FCS Update wrote:
The Big Sky will get 2. Just not sure why you think you can be in that conversation. To me it's Weber/NAU/or MSU. Even IF you are eligible.
Among other scenarios, the clearest is EWU finishing 8-3, Weber beats Montana but loses to NAU. NAU, Weber and EWU tie for 2nd in the BSC, with EWU @ 8-3 and the other two at 7-4. EWU gets in. Not that hard to see.
I think that this situation is unlikely to happen. If you stepped back from your team and took a look at it with a little more neutrality you might see it.
Who would EWUs key wins be over? Lost to Montana, Lost to Weber, and are you assuming win against NAU?
Last edited by FCS Update on Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
JayJ79 wrote:
as far as the committee sees it, EWU would be at 7-3 (the win over Western Oregon doesn't count)
So EWU would have the same amount of D1 wins but one less D1 loss than both NAU and Weber which brings up the problem with scheduling two FBS games and CAA teams getting credit for DI wins versus non or partial schollies while the West Coast teams don't get any for DII's.
Kalm, as Jay points out, one of EWU's victories is over DII Western Oregon. The Eagles are 3-3 in DI play with no top 25 wins and only four games to go. The best possible finish for Eastern Washington is 7 DI wins, which gives them almost zero chance for post season play. I don't like the easy wins the weak sister conferences get over non-schollie "DI" teams every year, but even the weakest DI teams are stronger than the bottom 90% of DII.
Last edited by native on Thu Oct 22, 2009 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Proud Prince of Purple Pomposity YT is not a communist. He's just a ...young pup.
kalm wrote:
Among other scenarios, the clearest is EWU finishing 8-3, Weber beats Montana but loses to NAU. NAU, Weber and EWU tie for 2nd in the BSC, with EWU @ 8-3 and the other two at 7-4. EWU gets in. Not that hard to see.
I think that this situation is unlikely to happen. If you stepped back from your team and took a look at it with a little more neutrality you might see it.
Who would Weber's key wins be over? Lost to Montana, Lost to Weber, and are you assuming win against NAU?
As I claimed on another post, only Weber can beat Weber in FCS competition, but that's not exactly what I meant! The Wildcats cannot be credited in the standings with losing to themselves.
With four conference wins, Weber currently stands in second place in the Big Sky and has a top 25 victory over EWU. If they win out, they will have four quality wins against ranked teams: Eastern Washington, Montana, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly.
After five conference games, Weber leades the Big Sky in total offense, is second in scoring offense, and is second in scoring defense. Based on this week's Sagarin predictor scores, Weber would be favored at home by a FG over NAU and by a TD over Cal Poly. The Griz would be favored by a single TD in Missoula.
Proud Prince of Purple Pomposity YT is not a communist. He's just a ...young pup.
FCS Update wrote:
I think that this situation is unlikely to happen. If you stepped back from your team and took a look at it with a little more neutrality you might see it.
Who would Weber's key wins be over? Lost to Montana, Lost to Weber, and are you assuming win against NAU?
As I claimed on another post, only Weber can beat Weber in FCS competition, but that's not exactly what I meant! The Wildcats cannot be credited in the standings with losing to themselves.
With four conference wins, Weber currently stands in second place in the Big Sky and has a top 25 victory over EWU. If they win out, they will have four quality wins against ranked teams: Eastern Washington, Montana, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly.
After five conference games, Weber leades the Big Sky in total offense, is second in scoring offense, and is second in scoring defense. Based on this week's Sagarin predictor scores, Weber would be favored at home by a FG over NAU and by a TD over Cal Poly. The Griz would be favored by a single TD in Missoula.
With that being said then only Montana can beat Montana.
As I claimed on another post, only Weber can beat Weber in FCS competition, but that's not exactly what I meant! The Wildcats cannot be credited in the standings with losing to themselves.
With four conference wins, Weber currently stands in second place in the Big Sky and has a top 25 victory over EWU. If they win out, they will have four quality wins against ranked teams: Eastern Washington, Montana, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly.
