I didn't realize we started counting losses more than wins. Especially the domination of what appears to be shaping up to be a decent team.CatMom wrote:Umm.....didn't UNI just miss beating Iowa?Thumper 76 wrote:They beat all the same people basically, except that GSU is looking like a stronger OCC game than anything UNI has....
The SIU and UNI games are both in Brookings. There is a good chance SDSU wins at least one of those home games. SIU is the only one with a quality win so far.bench wrote:Yes, he did. He also noted that SD St. has to play UNI and SIU, the two Valley opponents who have looked better thus far, and an FBS game at Minnesota. Winning one of three will get them in. Lose all three and they're out. The only remaining opponent of note for both UNI and SIU is SDSU. SIU would have to lose three of five to be sitting at home on Thanksgiving. A UNI team at 8-3 will get in, which is very likely. A South Dakota State team at 8-3 will get in. I don't think they'll get there, but I could always be wrong. Now stop being dense in the pursuit of sticking it to UNI.
I'd hate to belabor the point too if I had 800 yards of offense and 3 TDs to show for it.JBB wrote:I hate to belabor the point, but NDSU had over 500 yds on UNI and over 300 against SIU and they are, according to a lot of people, one of the worst teams in the league, yet they did as well or better than all that high powered talent.houndawg wrote:
Pummeled by a 1-6 team.
Here's a newsflash, Poindexter, UNI is pissed off about looking bad against the Dawgs and they are going to take it out on the Jacks. Last week's defense was actually quite good by both teams, what you must have have missed is that the FCS' leading rusher and No. 2 rated QB were at the game and battling for the league crown. Both defenses were going against two of the highest powered offenses in the FCS.
Your guy can get as mad as he wants hope he fumes all week but if NDSU can put up 500 on UNI SDSU can too and they dont make silly mistakes.
The guy that started this thread didnt even mention SDSU. its UNI that is outside looking in. The top playoff teams from the MVFC:
SIU
SDSU
Weber and Montana State could still get to 8 DI wins by winning out, in the process knocking Montana down to 8-2 and maybe even out of the post-season. Not likely, but possible. Northern Arizona could get to nine wins by winning out.bench wrote:The likeliest playoff contenders of the moment and expected number of bids by conference:
Big Sky: Two bids — Montana AND NAU OR Montana St. (Schedule victim: Weber)
... and likely at-large teams with softer remaining schedules:
...there's 11 teams vying for five available at-large playoff spots: NAU, Montana St., Weber...
Good analysis...thanks...native wrote:Weber and Montana State could still get to 8 DI wins by winning out, in the process knocking Montana down to 8-2 and maybe even out of the post-season. Not likely, but possible. Northern Arizona could get to nine wins by winning out.bench wrote:The likeliest playoff contenders of the moment and expected number of bids by conference:
Big Sky: Two bids — Montana AND NAU OR Montana St. (Schedule victim: Weber)
... and likely at-large teams with softer remaining schedules:
...there's 11 teams vying for five available at-large playoff spots: NAU, Montana St., Weber...
Weber and Northern Arizona cannot both win out, since they face each other in Ogden on 14 November. NAU, MSU and WSU could conceivably all three finish the season with 8 DI wins, if they each win out the remainder of their schedules except for the Lumberjack-Wildcat showdown in Ogden. If this is the case, Montana State would win the Big Sky conference and auto-bid outright by virtue of having only one conference loss.
Following the Week 7 games of 17 October, here are the DI records of the current Big Sky contenders:
Montana (5-0 DI): No losses and one top 25 win over Cal Poly with five DI games remaining, including Weber and Montana State. Could sustain one loss and still win a share of the Big Sky conference championship and an invitation to participate in the playoffs. UM would still have eight DI wins if they lose two regular season games.
Northern Arizona (4-2 DI): With one loss to an FBS team, one loss in overtime to Montana, one top 25 victory over Montana State, and five games remaining, the Lumberjacks are firmly in control of their own destiny. Upcoming games include Ole Miss, followed by Weber State and Eastern Washington. NAU could finish with nine wins and a share of the Big Sky title by winning out.
