Top Rankings for Computer and Human Poll Biases - 10/24

[eastbayaggie]

Hi guys!

I'm new here, and this is my first post here. Someone private messaged me at the Any Given Saturday board that I should post my rankings over here.

Top Rankings for Computer and Human Poll Biases - Week after 10/24 Games*

Top 10 Teams Where the Rankings are Biased Towards the Computer's Favor

1 Northern Arizona 0.387
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #9, #10, #11, #12, #13
Human Rankings: #18, #21, #22

2 Delaware 0.375
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #5, #8, #8, #9, #9
Human Rankings: #14, #16, #18

3 Massachusetts 0.366
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #10, #11, #11, #12, #13
Human Rankings: #19, #19, #23

4 UC Davis 0.246
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #18, #19, #19, #21, #21
Human Rankings: #30, #31, Unranked

5 Eastern Washington 0.207
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #16, #16, #17, #18, #20
Human Rankings: #21, #24, #26

6 Jacksonville State 0.204
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #13, #14, #16, #18, #19
Human Rankings: #20, #22, #22

7 Northern Iowa 0.183
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #7, #7, #7, #11, #11
Human Rankings: #12, #12, #14

8 Southern Utah 0.142
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #20, #21, #22, #23, #30
Human Rankings: #34-38(Tied), #44, Unranked

9 South Dakota State 0.118
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #6, #6, #6, #7, #7
Human Rankings: #9, #9, #9

10 Montana State 0.107
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #21, #23, #23, #24, #25
Human Rankings: #32, #34, #39-40(Tied)


Top 10 Teams Where the Rankings Are Biased Towards the Human Poll's Favor

1 McNeese State -0.528
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #24, #27, #28, #28, #30
Human Rankings: #11, #13, #13

2 Appalachian State -0.519
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #17, #18, #22, #23, #25
Human Rankings: #7, #8, #8

3 Central Arkansas -0.425
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #23, #25, #26, #26, #34
Human Rankings: #12, #15, #15

4 Holy Cross -0.255
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #27, #27, #32, #32, #33
Human Rankings: #17, #17, #20

5 South Carolina State -0.216
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #15, #15, #16, #17, #18
Human Rankings: #10, #10, #10

6 Elon -0.187
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #10, #11, #11, #12, #13
Human Rankings: #6, #6, #6

7 Liberty -0.139
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #23, #26, #26, #26, #29
Human Rankings: #21, #23, #24

8 Colgate -0.103
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #36, #38, #38, #40, #46
Human Rankings: #24, #25, #25

9 Southern Illinois -0.096
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #5, #5, #5, #5, #7
Human Rankings: #3, #3, #3

10 Weber State -0.083
Middle 5 Computer Rankings: #15, #16, #17, #17, #17
Human Rankings: #13, #14, #16



*Computer Poll: Using BCS formula, % of points of the 7 computer rankings used in the GPI(-high and low rankings)
Human Poll: Using BCS formula, (% of points AGS + % of points SN + % of points coaches poll)/3
Bias = computer poll - human poll

Personal Terse Disclosure: Both computer and human polls have their own unique biases and misgivings.


Bonus Ranking

Top 3 Teams Where the Rankings are Biased Between Human Polls

1 Delaware 0.195** AGS poll - FCS poll (BCS formula)
2 Eastern Washington 0.131*** FCS poll - TSN poll (BCS formula)
3 Liberty 0.104**** AGS poll - FCS poll (BCS formula)

** Delaware received 992 points out of 88 voters in the Any Given Saturday poll and only 179 points out of 28 voters in the FCS Coaches poll.
*** Eastern Washington received 141 points out of 28 voters in the FCS Coaches poll and only 240 points out of 138 voters in The Sports Network poll.
**** Liberty received 440 points out of 88 voters in the Any Given Saturday poll and only 67 votes out of 28 voters in the FCS Coaches poll.

Link to the Gridiron Power Index (GPI)
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/stat ... 26gpi.html

[93henfan]

Good data. Thanks for posting. Welcome to the site!

[dbackjon]

Welcome! And thanks for posting

Computers like NAU and Delaware a lot more than humans do...

