Latest Playoff Predictions 10/28

[FCS Update]

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... 4-weekend/

[89Hen]

Pretty good and good job with the placement of the teams that you predicted.

It will be very interesting to see the BigSky play out. I'm sure there's another thread on it, but it could be very tough for them to get a second team to 8-3 this year.

Weber, EWU, MSU and for all intents and purposes, NAU already have three losses. Remaining games of significance...

Weber at Montana
NAU at Weber
EWU at NAU
Montana at Montana State

Montana can basically eliminate Weber and MSU. If NAU splits with home team winning, that leaves nobody at 8-3. This is a fairly likely scenario, no?

[Grizalltheway]

Pretty good and good job with the placement of the teams that you predicted.

It will be very interesting to see the BigSky play out. I'm sure there's another thread on it, but it could be very tough for them to get a second team to 8-3 this year.

Weber, EWU, MSU and for all intents and purposes, NAU already have three losses. Remaining games of significance...

Weber at Montana
NAU at Weber
EWU at NAU
Montana at Montana State

Montana can basically eliminate Weber and MSU. If NAU splits with home team winning, that leaves nobody at 8-3. This is a fairly likely scenario, no?

MSU got in at 7-4 a few years back.

[native]

Pretty good and good job with the placement of the teams that you predicted.

It will be very interesting to see the BigSky play out. I'm sure there's another thread on it, but it could be very tough for them to get a second team to 8-3 this year.

Weber, EWU, MSU and for all intents and purposes, NAU already have three losses. Remaining games of significance...

Weber at Montana
NAU at Weber
EWU at NAU
Montana at Montana State

Montana can basically eliminate Weber and MSU. If NAU splits with home team winning, that leaves nobody at 8-3. This is a fairly likely scenario, no?

Your scenario is not unlikely, but NAU at 7-4 would still have a pretty good resume and a chance for an at-large bid, depending on what other teams and resumes are on the bubble with them.

[danefan]

Looking good. I could see UMass getting in if Delaware loses to both Navy and Nova.

[weberwildcat]

I'm hoping Weber and Cal Poly make it in.

[89Hen]

MSU got in at 7-4 a few years back.

depending on what other teams and resumes are on the bubble with them.

I think that's the key native. I remember MSU getting in after beating Colorado (and losing to Chadron). Just like Maine getting in last year at 7-4... it all depends on who is available. I certainly wouldn't want to hang my hopes on 7-4.

[danefan]

One thing that a clear prediction like this solidifies is that there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that any non-AQ is making the playoffs from any of the mid-level conferences.

FAMU - nope
Colgate/Lafayette - nope
Liberty - nope
Albany/Central Ct. - nope
EKU - nope

I think it will come down to Delaware, UMass and Cal Poly for the last spot. If Delaware wins either of Navy or Nova and beats Towson and JMU, then they are in. If Delaware loses and UMass and Cal Poly win out, I'm not sure who would get it. Based on last year, I would give it to UMass. They'll have 8 DI wins. Cal Poly will only have 7.

[UNHWildCats]

Bracket:

South Carolina State @ (1)Richmond
William and Mary @ Appalachian State

Holy Cross @ Delaware
Northern Arizona @ (4)South Dakota State

New Hampshire @ McNeese State
Stephen F austin @ (2)Montana

Eastern Illinois @ Southern Illinois
Elon @ (3)Villanova

Wouldnt it make more sense to matchup Holy cross and New Hampshire?

[danefan]

Bracket:

South Carolina State @ (1)Richmond
William and Mary @ Appalachian State

Holy Cross @ Delaware
Northern Arizona @ (4)South Dakota State

New Hampshire @ McNeese State
Stephen F austin @ (2)Montana

Eastern Illinois @ Southern Illinois
Elon @ (3)Villanova

Wouldnt it make more sense to matchup Holy cross and New Hampshire?

Only if UNH gets a seed. Neither Holy Cross nor UNH would outbid anyone. HC is still a bus trip to Delaware (300 miles) so they could get away with it under "regionalization".

The only teams hosting in the above bracket that don't have large bids Nova and Richmond, and they're a seed.

[native]

This is a pretty good prognostication, maybe the best to date. I think the final playoff bracket will look a lot like this one, with key bubble teams interchangeable with key at-large predictions, depending on who wins and loses the last few regular season matchups.

[DukeJack]

I asked this last week, but why is SCSU matched up with Richmond? Isn't Elon a lot closer?

[89Hen]

If Delaware wins either of Navy or Nova and beats Towson and JMU, then they are in.

I sure hope so. (It's Hofstra, not Towson).

[UNHWildCats]

Bracket:

South Carolina State @ (1)Richmond
William and Mary @ Appalachian State

Holy Cross @ Delaware
Northern Arizona @ (4)South Dakota State

New Hampshire @ McNeese State
Stephen F austin @ (2)Montana

Eastern Illinois @ Southern Illinois
Elon @ (3)Villanova

Wouldnt it make more sense to matchup Holy cross and New Hampshire?

Only if UNH gets a seed. Neither Holy Cross nor UNH would outbid anyone. HC is still a bus trip to Delaware (300 miles) so they could get away with it under "regionalization".

The only teams hosting in the above bracket that don't have large bids Nova and Richmond, and they're a seed.

I have been under the impression they dont choose the 4 highest bids after the seeds as host teams. they matchup teams then determine who has the highest bid between those two teams.