Weber State (4-3 DI): The Wildcats are not a schedule victim yet, but with three close losses to two FBS teams and Montana State, they almost certainly must win out. The 'cats have one top 25 win over Eastern Washington with four games to go, including Montana, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly. WSU could claim the Big Sky title and auto-bid outright by winning out to finish with 8 DI wins. If Weber loses to Montana, the Wildcats could still theoretically earn an at-large invitation by otherwise winning out to achieve the minimum 7 DI wins, including 3 quality top 25 victories, but the competition among the other remaining top 25 teams would be fierce.
Montana State (3-2 DI): the Bobcats have one top 25 win over Weber and a loss to NAU, with five games remaining. MSU could achieve 8 DI wins and at least a share of the Big Sky title by winning out. To do so they must beat Eastern Washington on the road and Montana at home in the final game of the regular season. Either Weber of Eastern Washington would have to knock off NAU for MSU to win the Big Sky title outright.
Eastern Washington (3-3 DI): EWU has no "quality" wins, and has sustained losses to both Weber and Montana. With only four games remaining, they have no chance for 8 DI wins. Even if the NCAA post season ban is lifted, the Eags' resume is too weak for seven wins to make a case for an invitation.
Somehow I didn't see that NAU has to play Ole Miss. So yeah, that means NAU pretty much has to win the rest of their conference games, or beat Ole Miss if they drop one, or they're out. Montana St. can afford one loss, probably to Montana, but more than one and they're out. Weber has to win out, period. Not saying any of these three teams can't do what needs to be done, but with all the variance you see from week to week and the parity between the teams involved, it's almost asking too much of any team in the country to win four or five in a row. It's looking increasingly likely that the Big Sky will wind up being a one bid league.native wrote:Northern Arizona (4-2 DI): With one loss to an FBS team, one loss in overtime to Montana, one top 25 victory over Montana State, and five games remaining, the Lumberjacks are firmly in control of their own destiny. Upcoming games include Ole Miss, followed by Weber State and Eastern Washington. NAU could finish with nine wins and a share of the Big Sky title by winning out.
Weber State (4-3 DI): The Wildcats are not a schedule victim yet, but with three close losses to two FBS teams and Montana State, they almost certainly must win out. The 'cats have one top 25 win over Eastern Washington with four games to go, including Montana, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly. WSU could claim the Big Sky title and auto-bid outright by winning out to finish with 8 DI wins. If Weber loses to Montana, the Wildcats could still theoretically earn an at-large invitation by otherwise winning out to achieve the minimum 7 DI wins, including 3 quality top 25 victories, but the competition among the other remaining top 25 teams would be fierce.
Montana State (3-2 DI): the Bobcats have one top 25 win over Weber and a loss to NAU, with five games remaining. MSU could achieve 8 DI wins and at least a share of the Big Sky title by winning out. To do so they must beat Eastern Washington on the road and Montana at home in the final game of the regular season. Either Weber of Eastern Washington would have to knock off NAU for MSU to win the Big Sky title outright.
Precisely why I was on my "scheduling" kick a few weeks back. These three teams basically scheduled themselves out of the playoffs for the almighty dollar.bench wrote:
Somehow I didn't see that NAU has to play Ole Miss. So yeah, that means NAU pretty much has to win the rest of their conference games, or beat Ole Miss if they drop one, or they're out. Montana St. can afford one loss, probably to Montana, but more than one and they're out. Weber has to win out, period. Not saying any of these three teams can't do what needs to be done, but with all the variance you see from week to week and the parity between the teams involved, it's almost asking too much of any team in the country to win four or five in a row. It's looking increasingly likely that the Big Sky will wind up being a one bid league.
