big Sky have a decent win besides Montana?

[isumatt]

Jesus H Christ Bench.............................spot on.


I know what is for sure - at least one undeserving team is going to get an at-large this year. I hope its a team from a power conference and not a team with a patsy schedule.

Maybe it will be a team like Montana St that bids 200K to host a 1st round game, and they can buy their bid again like they did several years ago!!

[Gil Dobie]

IMO, the MVFC has 3 teams locked in already, unless a unexpected upset happens. 4 losses for UD and UMass vs at worst a 3 loss MVFC team at the worst.

In the MVC's case you're looking at a three-loss team with no good wins. Anybody in the Big Sky have a decent win besides Montana?

Do you take the 3 loss MVFC team or 4 loss Deleware, UMass or Cal Poly?

[kalm]

IMO, the MVFC has 3 teams locked in already, unless a unexpected
upset happens. 4 losses for UD and UMass vs at worst a 3 loss MVFC team at the worst.

In the MVC's case you're looking at a three-loss team with no good wins. Anybody in the Big Sky have a decent win besides Montana?

Ewu beat msu
Weber beat ewu
Msu beat weber
Nau beat suu

And they all have quality opponents remaining

An

[kalm]

In the 's case you're looking at a three-loss team with no good wins. Anybody in the Big Sky have a decent win besides Montana?

Do you take the 3 loss MVFC team or 4 loss Deleware, UMass or Cal Poly?

3 loss mvfc or Bsc

[Gil Dobie]

Do you take the 3 loss MVFC team or 4 loss Deleware, UMass or Cal Poly?

3 loss mvfc or Bsc

Are you talking 2 or 3 BSC teams? Should be 2 for sure

[slulionsfan]

So after this week's casualties and promotions, there are now three teams with a realistic shot at four available at-large playoff spots: UNI, ASU, and McNeese. That is not a misprint, and I'll explain why momentarily. This week's news and teams of note:

SELA can ONLY get an auot-bid by winning out and the other 3 teams not winning out. 4 teams are 3-1 and have beaten each other in a round robin sort of way. If MSU wins out, SELA is out. If SFA wins out, SELA is out, if TXST wins out they could get either one depending on what the others do.

So, for autobid
if SFA won out and TXST won out TXST gets the auto, by virtue of tie-breaker
SELA wins out, TXST wins out SELA gets the auto , by vitue of tie-breaker
MSU wins out, SELA wins out, MSU gets the auto, by virtue of tie-breaker
SFA wins out, MSU wins out, SFA gets auto, by virtue of tie-breaker

The only way SELA gets in is an auto-bid and that entails for them to win out and one of the others to falter (MSU/TXST), otherwise an at-large is out of reach. It is a confluence of events. It was last year also. Finally having a good team is not always good enough. You have to step back and look at the big picture. TXST has to win out to go anywhere also. If TXST does not, they wouldn't get an at-large because the resume isn't there this year, as opposed to MSU or SFA.

If we win out and McNeese loses to either Texas State or UCA, we get the auto-bid - simple as that...while it may not happen, it's certainly not a "wild confluence of events" considering we have SFA at home and McNeese has to play in San Marcos, plus UCA matches up well with McNeese...We also have to play at NW State which is never an easy place for us to play. No question we don't control our own destiny, but we're in better position than Texas State is right now, and the Bobcats were mentioned in the original post on this subject and we were not...which the only reason I brought it up.

[Col Hogan]

Didn't see anywhere in the thread where this is just about "at-large" bids...secondly, I don't see it as a "wild confluence of events" at all...we play two of the last three at home, including SFA and McNeese still has to play Texas State and UCA...they could easily lose one of those...and we match up very well with SFA...not making a prediction one way or the other, we still have to play NW State on the road next week, but we're still very much in the mix.

I think you have come up with the perfect definition of "wild confluence of events" here when you start describing what you MUST do to gain the autobid...

Odds are against your team...