Playoff Outlook - 10/11/09

[guinzone]

I want to make this a weekly thread because I think it will be a bit interesting. Just follow as I do it.

Pick the 8 auto-bid's.
Pick the 8 at-larges.
Name 3-4 teams that are on the bubble as of right now.
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Auto-Bid's
Big Sky: Montana [They haven't played all that well this year]
Colonial: Richmond [Big win over JMU]
MEAC: Florida A&M [Let's see how they respond after losing to Miami-FL]
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa [For now it is UNI, but it could be SIU if they beat UNI Saturday]
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky [Despite the loss to TSU, I think they will win it]
Patriot: Colgate [Undefeated]
SoCon: Elon [I don't think it is Appy's year to win the SoCon]
Southland: Stephen F. Austin [Impressive start, nice win over McNeese]

At Large's
Villanova
William & Mary
New Hampshire
South Dakota State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee State
McNeese State
South Carolina State

Bubble's
Youngstown State: Off to a 4-2 start, but play three teams on the two lists above. @ SIU, vs. SDSU, @ UNI. They must win 2/3 to stand a chance.
Delaware: I was VERY tempted to put them in over SCSU, but I don't think the CAA should get 5 teams in.
Appalachian State: Off to a 3-2 start, but they got Elon and Furman ahead.
Furman: Also off to a 3-2 start, but they do have Appy up ahead.
Eastern Illinois: I doubt 3 OVC teams will get in, but it is possible.

I honestly expect Appy or Furman to make it in come the end of the season, but this outlook is for right now, not November. My guess would be Appalachian State makes in in at 8-3.

Post your own predictions and feel free to critique mine.

[SUUTbird]

The CAA in no way deserves to have 5 teams get in, if anything only 3 tops should get in. And i think that the Great West really could get an at large bid if Cal Poly or SUU sweeps the conference.

[AZGrizFan]

The CAA in no way deserves to have 5 teams get in, if anything only 3 tops should get in. And i think that the Great West really could get an at large bid if Cal Poly or SUU sweeps the conference.

The CAA has 2 undefeated teams and two with one loss. Three is a given. Four is a given. Five is the question...but right now that 5th team is Delaware, and they looked pretty fuckin' good yesterday. I think the CAA gets 5 in.

[GoApps70]

U are wrong.....old wise one.
It WILL be Appalachian State ....
Elon has faded late in the season every year since Obama was born in Kenya (couldn't resist).
They have never beat Appalachian since they have been in the SoCon.
Our back up QB beat them year before last.
Their luck runs out when they face the men from Boone.

[Grizalltheway]

I want to make this a weekly thread because I think it will be a bit interesting. Just follow as I do it.

Pick the 8 auto-bid's.
Pick the 8 at-larges.
Name 3-4 teams that are on the bubble as of right now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Auto-Bid's
Big Sky: Montana [They haven't played all that well this year]
Colonial: Richmond [Big win over JMU]
MEAC: Florida A&M [Let's see how they respond after losing to Miami-FL]
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa [For now it is UNI, but it could be SIU if they beat UNI Saturday]
Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky [Despite the loss to TSU, I think they will win it]
Patriot: Colgate [Undefeated]
SoCon: Elon [I don't think it is Appy's year to win the SoCon]
Southland: Stephen F. Austin [Impressive start, nice win over McNeese]

At Large's
Villanova
William & Mary
New Hampshire
South Dakota State
Southern Illinois
Tennessee State
McNeese State
South Carolina State

Bubble's
Youngstown State: Off to a 4-2 start, but play three teams on the two lists above. @ SIU, vs. SDSU, @ UNI. They must win 2/3 to stand a chance.
Delaware: I was VERY tempted to put them in over SCSU, but I don't think the CAA should get 5 teams in.
Appalachian State: Off to a 3-2 start, but they got Elon and Furman ahead.
Furman: Also off to a 3-2 start, but they do have Appy up ahead.
Eastern Illinois: I doubt 3 OVC teams will get in, but it is possible.

I honestly expect Appy or Furman to make it in come the end of the season, but this outlook is for right now, not November. My guess would be Appalachian State makes in in at 8-3.

Post your own predictions and feel free to critique mine.

WAFJ. How you could not even CONSIDER a second team from the Big Sky is beyond me.

[SUUTbird]

The CAA in no way deserves to have 5 teams get in, if anything only 3 tops should get in. And i think that the Great West really could get an at large bid if Cal Poly or SUU sweeps the conference.

The CAA has 2 undefeated teams and two with one loss. Three is a given. Four is a given. Five is the question...but right now that 5th team is Delaware, and they looked pretty ****' good yesterday. I think the CAA gets 5 in.

Yeah but a few teams still have to play each other, i am not saying they dont deserve to get in based on records but no one conference should get 5 teams in the playoffs.