Also note that right now I'm assuming there are going to be several teams to pick from with good at-large resumes at 8-3. If those teams start taking on water later in the season, teams with OK to decent resumes with bowl series losses and 7-4 records will get put back into the mix, but the bar hasn't been lowered yet. If you want the Big Sky (or the SoCon, for that matter) to get a second bid, right now you're pulling for upsets and spoilers everywhere else.
bench wrote:Somehow I didn't see that NAU has to play Ole Miss. So yeah, that means NAU pretty much has to win the rest of their conference games, or beat Ole Miss if they drop one, or they're out. Montana St. can afford one loss, probably to Montana, but more than one and they're out. Weber has to win out, period. Not saying any of these three teams can't do what needs to be done, but with all the variance you see from week to week and the parity between the teams involved, it's almost asking too much of any team in the country to win four or five in a row. It's looking increasingly likely that the Big Sky will wind up being a one bid league.native wrote:Northern Arizona (4-2 DI): With one loss to an FBS team, one loss in overtime to Montana, one top 25 victory over Montana State, and five games remaining, the Lumberjacks are firmly in control of their own destiny. Upcoming games include Ole Miss, followed by Weber State and Eastern Washington. NAU could finish with nine wins and a share of the Big Sky title by winning out.
Weber State (4-3 DI): The Wildcats are not a schedule victim yet, but with three close losses to two FBS teams and Montana State, they almost certainly must win out. The 'cats have one top 25 win over Eastern Washington with four games to go, including Montana, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly. WSU could claim the Big Sky title and auto-bid outright by winning out to finish with 8 DI wins. If Weber loses to Montana, the Wildcats could still theoretically earn an at-large invitation by otherwise winning out to achieve the minimum 7 DI wins, including 3 quality top 25 victories, but the competition among the other remaining top 25 teams would be fierce.
Montana State (3-2 DI): the Bobcats have one top 25 win over Weber and a loss to NAU, with five games remaining. MSU could achieve 8 DI wins and at least a share of the Big Sky title by winning out. To do so they must beat Eastern Washington on the road and Montana at home in the final game of the regular season. Either Weber of Eastern Washington would have to knock off NAU for MSU to win the Big Sky title outright.
Also note that right now I'm assuming there are going to be several teams to pick from with good at-large resumes at 8-3. If those teams start taking on water later in the season, teams with OK to decent resumes with bowl series losses and 7-4 records will get put back into the mix, but the bar hasn't been lowered yet. If you want the Big Sky (or the SoCon, for that matter) to get a second bid, right now you're pulling for upsets and spoilers everywhere else.
AZGrizFan wrote:Precisely why I was on my "scheduling" kick a few weeks back. These three teams basically scheduled themselves out of the playoffs for the almighty dollar.bench wrote:
Somehow I didn't see that NAU has to play Ole Miss. So yeah, that means NAU pretty much has to win the rest of their conference games, or beat Ole Miss if they drop one, or they're out. Montana St. can afford one loss, probably to Montana, but more than one and they're out. Weber has to win out, period. Not saying any of these three teams can't do what needs to be done, but with all the variance you see from week to week and the parity between the teams involved, it's almost asking too much of any team in the country to win four or five in a row. It's looking increasingly likely that the Big Sky will wind up being a one bid league.
Also note that right now I'm assuming there are going to be several teams to pick from with good at-large resumes at 8-3. If those teams start taking on water later in the season, teams with OK to decent resumes with bowl series losses and 7-4 records will get put back into the mix, but the bar hasn't been lowered yet. If you want the Big Sky (or the SoCon, for that matter) to get a second bid, right now you're pulling for upsets and spoilers everywhere else.
The benchmark is 7 DI wins, isn't it?native wrote:
Nice analysis, Bench!
One correction: You seem to have overlooked that one of Montana State's victories is over DII Dixie State, which gives the Bobcats only three DI wins with five games to go. Montana State therefore has no chance at the post season unless they win out to get eight DI victories.
Difference is, even if the Griz lose BOTH of those games, they're in at 9-2. Weber or MSU lose one more, and they're done. Cooked. Because they've left themselves no margin for error.native wrote:Scheduling is a double-edged sword, AZG. One of the reasons that an at-large invitation will be hard for teams like Weber this year is that so many CAA teams won their out of conference FBS matchups and has a good chance to get five teams and possibly even six teams into the post-season.AZGrizFan wrote:Precisely why I was on my "scheduling" kick a few weeks back. These three teams basically scheduled themselves out of the playoffs for the almighty dollar.
