Playoffs: Where we stand (10/17)

[bench]

The likeliest playoff contenders of the moment and expected number of bids by conference:

Big Sky: Two bids — Montana AND NAU OR Montana St. (Schedule victim: Weber)
CAA: Five bids — (North) UNH AND UMass, (South) UR, 'Nova AND W&M (Schedule victim: UD)
MEAC: One bid — SC St.
MVC: Two bids — SIU AND UNI (Schedule victim: SD St.)
OVC: One bid — EKU OR EIU
Patriot: One bid — Colgate OR Holy Cross OR Lafayette
SoCon: One or two bids — Elon AND MAYBE ASU OR Furman (Schedule victims: ASU and Furman)
SLC: Two or three bids — SFA AND McNeese AND/OR SE La. (Schedule victim: SE La.)

The all-but-locked-up bids at this moment — this list accounts for still-murky single-bid conference championship races, auto-bid front-runners with decent at-large resumes in case of slight disasters, and likely at-large teams with softer remaining schedules:

Montana
UNH
UR
'Nova
SC St.
SIU
UNI
EKU OR EIU
Colgate OR Holy Cross OR Lafayette
Elon
SFA

So basically there's 11 teams vying for five available at-large playoff spots: NAU, Montana St., Weber, UMass, W&M, UD, SD St., ASU, Furman, McNeese, and SE La. The MEAC, OVC, and Patriot conferences are almost definitely one-bid leagues, and at this point it seems unlikely Albany will be able to meet the requirements necessary to earn a bid.

Don't like what Magic 8-Ball tells me? Just wait a week and shit will undoubtedly change.

EDIT: Scratched UCA, since they're not eligible and I'm a stupid idiot who can't remember shit

[AZGrizFan]

I thought UCA wasn't playoff eligible?

[dbackjon]

UCA is not eligible

[MrTitleist]

SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty.. but they still need to beat the two better teams ahead of them.. or at least split to make the bid interesting.

[Col Hogan]

And let's hold off on UMass....we have Richmond on the road next week, and still have JMU, a team I think that is going to be a spoiler the remainder of the season...

[bench]

UCA is not eligible

"Cross them off, then."



Yeah, I remembered Jax St., forgot about UCA

[CatMom]

I think McNeese and SFA. SELA could be a spoiler

[AZGrizFan]

SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty.. but they still need to beat the two better teams ahead of them.. or at least split to make the bid interesting.

SDSU doesn't have a single quality win.

[AZGrizFan]

I think McNeese and SFA. SELA may well be the spoiler in determining the league champion

SELA is officially on my radar as of today.

[bench]

And let's hold off on UMass....we have Richmond on the road next week, and still have JMU, a team I think that is going to be a spoiler the remainder of the season...

They're not a lock, but if UMass beats either Richmond or Madison and wins the rest of their North games like they probably should, they're in.

[dbackjon]

I think McNeese and SFA. SELA may well be the spoiler in determining the league champion

SELA is officially on my radar as of today.

Sep 5 - W vs. TXA&M-Commerce, 41-7
Sep 10 - W vs. Union (KY), 69-20
Sep 19 - L at Ole Miss, 6-52
Sep 26 - L at South Dakota, 13-44
Oct 3 - Open
Oct 10 - W at Texas State, 51-50 OT
Oct 17 - W vs. Sam Houston St, 37-21

So, does that mean that Montana State's win over South Dakota is a quality win?

[Col Hogan]

And let's hold off on UMass....we have Richmond on the road next week, and still have JMU, a team I think that is going to be a spoiler the remainder of the season...

They're not a lock, but if UMass beats either Richmond or Madison and wins the rest of their North games like they probably should, they're in.

I can only hope you are correct...that last week at Delaware was a fluke...because I thought I saw potential in this team...

[bench]

SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty.. but they still need to beat the two better teams ahead of them.. or at least split to make the bid interesting.

Their sked is brutal from here on out — UNI, SIU and Minnesota. SDSU finishing 7-4 is a very real possibility. A win against one of the three plus wins against YSU and W. Illinois should do it, but they've got the worst draw in the Valley and they currently have no resume for an at-large.

[CatMom]

I think McNeese and SFA. SELA may well be the spoiler in determining the league champion

SELA is officially on my radar as of today.

I am betting he is referring to SELA being a perennial bottom dweller and now they have shown a bit of a pulse, so need to be watched...as a possible upset maker. Otherwise, no one would give a damn. Am I wrong here?

[JayJ79]

SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty.. but they still need to beat the two better teams ahead of them.. or at least split to make the bid interesting.

Their sked is brutal from here on out — UNI, SIU and Minnesota. SDSU finishing 7-4 is a very real possibility. A win against one of the three plus wins against YSU and W. Illinois should do it, but they've got the worst draw in the Valley and they currently have no resume for an at-large.

Worst draw??? They play UNI and SIU in Brookings this year (and NDSU as well, which doesn't mean much this year, but most thought the Bison might be somewhat in contention prior to the season). That's pretty favorable if you ask me. But yeah, their toughest games are ahead of them yet.


