Big Sky Power Rankings 10-26

[JALMOND]

As we approach the end of October, the season is approaching the end. After this week, we will only have November to sort this whole thing out. Montana could go a long way towards clearing up the top side, but a win over Weber State would put a serious dent in the Wildcats chances. Don't overlook Northern Arizona either. The Jacks are still there, waiting to pounce on the loser from this weekend. Here are this week's power rankings. This week (last week). All are my opinion and all are open for discussion.

1. Montana (1)---Playing a trap game last week before the big game, the Grizzlies had to make the trip to Sacramento State to reenact the "Crisco Bowl". They were able to outlast the Hornets and now turn their attention to Weber State. The Grizzlies have pretty much owned the Wildcats at Missoula, including getting the important game last year in the playoffs. Can they get this one?

2. Weber State (2)---So the Wildcats jumped on Northern Colorado early and started making plans for Montana this week. Maybe a little too early as the Bears made it very interesting, climbing back to within one point in the fourth quarter before the Wildcats were able to put some distance between them. So this week is the big game at Montana and visions of last year's playoff experience still fresh in the minds of the Wildcats. Will this year be different?

3. Northern Arizona (3)---While the two heavies were dealing with their respective trap games before their big game, the Jacks were acting typical of a Big Sky team, disposing Idaho State. Not much resistance given up by the Bengals. This week the Jacks head to Sacramento State to face the upstart Hornet team. Will this be a little closer or will the Jacks put away this game with little effort?

4. Eastern Washington (4)---The Eagles greeted an injury riddled Montana State team last week and got the win without their big receiver. By far, the Eagles were far more healthy than the Bobcat team that came to Cheney and in the long run, they outclassed the Bobcats. Can they continue this run they are on? This week they get to play a "home" game in Seattle against Portland State, a team that the Eagles have never beaten in the Glanville era. Can they change their fortune this time around?

5. Montana State (5)---For all the injuries and sickness going around the Bobcats, its a wonder how they've kept it all together. Last week, though, the injury bug caught up to them as they fell in a heartbreaker at Eastern Washington. Will they ever get healthy? Will they be able to stay healthy? This week, a chance to recover both their health and their winning ways as they welcome lowly Idaho State. Should be rather easy, shouldn't it?

6. Sacramento State (6)---The Hornets have shown an ability to put points on the board against the heavies in the conference, yet the defense cannot stop those teams. This was evident last week as they were able to get 30 on Montana yet still lost the game. The Hornets believe they are so close, yet can't seem to turn the corner. This week, they get another chance as they welcome Northern Arizona to their cozy confines. Can they get this statement win?

7. Portland State (7)---After setting a new record low for yards in the Glanville era two weeks ago, the Vikings beat that mark last week, going lower against UC-Davis. Clearly this offense is not the same without Hubel and last week hurt as any offense in the second half would have been enough to get the win. This week they go on the road up north to Seattle to face Eastern Washington. Encouraging as, for all the animosity the Vikings have gone through under Glanville, one this has remained constant, that they can beat the Eagles. Will this fact continue?

8. Northern Colorado (8)---Maybe if the Bears could play Weber State all the time. After spotting the Wildcats a big lead, the Bears got them thinking about Montana, and before the Wildcats knew what hit them, the Bears were poised to steal the win. Unfortunately, that did not happen and the Bears had to be happy with the almost win. This week, good feelings of their dominance in DII as they welcome former DII team South Dakota. Can they see themselves getting the win this time?

9. Idaho State (9)---So much for the Bengals. Last week, they went to Northern Arizona and, just like the rest of the season, came home with the loss. This week, they go on the road to play an injury depleted Montana State team. Are the Bobcats so decimated by injury that the Bengals have a chance. Or just a chance to keep it somewhat close. In the first quarter.

Well, they all stayed the same from last week, but this is where I think they are. UM is on top, but both WSU and NAU are just a half step behind. EWU is by themselves. MSU is getting pushed by Sac State. PSU and UNC are basically even, with PSU ahead due to their win head to head. ISU is far behind, so far that a win may only be considered a fluke and only bring them close.

[native]

... they all stayed the same from last year ...