The Griz still have to beat Weber and Montana State...
The minimum benchmark is indeed 7 DI wins, but that would not guarantee a post-season invitation for MSU. It would merely put the Bobcats into competition with other bubble teams for an at-large invitation. Many of those teams will probably have eight or more wins. With only one top 25 victory and a 7-3 DI record, the MSU resume is unlikely to be competitive.Catattack wrote:The benchmark is 7 DI wins, isn't it?native wrote:
Nice analysis, Bench!
One correction: You seem to have overlooked that one of Montana State's victories is over DII Dixie State, which gives the Bobcats only three DI wins with five games to go. Montana State therefore has no chance at the post season unless they win out to get eight DI victories.
Western State does not count!AZGrizFan wrote:Difference is, even if the Griz lose BOTH of those games, they're in at 9-2. Weber or MSU lose one more, and they're done. Cooked. Because they've left themselves no margin for error.native wrote:
Scheduling is a double-edged sword, AZG. One of the reasons that an at-large invitation will be hard for teams like Weber this year is that so many CAA teams won their out of conference FBS matchups and has a good chance to get five teams and possibly even six teams into the post-season.
The Griz still have to beat Weber and Montana State...
Ask UMass and Hofstra if they'd like to trade their FBS loss for an FCS cupcake, firming up their chances at the playoffs....right now they're bubble teams and have to win out. They wouldn't be in that position if they'd scheduled appropriately. Yeah, 4 CAA teams won their FBS games, but they don't count any more than an FCS win...why take the chance...
I understand where you're coming from, but unfortunately teams don't decide to schedule guarantee games based solely from a playoffs standpoint. It would be nice if they could, but five home dates with an average attendance of less than ten thousand just doesn't feed the bulldog, the bulldog in this case being the track teams and women's soccer.AZGrizFan wrote:Precisely why I was on my "scheduling" kick a few weeks back. These three teams basically scheduled themselves out of the playoffs for the almighty dollar.bench wrote:
Somehow I didn't see that NAU has to play Ole Miss. So yeah, that means NAU pretty much has to win the rest of their conference games, or beat Ole Miss if they drop one, or they're out. Montana St. can afford one loss, probably to Montana, but more than one and they're out. Weber has to win out, period. Not saying any of these three teams can't do what needs to be done, but with all the variance you see from week to week and the parity between the teams involved, it's almost asking too much of any team in the country to win four or five in a row. It's looking increasingly likely that the Big Sky will wind up being a one bid league.
Also note that right now I'm assuming there are going to be several teams to pick from with good at-large resumes at 8-3. If those teams start taking on water later in the season, teams with OK to decent resumes with bowl series losses and 7-4 records will get put back into the mix, but the bar hasn't been lowered yet. If you want the Big Sky (or the SoCon, for that matter) to get a second bid, right now you're pulling for upsets and spoilers everywhere else.
I get it that Western State doesn't count. Neither do losses to Wyoming or Colorado State.native wrote:Western State does not count!
Montana with 2 losses would be 8-2 in DI, shipmate, not 9-2! That would mean that both Weber and Montana State would have beaten Montana, leaving WSU, MSU and Montana 1-2-3 in conference standings and all three teams with 8 DI wins.
This is the best possible result for the Big Sky as a conference because if enough other top 25 teams beat each other up, all three would have a chance to make the playoffs this year.
Oh, by the way, if Weber prevails at WA GRIZ in two weeks, will you be wishing to trade that meaningless NAIA cupcake win for an FCS or FBS win, AZGRIZ???
They're one of the few gravy trains the NCAA can count on in the playoffs. Agreed. Montana will get in even at 8-2 DI wins.AZGrizFan wrote:I get it that Western State doesn't count. Neither do losses to Wyoming or Colorado State.native wrote:Western State does not count!