[danefan]

Only if UNH gets a seed. Neither Holy Cross nor UNH would outbid anyone. HC is still a bus trip to Delaware (300 miles) so they could get away with it under "regionalization".

The only teams hosting in the above bracket that don't have large bids Nova and Richmond, and they're a seed.

I have been under the impression they dont choose the 4 highest bids after the seeds as host teams. they matchup teams then determine who has the highest bid between those two teams.

I don't know if that's true or not, but I'd be willing to bet that if Delaware gets in they'll get a home game in the first round. If that means matching up after they are given their home game, then that's what they'll do. Whether they do it officially or not is another story.

[UNHWildCats]

1. The teams awarded the top four seeds are placed in the appropriate positions in the
bracket (Nos. 1 and 4 in the upper half, and Nos. 2 and 3 in the lower half), and will
be paired with teams that are in closest geographic proximity;

2. The remaining teams will be paired according to geographic proximity and placed in
the bracket according to geographic proximity of the four pairings previously placed
in the bracket.

3. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games;

4. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments to
the bracket.

bidding has nothing to do with pairings.

[UNHWildCats]

I have been under the impression they dont choose the 4 highest bids after the seeds as host teams. they matchup teams then determine who has the highest bid between those two teams.

I don't know if that's true or not, but I'd be willing to bet that if Delaware gets in they'll get a home game in the first round. If that means matching up after they are given their home game, then that's what they'll do. Whether they do it officially or not is another story.

I agree Delaware will get a home game, but I think its more likely McNeese would travel there and Holy Cross and UNH would be matched up

[mcveyrl]

1. The teams awarded the top four seeds are placed in the appropriate positions in the
bracket (Nos. 1 and 4 in the upper half, and Nos. 2 and 3 in the lower half), and will
be paired with teams that are in closest geographic proximity;

2. The remaining teams will be paired according to geographic proximity and placed in
the bracket according to geographic proximity of the four pairings previously placed
in the bracket.

3. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games;

4. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments to
the bracket.

bidding has nothing to do with pairings.

So they would seed 1 thru 4, then pair them up and THEN do the other matchups. Assuming that's the case, you would think they would start with 1, so that the team closest to 1 goes there (i.e. the team closest to Richmond in this case), then go down the line. After that, they match-up the closest teams to each other.

So....it would seem to me that ASU is the closest team to UR, but my georgraphy sucks. Is that the case?

And I think Holy Cross would go to Villanova in that case.

[danefan]

I asked this last week, but why is SCSU matched up with Richmond? Isn't Elon a lot closer?

That's a good point. SCSU to Richmond isn't a bus trip (400 miles).

That will actually change the whole thing around. If SCSU and Elon are matched up though, SCSU would be the home team. They'll outbid Elon for sure.

[mcveyrl]

I asked this last week, but why is SCSU matched up with Richmond? Isn't Elon a lot closer?

That's a good point. SCSU to Richmond isn't a bus trip (400 miles).

That will actually change the whole thing around. If SCSU and Elon are matched up though, SCSU would be the home team. They'll outbid Elon for sure.

Using my (probably flawed) reasoning above, wouldn't ASU be closest to UR? Are we not sending them there because we know about the NCAA's hard-on for money?

[danefan]

That's a good point. SCSU to Richmond isn't a bus trip (400 miles).

That will actually change the whole thing around. If SCSU and Elon are matched up though, SCSU would be the home team. They'll outbid Elon for sure.

Using my (probably flawed) reasoning above, wouldn't ASU be closest to UR? Are we not sending them there because we know about the NCAA's hard-on for money?

Yeah, not sure how that effects it. I posted before I read UNH's post. I'm trying to figure this out now using the FCS Map.

[mcveyrl]

Using my (probably flawed) reasoning above, wouldn't ASU be closest to UR? Are we not sending them there because we know about the NCAA's hard-on for money?

Yeah, not sure how that effects it. I posted before I read UNH's post. I'm trying to figure this out now using the FCS Map.

Good. Let me know how that turns out, because it gives me too much of a headache. With 5 CAA teams in, it makes it tough.

[danefan]

Yeah, not sure how that effects it. I posted before I read UNH's post. I'm trying to figure this out now using the FCS Map.

Good. Let me know how that turns out, because it gives me too much of a headache. With 5 CAA teams in, it makes it tough.

Yup...I gave up.

The 5 CAA teams mess it up. The criteria cannot be followed with 5 teams from the same conference something has to give and its likely that Montana and SDSU get teams that aren't the "closest to them" as the rule says.

Then you could get something like this:

App State @ (1) Richmond
Elon @ SCSU

W&M @ McNeese
NAU @ (4) SDSU

UNH @ (2) Montana
EIU @ SIU

SFA @ Delaware
Holy Cross @ (3) Villanova

[skinny_uncle]

Someone else predicting SDSU over SIU? Sorry, but I think our second string QB may be stronger than theirs. That is what the Valley race has come down to. Homefield advantage is being overrated by a lot of people (mostly the same people who picked UNI over SIU a couple of Saturdays ago).

[Thumper 76]

Someone else predicting SDSU over SIU? Sorry, but I think our second string QB may be stronger than theirs. That is what the Valley race has come down to. Homefield advantage is being overrated by a lot of people (mostly the same people who picked UNI over SIU a couple of Saturdays ago).

Im mildly curious as to why SDSU should be the predicted losers in every game with a good to decent team in every prognostication? Do you really think that they aren't that good because of what everyone who played us has said?