Montana is the only Big Sky team with a clear path to the playoffs. With SIX DI victories (and no losses) already in the bag, including THREE top 25 wins over NAU, Cal Poly and EWU, and cellar-dwellers ISU and UNC still on the menu, the Griz are odds on favorites to win the Big Sky conference title and the autobid. In fact, UM could afford to lose to Weber and Montana State, finish 8-2 DI, and still get an at-large invitation to the post-season, probably even a seed.

Weber State is the only other Big Sky team in control of their own destiny. The Wildcats' path to the BSC championship and autobid does not require any other team to lose. It "merely" requires WSU to beat Montana and Northern Arizona. WSU could even lose to Cal Poly, finish with only 7 DI wins, but still win the conference outright, along with the autobid.

Northern Arizona's path to the postseason is a bit more difficult. With only five DI victories and a loss to Montana, the Lumberjacks must win all of their remaining three FCS matchups, including both Weber and Eastern Washington. They travel to Ogden to play WSU the week after returning from their trip to Oxford to face the University of Mississippi. In order for NAU to win the Big Sky conference title outright, the 'jacks must also hope for Weber and Montana State to prevail over Montana.

Incredibly, it is still possible for five Big Sky teams (UM, WSU, NAU, EWU and MSU) to finish 6-2 in BSC conference play, if Montana falls to both Weber and Montana State, Weber beats UM and falls to NAU, NAU falls to EWU, and MSU wins out. In that case my head would hurt...

...maybe you meant "...they all stayed the same from last week?"

Well, they won't stay that way much longer!

[JALMOND]

... they all stayed the same from last year ...

Montana is the only Big Sky team with a clear path to the playoffs. With SIX DI victories (and no losses) already in the bag, including THREE top 25 wins over NAU, Cal Poly and EWU, and cellar-dwellers ISU and UNC still on the menu, the Griz are odds on favorites to win the Big Sky conference title and the autobid. In fact, UM could afford to lose to Weber and Montana State, finish 8-2 DI, and still get an at-large invitation to the post-season, probably even a seed.

Weber State is the only other Big Sky team in control of their own destiny. The Wildcats' path to the BSC championship and autobid does not require any other team to lose. It "merely" requires WSU to beat Montana and Northern Arizona. WSU could even lose to Cal Poly, finish with only 7 DI wins, but still win the conference outright, along with the autobid.

Northern Arizona's path to the postseason is a bit more difficult. With only five DI victories and a loss to Montana, the Lumberjacks must win all of their remaining three FCS matchups, including both Weber and Eastern Washington. They travel to Ogden to play WSU the week after returning from their trip to Oxford to face the University of Mississippi. In order for NAU to win the Big Sky conference title outright, the 'jacks must also hope for Weber and Montana State to prevail over Montana.

Incredibly, it is still possible for five Big Sky teams (UM, WSU, NAU, EWU and MSU) to finish 6-2 in BSC conference play, if Montana falls to both Weber and Montana State, Weber beats UM and falls to NAU, NAU falls to EWU, and MSU wins out. In that case my head would hurt...

...maybe you meant "...they all stayed the same from last week?"

Well, they won't stay that way much longer!

Oops. Yes. The same from last WEEK!!! Doh!!!

I do try to preview these before I post.

[native]

....
Oops. Yes. The same from last WEEK!!! Doh!!!

I do try to preview these before I post.

You did well once again, JALMOND!

[Mvemjsunpx]

Montana is the only Big Sky team with a clear path to the playoffs. With SIX DI victories (and no losses) already in the bag, including THREE top 25 wins over NAU, Cal Poly and EWU, and cellar-dwellers ISU and UNC still on the menu, the Griz are odds on favorites to win the Big Sky conference title and the autobid. In fact, UM could afford to lose to Weber and Montana State, finish 8-2 DI, and still get an at-large invitation to the post-season, probably even a seed.

The Griz won't get a seed if they go 9-2. It would even be iffy at 10-1.

Incredibly, it is still possible for five Big Sky teams (UM, WSU, NAU, EWU and MSU) to finish 6-2 in BSC conference play, if Montana falls to both Weber and Montana State, Weber beats UM and falls to NAU, NAU falls to EWU, and MSU wins out. In that case my head would hurt...

That scenario would come down to Sagarin ranking (the 5 teams would all be 2-2 against the others and common games couldn't be used because they'd all be 4-0 against the bottom half).

