New Playoff Predictions

[DukeJack]

And isn't Elon the closest to Richmond by far? Just curious, why SCSU?

[kalm]

A real interesting scenario would be for Weber and EWU to both run the table, finish 8-3, and Montana finish 10-1. I hope it doesn't happen because EWU would most likely be the 1st team out, but the big fluffy has got 3 in before and the conference GPI would have to be fairly high at that point.

[kalm]

Same thing holds true if NAU and EWU finish 8-3. Either scenario is not outside the realm of possibility.

[native]

SFAs getting **** if they have to go to Montana. I know the Jacks don't have **** to put up to host, but if they keep playing the way they are, its messed up to send them up there.

[native]

A real interesting scenario would be for Weber and EWU to both run the table, finish 8-3, and Montana finish 10-1. I hope it doesn't happen because EWU would most likely be the 1st team out, but the big fluffy has got 3 in before and the conference GPI would have to be fairly high at that point.

One of the Eagles' four victories is over Western Oregon. With only four games left to play, it's too late for EWU to run the table and get eight victories for a chance at an at-large bid. Admittedly the minimum DI wins to make the playoffs is seven, but with losses to UM and WSU, Eastern Washington's resume is unlikely to be competitive for those last couple of at-large invitations.

A more likely scenario would be for Weber and NAU to be fighting for that possible at-large bid. NAU actually has a chance to finish with 9 DI wins if they manage to beat Ole Miss in Oxford. If they lose to Mississippi, the Lumberjacks still have to beat Weber in Ogden and Eastern Washington at home to get to 8 DI wins.

But first, Montana has to beat Weber.

[UNHWildCats]

A real interesting scenario would be for Weber and EWU to both run the table, finish 8-3, and Montana finish 10-1. I hope it doesn't happen because EWU would most likely be the 1st team out, but the big fluffy has got 3 in before and the conference GPI would have to be fairly high at that point.

Theres the whole thing with EWU not being allowed to participate in the playoffs too.

[Mvemjsunpx]

A real interesting scenario would be for Weber and EWU to both run the table, finish 8-3, and Montana finish 10-1. I hope it doesn't happen because EWU would most likely be the 1st team out, but the big fluffy has got 3 in before and the conference GPI would have to be fairly high at that point.

Theres the whole thing with EWU not being allowed to participate in the playoffs too.

Unless they win their appeal.

[clenz]

Theres the whole thing with EWU not being allowed to participate in the playoffs too.

Unless they win their appeal.

Even if they do we all know the CAA will have their collective dick sucked with more teams in than they should forcing EWU out even if they win out and win their appeal

[kalm]

A real interesting scenario would be for Weber and EWU to both run the table, finish 8-3, and Montana finish 10-1. I hope it doesn't happen because EWU would most likely be the 1st team out, but the big fluffy has got 3 in before and the conference GPI would have to be fairly high at that point.

One of the Eagles' four victories is over Western Oregon. With only four games left to play, it's too late for EWU to run the table and get eight victories for a chance at an at-large bid. Admittedly the minimum DI wins to make the playoffs is seven, but with losses to UM and WSU, Eastern Washington's resume is unlikely to be competitive for those last couple of at-large invitations.

A more likely scenario would be for Weber and NAU to be fighting for that possible at-large bid. NAU actually has a chance to finish with 9 DI wins if they manage to beat Ole Miss in Oxford. If they lose to Mississippi, the Lumberjacks still have to beat Weber in Ogden and Eastern Washington at home to get to 8 DI wins.

But first, Montana has to beat Weber.

We would have the same record, same amount of DI wins, and a better resume than when we got the at-large in 2007. That year, one of our losses was to a sub-.500 PSU team whereas this year our losses would be to an FBS and two ranked FCS teams (assuming Weber has only one or two more losses.) I know that 7 DI wins is a threshold, but I'm not sure that 8 DI wins is as important as quality wins and losses - especially if we're up against a 7-4 or 8-3, 4th or 5th placed CAA team that is counting a DI non-schollie as one of its wins.

And just like 2007 we would be riding a substantial winning streak which I also think helps.

The more likely scenario would be if Weber beats Montana but loses to an 8-3 NAU. You would have: UM 10-1, EWU 8-3, NAU 8-3, and Weber 7-4. All 4 would finish the season ranked, the conference GPI would remain high, and we would have beat NAU head to head. But I still submit that you can make a case for 3 in either way.