Montana with 2 losses would be 8-2 in DI, shipmate, not 9-2! That would mean that both Weber and Montana State would have beaten Montana, leaving WSU, MSU and Montana 1-2-3 in conference standings and all three teams with 8 DI wins.
This is the best possible result for the Big Sky as a conference because if enough other top 25 teams beat each other up, all three would have a chance to make the playoffs this year.
Oh, by the way, if Weber prevails at WA GRIZ in two weeks, will you be wishing to trade that meaningless NAIA cupcake win for an FCS or FBS win, AZGRIZ???
And I will GUARANTEE you that @ 9-2, even with a D-II win, Montana gets in.
IMO, UNI is a lock at 8-3, but a loss and 7-4 makes it more interesting. I doubt they lose again though.ToTheLeft wrote:The question is... is UNI in doubt now?
They have been highly rated all year. However, other than a close loss to Iowa, what have they WON? Nothing, really. They've lost to the only two playoff teams they'll face. I think they'll make it if they win out, regardless of whether or not they SHOULD go (with the weak field that is setting up, I think they will deserve a spot with only 3 losses). However, what if they lose one of their last three? Are they still in at 7-4? Just something to consider, since I know I had UNI as a shoe in until I really looked at their schedule...
Do they DESERVE to be in at 8-3 with no good wins, tho? I mean, I guess Maine did something similar last year, but still...Gil Dobie wrote:IMO, UNI is a lock at 8-3, but a loss and 7-4 makes it more interesting. I doubt they lose again though.ToTheLeft wrote:The question is... is UNI in doubt now?
They have been highly rated all year. However, other than a close loss to Iowa, what have they WON? Nothing, really. They've lost to the only two playoff teams they'll face. I think they'll make it if they win out, regardless of whether or not they SHOULD go (with the weak field that is setting up, I think they will deserve a spot with only 3 losses). However, what if they lose one of their last three? Are they still in at 7-4? Just something to consider, since I know I had UNI as a shoe in until I really looked at their schedule...
They would be 8-2 vs FCS, so yes IMO, they are in. And yes they could lose to Youngstown.ToTheLeft wrote:Do they DESERVE to be in at 8-3 with no good wins, tho? I mean, I guess Maine did something similar last year, but still...Gil Dobie wrote:
IMO, UNI is a lock at 8-3, but a loss and 7-4 makes it more interesting. I doubt they lose again though.
And a loss to Youngstown is a possibility, but not likely.
Certainly not a lock at 8-3. In fact, I wouldn't count on it.Gil Dobie wrote:IMO, UNI is a lock at 8-3, but a loss and 7-4 makes it more interesting. I doubt they lose again though.ToTheLeft wrote:The question is... is UNI in doubt now?
They have been highly rated all year. However, other than a close loss to Iowa, what have they WON? Nothing, really. They've lost to the only two playoff teams they'll face. I think they'll make it if they win out, regardless of whether or not they SHOULD go (with the weak field that is setting up, I think they will deserve a spot with only 3 losses). However, what if they lose one of their last three? Are they still in at 7-4? Just something to consider, since I know I had UNI as a shoe in until I really looked at their schedule...
Liberty would be 8-1 against FCS if they win out, but that wouldn't put them in.Gil Dobie wrote:They would be 8-2 vs FCS, so yes IMO, they are in. And yes they could lose to Youngstown.ToTheLeft wrote:
Do they DESERVE to be in at 8-3 with no good wins, tho? I mean, I guess Maine did something similar last year, but still...
And a loss to Youngstown is a possibility, but not likely.
IMO, if Liberty played in the MVFC, with a 8-3 record, they are in.ToTheLeft wrote:Liberty would be 8-1 against FCS if they win out, but that wouldn't put them in.Gil Dobie wrote:
They would be 8-2 vs FCS, so yes IMO, they are in. And yes they could lose to Youngstown.
So then honestly... their name, combined with an 8-2 record, is what's good enough to get in.