[weberwildcat]

Go Weber!

It's do or die time!

(Is MSU gonna buy heaters for the WSU bench?)

[cats2506]

Go Weber!

It's do or die time!

(Is MSU gonna buy heaters for the WSU bench?)

Weber plays better in the cold!

[native]

Montana is the only Big Sky team with a clear path to the playoffs. With SIX DI victories (and no losses) already in the bag, including THREE top 25 wins over NAU, Cal Poly and EWU, and cellar-dwellers ISU and UNC still on the menu, the Griz are odds on favorites to win the Big Sky conference title and the autobid. In fact, UM could afford to lose to Weber and Montana State, finish 8-2 DI, and still get an at-large invitation to the post-season, probably even a seed.

The Griz won't get a seed if they go 9-2. It would even be iffy at 10-1.

Incredibly, it is still possible for five Big Sky teams (UM, WSU, NAU, EWU and MSU) to finish 6-2 in BSC conference play, if Montana falls to both Weber and Montana State, Weber beats UM and falls to NAU, NAU falls to EWU, and MSU wins out. In that case my head would hurt...

That scenario would come down to Sagarin ranking (the 5 teams would all be 2-2 against the others and common games couldn't be used because they'd all be 4-0 against the bottom half).

You could be right that Montana would not get a seed at 9-2 or even 10-1, but I think the Griz would at least get a home game for the first round.

Five 6-2 BSC teams is a mind-boggling concept!

[Screamin_Eagle174]

WSU could even lose to Cal Poly, finish with only 7 DI wins, but still win the conference outright, along with the autobid.

If Weber lost to CP,they would only have 6 D1 wins. (After they lose to UM)

[CrunchGriz]

Deleted because I can't read, apparently....

[native]

WSU could even lose to Cal Poly, finish with only 7 DI wins, but still win the conference outright, along with the autobid.

If Weber lost to CP,they would only have 6 D1 wins. (After they lose to UM)

If Weber wins in Missoula, the Cal Poly game does not matter.

If Weber loses in Missoula, the Cal Poly game matters only because it will give WSU a very slim chance at an at-large bid with 7 DI wins.

Chances are pretty slim for any Big Sky team with only 7 wins to get an at-large bid. NAU might pull it off with wins over Weber and Eastern Washington, or Weber might do it with wins over NAU and Cal Poly. Both scenarios require other teams around the country to lose.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Chances are pretty slim for any Big Sky team with only 7 wins to get an at-large bid. NAU might pull it off with wins over Weber and Eastern Washington, or Weber might do it with wins over NAU and Cal Poly. Both scenarios require other teams around the country to lose.

In 2004 and 2007 EWU finished 8-3 with only 7 D-I wins, both years making the playoffs as an at large pick. We finished 7-4 in 2005, but we got the autobid from beating UM head to head. It's not that uncommon.

In my opinion, EWU will make the playoffs if Montana beats Weber this weekend and we win out.

[native]

Chances are pretty slim for any Big Sky team with only 7 wins to get an at-large bid. NAU might pull it off with wins over Weber and Eastern Washington, or Weber might do it with wins over NAU and Cal Poly. Both scenarios require other teams around the country to lose.

In 2004 and 2007 EWU finished 8-3 with only 7 D-I wins, both years making the playoffs as an at large pick. We finished 7-4 in 2005, but we got the autobid from beating UM head to head. It's not that uncommon.

In my opinion, EWU will make the playoffs if Montana beats Weber this weekend and we win out.

Why would EWU with 7 DI wins be picked for an at-large over a 7-win Weber when WSU won te head-to-head matchup 31-13?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

In 2004 and 2007 EWU finished 8-3 with only 7 D-I wins, both years making the playoffs as an at large pick. We finished 7-4 in 2005, but we got the autobid from beating UM head to head. It's not that uncommon.

In my opinion, EWU will make the playoffs if Montana beats Weber this weekend and we win out.

Why would EWU with 7 DI wins be picked for an at-large over a 7-win Weber when WSU won te head-to-head matchup 31-13?

Why would a 7-win Weber team with 4 losses be picked for an at large over an 8-win EWU team with only 3 losses, and a win over MSU, a team that Weber lost to?