[FCS Update]

We would have the same record, same amount of DI wins, and a better resume than when we got the at-large in 2007. That year, one of our losses was to a sub-.500 PSU team whereas this year our losses would be to an FBS and two ranked FCS teams (assuming Weber has only one or two more losses.) I know that 7 DI wins is a threshold, but I'm not sure that 8 DI wins is as important as quality wins and losses - especially if we're up against a 7-4 or 8-3, 4th or 5th placed CAA team that is counting a DI non-schollie as one of its wins.

And just like 2007 we would be riding a substantial winning streak which I also think helps.

The more likely scenario would be if Weber beats Montana but loses to an 8-3 NAU. You would have: UM 10-1, EWU 8-3, NAU 8-3, and Weber 7-4. All 4 would finish the season ranked, the conference GPI would remain high, and we would have beat NAU head to head. But I still submit that you can make a case for 3 in either way.

This isn't 2007 though. The CAA has 6-7 teams with a playoff arguement right now, and they all have a better resume than EWU.

[kalm]

We would have the same record, same amount of DI wins, and a better resume than when we got the at-large in 2007. That year, one of our losses was to a sub-.500 PSU team whereas this year our losses would be to an FBS and two ranked FCS teams (assuming Weber has only one or two more losses.) I know that 7 DI wins is a threshold, but I'm not sure that 8 DI wins is as important as quality wins and losses - especially if we're up against a 7-4 or 8-3, 4th or 5th placed CAA team that is counting a DI non-schollie as one of its wins.

And just like 2007 we would be riding a substantial winning streak which I also think helps.

The more likely scenario would be if Weber beats Montana but loses to an 8-3 NAU. You would have: UM 10-1, EWU 8-3, NAU 8-3, and Weber 7-4. All 4 would finish the season ranked, the conference GPI would remain high, and we would have beat NAU head to head. But I still submit that you can make a case for 3 in either way.

This isn't 2007 though. The CAA has 6-7 teams with a playoff arguement right now, and they all have a better resume than EWU.

That's why the thread is entitled Playoff Predictions and not "if the playoffs started tomorrow". And just like today, in 2007 at this point in the season there were 6-7 CAA teams with a better resume and by the end there were 2-3, and the BSC got a second team that as usuall represented quite well.

[FCS Update]

This isn't 2007 though. The CAA has 6-7 teams with a playoff arguement right now, and they all have a better resume than EWU.

That's why the thread is entitled Playoff Predictions and not "if the playoffs started tomorrow". And just like today, in 2007 at this point in the season there were 6-7 CAA teams with a better resume and by the end there were 2-3, and the BSC got a second team that as usuall represented quite well.

The Big Sky will get 2. Just not sure why you think you can be in that conversation. To me it's Weber/NAU/or MSU. Even IF you are eligible.

[kalm]

That's why the thread is entitled Playoff Predictions and not "if the playoffs started tomorrow". And just like today, in 2007 at this point in the season there were 6-7 CAA teams with a better resume and by the end there were 2-3, and the BSC got a second team that as usuall represented quite well.

The Big Sky will get 2. Just not sure why you think you can be in that conversation. To me it's Weber/NAU/or MSU. Even IF you are eligible.

Among other scenarios, the clearest is EWU finishing 8-3, Weber beats Montana but loses to NAU. NAU, Weber and EWU tie for 2nd in the BSC, with EWU @ 8-3 and the other two at 7-4. EWU gets in. Not that hard to see.

[JayJ79]

Among other scenarios, the clearest is EWU finishing 8-3, Weber beats Montana but loses to NAU. NAU, Weber and EWU tie for 2nd in the BSC, with EWU @ 8-3 and the other two at 7-4. EWU gets in. Not that hard to see.

as far as the committee sees it, EWU would be at 7-3 (the win over Western Oregon doesn't count)

[kalm]

Among other scenarios, the clearest is EWU finishing 8-3, Weber beats Montana but loses to NAU. NAU, Weber and EWU tie for 2nd in the BSC, with EWU @ 8-3 and the other two at 7-4. EWU gets in. Not that hard to see.

as far as the committee sees it, EWU would be at 7-3 (the win over Western Oregon doesn't count)

So EWU would have the same amount of D1 wins but one less D1 loss than both NAU and Weber which brings up the problem with scheduling two FBS games and CAA teams getting credit for DI wins versus non or partial schollies while the West Coast teams don't get any for DII's.

[JayJ79]

as far as the committee sees it, EWU would be at 7-3 (the win over Western Oregon doesn't count)

So EWU would have the same amount of D1 wins but one less D1 loss than both NAU and Weber which brings up the problem with scheduling two FBS games and CAA teams getting credit for DI wins versus non or partial schollies while the West Coast teams don't get any for DII's.

yep, the "Div. I" non-schollies are a bit of a loophole in the FCS playoff system. And yes, the east coast teams may have some advantage in scheduling them, given proximity. But then the west coast teams are always going to have more difficulty in scheduling due to distances/proximity, just because of the higher density of FCS-level programs out east.