[GoApps70]

"Appalachian State: Off to a 3-2 start, but they got Elon and Furman ahead."

BUT....that's a GOOD thing for us Mountaineers of App State.

[JMU DJ]

WAFJ. How you could not even CONSIDER a second team from the Big Sky is beyond me.

I was thinking the same, if you have Tenn St on your bubble... you got to have a ton more teams on the bubble too (Weber, NAU, EWU from the Big Sky alone... you could put more on the list from other conferences too). Still think it's to early for these outlooks... another week or two and we'll have a better picture.

[guinzone]

Sorry about that. That was not by design, just forgot to add another Big Sky to the bubble.

[93henfan]

The CAA in no way deserves to have 5 teams get in, if anything only 3 tops should get in. And i think that the Great West really could get an at large bid if Cal Poly or SUU sweeps the conference.

The CAA has 2 undefeated teams and two with one loss. Three is a given. Four is a given. Five is the question...but right now that 5th team is Delaware, and they looked pretty ****' good yesterday. I think the CAA gets 5 in.

If you're banking on Delaware being the fifth best in the CAA, then CAA only gets 4 in.

We only have one loss to give and still have JMU (not the JMU of recent history but still dangerous), @ Navy and @ Nova. Going 2-1 there is a lot to ask. And that's assuming we don't trip over Hofstra or Towson. If Vegas ruled, Delaware would go 3-2 the rest of the way and miss the playoffs with only 6 D-I wins.

Gut feel right now is Richmond, UNH, Nova, and W&M are the only sure things and they will represent the CAA very well.

[dbackjon]

Will do analysis tomorrow. Don't see two OVC and two MEAC teams in.

[ASUG8]

It's a shame to not see JMU on your list - I'm not a fan, but they have a strong program in a strong CAA this season..

[guinzone]

It's a shame to not see JMU on your list - I'm not a fan, but they have a strong program in a strong CAA this season..

JMU is 2-3 and they got Nova next week. They may have been in those losses, but they still lost. They realistically must win out to make the playoffs.... Once again I do not see 5 CAA teams making it in.

Like I said, they got Nova, then a very good William and Mary, and then another very good Delaware team, with the last two being on the road.

Like the JMU announcers said, the CAA kills their own.

[dbackjon]

Every conference kills there own. CAA less so because they don't play each each other

[DukeJack]

It's a shame to not see JMU on your list - I'm not a fan, but they have a strong program in a strong CAA this season..

Richmond, Villanova, William & Mary, Delaware, Towson, JMU

This is the current order of the CAA South. We are below Towson; how, based on our body of work at this time, do we deserve to be in the playoff picture? Yes, we lost to Maryland in OT, a better kicking game would have won the game in regulation. Yes, we were driving to the winning score yesterday when our freshmen quarterback fumbled the game away. But this isn't the NHL, there isn't an extra column for OTL. We don't get style points for losing, it all counts the same.

The Hofstra game was our worst regular season loss to an FCS school since App in '06. We are facing the meat of our schedule, Villanova then William & Mary and Delaware, the latter two coming off their bye weeks and hosting us. We play UMass at Amherst in November. The playoffs start now, a Nova win would leave us 2-4 and likely on the outside looking in come November.

Every conference kills there own. CAA less so because they don't play each each other

If you want to say that it benefits the northern teams, usually UNH, no arguments there, but to expand that to the whole conference is asinine. The CAA South absolutely kills its own, Richmond, Nova, JMU, and Delaware have traditionally been very strong and highly ranked. The Tribe have been respectable historically with Towson being cannon fodder, but that is just a byproduct of the strength of the others in conference. For whatever reason, the North winner can usually be picked from UNH or UMass with Maine usually fielding a competitive team, every few years one that will challenge for an at-large.

And isn't that the point of a playoff? The regular season is inherently different for each team and conference, they are unbalanced and unequal. If a team is strong enough to win the majority of its games and earn a bid to the postseason, then they have an opportunity to show they are the best, regardless of how they did in conference.

[houndawg]

It's a shame to not see JMU on your list - I'm not a fan, but they have a strong program in a strong CAA this season..

Richmond, Villanova, William & Mary, Delaware, Towson, JMU

This is the current order of the CAA South. We are below Towson; how, based on our body of work at this time, do we deserve to be in the playoff picture? Yes, we lost to Maryland in OT, a better kicking game would have won the game in regulation. Yes, we were driving to the winning score yesterday when our freshmen quarterback fumbled the game away. But this isn't the NHL, there isn't an extra column for OTL. We don't get style points for losing, it all counts the same.

The Hofstra game was our worst regular season loss to an FCS school since App in '06. We are facing the meat of our schedule, Villanova then William & Mary and Delaware, the latter two coming off their bye weeks and hosting us. We play UMass at Amherst in November. The playoffs start now, a Nova win would leave us 2-4 and likely on the outside looking in come November.