[cats2506]

Why would EWU with 7 DI wins be picked for an at-large over a 7-win Weber when WSU won te head-to-head matchup 31-13?

Why would a 7-win Weber team with 4 losses be picked for an at large over an 8-win EWU team with only 3 losses, and a win over MSU, a team that Weber lost to?

Because the DII doesnt count and WSU owns the head to head.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Why would a 7-win Weber team with 4 losses be picked for an at large over an 8-win EWU team with only 3 losses, and a win over MSU, a team that Weber lost to?

Because the DII doesnt count and WSU owns the head to head.

Too bad MSU owns neither. Is that hot sour milk in your mug?

[native]

Why would EWU with 7 DI wins be picked for an at-large over a 7-win Weber when WSU won te head-to-head matchup 31-13?

Why would a 7-win Weber team with 4 losses be picked for an at large over an 8-win EWU team with only 3 losses, and a win over MSU, a team that Weber lost to?

As your feline antagonists have already noted, EWU cannot get to 8 DI wins this season. I wasn't even setting a trap for you, but you seem determined to make a fool of yourself.

Calm down.

Answer the question? No?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Why would a 7-win Weber team with 4 losses be picked for an at large over an 8-win EWU team with only 3 losses, and a win over MSU, a team that Weber lost to?

As your feline antagonists have already noted, EWU cannot get to 8 DI wins this season. I wasn't even setting a trap for you, but you seem determined to make a fool of yourself.

Calm down.

Answer the question? No?

I know we can't get to 8 D-I wins, and I never said we could. DUH. But we can reach 8 wins, 7 of the D-I, which is the minimum requirement for an at-large selection, and looks better to the committee than 7-4. Please tell me oh wise one, when was the last time a 7-4 team made the playoffs as an at-large? Then tell me the last time an 8-3 teams with still only 7 D-I wins made the playoffs as an at large. In those answers you'll find my point. Nothing foolish about that.

[JALMOND]

As your feline antagonists have already noted, EWU cannot get to 8 DI wins this season. I wasn't even setting a trap for you, but you seem determined to make a fool of yourself.

Calm down.

Answer the question? No?

I know we can't get to 8 D-I wins, and I never said we could. DUH. But we can reach 8 wins, 7 of the D-I, which is the minimum requirement for an at-large selection, and looks better to the committee than 7-4. Please tell me oh wise one, when was the last time a 7-4 team made the playoffs as an at-large? Then tell me the last time an 8-3 teams with still only 7 D-I wins made the playoffs as an at large. In those answers you'll find my point. Nothing foolish about that.

At the risk of bringing this up again, in 2006 Portland State had a record of 7-4, after going 1-2 (yes, three games) against FBS team, all of which won their respective bowl games that year. We stayed home and Montana State, a team that had lost at home to DII Chadron State and also got blown out at home by UC-Davis, went to the playoffs. Why? Simple reason and the reason, Scream, why the Weber fans are bringing this up in your face. Head to head means a lot in the eyes of the committee. If EWU and Weber end up with the same conference record, the committee will take the team that won over the other. (Weber will go before EWU), regardless of the overall record or how you got there.

[GOKATS]

At the risk of bringing this up again, in 2006 Portland State had a record of 7-4, after going 1-2 (yes, three games) against FBS team, all of which won their respective bowl games that year. We stayed home and Montana State, a team that had lost at home to DII Chadron State and also got blown out at home by UC-Davis, went to the playoffs. Why? Simple reason and the reason, Scream, why the Weber fans are bringing this up in your face. Head to head means a lot in the eyes of the committee. If EWU and Weber end up with the same conference record, the committee will take the team that won over the other. (Weber will go before EWU), regardless of the overall record or how you got there.

True the deciding factor was probably the Cats 14-0 win over the Vikings, but the Cats also had a win at Colorado that helped.

[kalm]

I know we can't get to 8 D-I wins, and I never said we could. DUH. But we can reach 8 wins, 7 of the D-I, which is the minimum requirement for an at-large selection, and looks better to the committee than 7-4. Please tell me oh wise one, when was the last time a 7-4 team made the playoffs as an at-large? Then tell me the last time an 8-3 teams with still only 7 D-I wins made the playoffs as an at large. In those answers you'll find my point. Nothing foolish about that.