6 of the teams the computers like more than the humans are Big Sky or Great West - kinda proves human polls have East Coast Bias.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Welcome! And thanks for posting

Computers like NAU and Delaware a lot more than humans do...

6 of the teams the computers like more than the humans are Big Sky or Great West - kinda proves human polls have East Coast Bias.

seriously Jon??


and welcome dude - post often!

[dbackjon]

Serious

[dgreco]

Welcome aboard, Glad to see you made your way over. I enjoy your Bias polls each week.

[PhoenixSupreme]

Welcome aboard, Glad to see you made your way over. I enjoy your Bias polls each week.

Agree...they definitely present the teams in a unique view....

[93henfan]

Welcome! And thanks for posting

Computers like NAU and Delaware a lot more than humans do...

6 of the teams the computers like more than the humans are Big Sky or Great West - kinda proves human polls have East Coast Bias.

Jon, the numbers don't support such a blanket statement. Two of the top three teams the computers like best (Delaware & UMass) are in the CAA. Does that prove that human polls have West Coast Bias?

If anything, I think the greatest human error evidenced in the data presented by the OP is that humans skew the teams with inflated records against subpar competition (Holy Cross, Colgate, SCSt, Liberty) and teams with a few losses that were really good last year (UNI, Appy). Hell, look how long JMU hung around in the polls. That had more to do with their recent history than them being an east coast team.

[GOKATS]

Welcome! And thanks for posting

Computers like NAU and Delaware a lot more than humans do...

6 of the teams the computers like more than the humans are Big Sky or Great West - kinda proves human polls have East Coast Bias.

Jon, the numbers don't support such a blanket statement. Two of the top three teams the computers like best (Delaware & UMass) are in the CAA. Does that prove that human polls have West Coast Bias?

If anything, I think the greatest human error evidenced in the data presented by the OP is that humans skew the teams with inflated records against subpar competition (Holy Cross, Colgate, SCSt, Liberty) and teams with a few losses that were really good last year (UNI, Appy). Hell, look how long JMU hung around in the polls. That had more to do with their recent history than them being an east coast team.

I think there's a helluva lot of truth in your second paragraph.

[dbackjon]

Jon, the numbers don't support such a blanket statement. Two of the top three teams the computers like best (Delaware & UMass) are in the CAA. Does that prove that human polls have West Coast Bias?

If anything, I think the greatest human error evidenced in the data presented by the OP is that humans skew the teams with inflated records against subpar competition (Holy Cross, Colgate, SCSt, Liberty) and teams with a few losses that were really good last year (UNI, Appy). Hell, look how long JMU hung around in the polls. That had more to do with their recent history than them being an east coast team.

Agreed - humans see 7-0 and say "oooh pretty" and not see that the competition was poor.

As noted, 6 of 10 are Great West/Big Sky teams - two conferences with 14 members combined.

I think there's a helluva lot of truth in your second paragraph.

[AZGrizFan]

Welcome! And thanks for posting

Computers like NAU and Delaware a lot more than humans do...

6 of the teams the computers like more than the humans are Big Sky or Great West - kinda proves human polls have East Coast Bias.

seriously Jon??


and welcome dude - post often!

Given that less than 30% of the teams are IN the West, how could you NOT come to that conclusion?

[AZGrizFan]

Hell, look how long JMU hung around in the polls. That had more to do with their recent history than them being an east coast team.

COMPLETELY disagree. ANY West Coast team that was ranked in the top 10 would have been out of the top 25 and not receiving votes @ 2-3.

[ChetSteadman]

6 of the teams the computers like more than the humans are Big Sky or Great West - kinda proves human polls have East Coast Bias.

Wait, so you are arguing that the computer polls are better in these instances? That has to be a first.

[native]

...If anything, I think the greatest human error evidenced in the data presented by the OP is that humans skew the teams with inflated records against subpar competition (Holy Cross, Colgate, SCSt, Liberty) and teams with a few losses that were really good last year (UNI, Appy). Hell, look how long JMU hung around in the polls. That had more to do with their recent history than them being an east coast team.

Ditto!