After five conference games, Weber leades the Big Sky in total offense, is second in scoring offense, and is second in scoring defense. Based on this week's Sagarin predictor scores, Weber would be favored at home by a FG over NAU and by a TD over Cal Poly. The Griz would be favored by a single TD in Missoula.
With that being said then only Montana can beat Montana.
I knew someone would say that, and I agree.
Proud Prince of Purple Pomposity YT is not a communist. He's just a ...young pup.
FCS Update wrote:
I think that this situation is unlikely to happen. If you stepped back from your team and took a look at it with a little more neutrality you might see it.
Who would Weber's key wins be over? Lost to Montana, Lost to Weber, and are you assuming win against NAU?
As I claimed on another post, only Weber can beat Weber in FCS competition, but that's not exactly what I meant! The Wildcats cannot be credited in the standings with losing to themselves.
With four conference wins, Weber currently stands in second place in the Big Sky and has a top 25 victory over EWU. If they win out, they will have four quality wins against ranked teams: Eastern Washington, Montana, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly.
After five conference games, Weber leades the Big Sky in total offense, is second in scoring offense, and is second in scoring defense. Based on this week's Sagarin predictor scores, Weber would be favored at home by a FG over NAU and by a TD over Cal Poly. The Griz would be favored by a single TD in Missoula.
Oops. I meant EWU.
If Weber wins out they are a lock for an at large. The only issue is that if they lose even one of those games, they are most likely on the outside looking in.
Even if they do we all know the CAA will have their collective dick sucked with more teams in than they should forcing EWU out even if they win out and win their appeal
CAA envy noted...
“Tolerance and Apathy are the last virtues of a dying society.” Aristotle
Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.
That the only fans of certain teams can hope to get into the playoffs is for a "UD or UMass choke job"...
Might not even take a choke job for UD to miss the playoffs. We lost to #1 and #5 and still travel to #4 Nova and a 5-2 Navy team who will both be heavily favored. As we know, 7-4 won't do it, even if the losses are to three top five teams and an FBS bowl team. Gotta find a way to pull off a stunner to get in.
FCS Update wrote:...If Weber wins out they are a lock for an at large. The only issue is that if they lose even one of those games, they are most likely on the outside looking in.
Not quite. Weber could lose to Cal Poly, finish 7-4, and still win the BSC conference title and the AQ. For the Wildcats to win the title outright, MSU would have to cooperate by losing one of its five remaining games.
Otherwise, if both teams win out their remaining conference games, the title would be shared by MSU and WSU and the Bobcats would get the AQ by virtue of having won the head-to-head matchup with Weber.
Proud Prince of Purple Pomposity YT is not a communist. He's just a ...young pup.
FCS Update wrote:...If Weber wins out they are a lock for an at large. The only issue is that if they lose even one of those games, they are most likely on the outside looking in.
Not quite. Weber could lose to Cal Poly, finish 7-4, and still win the BSC conference title and the AQ. For the Wildcats to win the title outright, MSU would have to cooperate by losing one of its five remaining games.
Otherwise, if both teams win out their remaining conference games, the title would be shared by MSU and WSU and the Bobcats would get the AQ by virtue of having won the head-to-head matchup with Weber.
I agree. I was saying in regards to the at-large. When was the last Wildcat win in Missoula? I'm back to 2002 and the only win I've seen was at home last year.
FCS Update wrote:...When was the last Wildcat win in Missoula? I'm back to 2002 and the only win I've seen was at home last year.
Hell, I don't know if there has ever been a Wildcat win in Missoula, but this would be a great year to knock off the Griz at WA GRIZ. It won't even hurt their playoff chances.
Last edited by native on Fri Oct 23, 2009 8:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
Proud Prince of Purple Pomposity YT is not a communist. He's just a ...young pup.
93henfan wrote:...Might not even take a choke job for UD to miss the playoffs. We lost to #1 and #5 and still travel to #4 Nova and a 5-2 Navy team who will both be heavily favored. As we know, 7-4 won't do it, even if the losses are to three top five teams and an FBS bowl team. Gotta find a way to pull off a stunner to get in.