At the risk of bringing this up again, in 2006 Portland State had a record of 7-4, after going 1-2 (yes, three games) against FBS team, all of which won their respective bowl games that year. We stayed home and Montana State, a team that had lost at home to DII Chadron State and also got blown out at home by UC-Davis, went to the playoffs. Why? Simple reason and the reason, Scream, why the Weber fans are bringing this up in your face. Head to head means a lot in the eyes of the committee. If EWU and Weber end up with the same conference record, the committee will take the team that won over the other. (Weber will go before EWU), regardless of the overall record or how you got there.

Or take both.

You're right Jalmond, I think Weber gets the nod if it's an either/or scenario, but in the Big Sky's defense, that was another year (including EWU in 2004 and 2007) where the BSC got an at-large birth for a team with only 7 DI wins. And all three times, the selection was vindicated as the BSC at-large won its first round game.

Like I said in the other thread, a one or no loss Montana followed by a 7-4 Weber with two close FBS losses, and another 8-3 at large is a real possibility - espcecially if Poly and Davis finish with 4 losses each. Of course that would involve some travel as none of the BSC teams could meet till the 2nd round. Plus, it would be forcing a 5th CAA or 3rd MVC team out of the mix.

[Mike Johnson]

That scenario would come down to Sagarin ranking (the 5 teams would all be 2-2 against the others and common games couldn't be used because they'd all be 4-0 against the bottom half).

Which Sagarin ranking? ELO Chess (the one used by the BCS), the predictor, or the composite?

[cats2506]

Because the DII doesnt count and WSU owns the head to head.

Too bad MSU owns neither. Is that hot sour milk in your mug?

Remember, we have the same record and hold the head to head over Weber

[kalm]

At the risk of bringing this up again, in 2006 Portland State had a record of 7-4, after going 1-2 (yes, three games) against FBS team, all of which won their respective bowl games that year. We stayed home and Montana State, a team that had lost at home to DII Chadron State and also got blown out at home by UC-Davis, went to the playoffs. Why? Simple reason and the reason, Scream, why the Weber fans are bringing this up in your face. Head to head means a lot in the eyes of the committee. If EWU and Weber end up with the same conference record, the committee will take the team that won over the other. (Weber will go before EWU), regardless of the overall record or how you got there.

Or take both.

You're right Jalmond, I think Weber gets the nod if it's an either/or scenario, but in the Big Sky's defense, that was another year (including EWU in 2004 and 2007) where the BSC got an at-large birth for a team with only 7 DI wins. And all three times, the selection was vindicated as the BSC at-large won its first round game.

Like I said in the other thread, a one or no loss Montana followed by a 7-4 Weber with two close FBS losses, and another 8-3 at large is a real possibility - espcecially if Poly and Davis finish with 4 losses each. Of course that would involve some travel as none of the BSC teams could meet till the 2nd round. Plus, it would be forcing a 5th CAA or 3rd MVC team out of the mix.

Check that. Upon reviewing the MVC's standings and remaining schedule, they look pretty tough and solid for 3 bids. The A-12 may only be deserving of three as well.

[native]

As your feline antagonists have already noted, EWU cannot get to 8 DI wins this season. I wasn't even setting a trap for you, but you seem determined to make a fool of yourself.

Calm down.

Answer the question? No?

I know we can't get to 8 D-I wins, and I never said we could. DUH. But we can reach 8 wins, 7 of the D-I, which is the minimum requirement for an at-large selection, and looks better to the committee than 7-4. Please tell me oh wise one, when was the last time a 7-4 team made the playoffs as an at-large? Then tell me the last time an 8-3 teams with still only 7 D-I wins made the playoffs as an at large. In those answers you'll find my point. Nothing foolish about that.

Eags, your DII win does not count one way or the other. Neither does Montana's DII win. Your FBS loss counts, just as our FBS losses count.

Right now, the best record EWU can hope for is 7-3 only IF everything goes right. The best record Weber can hope for is 8-3. Even if WSU loses to Montana, but wins out the rest, Weber will have 3 victories over ranked teams, plus the head to head against EWU, while Eastern Washington will have maybe two quality wins.

I am not trying to make fun of you but you should really sober up and do the math.