Every conference kills there own. CAA less so because they don't play each each other

If you want to say that it benefits the northern teams, usually UNH, no arguments there, but to expand that to the whole conference is asinine. The CAA South absolutely kills its own, Richmond, Nova, JMU, and Delaware have traditionally been very strong and highly ranked. The Tribe have been respectable historically with Towson being cannon fodder, but that is just a byproduct of the strength of the others in conference. For whatever reason, the North winner can usually be picked from UNH or UMass with Maine usually fielding a competitive team, every few years one that will challenge for an at-large.

And isn't that the point of a playoff? The regular season is inherently different for each team and conference, they are unbalanced and unequal. If a team is strong enough to win the majority of its games and earn a bid to the postseason, then they have an opportunity to show they are the best, regardless of how they did in conference.

Split the CAA North from the South, give each an autobid, put Delaware in the CAA North, and Rhode Island in the CAA South. Schedule the PFL for OOC.

[BlueHen86]

The CAA has 2 undefeated teams and two with one loss. Three is a given. Four is a given. Five is the question...but right now that 5th team is Delaware, and they looked pretty ****' good yesterday. I think the CAA gets 5 in.

Yeah but a few teams still have to play each other, i am not saying they dont deserve to get in based on records but no one conference should get 5 teams in the playoffs.

Why? Don't you want the best teams in the playoffs? If the CAA (or any other conference) has 5 deserving teams, they should get in.

I think the CAA will get 4 teams in this year: Richmond, UNH, Villanova and either UMass or W&M.

[BlueHen86]

Richmond, Villanova, William & Mary, Delaware, Towson, JMU

This is the current order of the CAA South. We are below Towson; how, based on our body of work at this time, do we deserve to be in the playoff picture? Yes, we lost to Maryland in OT, a better kicking game would have won the game in regulation. Yes, we were driving to the winning score yesterday when our freshmen quarterback fumbled the game away. But this isn't the NHL, there isn't an extra column for OTL. We don't get style points for losing, it all counts the same.

The Hofstra game was our worst regular season loss to an FCS school since App in '06. We are facing the meat of our schedule, Villanova then William & Mary and Delaware, the latter two coming off their bye weeks and hosting us. We play UMass at Amherst in November. The playoffs start now, a Nova win would leave us 2-4 and likely on the outside looking in come November.





If you want to say that it benefits the northern teams, usually UNH, no arguments there, but to expand that to the whole conference is asinine. The CAA South absolutely kills its own, Richmond, Nova, JMU, and Delaware have traditionally been very strong and highly ranked. The Tribe have been respectable historically with Towson being cannon fodder, but that is just a byproduct of the strength of the others in conference. For whatever reason, the North winner can usually be picked from UNH or UMass with Maine usually fielding a competitive team, every few years one that will challenge for an at-large.

And isn't that the point of a playoff? The regular season is inherently different for each team and conference, they are unbalanced and unequal. If a team is strong enough to win the majority of its games and earn a bid to the postseason, then they have an opportunity to show they are the best, regardless of how they did in conference.

Split the CAA North from the South, give each an autobid, put Delaware in the CAA North, and Rhode Island in the CAA South. Schedule the PFL for OOC.

In that case: Delaware, UNH, UMass, Villanova, Richmond and William & Mary all would likely make the playoffs this year. Works for me since I don't think the Hens get in this year under the current format.

[T-Dog]

I have a feeling one of the first round games will be Florida A&M @ App St.

The MEAC has a shot of getting two teams in, especially if the CAA gets 4 and the SoCon gets 2.

[93henfan]

put Delaware in the CAA North

Music to my ears! That would be almost as good as putting us in the Big Sky.

[bluehenbillk]

The CAA doesn't deserve 5, but the MEAC & OVC deserve 2 each? And the OVC's best team is ineligible??

[pantherrob82]

No way the MEAC gets two. Loser of the SCSU-FAMU has no quality wins.

[houndawg]

Split the CAA North from the South, give each an autobid, put Delaware in the CAA North, and Rhode Island in the CAA South. Schedule the PFL for OOC.

In that case: Delaware, UNH, UMass, Villanova, Richmond and William & Mary all would likely make the playoffs this year. Works for me since I don't think the Hens get in this year under the current format.

Not UMass, they've been exposed.

[houndawg]

put Delaware in the CAA North

Music to my ears! That would be almost as good as putting us in the Big Sky.

[SuperHornet]

I've revised my outlook yet again.

The Griz will get an at-large. The BSC auto-bid is going to the Sacred City.

BTW, the Big South still doesn't have an auto-bid? Liberty has GOT to get in this year.