The Hens' losses are not the problem. The lack of DI wins is the problem.
Considering that the first Delaware victory this season was against non-DI West Chester, UD would have to win three of their final four contests to get to seven DI wins.
Proud Prince of Purple Pomposity YT is not a communist. He's just a ...young pup.
FCS Update wrote:...When was the last Wildcat win in Missoula? I'm back to 2002 and the only win I've seen was at home last year.
Hell, I don't know if there has ever been a Wildcat win in Missoula, but this would be a great year to knock off the Griz at WA GRIZ. It won't even hurt their playoff chances.
Weber State's wins in Missoula:
10/24/87 - WSU 29 UM 26
11/02/85 - WSU 57 UM 29
11/14/81 - WSU 7 UM 6
10/01/77 - WSU 31 UM 23
11/09/68 - WSU 20 UM 16
10/08/66 - WSU 28 UM 0
native wrote:
Hell, I don't know if there has ever been a Wildcat win in Missoula, but this would be a great year to knock off the Griz at WA GRIZ. It won't even hurt their playoff chances.
Weber State's wins in Missoula:
10/24/87 - WSU 29 UM 26
11/02/85 - WSU 57 UM 29
11/14/81 - WSU 7 UM 6
10/01/77 - WSU 31 UM 23
11/09/68 - WSU 20 UM 16
10/08/66 - WSU 28 UM 0
kalm wrote:
Among other scenarios, the clearest is EWU finishing 8-3, Weber beats Montana but loses to NAU. NAU, Weber and EWU tie for 2nd in the BSC, with EWU @ 8-3 and the other two at 7-4. EWU gets in. Not that hard to see.
I think that this situation is unlikely to happen. If you stepped back from your team and took a look at it with a little more neutrality you might see it.
Who would EWUs key wins be over? Lost to Montana, Lost to Weber, and are you assuming win against NAU?
I didn't say whether the situation is likely or unlikely to happen. I was merely responding to your question:
The Big Sky will get 2. Just not sure why you think you can be in that conversation. To me it's Weber/NAU/or MSU. Even IF you are eligible.
The scenario I gave you is one reason among a few others why EWU is in the conversation. All you have to do is look at recent history to realize the possiblities. I gave you one example of EWU being in an almost identical position back in '07 running the table and getting the at large which was vindicated when we boat raced #2 McNeese in the first round. I remember the same kind of comments on the other board half way through that season about the big fluffy and how it was a 1 bid conference.
Or, look at last year when a ranked 6-1 NAU team finished the season with 4 straight losses.
Again, my original point was about the potential for some interesting scenario's to play out in the BSC in regards to the number of at large bids and who gets them. If I was making a prediction that EWU was going to get in, then yes you could hang the objectivity accusation on me. But I'm not, in fact I would place EWU the 4th most likely team to make the playoffs from the conference.
Perhaps you should pay more attention and review your own posts and questions next time before responding.
There's a lot of football left and if you've followed the BSC over the years like I have you realize that there's more than likely to be some additional surprises.
dbackjon wrote:...You honestly think the CAA should get 5 of the 8 at larges?
I think the CAA will get five in the playoffs this year, but it's still a bit early to make reservations.
Although unlikely, I would love to see the Big Sky earn three bids this year. NAU, UM and MSU have done their part by winning OOC DI games. It would have helped had Weber won at least one of its FBS contests, but now Weber is on the bubble every week.
It is extremely unlikely, but still possible for Montana, Weber, Northern Arizona and Montana State to finish with 8 DI victories each. If that is the case, it would be difficult for the selection committe to leave two BSC teams at home.
Proud Prince of Purple Pomposity YT is not a communist. He's just a ...young pup.
I don't like the easy wins the weak sister conferences get over non-schollie "DI" teams every year, but even the weakest DI teams are stronger than the bottom 90% of DII.