Teams know about the drawbacks of scheduling sub-DI opponents beforehand, but decide that the benefit of the extra home game outweighs that drawback.

[danefan]

as far as the committee sees it, EWU would be at 7-3 (the win over Western Oregon doesn't count)

So EWU would have the same amount of D1 wins but one less D1 loss than both NAU and Weber which brings up the problem with scheduling two FBS games and CAA teams getting credit for DI wins versus non or partial schollies while the West Coast teams don't get any for DII's.

Is that really a problem? The NEC teams would be happy to come out and play you guys on the West Coast. Cover the cost of travel (like the East Coast teams do) and I'm sure the NEC teams would jump on a plain.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

So EWU would have the same amount of D1 wins but one less D1 loss than both NAU and Weber which brings up the problem with scheduling two FBS games and CAA teams getting credit for DI wins versus non or partial schollies while the West Coast teams don't get any for DII's.

Is that really a problem? The NEC teams would be happy to come out and play you guys on the West Coast. Cover the cost of travel (like the East Coast teams do) and I'm sure the NEC teams would jump on a plain.

I've always wondered why there isn't a few more of the NEC games played out this way. I really enjoyed the Albany games and the chance to see them play.

[danefan]

Is that really a problem? The NEC teams would be happy to come out and play you guys on the West Coast. Cover the cost of travel (like the East Coast teams do) and I'm sure the NEC teams would jump on a plain.

I've always wondered why there isn't a few more of the NEC games played out this way. I really enjoyed the Albany games and the chance to see them play.

Its not on our end. Wagner traveled to NDSU this year. St. Francis traveled to UNI. As long as the costs are reasonable NEC teams would jump all over it. Its a great recruiting tool for us.

I understand some teams not wanting to schedule Albany anymore. It makes more sense for Big Sky, Great West and MVFC teams to schedule the bottom of the NEC becuase its pretty much a guaranteed win, like Albany used to be.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

I've always wondered why there isn't a few more of the NEC games played out this way. I really enjoyed the Albany games and the chance to see them play.

Its not on our end. Wagner traveled to NDSU this year. St. Francis traveled to UNI. As long as the costs are reasonable NEC teams would jump all over it. Its a great recruiting tool for us.

I understand some teams not wanting to schedule Albany anymore. It makes more sense for Big Sky, Great West and MVFC teams to schedule the bottom of the NEC becuase its pretty much a guaranteed win, like Albany used to be.

No I was talking about from the West's end of the deal. It must be due to lack of fan support and perceived interest due to the distance but it doesn't stop West teams from scheduling D2's to fill the schedule.

[danefan]

Its not on our end. Wagner traveled to NDSU this year. St. Francis traveled to UNI. As long as the costs are reasonable NEC teams would jump all over it. Its a great recruiting tool for us.

I understand some teams not wanting to schedule Albany anymore. It makes more sense for Big Sky, Great West and MVFC teams to schedule the bottom of the NEC becuase its pretty much a guaranteed win, like Albany used to be.

No I was talking about from the West's end of the deal. It must be due to lack of fan support and perceived interest due to the distance but it doesn't stop West teams from scheduling D2's to fill the schedule.

Maybe it will change when schools can say they are scheduling teams from a playoff conference?

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

No I was talking about from the West's end of the deal. It must be due to lack of fan support and perceived interest due to the distance but it doesn't stop West teams from scheduling D2's to fill the schedule.

Maybe it will change when schools can say they are scheduling teams from a playoff conference?

I would bet that will make a pretty good difference.

[AZGrizFan]

What do you find amusing?

Probably the fact that there are at least two CAA teams not listed that would wax half the teams listed.

But of course you like it (for obvious reasons), so what does our opinion matter?

So? There's two BSC teams not listed that would ALSO wax half the teams listed. That's the problem with autobids....the weaker conferences take up a spot for a more deserving (read: better) team.

[93henfan]

Probably the fact that there are at least two CAA teams not listed that would wax half the teams listed.

But of course you like it (for obvious reasons), so what does our opinion matter?

So? There's two BSC teams not listed that would ALSO wax half the teams listed. That's the problem with autobids....the weaker conferences take up a spot for a more deserving (read: better) team.

Couldn't agree more.

[FCS Update]

So? There's two BSC teams not listed that would ALSO wax half the teams listed. That's the problem with autobids....the weaker conferences take up a spot for a more deserving (read: better) team.

Couldn't agree more.

Agreed