Would be really interesting if UNI beats SDSU, and SDSU beats SIU (and all three win their other remaining games). All three would be co-champs, with 1-1 records against the other co-champs (1st tiebreak), and no losses to lower conference teams (2nd tiebreak). So it would all come down to who had the highest GPI after the regular season finished. But that's all just a big what-if, and there is alot of football to be played yet.

[Mvemjsunpx]

The likeliest playoff contenders of the moment and expected number of bids by conference:

Big Sky: Two bids — Montana AND NAU OR Montana St. (Schedule victim: Weber)
CAA: Five bids — (North) UNH AND UMass, (South) UR, 'Nova AND W&M (Schedule victim: UD)
MEAC: One bid — SC St.
MVC: Two bids — SIU AND UNI (Schedule victim: SD St.)
OVC: One bid — EKU OR EIU
Patriot: One bid — Colgate OR Holy Cross OR Lafayette
SoCon: One or two bids — Elon AND MAYBE ASU OR Furman (Schedule victims: ASU and Furman)
SLC: Two or three bids — SFA AND McNeese AND/OR SE La. (Schedule victim: SE La.)

Montana State? Really? I mean, I guess they technically control their own destiny, but the likelihood of them actually achieving it seems pretty low based on how they've played. They still have to play EWU & Montana, too.

I think Weber would have a decent shot at 7-4 (7 DI wins, 2 close FBS losses).

I also think a 9-2 FAMU team would have a shot. Bethune-Cookman got in at 9-2 in 2003.

[MrTitleist]

SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty.. but they still need to beat the two better teams ahead of them.. or at least split to make the bid interesting.

SDSU doesn't have a single quality win.

Sure, knock me for SDSU then you mention SELA?? Cmon Az, SELAs schedule is uhh... not good at best. 2 non-counters and a loss to FBS..

[Thumper 76]

SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty.. but they still need to beat the two better teams ahead of them.. or at least split to make the bid interesting.

SDSU doesn't have a single quality win.

SDSU does not have a quality win, but I think they will make the playoffs this year (I hope). If you want to use the quality win department you can just look at UNI. They really only have a quality loss, unless you count mabey MSU a quality win now, but then SDSU would have a good win as well. Both have lost their first real challenge, except SDSU's was away and w/o their starting qb. Granted Cal Poly isn't as good as SIU or anything and the Iowa close game looks better and better as we go on, but if you want to look at making the playoffs that way you can make the same argument against UNI to an extent.

[guinzone]

YSU is still in the hunt, despite having to face SIU, SDSU, and UNI in the next three weeks.

If YSU can win 2/3, they are a likely playoff team.

[AZGrizFan]

SDSU doesn't have a single quality win.

Sure, knock me for SDSU then you mention SELA?? Cmon Az, SELAs schedule is uhh... not good at best. 2 non-counters and a loss to FBS..

Let me explain the difference, Mr. Pinnacle:

Mr. Pinnacle: "SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty."
Mr. AZGrizFan: "SELA is officially on my radar."

Neither have a quality win. See the difference?

[dbackjon]

Sure, knock me for SDSU then you mention SELA?? Cmon Az, SELAs schedule is uhh... not good at best. 2 non-counters and a loss to FBS..

Let me explain the difference, Mr. Pinnacle:

Mr. Pinnacle: "SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty."
Mr. AZGrizFan: "SELA is officially on my radar."

Neither have a quality win. See the difference?

Winning big at Georgia Southern is a semi-quality win (+ for SDSU)
Losing big at South Dakota is not good (-10 for SELA)

AZVANDALFAN and Mr. TopFlite - you may resume your discussion

[AZGrizFan]

Let me explain the difference, Mr. Pinnacle:

Mr. Pinnacle: "SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty."
Mr. AZGrizFan: "SELA is officially on my radar."

Neither have a quality win. See the difference?

Winning big at Georgia Southern is a semi-quality win (+ for SDSU)
Losing big at South Dakota is not good (-10 for SELA)

AZVANDALFAN and Mr. TopFlite - you may resume your discussion

I would agree...the GSU win is looking better and better....however, the difference is between "travesty" and "on my radar"....had I said "SELA not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty", THEN, MR. Pinnacle might have a complaint. As it is, he's just a complainer.

[Gil Dobie]

SDSU not getting into the playoffs would be a travesty.. but they still need to beat the two better teams ahead of them.. or at least split to make the bid interesting.

SDSU doesn't have a single quality win.

They are in a first place tie with SIU in the MVFC, with home games coming against UNI and SIU. We should know in the next few weeks.

[guinzone]

SDSU doesn't have a single quality win.

They are in a first place tie with SIU in the MVFC, with home games coming against UNI and SIU. We should know in the next few weeks.

I may sound like a homer here, but no game is easy in Youngstown either. Travelling from South Dakota to Ohio could be a bitch.

SDSU [07] and NDSU [08] learned that first hand the last two years.

[MrTitleist]

You're dead to me, Az. The kissy face weirded me out too..