That might be the case, but consider that Central Washington beat EWU 3 years ago and lost to the National runner-up Griz in Missoula last year 38-35, Western Washington beat Davis two years ago, and Chadron State beat a Montana State that made it to the quarterfinals a few years back. I'm not saying they're better but it seems like a win against CWU should count the same as a win against Robert Morris.
A friend and I went thru the FCS the other day and came up with, what we believed to be, the teams left with a realistic shot at the playoffs... (my apologies for the "nicknames" of the schools...)
Nova
Richmond
WM
UNH
UMass
Delaware
UNI
SIU
SDSU
SFA
McNeese
Furman
Elon
App
Weber
NAU
Montana
Cal Poly
EIU/TSU/EKU
Laffy/Colgate/HC
SC State
Liberty
Are we off base? It really seems like there aren't many teams out there left that can build a strong enough resume. And there are a few scenarios where Liberty could be as close to the last team in as they've ever been, even closer than last year...
We concluded:
-5 CAA teams is almost a given. 6 is a stretch, but always possible.
-UNI/SIU/SDSU is far from settled, and we could only see two of those teams make it in. SIU being the virtual lock at this point...
- SFA/McNeese should be interesting... No real way of knowing if McNeese will be strong enough, or if SFA would be strong enough without the autobid. I think we can safely rule out an at-large from the SLC, but who knows...
-SoCon is a tough one... GSU technically still looms in the background, but really, it's all about the big 3 in Elon, App, and Furman, but only two of those will get in, more than likely.
-The Big Sky/Cal Poly really will only get 2 of 4 in, and maybe only one. CP is practically a Big Sky member for this year when you consider who they have played, and how their schedule will turn out. Montana could be the only team from out West to make it, and that would be a big help to bubble teams...
So, using our awesome logic, we eliminated UD, McNeese, App, Cal Poly/Weber (or CP and NAU, or NAU and Weber, regardless), which leaves 17 teams left. We figured Liberty would be the weakest of the bunch... so is it off base to think that Liberty is an upset or two away from being the last team in? (such as UMass not making it, SDSU not making it, only Montana making it, etc.)
There are 8 autobids...then, so count them in...then comes the at-large bids...
CAA gets 4 at-large...
BSC will get one or two IMHO...depends on a number of factors
I agree on SLC...just the autobid
SOCON will get 2 at large, IMHO
If the BSC doesn't get two at-large bids...the SLC will get the one remaining...
“Tolerance and Apathy are the last virtues of a dying society.” Aristotle
Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.
Col Hogan wrote:There are 8 autobids...then, so count them in...then comes the at-large bids...
CAA gets 4 at-large...
BSC will get one or two IMHO...depends on a number of factors
I agree on SLC...just the autobid
SOCON will get 2 at large, IMHO
If the BSC doesn't get two at-large bids...the SLC will get the one remaining...
So, if my personal thoughts are that the CAA gets four, the BSC gets one, the SLC gets zero, the SOCON gets one, wouldn't that leave the door open for Liberty? Or are we really that weak? Especially if Lafayette goes on to win the Patriot League... or if JMU manages to finish 6-5...
Col Hogan wrote:There are 8 autobids...then, so count them in...then comes the at-large bids...
CAA gets 4 at-large...
BSC will get one or two IMHO...depends on a number of factors
I agree on SLC...just the autobid
SOCON will get 2 at large, IMHO
If the BSC doesn't get two at-large bids...the SLC will get the one remaining...
So, if my personal thoughts are that the CAA gets four, the BSC gets one, the SLC gets zero, the SOCON gets one, wouldn't that leave the door open for Liberty? Or are we really that weak? Especially if Lafayette goes on to win the Patriot League... or if JMU manages to finish 6-5...
To be honest, I think the SOCON plays an overall stronger schedule...and will get the two at-large bids (right now....things can change)...
And the playoffs need to take the strongest teams in at-large bids, since a few of the autos aren't the strongest...
“Tolerance and Apathy are the last virtues of a dying society.” Aristotle
Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.
I dunno, I guess I just feel like, since we're probably on pace to wind up around the middle of the GPI, right on the bubble, that we're a lot closer than most are giving us credit for...
